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State of the Union: How distant elections can affect Europe
In this edition of State of the Union, we focus on how elections in faraway places like Taiwan and the United States can affect Europe. We also take a look at the latest regarding support for Ukraine.
While the war in Ukraine approaches the two-year mark, there has been some sort of shadow-boxing this week over potential peace talks.
While in Davos, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy got the Swiss government to host a peace conference at some point in the future – without inviting Russia.
Then Moscow’s foreign minister Lavrov shot back saying that Ukraine would not decide when to begin any serious talks and that “the West” was not interested in negotiations anyway.
“The West” meanwhile seemed to get its act together as far as further military support is concerned.
Some EU countries committed to additional measures.
And the EU in general is now ready to approve its 50-billion-euro package soon with or without Hungary that has been blocking it for months.
“It’s very important to engage with all 27 member states of the European Union to get the 50 billion euro for four years up and running”, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Euronews in Davos.
“My personal priority is to have an agreement by 27. If this is not possible, we are prepared for an agreement by 26.”
There is a renewed sense of urgency, as aid for Ukraine from its biggest donor by far, the United States, is mired in political infighting in Washington.
And then there is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, however speculative at this point, which could mean an end to US support for Ukraine altogether.
A nightmare for many in Europe – but a nightmare against which there is a great remedy, according to the Belgian EU presidency: just wake up!
“If 2024 brings us ‘America first’ again, it will be more than ever ‘Europe on its own’.”, Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo said in a speech before the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
“We should as Europeans not fear that prospect. We should embrace it. We should embrace it by putting Europe on a more solid footing. Stronger, more sovereign, more self-reliant.”
True, Trump won the Iowa caucuses overwhelmingly this week, but it is still a long way to go to election day in November.
The U.S. presidential election is not the only one with major ramifications for Europe this year.
A week ago, the people of Taiwan elected a new president who basically refuses to cave before Beijing who considers the island a runaway province.
The European reaction to this democratic expression was rather muted – is Europe too fearful of negative reactions from Beijing?
Questions to Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Program of the German Marshall Fund and head of the Stockholm China Forum who joined Euronews from Berlin.
ADVERTISEMENTEuronews: So, the election in Taiwan was one of the most closely watched geopolitical events of the year. Yet, in the run-up of the vote, the European Union barely noticed it at all – is Taiwan a too hot a potato?
Ohlberg: There is, of course, still some reluctance and commenting on it to some degree. Presumably there is still some nervousness about offending China to some degree. So there is a little bit of a dance around some of that. But overall, people here are paying much more closely attention now than just a few years ago.
Euronews: The official EU position is: yes, to bilateral ties with Taiwan, but no political recognition or diplomatic recognition. That being said, do you see an opportunity for closer cooperation now that the election is over?
Ohlberg: I think what we can do is continue some of the corporation that’s already been taking place or some more close coordination we’ve had in the last couple of years. I mean, we’ve had some visits, primarily from Parliament’s delegations visiting Taiwan. That is one thing that has happened. And then we’ve also seen some careful, more careful ties at the ministerial level, where, for instance, ministers, went to Taiwan to talk to their Taiwanese counterparts. And I think it’s particularly these smaller cooperations establishing ties and making sure that Europe is invested in Taiwan, where I see the most benefit.
Euronews: EU parliamentary and government delegations made 28 visits to Taiwan last year, a new record – how do you interpret that interest?
ADVERTISEMENTOhlberg: Europe can’t really offer Taiwan that much in terms of security and concrete defense. I think Europe doesn’t have the capacity to do that. But one thing that Europe can do, is signal an interest in Taiwan and try to signal to the Chinese government that Europe has a vested interest in stability in the Taiwan Strait, and that Europe would be firmly opposed to any attempt to change the status quo through military means or through coercion.
Euronews: Hanging over all this is, of course, fear of retaliation from Beijing. Does the EU have the stomach to pick a fight with the Chinese Communists over even symbolic agreements with Taiwan?
Ohlberg: I if you’re alluding to bilateral trade agreements, I don’t really think that’s going to happen soon. There’s been a push for that, for instance, in the European Parliament. There is some reluctance on the Commission side, on various other sides. I don’t expect that to happen. But I do think there are other ways and other channels how ties with Taiwan, including trade ties, can be intensified. That may not have the same effect, but that are also helpful in this regard.
Lebanon, rocket attack on Unifil base of the Italian contingent: no injuries
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As President Donald Trump continues to express anger at NATO European allies for their lack of help in the war with Iran, he’s making clear their behavior comes at a cost.
In the weeks during the war and since the ceasefire, the president has hit back not just with words but with definitive actions against several of those countries.
Germany
On Saturday, Trump said that he would withdraw more than the initial 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany as stated by the Pentagon, after Berlin’s leader denigrated the American effort to stop Iran’s regime from building a nuclear weapon.
TRUMP WEIGHS PULLING US TROOPS FROM GERMANY AMID CLASH WITH CHANCELLOR OVER IRAN WAR
President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 3, 2026, to discuss issues including recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
A day earlier he said about Germany that “We’re gonna cut way down. We’re cutting a lot further than 5,000.” The Trump administration previously announced a contraction of 5,000 troops in Germany after the country’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Iran’s regime “humiliated” Trump.
In an apparent state of panic, Merz walked back his attack on Trump and his Iran strategy on Sunday. The chancellor wrote on X: “The United States is and will remain Germany‘s most important partner in the North Atlantic Alliance. We share a common goal: Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.”
Trump ratcheted up his troop reduction number against Germany amid his comments about downsizing U.S. boots on the ground in Spain and Italy because they failed to aid America in the war against Iran. The president’s anger at Western European countries has been simmering for weeks and could lead to profound changes in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
TRUMP CRITICIZES SPAIN AMID IRAN, NATO RIFT AS PM SANCHEZ FACES QUESTIONS OVER POLITICAL MOTIVES
Nile Gardiner, the director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, told Fox News Digital, “The lack of support for the United States has been nothing less than treacherous. I think the president has the right to be outraged by the lack of support from key European allies.”
An Iranian flag is planted in the rubble of a police station, damaged in airstrikes on March 3, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
He said, “There is a very deep-seated cultural appeasement in Europe toward the Iranian regime that goes back many decades, and a flat-out refusal to accept the reality of the immense dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran. European leaders are sleepwalking toward destruction with this perilous path they have taken.
TRUMP IS RIGHT ABOUT NATO’S WEAKNESS — THE REAL QUESTION IS HOW DOES AMERICA FIX IT
“The lack of support for the United States is how far Europe has gone toward losing its moral compass. Iran is a genocidal regime that threatens to wipe Israel off the map.” He noted that the Islamic Republic has killed huge numbers of its population.
Gardiner, a former advisor to Lady Margaret Thatcher said, “If you listen to European leaders, it’s as if the U.S. is the villain here.”
Merz, speaking last week in Marsberg, criticized the U.S. approach to Iran, saying Washington was being “humiliated by the Iranian leadership” and expressing hope the conflict would end “as quickly as possible.”
Gardiner said of Merz’s remarks, “Comments like these actually help the propaganda of the Iranian dictatorship. It is astonishing that a German chancellor would make these kinds of remarks at a time of war… and the German chancellor is giving comfort to the Iranian regime. It is disgusting.”
Numerous Fox News Digital press queries sent to Merz’s spokesman Stefan Kornelius were not returned.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the U.S. conflict with Iran “reckless” and “unjust.” (Yves Herman/Reuters)
Spain and Italy
Before his announcement on the troop withdrawal from Germany, and in response to a question about reducing U.S. troops in Spain and Italy, Trump responded, “I mean, they haven’t been exactly on board. Yeah, probably. Yeah, I probably will… Italy has not been of any help to us. And Spain has been horrible. Absolutely horrible.”
Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has taken a belligerent stand toward the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against the Iranian regime, forbidding the U.S. from using its military bases in Spain to refuel aircraft or prepare for military action. He has decried the campaign as illegal while staying quiet on the regime’s murder of thousands of protesters and its increased drive to produce ballistic missiles and acquire nuclear weapons-grade enriched uranium.
Gardiner said, “The Spanish have been the worst by a long way. At least the Germans and Italy have allowed the use of its own bases. The Spanish have refused to cooperate in any way with the war.”
Trump told the Italian daily Corriere della Sera last month about the country’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, “I’m shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong.”
The Europe expert, Gardiner, sees a wide gulf between how mainly Western European countries and the United States view the preservation of Western civilization, freedom, democracy and liberty.
French President Emmanuel Macron listens to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during a working session with world leaders at the G7 summit in Borgo Egnazia, Italy, on June 13, 2024. (Andrew Medichini/AP)
“Europe has lost both its ability and its will to fight. The United States is clearly willing to fight to defend Western civilization and the free world. Much of Europe has given up on this, especially Western Europe. It is an appeasement mindset cojoined with weakness and pacifism and also a growing acceptance by European leaders of mass migration and Islamification.”
He added, “Europe has fundamentally changed over the last 20 years beyond recognition, and yet Europe’s ruling elites accept it seemingly as a fact, with some notable exceptions.”
France and the U.K.
Trump took the United Kingdom and France in March to task for their postion on the war against Iran.
“The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!,” he wrote.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the Elysee Presidential Palace in Paris on Feb. 17, 2025, before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security. (Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images)
Trump also wrote, “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you.”
“Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
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Gardiner said the crisis over the Iran war shows that Europe has surrendered. The big Western Europeans have embraced “defeatism,” and “they do not care. It is as simple as that. And future generations will have to pay the price for the course Europe is taking now,” he said.
Fox News’ Brittany Miller and Solly Boussidan contributed to this report.
Published on
Ukraine’s top negotiator Rustem Umerov will hold talks with US officials in Florida on Thursday on how to end the full-scale Russian invasion, Kyiv said on Thursday, amid stalled negotiations during the Iran war.
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“The Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine will hold a series of meetings today with envoys of the President of the United States,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote in a post on X.
Zelenskyy said Kyiv had “defined the key tasks,” which includes discussing a potential prisoner exchange with Russia and security guarantees for a post-war Ukraine.
“Rustem and I discussed work with our European partners on Drone Deals. We are preparing the agreements reached at the highest level, as well as new steps in joint technological work,” Zelenskyy wrote.
US-mediated talks on ending Europe’s worst conflict since World War II have shown little progress since February, when Washington shifted focus to its war with Iran.
Umerov last met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in Florida between 21-22 March.
Since returning to office, Trump has pushed Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate but months of talks have failed to bring the warring parties closer to an agreement to stop the fighting, triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion four years ago.
The already stalled talks were put on the back burner from late February, when the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran began.
Even before the Middle East war, Russia and Ukraine remained at odds over the key issue of territory.
Ukraine has proposed freezing the conflict along the current front lines.
But Russia has rejected this, saying it wants the whole of the Donetsk region despite it being partly controlled by Ukraine, a demand Kyiv says is unacceptable.
Kremlin ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Kremlin said on Thursday that it would begin a two-day ceasefire with Ukraine starting at midnight that is meant to cover its patriotic 9 May parade, after ignoring a Ukrainian ceasefire earlier this week.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats in Kyiv that it will strike the Ukrainian capital if Ukraine targets its World War II victory parade.
“Yes, we are talking about the 8th and 9th of May,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, when asked if the ceasefire would come into effect from midnight.
Asked about the Ukrainian ceasefire on 6 May, a counter-offer by Kyiv which dismissed Moscow’s demand to stop fighting as “utter cynicism,” Peskov said, “There was no Russian reaction to this.”
The Kremlin ordered a scaled-back version this year, with no military hardware to be on display, over the fear it could be targeted by Ukraine.
Additional sources • AFP
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