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'Last chance saloon': UK finance minister expected to pledge pre-election tax cuts

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'Last chance saloon': UK finance minister expected to pledge pre-election tax cuts

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said earlier this month the U.K. would not enter a recession this year.

Hannah Mckay | Reuters

LONDON — Economists expect U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt to use a small fiscal windfall to deliver a modest package of tax cuts at his Spring Budget on Wednesday.

Heading into what will likely be the Conservative government’s last fiscal event before the country’s upcoming General Election, Hunt is under pressure to offer a sweetener to voters as his party trails the main opposition Labour Party by more than 20 points across all national polls.

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But he must also navigate the constraints of fragile public finances and a stagnant economy that recently entered a modest technical recession.

On the upside, inflation has fallen faster than anticipated and market expectations for interest rates are well below where they were going into Hunt’s Autumn Statement in November.

The Treasury pre-announced plans over the weekend to deliver up to £1.8 billion ($2.3 billion) worth of benefits by boosting public sector productivity, including releasing police time for more frontline work.

The Independent Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that returning to levels of pre-pandemic productivity could save the Treasury up to £20 billion per year.

Hunt will also announce £360 million in funding to boost research and development (R&D) and manufacturing projects across the life sciences, automotive and aerospace sectors, the Treasury said Monday.

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However, the big questions over tax cuts remain heading into Wednesday’s statement.

Increased fiscal headroom

“On balance, we think Chancellor Hunt’s fiscal headroom will have likely increased – but only marginally, and nowhere close to what he had in the Autumn Statement (owing largely to the fall in expected debt costs),” Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja said in a research note Thursday.

The German lender estimates that the government’s fiscal headroom will have grown from around £13 billion to around £18.5 billion, and that tax cuts are “very likely” the first port of call. Raja suggested the finance minister will err on the side of caution in loosening fiscal policy, favoring supply side support over boosting demand.

“Supply side measures are more likely in our view, particularly with the Bank of England more amenable to loosening monetary policy,” Raja said.

“Therefore, tax cuts to national insurance contributions (NICs) and changes to child benefits are more likely to come in the Spring Budget (in contrast to earlier expectations of income tax cuts).”

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A substantial cut to National Insurance was the highlight of Hunt’s Autumn Statement, though economists were quick to point out that its benefit to payers would be more than erased by the effect of existing freezes on personal income tax thresholds — known as the “fiscal drag.”

The U.K. National Insurance is a tax on workers’ income and employers’ profits to pay for state social security benefits, including the state pension.

Raja also suggested an extension of the government’s existing freeze on fuel duty remains a possibility, and that some spending cuts will likely be used to partially offset a loosening of fiscal policy.

In total, Deutsche Bank expects Hunt to deliver net loosening of £15 billion over the coming fiscal year, dropping to around £12.5 billion in the medium-term.

“The outlook for the public finances remains precarious. Slight changes to the macroeconomic outlook could result in big shifts to the public finances. The Chancellor continues to walk a fine line between managing his fiscal rules now and rising austerity later,” Raja said.

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“To be sure, big questions on the public finances remain – including whether spending cuts, or limited rises in some areas, remain realistic to tackle the rising strain in public services, and the Government’s own ambitions around net-zero, defence, and overseas development spending.”

BNP Paribas economists expect a more modest package of tax cuts worth around £10 billion across the 2024/25 fiscal year, and projected that the government will start the year with a fiscal windfall of around £11 billion.

Economist shares three troubling takeaways from latest UK economic data

The French bank agreed that the reductions will be aimed at stimulating labor supply, with “little impact on inflation and thus the Bank of England.”

“Our base case is that the government will spend GBP10bn of the near-term fiscal windfall and use the additional medium-term fiscal space to cut personal taxes,” economists Matthew Swannell and Dani Stoilova said in a research note entitled “last-chance saloon.”

They also expect the Treasury to postpone the March 2024 rise in fuel duty for another 12 months, at a cost of £3.7 billion a year, and to introduce a permanent 1 pence reduction in the basic rate of income tax at a cost of between £6 billion and £7.35 billion per year.

“The overall effect of this policy package would be to leave medium-term fiscal headroom roughly back where it started at GBP12.7bn,” they added.

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“With the Conservative party trailing in the opinion polls and the Budget possibly the last opportunity to loosen fiscal policy before a general election, we expect Chancellor Hunt to once again, at least, spend any additional fiscal space available to him.”

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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath

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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath



Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
















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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


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Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath







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How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance

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How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance

Around three years ago, Charles Giancarlo, CEO of data platform Pure Storage, came back from Davos and asked his sustainability team to look into an idea he’d encountered at the meeting: Impact accounting, a method for integrating emissions and other externalities into company balance sheets. 

The idea had been slowly picking up adherents in Europe for around a decade, but Pure Storage, which rebranded this month to Everpure, would go on to become the first U.S. company to join the Value Balancing Alliance (VBA), a group of 30 or so companies developing the approach. Trellis checked in last week with Everpure and the VBA for an update.

How does impact accounting work?

At the heart of the approach are a set of “valuation factors,” developed by third-party experts, that are used to convert activity data for emissions, water use, air pollution and other externalities into dollar figures that can be integrated into balance sheets. In the case of emissions, for example, the VBA uses $220 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, a figure based on the estimated social impact of rising greenhouse gases levels. 

At Everpure, one long-term goal is to have cost centers be aware of the dollar impact of relevant externalities. After an initial focus on identifying and collecting the most material data, the team is now rolling out a dashboard containing several years of impact accounting numbers.

“It’s catered to different personas,” explained Adrienne Uphoff, Everpure’s ESG regulations and impact accounting manager. Finance was an initial use case, with product managers also on the roadmap. “You can compare it to financial numbers to really understand the impact intensity.”

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What value does the approach bring?

“The essence of impact accounting is that you’re translating all these different metrics in the sustainability space into the language the decision makers understand,” said Christian Heller, the VBA’s CEO. “Everyone understands what you’re talking about, and you get a sense of the magnitude of your impact and the risks and opportunities.”

This has allowed Everpure to calculate what Uphoff called the “environmental costs of goods sold” and to estimate the impact of circular strategies, such as refurbishing hardware. The analysis reveals “impact savings across the full value chain across five different environmental topics all in a single dollar unit,” she said. 

Analyses like that can then be shared with customers and used to distinguish Everpure from competitors. “The long-term winners in this space are going to be those that can perform against sustainability goals,” said Kathy Mulvany, Everpure’s global head of sustainability. “Impact accounting gives us a way to bring comparability, so companies can understand how they’re truly stacking up.”

What does it take to implement impact accounting?

A great deal of technical work goes into creating valuation factors, but the system is designed so that outside experts create the numbers and hand them to sustainability professionals for use. Still, not every company will have the in-house environmental data that is also needed. Many companies have been collecting emissions data for five years or more, for example, but detailed datasets for water use are less common.

Internal teams also need to be familiar with the concepts. “One of the key learnings from our impact accounting implementation is that the socialization curve is longer than you expect,” said Uphoff. “Attaching monetary values on externalities introduces new metrics and mental models, and that can naturally make people a little nervous at first. It takes time and dialogue for teams to build confidence in how to interpret this new lens on performance.” 

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What’s next?

In the early days of impact accounting, companies and consultancies worked independently on different methodologies. Now that work is coalescing, said Heller. The International Standards Organization will start work on a standard this summer, he added, and the VBA is having conversations with the IFRS Foundation, which creates international financial reporting standards.

The approach may also be integrated into mandatory disclosure standards. Heller noted that the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive mentions the potential benefits of companies putting a dollar figure on some environmental impacts. “It’s the next evolutionary step of any kind of sustainability disclosure regulations,” he said.

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2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues

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2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues

Chicago Public Schools is shutting down two Aspira charter high schools by the middle of the year, following financial issues over the past year. 

School leaders are calling the move “unprecedented.”  

Students at the Aspira Business and Finance High School at 2989 N. Milwaukee Ave. in Avondale held a walkout right outside of Aspira after the CEO said they only have enough money to stay open for the next four to five weeks.

Students wanted their questions answered as to why they’re being transferred to other schools.

Angelina Mota is a senior at the high school and said she is concerned about her future.

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“It’s very difficult, especially for us, hearing that credits might not go all the way with us. That our graduation might just be taken back. It’s very disappointing,” she said.

This is the first time a CPS school will close before the end of the school year. Both Aspira and CPS said the charter network won’t have the funds to stay open past April.

“The burden on our seniors has got to be… they don’t give a damn about the kids. The seniors,” Aspira of Illinois CEO Edgar Lopez said while fighting back his emotions.

The school is facing a $2.9 million deficit, impacting 540 students and dozens of staff.

CPS said they have already given more than $2.5 million to the charter school to help sustain operations. They said under Illinois law, it reached the legal limit of funding it can provide.

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This has been a year-long effort in compliance with state charter school law.

In a statement, CPS said, “Aspira has not submitted required documentation, including evidence of funding to support operations through this school year.”

The documents CPS said are overdue include the school’s fiscal year 25 financial audit, general ledger, and payroll.

“We’re not hiding nothing. The financial documents that they were asking for, Jose told them, we’ll have them to you by Friday. Then they send a letter by Thursday. They didn’t even give us a chance,” Lopez said.

CPS said they’re initiating this due to the lack of financial transparency and solvency.

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“We know we don’t want to go anywhere else because we’re used to the routine we have here,” said student Arichely Molina.

“Please let us (stay) open. at least until we graduate,” Mota said.

CPS said their main goal is to ensure the kids have a safety net as they transition to another school. 

The second school is located at 3986 W. Barry Ave., also in the Avondale neighborhood.

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