Hawaii
Hawaii Tourism Boom Bursts | Troubled Waters Lurking
Hawaii’s economic growth has turned lifeless and “will downshift this year” as the islands’ recovery boom is officially over. Changes are on the horizon with Hawaii tourism’s decline and the aftermath of the Maui fire. What comes next and what the means for visitors is our topic today.
The forecast, according to the latest report from the state’s research arm, attached below, suggests that Hawaii will transition to a much slower growth pattern rather than the breakneck speed at which it previously rebounded. In fact, instead of tourism being the driving force, it is a strong construction sector that will help provide any economic boost seen statewide, especially work on Maui following the wildfires. With that said, we never wanted to see a construction boom as a result of the Lahaina tragedy.
Hawaii tourism at saturation.
The report pointed to less U.S. visitor spending ahead and suggests that visitor arrivals will increase only slightly in the coming years. Significant growth in Hawaii travel is expected to end as the islands’ tourism industry reaches saturation. “Visitor numbers will also grow more slowly than in the past as the industry pushes up against capacity.”
What wasn’t addressed in the state’s economic update?
Hawaii sits at the forefront of an important shift in its approach to tourism, moving away from the paradigm of more visitors, resorts, vacation rentals, and flights. The state remains challenged in many ways following decades of overtourism and a lack of planning and infrastructure and seeks a new direction. With limited resources and framework, Hawaii has long been hard-pressed to know exactly how to manage its tourism success. Some shifts toward more sustainable tourism are nonetheless evolving in the near-term.
These issues were outside the scope of the report.
New $25 climate impact fee almost certain to be enacted.
The bill is intended to offset $16 billion in estimated Maui wildfire damage and mitigate the environmental damage caused by tourism. If that doesn’t happen, visitors should prepare for the alternative. That will likely take the form of an increase in the current 18% accommodations tax, as was recently confirmed by the governor.
Another proposal from the governor for a potential moratorium on Maui vacation rentals should return to the news in the days ahead. Governor Green said that by March, he’ll either achieve conversion of 10% of Maui’s existing 27,000 short-term rental units to long-term rentals for Lahaina fire victims or take the next steps.
Anti-vacation rental sentiment runs high in Hawaii, and this will remain a hotly disputed topic for the foreseeable future. With Gov. Green strongly on-board against vacation rentals, this will move forward. At present, 5.5% of the entire state’s 557,000 housing units are vacation rentals, but that varies widely. Maui has the most, at about 15%.
The push-back against vacation rentals is widespread. Joining the governor is the Hawaii Tourism Authority chair, Mufi Hannemann, who’s also head of the hotel industry’s Hawaii Lodging and Tourism Association (HLTA).
Hawaii’s Legislature is pursuing measures to phase out Hawaii vacation rentals as well. House Bill 84 seeks to give the counties more authority to start phasing out short-term rentals.
Will new efforts finally kill Hawaii’s golden goose?
The prospect of more taxes and fees and the elimination of vacation rentals is very concerning for many Hawaii visitors. There remains worry among stakeholders in the tourism sector that over-the-top vacation costs, plus real and perceived anti-visitor sentiment could have a negative impact on sustaining Hawaii’s visitor industry.
A lack of tourism infrastructure perpetually haunts Hawaii.
Last week US Transportation Secretary Buttigieg visited Hawaii and viewed disaster recovery efforts on Maui. He also delved into what some consider two of Hawaii’s infrastructure boondoggles. Those include the old and decaying Hawaii airport system and an expensive, incomplete, and largely unused Honolulu rail system.
The Transportation Secretary’s visit sought to highlight key infrastructure investments in Hawaii, and reaffirm the federal government’s commitment. At Hawaii airports, problems range from outdated, inflexibly designed, and maintained terminals, to damaged and poorly constructed runways, among other things. He acknowledged how important airports are to Hawaii’s island economy, and said bluntly regarding the Honolulu airport, ‘it needs work.”
While rarely mentioned by officials, these problems and others are inconsistent with both vitalizing existing Hawaii travel and attaining the new high-value tourism model that the state seeks.
Please share your thoughts on what’s happening.
24Q1_Forecast
Hawaii
Federal judge upholds Hawaii’s new climate change tax on cruise passengers
A federal judge’s ruling allows Hawaii’s new tourist tax, which includes a levy on cruise ship passengers, to take effect in 2026
HONOLULU — A federal judge’s ruling clears the way for Hawaii to include cruise ship passengers in a new tourist tax to help cope with climate change, a levy set to go into effect at the start of 2026.
U.S. District Judge Jill A. Otake on Tuesday denied a request seeking to stop officials from enforcing the new law on cruises.
In the nation’s first such levy to help cope with a warming planet, Hawaii Gov. Josh Green signed legislation in May that raises tax revenue to deal with eroding shorelines, wildfires and other climate problems. Officials estimate the tax will generate nearly $100 million annually.
The levy increases rates on hotel room and vacation rental stays but also imposes a new 11% tax on the gross fares paid by a cruise ship’s passengers, starting next year, prorated for the number of days the vessels are in Hawaii ports.
Cruise Lines International Association challenged the tax in a lawsuit, along with a Honolulu company that provides supplies and provisions to cruise ships and tour businesses out of Kauai and the Big Island that rely on cruise ship passengers. Among their arguments is that the new law violates the Constitution by taxing cruise ships for the privilege of entering Hawaii ports.
Plaintiff lawyers also argued that the tax would hurt tourism by making cruises more expensive. The lawsuit notes the law authorizes counties to collect an additional 3% surcharge, bringing the total to 14% of prorated fares.
“Cruise tourism generates nearly $1 billion in total economic impact for Hawai‘i and supports thousands of local jobs, and we remain focused on ensuring that success continues on a lawful, sustainable foundation,” association spokesperson Jim McCarthy said in a statement.
According to court records, plaintiffs will appeal.
Hawaii will continue to defend the law, which requires cruise operators to pay their share of transient accommodation tax to address climate change threats to the state, state Attorney General Anne Lopez said in a statement.
The U.S. government intervened in the case, calling the tax a “scheme to extort American citizens and businesses solely to benefit Hawaii” in conflict with federal law.
Hawaii
Episode 39 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption is underway at Kīlauea | Maui Now
December 23, 2025, 9:01 PM HST
Episode 39 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at 8:10 p.m. HST on Dec. 23, according to an update from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Sustained lava fountains approximately 100 feet in height are currently erupting from both north and south vents, with increasing heights.
Past episodes have produced incandescent lava fountains over 1,000 feet high that produce eruptive plumes up to 20,000 feet above ground level. According to the National Weather Service, winds are blowing from the northeast direction, which suggests that volcanic gas emissions and volcanic material may be distributed to the southwest.
- All eruptive activity is confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park; commercial airports in Hawai’i County (KOA and ITO) will not be affected by this activity.
- Three Kīlauea summit livestream videos that show eruptive lava fountains are available here: https://www.youtube.com/@usgs/streams
- KPcam and MKcam provide views of the plume height for aviation purposes
Episode 39 was preceded by overflows of degassed lava that began at approximately 6:41 p.m. from the south vent and continued to increase in intensity until 8:10 p.m., when sustained fountaining began, according to the HVO.
Most episodes of Halemaʻumaʻu lava fountaining since Dec. 23, 2024, have continued for around a day or less and have been separated by pauses in eruptive activity lasting generally at least several days.
No changes have been detected in the East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.
Kīlauea Volcano Alert Level/Aviation Color Code remain at WATCH/ORANGE. All current and recent activity is within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
Hawaii
Former teammates will square off as coaches for Hawaii and Cal in the Hawaii Bowl
HONOLULU — A pair of former college teammates will face off when Hawaii takes on California in the Hawaii Bowl on Wednesday.
Hawaii coach Timmy Chang and Cal interim coach Nick Rolovich were quarterbacks at Hawaii and teammates for two seasons in 2000-01.
Chang made 50 career starts in four years, while Rolovich started 12 games over two seasons.
“I’m grateful to be here with Timmy, so much great history with us,” Rolovich said on Monday.
He pointed out that the 15,000-seat Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex where they’ll play on Christmas Eve sits on what previously served as the Rainbow Warriors’ practice facility, Cooke Field, where Rolovich was first introduced to Chang.
“I think that makes it even more special, that the game’s not only played in Hawaii, but played kind of right there in that spot,” Rolovich said.
Chang, in his fourth year leading Hawaii (8-4), said he and Rolovich were roommates on the road in their playing days.
Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang in the first half during an NCAA football game against Arizona on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025, in Tucson, Ariz. Credit: AP/Rick Scuteri
“We ended up building a close bond,” he said. “I got to learn so much from this guy here, just watching him go through everything that a college student-athlete goes through, the ups, the downs. There’s so many things that I learned from Rolo. … (We were) just kids at 18 to 20, 21 years old, coming together and now look at us here. It’s special, it really is.”
Bowl-ing season
Hawaii will be making its 15th bowl appearance and its 10th in the Hawaii Bowl. The last postseason appearance for the Rainbow Warriors came in 2019, when they beat BYU in the Hawaii Bowl. They earned a bid to their hometown bowl in 2021, but were forced to withdraw due to COVID issues within the program.
Cal (7-5) will be playing its 27th bowl game. It earned bids to the LA Bowl in each of the past two seasons, but lost to Texas Tech in 2023 and UNLV a year ago. The Golden Bears are seeking their first eight-win season since 2019.
Inside the numbers
Both teams have found success passing the ball this season. Hawaii ranks ninth in the FBS in passing offense at 289.7 yards per game, while Cal’s average of 270.8 yards ranks 21st. Opponents have averaged 197.1 passing yards against the Golden Bears, the 37th best mark in the country, while Hawaii has surrendered an average of 218 yards through the air (62nd in FBS).
Cal ranks last (134th) in rushing offense at a mere 76.5 yards per game. Hawaii’s 104 rushing yards per game ranks 125th nationally.
Southpaw slingers
Both starting quarterbacks are left-handed and hail from neighboring towns on the west side of the island of Oahu. Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has passed for 3,117 yards with 20 total touchdowns, is a true freshman from Ewa Beach, while Hawaii’s Micah Alejado calls Kapolei his hometown. The redshirt freshman has logged 2,832 yards through the air and tallied 22 total TDs.
All-Americans
Cal defensive back Hezekiah Masses and Hawaii placekicker Kansei Matsuzawa each received All-America recognition for their respective senior campaigns. Masses recorded five interceptions, 18 passes defended and 43 tackles en route to an AP second-team selection, while Matsuzawa converted 25 of 26 field goals and all 37 of his extra-point attempts to earn AP first-team honors.
Change at the top
Rolovich was named interim coach after Justin Wilcox was fired on Nov. 23. Just six days after the coaching change, Cal upset then-No. 21 SMU 38-35 with Rolovich at the helm. On Dec. 4, the school announced the hiring of Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi as the program’s coach. Rolovich will remain on staff for the Golden Bears as quarterbacks coach and assistant head coach.
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