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Russia's war on Ukraine unlikely to end in 2024; Congress plays pivotal role in direction conflict takes

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Russia's war on Ukraine unlikely to end in 2024; Congress plays pivotal role in direction conflict takes

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The direction of the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war will largely depend upon whether Congress can overcome hesitation about continued support as fatigue sets in, experts told Fox News Digital.

“America’s partnerships and alliances have never been more important than they are right now,” Kenneth J Braithwaite, former secretary of the Navy in the Trump administration and former ambassador to Norway, argued. 

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“Communism is alive and well, and we are up against it as Russia wages war against Europe and China seeks to exert more influence on the globe,” Braithwaite said. “That means Americans need to look outside our borders at how we can protect ourselves from these looming challenges, starting with one of our greatest force multipliers: Our partnerships and willingness to stand united against authoritarian threats to sovereignty.”

The second year of the Ukraine invasion proved a truly chaotic one, starting with Russia seeming to suffer catastrophic setbacks when the vital Wagner forces turned traitor and tried to march on Moscow. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his plane exploded, killing him and everyone aboard. 

BRET BAIER REFLECTS ON THE IMPORTANCE, COST OF WAR JOURNALISM AS RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE ENTERS ANOTHER YEAR

A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier travels along a road in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region March 3, 2023. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)

Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to rally and beat back Ukraine’s counteroffensive, much to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration. Putin grew so confident in his standing he refused to renew a U.N.-backed deal to secure access for grain shipments through the Black Sea, turning and attacking Ukraine. 

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Ukraine countered with an impressive naval effort that destroyed a dozen Russian ships in the Black Sea, pushing the fleet out of the western part of the sea and allowing Kyiv to establish its own grain corridor. 

As the dust settles following that roller coaster series of events, the third year of the war remains vague and dependent upon two major developments. Russia or Ukraine will both look to overcome war fatigue to gain a major advantage. And Ukraine’s chances rest largely on whether the U.S. Congress can overcome its hesitation about continued support for Ukraine without a clear end in sight. 

“For Ukraine, the shell hunger and the manpower shortages caused by, and in the former case caused in part by U.S. delays to aid, it’s a challenging year,” John Hardie, the deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)’s Russia Program, told Fox News Digital. 

BIDEN CALLED OUT FOR EMBOLDENING PUTIN AMID UKRAINE WAR, NAVALNY’S DEATH

“It was always going to be a tough year no matter what happened with U.S. aid,” Hardie stressed. “The congressional delays have just made it worse. So, I think for Ukraine early this year, they’ll just try to hold on by the teeth and try to make it through 2025, when — if we put the pieces in place this year — I think Ukraine could regain the advantage.

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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with House Speaker Mike Johnson to discuss additional aid from Congress (Courtesy Speaker Mike Johnson’s office)

“But it obviously depends on the right decisions being made and implemented this year.” 

Congress has failed to approve new aid packages that would supply Ukraine with much-needed defense equipment, munitions and air defense systems. A rare Sunday vote Feb. 11 in the Senate pushed forward an aid package for Ukraine along with Israel and other U.S. allies that would provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $8 billion for Kyiv and other assistance. 

Several holdouts in Congress, including senators JD Vance, R-Ohio.; Josh Hawley, R-Mo.; and Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., have spoken against continued support for Ukraine.

TRUMP SAID HE COULD END UKRAINE WAR NEARLY A YEAR AGO BUT STILL HASN’T LAID OUT SPECIFICS

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Vance has argued that he sees little sense in “unlimited, unaccounted-for aid to Ukraine without any goals in mind,” while Tuberville found it difficult to continue “paying Ukrainian farmers” after “we just punted the farm bill for American farmers [to] next year.”

Mark Green, President and CEO of the Wilson Center and former administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under President Trump, argued in favor of continuing to support Ukraine. He worried that “standing by and letting Putin’s forces win would embolden our rivals elsewhere.” 

An apartment building damaged in a Russian rocket attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, in the early hours of Jan. 17. (Kharkiv Regional Administration/AP)

“What scares Putin more than anything else is democratic success on his borders,” Green told Fox News Digital. “That’s why his invasion of Ukraine was not merely a military invasion: He demolished infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainians and weaponized food to punish anyone who stands with Ukraine.

“He wants to undermine Ukraine and the rules-based system we created in every way, which is why the U.S. needs a wide range of tools to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. The world is watching.”

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TOM COTTON MAKES CASE TO GIVE UKRAINE AID WHILE PROTECTING US BORDER

Without the aid, Ukraine will find it difficult to sustain its defense against Russia, Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview this week with Bret Baier, FOX News’ chief political anchor and executive editor of “Special Report.” 

Zelenskyy claimed that Russia has lost five troops for every one Ukrainian, and he highlighted that Russia’s only significant gain in the past year was to take the city of Avdiivka near Donetsk.

Looking into year three, FDD’s Hardie worried about a Ukraine that did not have the consistent U.S. support to overcome war fatigue while Russia faces issues that could prove catastrophic in the coming months. 

A woman walks among apartment buildings destroyed by Russian shelling on the outskirts of Odesa, Ukraine, July 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Shtekel)

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“I think both sides have a structural manpower problem where they can’t rotate forces, and troops become increasingly exhausted,” Hardie said. “Despite having both mobilized, they haven’t done so to the extent that they could actually take tens of thousands of forces or more off the front line and let them rest for months on end.

“Folks on both sides maybe get a week of vacation here or there, but it’s not a real force rotation where you can give someone a date and say, ‘This is your deployment window, and once you’re done, you’re done,’” he added. “So, that hasn’t affected morale.

PRESSURE GROWS ON JOHNSON TO MAKE MOVE ON UKRAINE AID AS RUSSIAN INVASION NEARS 2-YEAR MARK

“It’s sort of both sides are struggling with that. For Ukraine, the issue is mobilizing young men. And, for Russians, it’s just one example of political risk and the economic risk of another round of mobilization,” Hardie added. “So, I think those are the things to watch out for.”

Ukraine will seek to remedy that issue with changes to its mobilization laws, which have slowly progressed through rounds of revisions as lawmakers have resisted several measures, including increasing the age for the draft.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the Victory Day military parade marking the 78th anniversary of the end of World War II in Red Square in Moscow May 9, 2022. (Dmitry Astakhov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Putin issued a decree to expand his forces by around 170,000 men, bringing the troop total to 1.32 million, not including any confirmed death count, which would significantly diminish that total if verified. 

The Kremlin went to great pains to ensure that the public understands the expansion does not indicate an impending draft, which proved wildly unpopular when Putin rolled it out in 2022 after promising that he would not do so. 

GERMAN LAWMAKERS REJECT OPPOSITION CALL TO SEND TAURUS LONG-RANGE CRUISE MISSILES TO UKRAINE

Putin on Friday promised to continue improving Russia’s military power, including — once again — its nuclear capabilities, which he promised would remain in modernized and good order, according to Reuters. 

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“Incorporating our real combat experience, we will continue to strengthen the Armed Forces in every possible way, including ongoing re-equipping and modernization efforts,” Putin said.

“Today, the share of modern weapons and equipment in the strategic nuclear forces has already reached 95%, while the naval component of the ‘nuclear triad’ is at almost 100%,” he added.

Zelenskyy will continue to fight for support and to convince Congress to back Kyiv, even if things remain unclear in the immediate future as his country faces an existential crisis. 

“My message is, if they want to be very pragmatic, the price, we are asking now to support, this price is less than it will be in the future. … They will pay much more, much more. We just want to live, to survive,” Zelenskyy said during his interview with Baier. “We don’t have [an] alternative.”

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‘No deal with Iran except unconditional surrender,’ Trump says

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‘No deal with Iran except unconditional surrender,’ Trump says

US president stakes out maximalist war aims as conflict wreaks havoc across the region amid rising death toll.

Donald Trump has stressed that any deal with Iran must result in the country’s “unconditional surrender”, setting maximalist war objectives for the United States.

The US president’s remarks on his Truth Social platform on Friday appear to reject the prospect of a compromise amid Iranian confirmation of diplomatic mediation to end the conflict.

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“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Trump wrote.

“After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said earlier that some countries are engaging in mediation efforts to end the war, stressing that Iran is committed to peace in the region but prepared to defend itself.

“Mediation should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict,” Pezeshkian said in a social media statement.

The conflict has spread across the Middle East, igniting Iranian attacks across the Gulf and a war between Hezbollah and Israel, resulting in a mass displacement crisis in Lebanon.

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Iran has been launching missiles and drones at Israel and US interests and assets across the region. Iranian forces have also targeted energy and civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries, straining ties with the Arab world.

The violence, which saw Iran largely succeed in closing down the Strait of Hormuz, has sent oil prices soaring globally.

Iranian officials have expressed defiance since the start of the war, stressing that they are ready for a long conflict and prepared to fend off a US ground invasion should it occur.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a message to Trump on Thursday that the US plan for a “clean rapid military victory failed”.

“Your Plan B will be even bigger failure,” Araghchi wrote on X.

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On Friday, Iran’s top diplomat posted a photo of the coffins of a mother and child, the apparent victims of US-Israeli attacks. “Our Brave and Powerful Armed Forces will avenge each and every Iranian mother, father, and child who has been targeted by hostile forces,” Araghchi wrote.

The war has killed at least 1,332 people in Iran, among them 181 children, according to UNICEF.

The deadliest incident was a strike on a girls’ primary school in the southern city of Minab on the opening day of the conflict, which Iranian authorities said killed about 180 pupils and staff.

The Trump administration has pushed to project confidence and dominance over Iran, with top officials saying that the US would “rain missiles”, “death and destruction” on the country.

In recent days, Trump has stressed that he would like to replicate the Venezuela playbook in Iran – keeping the governing system in place but installing a leader who is friendly to US interests.

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On Wednesday, Trump said he has to be “involved” in choosing the successor of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated in a US-Israeli attack on Saturday.

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Intense Israeli strikes hit Iran and Lebanon as US warns the bombardment will ‘surge dramatically’

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Intense Israeli strikes hit Iran and Lebanon as US warns the bombardment will ‘surge dramatically’

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Intense Israeli airstrikes pounded the capitals of Iran and Lebanon early Friday as the U.S. apparently struck an Iranian drone carrier at sea in its unrelenting campaign against the Islamic Republic’s fleet of warships.

Iran launched new retaliatory attacks in the Middle East at the end of a full week of bombardment, which U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned was “about to surge dramatically.”

Israel’s military said Friday morning it had begun “a broad-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran, Iran’s capital. Witnesses described the Israeli airstrikes as particularly intense, shaking homes in the area. Others reported explosions around the Iranian city of Kermanshah in an area that is home to multiple missile bases.

The Israeli military said strikes have already destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses and missile launchers.

The war has escalated to affect countries across the Middle East and beyond. Early Friday, Iran fired missile and drone attacks into Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, all countries that host U.S. forces. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

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In Lebanon, where the war has rekindled fighting between Israel and Iran-allied Hezbollah militants, Israel launched a series of airstrikes late Thursday into Friday in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas. Motorists jammed roads trying to flee or seek shelter.

The U.S. and Israel have battered Iran with nationwide strikes, targeting their military capabilities, leadership and nuclear program.

In addition to Israel, Iran’s attacks have targeted their Arab neighbors, disrupted oil supplies and snarled global air travel. The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, more than 120 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. Six U.S. troops have been killed.

US says it struck an Iranian drone carrier

The U.S. military said early Friday that it struck an Iranian drone carrier, setting it ablaze.

The U.S. military’s Central Command released black-and-white footage of the burning carrier. The Iranian military did not immediately acknowledge the attack.

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The drone carrier, the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, is a converted container ship with a 180-meter-long (yard) runway for drones. The vessel can travel up to 22,000 nautical miles without needing to refuel in ports, reports said at the time of its 2025 inauguration.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, described the carrier as “roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier.”

“And as we speak, it’s on fire,” Cooper told reporters.

Earlier in the week, an American submarine sank an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka as it was returning from an exercise hosted by the Indian navy that the U.S. also joined. The sinking killed at least 87 sailors.

Under cover of darkness Friday morning, B-2 stealth bombers dropped dozens of 2,000 pound “penetrator” bombs on deeply buried ballistic missile launchers inside Iran, Cooper said.

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“We’ve also struck Iran’s equivalent of Space Command, which degrades their ability to threaten Americans,” Cooper said.

Speaking alongside Cooper, Hegseth gave few details when he promised an upcoming surge.

“It’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”

Iran targets country’s hosting US forces

Qatar’s Defense Ministry reported early Friday it intercepted a drone attack targeting Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. Central Command.

Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed three ballistic missiles fired early Friday toward Prince Sultan Air Base south of Riyadh, which hosts U.S. forces, said a spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense.

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Air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, where the Interior Ministry said Iranian strikes targeted two hotels and a residential building. It said there were no casualties. In Kuwait, where the six U.S. soldiers were killed Sunday, the Kuwaiti army said its air defenses were activated when missile and drone attacks breached Kuwait’s airspace.

Cooper said Iranian attacks had now hit a dozen countries, who would be welcome to play a more active role in the conflict.

“Those 12 countries are none too happy and I look forward to working with all the partners who are willing to join us,” he said.

Trump again urges Iranians to “take back” their country

In brief remarks at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump again urged the Iranian people to “help take back your country.” This time he promised the U.S. would grant them “immunity” amid the war and ongoing dangers under the current Iranian regime.

“So you’ll be perfectly safe with total immunity,” Trump said, without giving any details about what that meant. “Or you’ll face absolutely guaranteed death.”

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Cooper and Hegseth cautioned Iranians not to take to the streets while the conflict is still raging, however.

“It’s common sense, don’t go out and protest while bombs are dropping” Hegseth said.

“The best thing for them to do now is just to lay low,” Cooper added.

In an interview with the news website Axios, Trump said he should be involved in choosing Iran’s new supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes of the war. Trump spoke dismissively of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, being a front-runner to replace his father, calling him “a lightweight.”

“We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran,” Trump said.

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Iranian officials meet to discuss new leadership

Iranian state television reported Friday that a leadership council had started discussing how to convene the country’s Assembly of Experts, which will select the new supreme leader.

The leadership council includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi and cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.

The statement provided no timeline on the selection of the supreme leader, nor information on whether the Assembly of Experts would meet in person or remotely for the vote.

Buildings associated with the Assembly of Experts, a 88-member clerical panel, have been attacked during the Israeli-U.S. airstrike campaign.

Israel hits Lebanon with multiple airstrikes around Beirut

Israel carried out at least 11 airstrikes late Thursday and early Friday, targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut. Fires broke out near a gas station.

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The Israeli army issued a warning Thursday evening, urging residents to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately.” Two hospitals evacuated patients and staff. No casualties were immediately reported.

The Lebanese health ministry said the death toll has risen to 123 since the resurgence of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which struck Israel in the opening days of the war.

A spokesperson for the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, Tilak Pokharel, said Thursday that peacekeepers had seen and heard clashes, including ground combat, in southern Lebanon as more Israeli forces have moved across the border.

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Bynum reported from Savannah, Georgia, Rising from Bangkok and Abou AlJoud from Beirut, Lebanon. AP journalists around the world contributed.

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___

This version has corrected the date of the ship’s inauguration to 2025, not 2005.

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Private flights account for 30% of departures from Oman airport as wealthy evacuate Middle East

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Private flights account for 30% of departures from Oman airport as wealthy evacuate Middle East

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Long border crossings, SUV convoys and six-figure jet charters have become the new escape route out of the Middle East as Operation Epic Fury intensifies, with private flights now accounting for nearly a third of all departures from Oman’s main airport.

FlightRadar24, a real-time flight tracking platform, reported that while Oman continues to be a “vital” hub for evacuation and repatriation flights, private flights accounted for 31% of operations Wednesday at Muscat International Airport.

As of Thursday afternoon, the platform reported more than 30% of all movements at the airport were private flights.

Semafor reported earlier this week that airports in Oman and Saudi Arabia were drawing ultra-wealthy travelers looking to leave the countries.

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Oman continues to be a “vital” hub for evacuation flights at its Muscat International Airport. (Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

People familiar with the matter told the outlet that private security companies have been booking fleets of SUVs to take people on the 10-hour drive from Dubai to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where private flights are available. 

The clientele evacuating the region are a mix of senior executives at global finance firms and wealthy travelers in the region for business or vacation, according to Semafor.

LIV golfer Jon Rahm, a two-time major winner, was just one of the wealthy who arranged flights amid the turmoil.

MIDDLE EAST CRUISE NIGHTMARE DEEPENS AS IRAN AIRSTRIKES LEAVE PASSENGERS STRANDED

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Rahm arranged a charter flight through his partnership with VistaJet, a private aviation company, to fly the seven stranded LIV golfers and a caddie from Oman to Hong Kong after their flights were canceled.

After a more than four-hour drive to Oman, the crew flew to Hong Kong.

A spokesperson for Air Charter Service, a company that acts as a global broker for private jets and freight transport, told FOX Business the company has arranged more than 10 evacuation flights, with more scheduled, mainly out of Oman with passengers looking to flee Dubai.

AMERICAN STUCK IN MIDDLE EAST ESCAPES IN RACE TO REACH CRITICALLY ILL HUSBAND IN CALIFORNIA

FlightRadar24 shared flights flying in and out of Muscat airport. (@Flightradar24 via X)

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“We evacuated some of our own staff who were just visiting the region, and we arranged transport via the Hatta crossing into Oman from the UAE to get them to Muscat from where they flew out of the region,” the spokesperson said. “The border crossing time at Hatta took around 3–4 hours, as of Sunday, but I suspect this has increased now, as more people look at this option.”

Light flight jet trips from Muscat, Oman, to Istanbul, Turkey, are reportedly going for more than $93,000, according to Forbes, which said the price was about double the usual rate. 

The outlet added the same route on heavy jets can cost up to $140,000.

AMERICANS IN MORE THAN A DOZEN MIDDLE EAST NATIONS URGED TO FLEE

This map shows the targets of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. (Fox News)

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The U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran Saturday, triggering retaliatory attacks targeting countries in the region that host U.S. interests. 

Mora Namdar, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs, advised U.S. citizens to leave Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

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The limited number of available aircraft has pushed up prices, as citizens and travelers attempt to flee.

Fox News Digital’s Ryan Morik and Ashley Carnahan contributed to this report.

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