Politics
Why Biden is getting little credit for the economy, especially in California
As President Biden struggles to sell Bidenomics to skeptical voters, he’s facing the all-too-real consequences of stubbornly higher inflation, but he’s also battling human psychology.
And both of those factors may be especially strong in California.
Most economists agree that the American economy during Biden’s presidency has made a remarkable recovery from the pandemic. And it continues to outperform expectations, even if California isn’t doing quite as well. But polls have consistently shown that the public by and large holds a negative view of the economy and, by extension, Biden’s handling of it.
While partisan politics, pandemic hangover and other factors have colored people’s attitudes, experts say inflation appears to be the single biggest economic albatross for Biden.
He entered office with an approval rating of 57%, but in Gallup’s latest poll in March that number was 40%, with his handling of the economy perceived as one of his biggest weaknesses.
This even though the rate of inflation has come down significantly from earlier highs and the incomes of Americans, on average, have risen to equal or often exceed the higher costs for most goods and services.
On Wednesday the government reported that inflation, as measured by U.S. consumer prices, edged up in March to 3.5% from a year ago. It was a little higher than expected, driven partly by bigger price increases for transportation, electricity and medical services. Food inflation was subdued, but shelter and energy prices are still running a bit too hot
Although the rate of inflation has declined since hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, it’s still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, which could delay a much hoped-for cut in interest rates.
What’s more, experts say the slowdown in inflation isn’t what most people notice. Nor do they seem as relieved by the seemingly encouraging decline in inflation from 2022 as professional economists are. After all, it’s not that prices have fallen dramatically; they’re just not rising as fast as before.
That’s where basic elements of human nature come in, some economists and other analysts say: Consumers instinctively pay more attention to the dollars they have to shell out than they do to the increases in their paychecks.
That’s especially true when the purchases are for everyday items such as gasoline, for which prices in California are higher than elsewhere in the United States.
Today, U.S. consumers are paying 20% more for milk, about 30% more for bread and more than 50% more for eggs than they were in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report Wednesday.
Rents are up more than 20% from pre-pandemic levels and electricity costs about 30% more.
For Californians, even with wage gains matching or exceeding consumer price increases, higher inflation may have an even stronger real and psychological impact because the state is so much more expensive to begin with.
“They worry whether inflation is coming back,” said Mark Baldassare, the statewide survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. “It creates a new set of circumstances and anxiety in California, where housing and the cost of living is a major concern, especially for lower-income but also middle-income and younger Californians.”
In a statewide survey he conducted last fall, Baldassare found that a growing percentage of Californians were “not too happy” (26% compared with 20% in 2011 and 13% in 1998). And among the groups who are the least happy: 18-to-34-year-olds; renters; and those with household incomes of $40,000 or less.
Nationwide, prices for all goods and services have jumped about 20% over the last four years. And it’s been an especially startling jolt to many consumers because the vast majority of them had never experienced anything like it in their adult lives.
The last time inflation was at or near double-digits was in the early 1980s, and for most of the last 30 years it’s been close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“Part of the story is not just that we’ve had high inflation, but we’ve had high inflation with a generation that’s ill-equipped to deal with it,” said Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. “Young people today might think prices have risen by 20% and no one’s ever going to make me whole.”
But, in fact, Wolfers noted, gains in wages and salaries, on average, have actually outpaced inflation since the pandemic, with lower-income workers seeing the highest percentage gains.
Older people who went through substantial inflation before may have learned that it usually turns out to be a temporary problem: For at least the last half-century, when the cost of living has risen sharply, so have workers’ incomes, though not immediately.
Older generations understand the dynamic: “Inflation takes away with higher prices and then it gives back with higher wages,” Wolfers said.
In California, workers on average earned $1,595 a week in the third quarter of 2023, the latest available data from BLS. That’s 23% higher than the same quarter in 2019.
And it’s about five percentage points higher than the increase in prices over a similar period in California, based on data from the state’s Department of Finance.
But even though average paychecks have now matched or exceeded price increases — meaning most consumers’ purchasing power has not been eroded, Wolfers and other economists say — that’s not the way people process things.
When prices go up sharply, people get upset, thinking it unfair and unjust, and looking at the government or someone else to blame. But if their wages go up by just as much, people tend to “externalize” the increase, feeling they earned it, although in reality the bigger paycheck is largely the result of higher prices — and the resulting ability of employers to pay their employees more.
That psychology presents a big challenge for Biden, since it takes time for consumers to get over what they’ve internalized about high inflation. And although California will probably not be in play in November’s presidential balloting, the downcast mood of many residents due to inflation may only be magnified because the state’s economy has been lagging behind the nation.
Between February 2020 and February 2024, California’s payroll jobs have increased by 1.7%, half of the national job growth rate. The unemployment rate in California in February was 5.3%, compared with 3.9% for the U.S as a whole, although the state Finance Department’s chief economist, Somjita Mitra, said California’s share of long-term unemployed is comparatively much smaller.
The latest survey of consumer confidence by the Conference Board shows California significantly trailing other big states such as Florida, Texas, and New York.
And there are fresh signs that more California consumers are struggling financially. The share of credit card delinquencies, for example, rose in December to the highest level since late 2009 around the time of the Great Recession, according to the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley.
“In California, the credit trends are deteriorating; they’re not headed in a good direction,” said its executive director, Evan White.
Household surveys by the Census Bureau, most recently in February and March, found that Californians are struggling more with housing finances and paying for usual living expenses than the national average. And a significantly larger share of Californians than most other states reported to the census that they had changed their driving behavior due to the cost of gas.
Gasoline prices in both the U.S. and California are up about 29% from February 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But the average price for a gallon of gas in California was $4.83 last month, compared with the national average of $3.45.
Gas prices have been rising again in recent weeks, and if that continues it could be another big impediment for Biden, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
The other key economic factor that Zandi thinks could sway some voters is whether interest rates come down.
For homeowners, higher inflation has meant higher home prices too. But renters, particularly those in their prime home-buying years, in their 30s and 40s, have felt locked out of the market due to high inflation and mortgage rates — particularly in pricey California.
“That really undermines their thinking about the economy and their own financial health,” Zandi said.
Politics
EXCLUSIVE: ICE says El Paso detention facility will stay open under new contractor after $1.2B deal scrapped
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EXCLUSIVE: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said Camp East Montana in El Paso, Texas will remain open and is undergoing an operational upgrade, Fox News Digital has learned.
“Camp East Montana is NOT closing, quite the opposite,” an ICE spokesperson exclusively told Fox News Digital Tuesday.
“Rather, ICE has contracted with a new provider following Secretary Noem’s termination of the old contract inherited from the Department of War. ICE is always looking at ways to improve our detention facilities to ensure we are providing the best care to illegal aliens in our custody.”
Camp East Montana is photographed Friday, March 6, 2026, in El Paso, Texas. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The spokesperson said the new contract will allow the facility to maintain what the agency described as the “highest detention standards” while expanding oversight.
According to ICE, the new contractor will also provide increased on-site medical care, additional staffing and a “PRECISE quality assurance surveillance plan.”
The agency said the updated agreement also strengthens ICE’s direct oversight of operations at the El Paso-area facility.
“Far from closing, Camp East Montana is upgrading,” the spokesperson said.
El Paso immigration facility faces scrutiny but ICE says Camp East Montana is upgrading, not closing, after the $1.2 billion contract termination. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The news that the facility will remain open comes after The Washington Post reported that the facility could face closure amid scrutiny over operations.
A document was distributed to ICE staff, the Post reports, indicated that the agency was drafting a letter to terminate the facility’s $1.2 billion contract at an unspecified date.
ICE officials, however, characterized the contract termination as a deliberate effort by Noem to raise standards and improve services.
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Camp East Montana is photographed Friday, March 6, 2026, in El Paso, Texas, as a bus enters the detention center. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The facility, located at Fort Bliss in Texas, has been used to house thousands of detainees as part of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.
ICE did not immediately provide details on the identity of the new contractor or the timeline for full implementation.
WASHINGTON — Russia is emerging as one of the few early economic beneficiaries of the war with Iran, as disruptions to energy infrastructure drive up demand for Russian exports and the world casts its gaze to the Middle East and away from Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
The U.S. and its European counterparts slapped severe sanctions on Russia in March 2022, barely a month into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The effect was a stranglehold on Russia’s exports, depriving Putin’s war effort of at least $500 billion, experts say. But over the last week, as President Trump’s war in the Middle East choked energy markets worldwide, the White House began easing its restrictions on Moscow.
“It is traitorous conduct for you to help Russia,” California Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance) said on X, demanding the Trump administration reverse course. “Russia is giving intelligence info to Iran that helps Iran target American forces.”
Crude droplets rained over Tehran after Israeli airstrikes decimated oil depots, draping the Iranian capital in a dense smog. Iranian counterattacks have also targeted refineries and oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Crude oil prices have surged, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but ceased, sending energy importers in search of alternate sources.
Those spikes are giving Russia, one of the world’s largest oil and gas exporters, a rare advantage. After spending a decade as the world’s most sanctioned nation over his aggression in Ukraine, Putin is finally starting to regain some leverage in global markets.
“In the current economic situation, if we refocus now on those markets that need increased supplies, we can gain a foothold there,” Putin said at a meeting at the Kremlin on Monday, according to Russian state media. “It’s important for Russian energy companies to take advantage of the current situation.”
On March 4, the Treasury Department issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. The appeal by the Trump administration was described as a way to ease demand for Mideast oil, but was criticized as a reversal of sanctions placed against Putin meant to deny him the capital needed to fund his occupation of eastern Ukraine.
Now, Moscow is poised to press that advantage further, after Trump said Monday he will further lift sanctions on oil-producing countries to ease the trade friction and reintroduce additional oil and gas supplies. The only countries with U.S. oil sanctions are Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
“So, we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump said at a news conference at his golf club in Doral, Fla. “Then, who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on — they’ll be so much peace.”
The surprise concession to Moscow comes as reports suggest Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. personnel.
Trump’s announcement followed an unscheduled hourlong call with Putin about the situation in the Middle East.
The war has also set the stage for Russia to make gains in Ukraine, as hostilities draw the global spotlight away from Kyiv and its struggle to hold back the bigger Russian army. U.S.-brokered talks between the two adversaries have been sidelined as Washington shifts focus to its war in Iran.
“At the moment, the partners’ priority and all attention are focused on the situation around Iran,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X. “We see that the Russians are now trying to manipulate the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region to the benefit of their aggression.”
Putin is unlikely to intervene militarily on Iran’s behalf, according to Robert English, an international foreign policy expert at USC. Instead, Putin is expected to play his position carefully, reap the economic rewards, and keep focused firmly on Ukraine at a time when key air defense systems are diverted from Ukraine to the Persian Gulf.
“Russia is winning the Iran-U.S.-Israel war, at least so far. Oil and natural gas prices have soared, filling Putin’s Ukraine war chest,” he said. “Russia is gathering forces for a big spring offensive in Eastern Ukraine, and it’s not even front-page news.”
Ukraine has dispatched drone interceptors and ordered its anti-drone experts to pivot from their war with Russia to help Western allies help intercept Iranian attacks. Zelensky’s allegiance may not pay off, English said.
“When will Ukraine see the benefits of helping the U.S. with anti-drone technology? No time soon, apparently,” he said.
Even several weeks of interruption in Gulf energy supplies could bring the largest windfall to Russia, the Associated Press reported, citing energy analysts.
The economic turmoil caused by the war has exposed vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy system, particularly its lingering dependence on Russian fuel.
Despite sanctions, the European Union remains a major purchaser of Russian natural gas and crude oil. Russian gas accounted for approximately 19% of E.U. gas imports in 2025. Allied Europeans have agreed to completely stop importing Russian liquefied natural gas, oil and pipeline gas by late 2027.
Putin expressed no desire Monday to rescue the European market now that U.S.-Israeli escalations and Iranian retaliation have choked oil production and shipping. The Russian president instead proposed to divert volumes away from the European market “to more promising areas” like the Asia-Pacific region, Slovakia and Hungary, which he said were “reliable counterparties.”
European leaders have been criticized for being “stunned, sidelined, and disunited” since hostilities began in late February. Excluded from the initial military planning by the U.S. and Israel, Europe entered the conflict with gas storage at only 30% capacity, the lowest levels in years. Instead of bold action, English said, European leaders have quarreled over internal divisions and rivalries.
“Sky-high energy prices are the underlying cause of many of these frictions, as Europe struggles now more than ever to find affordable alternatives to the cheap Russian petroleum,” English said.
Antonio Costa, president of the European Council, told European leaders in Brussels on Tuesday that rising energy prices and the world’s shifting attention risk strengthening the Kremlin at a critical moment in the war in Ukraine.
“So far, there is only one winner in this war,” Costa said. “Russia.”
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President Donald Trump is taking his feud with Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., to the libertarian lawmaker’s home turf on Wednesday.
Trump is expected to hold an event in Hebron, Kentucky, on Wednesday, the Republican Party of Kentucky announced on social media Monday. It’s located in the northern part of the state’s 4th Congressional District, which Massie represents.
Massie’s primary rival, Ed Gallrein, will attend the Hebron event, his campaign confirmed to Fox News Digital on Tuesday, while deferring all other questions on the matter to the White House.
Massie himself will miss the event due to a previously scheduled official engagement, his spokesperson told Fox News Digital.
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President Donald Trump will be visiting Rep. Thomas Massie’s congressional district on Wednesday. (Win McNamee/Getty Images; Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
When asked about the visit, White House spokeswoman Liz Huston told Fox News Digital, “President Trump will visit the great states of Ohio and Kentucky on Wednesday to tout his economic victories and detail his Administration’s aggressive, ongoing efforts to lower prices and make America more affordable.”
The president has thrown his considerable influence behind Gallrein to unseat Massie after the GOP lawmaker publicly defied Trump on multiple occasions.
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Massie most recently was one of two House Republicans to vote to stop Trump’s joint operation in Iran with Israel, though the legislation was successfully blocked by the majority of GOP lawmakers and a handful of Democrats.
Ed Gallrein, left, seen with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House. (Ed Gallrein congressional campaign)
He was also one of two Republicans to vote against Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” last year.
Trump in turn has hurled a slew of personal attacks against Massie, including calling him “weak and pathetic” in a statement endorsing Gallrein in October.
“He only votes against the Republican Party, making life very easy for the Radical Left. Unlike ‘lightweight’ Massie, a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly, CAPTAIN ED GALLREIN IS A WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN,” Trump posted on Truth Social at the time, one of numerous criticisms targeting the Kentucky Republican through the years.
He called Massie the “worst Republican congressman” in July amid Massie’s bipartisan push to force the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release its files on Jeffrey Epstein.
Then-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, and Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat from California, during a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
But Massie has so far appeared to defy political gravity despite making political enemies out of both Trump and House GOP leaders.
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He handily defeated multiple primary challengers in 2024 and 2022, despite public feuds with Trump, and has served his district since 2012.
Gallrein is a retired Navy SEAL and farmer who launched his campaign days after Trump made his endorsement. Their primary election day is May 19.
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