Iowa
Trump faces tougher challenge in New Hampshire after Iowa romp
Former President Trump easily defeated his rivals in the Iowa caucuses but will face a tougher challenge in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary as he looks to cement his status as the inevitable GOP nominee.
Trump is in a strong position ahead of the Jan. 23 contest in the Granite State, where he won the party’s last contested primary in 2016 by roughly 55,000 votes, or 20 percentage points.
A Decision Desk HQ-The Hill average of polls shows Trump leading former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in New Hampshire by 8 percentage points.
But there are a handful of factors that could create a path to victory for Haley, who has emerged as arguably Trump’s most formidable challenger for the GOP nomination.
Independents will be able to vote in New Hampshire’s primary, the state has a far different electorate than the deeply conservative and evangelical Iowa, and Haley has spent more time than Trump in the state, where she has seen her poll numbers climb in recent weeks.
New Hampshire also has historically relished its role as a counterweight to Iowa, and while Trump enters the week as the favorite, it would not be a shock to see a counterintuitive result.
It would also create the feeling of a real primary race for the first time this cycle.
“I think if she beats him in New Hampshire it creates a lot of uncertainty. It would be a massive story,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.
Different electorate
Trump dominated in Iowa, where GOP voters tend to be evangelicals and more socially conservative. Entrance polls showed Trump won 53 percent of the vote from white evangelicals, compared with just 13 percent who went to Haley.
But in New Hampshire, the state is less religious and more libertarian.
Parts of New Hampshire are effectively suburbs of Boston, and the state has backed a Democrat for president each election cycle since 2000, a sign of how moderate it is compared with Iowa.
“The nature of the voter universe is different. The issue set is different,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran GOP strategist based in New Hampshire. “It’s no surprise that in Iowa you had Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum all win there, all three of whom led with their faith, and that was rewarded in Iowa.”
Primary vs. caucus
In addition to the demographics of New Hampshire, the nature of its primary process compared with Iowa’s caucuses could boost Haley, whose coalition is more reliant on independent voters or those who supported President Biden in 2020.
New Hampshire allows undeclared voters to participate in party primaries, meaning independents and Republicans alike will be able to cast a ballot in the GOP primary. Registered Democrats cannot participate, and the deadline to change party affiliation in the state passed months ago.
“New Hampshire is interesting,” Trump said this month at a Fox News town hall. “It’s a great place, a great state, unbelievable people. But they allow independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. You say, ‘What’s that all about?’”
“So, it’s a little bit false in that regard, but even with that, I think we’ll win substantially,” he added.
Haley’s third place finish in Iowa reflected the kind of coalition she’ll rely on. Exit polls showed Haley won 63 percent of caucusgoers who identified as moderate or liberal, the most of any candidate. She won 34 percent of self-identified independents, trailing Trump by 8 points in that category.
The New Hampshire primary is also in some ways more accessible than the caucus format, which requires individuals to show up at a specific location at a specific time and listen to speeches from each campaign before casting a ballot.
“The caucus caters to really deeply involved activists and people who are very involved in party politics,” Merrill said. “New Hampshire is an open primary, so you obviously have strong Republican involvement, but you also have undeclared voters who don’t affiliate with a party.”
Haley banking big on New Hampshire
Haley has invested a significant amount of time and resources in New Hampshire, making it an even more critical state for her if she is to upend Trump’s march to the nomination.
“We’ve been here for 11 months. We’ve done over 75 town halls,” Haley said Tuesday on Fox News.
She has the endorsement of Gov. Chris Sununu (R), and her controversial comments earlier this month that New Hampshire would “correct” the Iowa result reflected how much she is banking on a strong showing in the Granite State.
Haley could benefit because Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has spent little time campaigning in New Hampshire, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who almost exclusively campaigned there, dropped out of the race last week.
Trump has only held a handful of events in New Hampshire in recent months, though he will hold at least five rallies in the state in the days leading up to the primary and is a known commodity among voters there.
Trump and his team are hoping to secure another victory next week by any margin, essentially putting to rest any questions about whether an alternative could emerge in the primary contest.
But polling in the upcoming states on the primary calendar underscores just how dominant a force Trump is set up to be, regardless of the New Hampshire outcome.
An Emerson College poll published Jan. 9 found Trump leading DeSantis in the Nevada caucuses by a whopping 65 percentage points, though some candidates opted to appear on the state’s primary ballot rather than in the caucus.
An Emerson College poll released Jan. 5 found Trump leading Haley in her home state of South Carolina by 29 percentage points.
“At the end of the day what matters is wins and losses, and if Trump loses New Hampshire, for the next three or four weeks he’s a loser,” said Conant, the former Rubio aide who now works at Firehouse Strategies. “It would really change the dynamics in the race very quickly. Whereas if he wins the first two [states], I don’t know what the argument is that Haley is going to start winning in other states.”
Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Iowa
New Iowa program aims to remove barriers to family support
Thrive Iowa launches in Warren County and across the state
The new program aims to reduce barriers to families seeking help from local organizations.
Thrive Iowa, a new initiative from the Iowa Department of Health and Human Services, has officially launched in a number of counties across the state with the goal of helping struggling Iowa families connect with local resources and build a network of support in their community.
On June 23, Warren County celebrated its own program site launch as one of eight initial sites. Other counties that are celebrating their own site launches are Cass, Lee, Black Hawk, Webster, Buena Vista, Fayette and Clayton. A site is officially launched once it has enrolled a minimum of 20 participants, Iowa HHS Director of Communications Danielle Sample said in a statement.
The eight sites serve 11 counties in total, with services also available in Henry, Madison, and Van Buren counties, according to the Thrive Iowa website.
What is Thrive Iowa?
The initiative is focused on serving families, such as parents, caretakers, and pregnant individuals, according to the program’s website. To be eligible to receive help from the program, families must be living in Iowa, be a U.S. citizen or legal resident, and have an income at or below 200% of the federal poverty level.
The 2026 federal guidelines consider a family of four to be at the 200% threshold if they make $66,000 or less annually.
The program also outlines 13 core areas of well-being where it offers support. These include housing, recovery, employment, transportation, education, mental health, physical health, safety, dental, financial stability, food, child care and legal assistance.
The overall goal of the program is to reduce barriers to accessing support for families by doing the work of finding the right organization to meet their needs for them. Instead of having to reach out to multiple sources, a family can visit the program’s HopeHub, a case management system, to create a free account and receive a referral. Once referred, the individual is connected with a Thrive Navigator who will create a personalized plan and build local connections to assist the family.
Thrive Iowa is modeled after Restore Hope, an Arkansas-based nonprofit that began in 2015 to reduce the number of individuals in incarceration and the foster care system through community-based approaches. In addition to Iowa, this model is also used in Tennessee and Canada, according to the organization’s website.
The Iowa program plans to expand to other counties in the near future, Sample said. In July, Iowa HHS will begin onboarding more participating organizations and counties, expanding the program to serve 22 counties.
Warren County launch pledges to take families from crisis to careers
At the Warren County launch, the county’s initiative coordinator, Sarah Downard, was joined by Iowa State Rep. Brooke Boden, Ben Segebart, senior pastor at Indianola Freedom Fellowship Church, Sue Wilson, executive director of WeLIFT Job Search Center in Indianola, and Paul Chapman, executive director of Restore Hope.
Downard said the Warren County site is currently serving over 20 families.
To a room of around 75 community members and local organizations at The Hive event venue in Indianola, the five speakers emphasized the importance of the mission behind Thrive Iowa, which is collective impact and helping build strong communities through supporting the families that live there.
The group also invited the whole room to sign the site’s declaration of participation in the program, which stated the goals of the program and a pledge to work together to help take families from crisis to career.
“When families are struggling, we feel the impact everywhere,” Boden said. “We see this in our schools, our health care systems, our workplace, and our communities.”
Isabelle Foland is a communities reporter for the Register. Reach her at ifoland@registermedia.com.
Iowa
Iowa one of nine states that won’t have to match portion of federal SNAP benefits
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (Iowa Capital Dispatch) – The majority of U.S. states will soon have to pay 5% to 15% of federal nutrition assistance benefits in their state, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s release Wednesday of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program payment error rates.
House Resolution 1, commonly known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that was enacted in 2025, stipulated that states with SNAP payment error rates greater than 6% would be required to foot 5%, 10% or 15% of SNAP benefits costs in their state.
Iowa, with a payment error rate of 5.34% in 2025, is just one of nine states with an error rate below 6% and that won’t have to match a portion of the SNAP benefits it pays out, starting in October 2027.
According to USDA, SNAP payment error rates measure the accuracy of states in determining who is eligible for SNAP and how much they receive. The rate is calculated via a series of reviews from state and federal agencies where instances of overpayments and underpayments are identified.
USDA’s SNAP quality control page says errors are “largely unintentional” and might be the fault of a state agency or a SNAP household.
Eighteen states had payment error rates above the national average of 10.62%. Per the quality control process, these states will have to either pay USDA a determined amount, or invest 50% of that amount into activities that will fix the root causes of the payment errors.
USDA said that while the 2025 average payment error rate is a “modest” decrease from the 2024 average error rate of 10.93%, it represents $10.1 billion in improper payments.
Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said the latest payment error rates show that “state accountability is severely lacking” in SNAP.
“USDA has taken historic action to help interested states curb SNAP waste, and I hope other states, regardless of political leadership, prioritize needy families and the American taxpayer over politics,” Rollins said in a news release.
An analysis of H.R. 1 from the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the law, which included several changes to SNAP benefits in addition to the error rate cost share, would reduce federal spending on the SNAP benefits by $255 billion between 2025 and 2034. CBO also estimated that state spending on SNAP benefits would increase during the same period by $85 billion.
Critics of the bill said the cost shift to states would endanger the SNAP program and stress state budgets.
According to the 2025 error rates from USDA, 41 states had payment error rates above the 6% threshold set by the 2025 law. South Dakota had the lowest error rate at 2.47%. Idaho, Kentucky, Nebraska, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming were the other states with rates below 6%. Alaska had the highest error rate of 23.15%.
The higher the error rate, the greater the share, up to 15%, the state will have to pay of its SNAP benefits, which are otherwise 100% footed by the federal government.
In addition to the cost share, states with a payment error rate in excess of 6% are required to submit a corrective action plan to the Food and Nutrition Administration, formerly known as the Food and Nutrition Service, to explain the root cause of the payment errors and how the state plans to correct the errors.
Copyright 2026 KCRG. All rights reserved.
Iowa
Dima Petrov Dishes On Iowa Offer – Hawk Fanatic
Sometimes you see something you like and go right after it. That was the case with Iowa when it watched Dima Petrov kick a football last week. The Hawkeyes offered a full-ride scholarship to the specialist.
While the days of top kickers and punters walking on in hopes of maybe earning a scholarship when they were upperclassmen are gone, a junior picking up a scholarship is still uncommon. Iowa doing it gives it a leg up on whatever the competition might end up being.
“Iowa is definitely my No. 1 school at the moment,” he said. “Although it’s too early for me to make any big decisions, the likelihood of me becoming a Hawkeye is very high.”
Petrov (6-2, 190) also worked out for Wake Forest and UConn this month. The Hanover (N.H.) High all-stater was invited to camp at Virginia Tech, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida State and others. Interest in him is on the rise.
“Right now, it’s too early for me to make any big decisions. My plan is to commit in the next year or so, as soon as I’m 100 percent certain that I’ve found the right place. A lot of factors go into that, with the most significant one being education,” he said.
Petrov plans on majoring in Business. Iowa has a good one in the Tippie Business School.
“That was what my parents studied and then built their careers in, and I see my future in that same sphere,” he said.
The Hawkeyes did well in impressing a prospect visiting a state half a country away from his home.
“I had a fantastic time exploring all the incredible facilities and campus. Coach (Chris) Polizzi and the rest of the Hawkeyes’ special teams staff were absolutely amazing and made the visit unforgettable. I also loved how proud and passionate the whole city seemed about the program, which is something that you don’t see often.”
Access to advanced technology at Iowa also stood out.
“The workout with the Trackman system helped me identify other areas for improvement in my kicking by providing precise numbers,” he said.
After leaving Iowa, Petrov was invited to the Chris Sailer Kicking Showcase on Sunday. Following his performance, he’s now the second-ranked kicker nationally in the 2028 Class. Perhaps more offers will be on the way.
For now, the Hawkeyes are the leaders in the clubhouse. Petrov is looking forward to visiting them again.
“I can’t wait to come back to Iowa, hopefully very soon. I’d love to go on a game-day visit and see how electric Kinnick (Stadium) gets. Although I don’t know the exact dates yet, my plan is to be back there in the next few months,” he said.
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