The College Football Playoff’s expansion to 12 teams has rewired my thinking on whether a team can qualify.
In the four-team playoff, qualification boiled down to avoiding losses – with the exception of 2023 Florida State’s snub. When I considered in the preseason whether a team was playoff material, I thought: Is this team good enough to finish with one loss or fewer? If I thought it could, then it was a playoff contender. If not, then it wasn’t.
With 12 playoff spots, an SEC or Big Ten team doesn’t need to go 13-0 to make the playoff. Not even 12-1 or 11-1. Now, I’m thinking: Is a team’s schedule easy enough for it to finish 10-2?
Scheduling will be more important than ever to a playoff quest. Say you’re in the Big Ten and your schedule lacks Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Penn State. You’ve got a leg up on playoff qualification. Rutgers fits into this category. So, Rutgers as a playoff contender? Um, no. I have my limits. But, you get the idea.
I recently predicted the SEC will claim five spots in the inaugural 12-team playoff.
The qualifiers? Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri.
Alabama and Tennessee headline my close-but-just-missed list.
Why these five qualifiers? Do I think they’re the five best teams in the conference? Not exactly. I’d have Alabama in the top five of my SEC power rankings.
But, in Kalen DeBoer’s first season, Alabama will face one of the SEC’s most rugged schedules. Alabama’s schedule draw is tougher than that of Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri. If not for that, I’d place the Crimson Tide within my qualifying quintet.
Georgia and Texas are built to be the SEC’s best teams in 2024. Georgia must navigate a brutal schedule, with games against Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee and Ole Miss, plus Clemson in the nonconference. The Bulldogs can handle it. Kirby Smart once again assembled one of the nation’s most talented rosters. Having proven quarterback Carson Beck helps, too. Georgia’s scheduling minefield doesn’t suit undefeated ambitions, but the Bulldogs should emerge from that gantlet at 10-2 or better and claim a playoff spot.
Texas’ schedule is tough, too, highlighted by games against Georgia, Michigan and Oklahoma. Steve Sarkisian used transfers to address needs after last year’s 12-win season. The Longhorns are pretty loaded. They can reach the playoff for a second straight year.
Once I navigate past Georgia and Texas, I start leaning more heavily on schedule analysis to influence my SEC playoff picks.
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Shake up Missouri’s schedule, and the Tigers would be fortunate to reach eight wins. But, Missouri will enjoy the SEC’s easiest schedule, including an enviable dose of Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas and South Carolina. The Tigers haven’t had it this good since they called the Big 12 North home. They’ll avoid Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee. Jackpot. Missouri becomes a playoff contender.
Ole Miss has it almost as good, with a schedule that steers clear of Georgia, Alabama and Texas. With fortune like that, the “Portal King” must be living right. The Rebels should reach 6-0 before even breaking a sweat. Playoff contender.
LSU has it tougher than Missouri and Ole Miss, but it avoids top dogs Georgia and Texas.
Tennessee’s schedule puts it on a fast track to playoff-contender status. The Vols will face Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma, but the draw looks favorable otherwise. But, I don’t trust that the Vols won’t stub their toe in another game. I still have images of the Vols losing to South Carolina in 2021 and getting trounced last year by Missouri looming on the mind.
What’s this, though, about a 12-team playoff that doesn’t include Alabama? Consider the possibility.
DeBoer’s first SEC tour includes Wisconsin (road), Georgia, LSU (road), Oklahoma (road), Missouri, Tennessee (road) and Auburn. Nick Saban scheduled his tee times at just the right moment.
Tide out of the playoff. Tigers, Tigers and Rebels in. The schedule tips the scales.
If only Alabama enjoyed the luxury of Rutgers’ schedule.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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