Minnesota
Minnesota Twins PECOTA Projections: The Pitchers
The end of the Super Bowl means two things: pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and projection season. Teams are finished touching up their roster (sans a notable quartet of free agents still available), allowing our not-quite-yet robot overlords to offer their opinions on each squad.
I previously reviewed PECOTA’s predictions for the 2023 team here, and the articles about the pitching and hitting projections can be found here and here, respectively, along with a short description of what any of this is. Let’s wait no more, here are Minnesota’s top 12 projected pitchers.
(Other notable projected pitchers include Kody Funderburk (0.3 WARP), Jay Jackson (0.2), and Matt Canterino (0.2).)
That Pablo López comes in as the best pitcher on the team is no surprise; PECOTA pegged him as a top-tier arm last year, and he only reinforced the system’s confidence with his best all-around year to date. PECOTA only sees 10 other pitchers accruing more WARP in 2024.
Then, Joe Ryan. Man, PECOTA loves Joe Ryan. He had an eyebrow-raisingly high projection heading into 2022, and ranked solidly last year. It’s hard not to love his ability to combine an elite strikeout rate with an abnormally low walk rate; projections eat that skillset up. I think his relatively new home run problem gives the computer hope that it’s a fluke, not a sudden slide into late-career Bert Blyleven “all systems go” territory.
Bailey Ober rounds out the trio that, according to PECOTA, gives the Twins three of the 40 best pitchers in MLB. Yet again, projections love guys who can whiff hitters while keeping the walks low—and Ober’s increased workload in 2023 increased confidence in him staying healthy moving forward.
Jhoan Durán earns the best projection among all MLB relievers. His odd command downslide in 2023 did not portend disaster: he still struck out everyone and their mother and upped his groundball rate to 65.9%. Much like low walk rates, projection systems adore pitchers able to induce grounders at an elevated clip. When matched with elite strikeout production, few other relief arms can touch Durán.
The last thing I want to touch on is the two final arms. Dan Szymborski talked about the Brock Stewart conundrum in his piece here, in which he explains the deviation surrounding Stewart has to do with sample size: how can you project a 32-year-old who missed three MLB seasons, entered the year with a negative career WAR, and then mowed down guys like prime Joe Nathan? Simple: assume regression. Now, Szymborski points out that Stewart’s underlying numbers—mainly a 20% swinging-strike rate on all pitches and a 60.6% contact rate on swings—are hard to fake, giving legitimate credence to his success. Still, it’s going to take a few years for any projection system to believe in him.
(You can essentially say the same thing about Justin Topa, who didn’t shed rookie eligibility until his age-32 (!!!) season. How do you project something that almost never happens?)
Everything passes the smell test here. Minnesota’s big three look solid, but their back-end depth is a little scary, and the sleeping dragon nestled in the back of their bullpen should drive what appears to be a deep unit.
If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus’s website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.
What stands out most to you in these projections? Where would you place more faith, or less? Spark a discussion in the comments, below.
Minnesota
Farmington residents push back against massive data center projected to double city’s water use
A group of Dakota County residents is pushing back on plans for a massive data center, and it’s one of many such campaigns in communities across Minnesota.
In Farmington, developers received local approval for a 2.5 million square foot “hyperscale” data center on land once reserved for a new school, as well as a former golf course.
“If we don’t pay attention to what’s going on and advocate for ourselves, no one else is going to,” said Kathy Johnson, a Farmington resident and founder of the Coalition for Responsible Data Center Development. “I think money is driving this and quality of life is not being considered. We have to do that. Quality of life matters to the people that live here and it matters to me.”
Data centers aren’t new to Minnesota; a 2011 law passed by state lawmakers created incentives for major tech companies to move servers here. Their footprints, however, aren’t nearly as large as what’s being proposed in Farmington.
Even Meta’s $800 million project in Rosemount, at roughly 700,000 square feet, pales in comparison.
Mo Feshami, another Farmington resident who works in tech, said he first supported the idea of bringing a new data center to Dakota County.
“I thought if a data center comes in there won’t be as many houses or cars or strain on the school system – until I realized this is a hyperscale data center,” he lamented. “The data centers I used to work in, at most they used 10 megawatts. This is 708 megawatts. We used to have it in one or two floors of a large commercial building. This has its own 340-plus acres facility.”
Hyperscale data centers are currently on the table in nearly a dozen other sites in Minnesota: Hermantown, Bemidji, Monticello, Lakeville, North Mankato, Faribault and Pine Island.
The group of residents in Farmington have filed suit to block construction, first on technical grounds but later added to the complaint with concerns about the environment.
The Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy has likewise filed suits on behalf of five other communities, as well as becoming a party to the Farmington case.
“I think there is a place for data centers in Minnesota,” Feshami added. “Putting it in the middle of a residential neighborhood is not the right place for it.”
According to court documents, the City of Farmington’s current water use is around 2.14 million gallons of water a day, and the hyperscale data center would more than double that demand.
The machines, moreover, would need 700 megawatts of energy to keep running, and most power plants in Minnesota don’t even produce that capacity in a day.
“It is going to affect the wells. It’s going to affect the air quality, the sound quality, or our entire end of this community,” Kathy Johnson lamented.
Managers at Tract, the Denver-based land development company pushing the Farmington project, did not return WCCO’s calls or emails. A spokesman for the city said officials can’t comment amid ongoing litigation.
At a city council session last summer, a Tract executive promised the data center could bring up to 300 permanent jobs to Farmington, as well as an extra $16 million in property taxes.
A judge in November denied Farmington’s motion to dismiss the case. There is no timetable yet for the next steps in the process.
Minnesota
Minnesota leaders to provide update on climate action plan
Minnesota leaders on Wednesday morning will provide an update to the state’s climate action plan.
The plan was originally published in 2022 and laid the foundation for more than 40 climate laws that passed in the Legislature in 2023. Wednesday morning’s announcement will lay the foundation for future goals.
How to watch
- What: State and city leaders provide update to the state’s climate plan
- When: Wednesday at 10 a.m.
- Who: St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her, MPCA Commissioner Katrina Kessler, and other business and state leaders
- How to watch: You can watch live in the player above.
This story will be updated.
Minnesota
Sen. Hoffman to return to Minnesota Senate after assassination attempt
Sen. Hoffman speaks: ‘Ready to go back to work’
Senator John Hoffman has remained private the last seven months, working on his recovery after an attack that almost took the lives of him and his family. In an interview with FOX 9, he talks about the night it occurred, and how he plans to move forward.
CHAMPLIN, Minn. (FOX 9) – Minnesota State Senator John Hoffman is set to return to the Senate for the 2026 Legislative Session on Feb. 17 after recovering from an attempted assassination.
Senator Hoffman returns with gratitude
What they’re saying:
Hoffman expressed deep gratitude for the support he received from family, friends, and colleagues during his recovery.
“The support my family and I have received over these past months has been extraordinary,” Hoffman said in a statement, while emphasizing that his return is driven by a sense of calling rather than obligation.
Hoffman plans to resume his duties as Chair of the Senate Human Services Committee, focusing on Medicaid program integrity and ensuring continuity of care for vulnerable populations in Minnesota.
In his statement, Hoffman highlighted the bipartisan outreach he received, noting that “in moments like these, politics fades and humanity takes over.”
He also appreciated the genuine concern from colleagues across the political spectrum, which reinforced his commitment to responsible leadership.
Hoffman encouraged his constituents in Senate District 34 to continue reaching out with concerns and ideas as the legislative session begins. He expressed his gratitude to the people of District 34 and Minnesotans for their compassion and support.
The backstory:
At about 2 a.m. on June 14, 2025, a man posing as a law enforcement officer was at Hoffman’s front door. He, his wife Yvette and their daughter, Hope, were home at the time. They came to the door to see what was going on when the suspect opened fire.
Both John and Yvette Hoffman were shot multiple times.
The incident was allegedly a politically-motivated attack, for which Vance Boelter is currently charged and in custody while he awaits trial.
“Survival was my only, the priority I had was survival, that was the only priority going on in my head,” Hoffman told FOX 9 in January. “To me it was also, ‘Am I dreaming this? Is this really happening?’ Once it happened, when he wasn’t who he said he was, then it was survival.”
READ MORE: John Hoffman reflects on June 14 shooting: ‘I had 9 holes in my body’
The Source: Information from a press release by Senator John Hoffman and past FOX 9 reporting.
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