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The spot bitcoin ETF: Here's what happens when it starts trading

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The spot bitcoin ETF: Here's what happens when it starts trading

Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are placed on a PC motherboard in this illustration taken June 16, 2023. 

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Crypto investors are waiting for the Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a raft of spot bitcoin applications, likely Wednesday

With a spot bitcoin ETF now looking very real, attention is turning to the details of how it will trade, how much it will cost, how much of the runup in bitcoin is due to demand that has been pulled forward, and premium or discount valuations.

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Fees are competitive and will get more so

With nearly a dozen ETFs competing for attention, bitcoin buyers will be very price sensitive, and issuers are already engaged in a modest price war. For example, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which is partnering with 21Shares to launch a bitcoin ETF, initially announced a fee of 0.8% but on Monday announced no fee for the first six months.

Other issuers are also steeply discounting prices, with several (Bitwise, ARK, Invesco) offering 0% fee for the first six months, while Grayscale is charging 1.5%.

Spot bitcoin ETF fees
Bitwise (GBTC) 0.0% (after first six months: 0.24%)
ARK Invest/21Shares (ARKB): 0.0% (after first six months: 0.25%)
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) 0.0% (after first six months: 0.59%)
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 0.20% (after first 12 months: 0.30%)
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) 0.25%
Franklin Templeton Digital Holdings Trust 0.29%
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC) 0.39%
WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW) 0.50%
Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BTF) 0.80%
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 1.50%

Invesco’s Galaxy Bitcoin ETF has set its expense ratio at 0.0% for the initial six months and the first $5 billion in assets, and goes to 0.59% after.

How will a spot bitcoin trade relative to bitcoin and bitcoin futures?

One of the main questions is how well a spot bitcoin ETF will track bitcoin and bitcoin futures.

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Simeon Hyman, ProShares’ global investment strategist who manages the largest bitcoin futures ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) that launched in October 2021, noted that bitcoin futures ETFs have tracked bitcoin “fairly well.” But he also told me, “The spot market for bitcoin is still not mature. The futures market is regulated and mature. We’ll have to wait and see how well they track against each other.”

Another issue is whether the bitcoin ETFs will trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value. In this case, the NAV is the value of the bitcoin owned by the ETF. Some are concerned that the creation and redemption process that was agreed upon to create spot bitcoin ETFs could result in a bitcoin ETF trading at a premium to its NAV.

“Some of these ETFs will trade at a premium, and then as investors start to understand the nuances, that’s when we will filter out the nuances and the small points,” Reggie Brown, GTS co-Global Head of ETF Trading & Sales, told Bloomberg.

Most market participants believe that any premiums will be small.

Som Seif runs the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, the first bitcoin ETF to launch in Canada in 2021.

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“Our product trades extremely efficiently, with very tight spreads,” Seif told me. “You should see no impact on trading efficiency. There will be a breadth of players, and the underlying asset is very liquid.”

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, one of the applicants for a bitcoin ETF, agreed: “The underlying market is very liquid,” he told me. “We have been in the market buying and selling bitcoin for years. The main issue are, who gets the liquidity, and who wins on expenses.”

How much money will these ETFs attract?

It’s not clear how much new money will be dragged in once a spot bitcoin ETF trades.

However, two ETF-related events have helped propel interest in bitcoin in the last two years:

1) The beginning in trading of bitcoin futures ETFs (BITO), starting in October 2021, which helped move bitcoin from almost $10,000 in October of that year to over $40,000 by January 2022. The largest bitcoin futures ETF, ProShares bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), recently passed $2 billion in assets under management, according to ProShares.

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2) Blackrock’s application for a bitcoin ETF on June 16, 2023, helped moved bitcoin from roughly $25,000 to $30,000 in a matter of days.

Brown estimated that the combined ETFs could have fairly significant inflows. “Thirty days out, it could be $2 billion-$3 billion,” he told Bloomberg, estimating it could attract $10-$20 billion in new assets this year.

Still, considering the current market capitalization of bitcoin is near $900 billion, that is not huge inflows. The Canadian spot bitcoin ETF, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, has about $400 million in assets after over two years.

What’s next?

The next issue, Hougan says, is whether the big institutions and financial advisors will allow their investors to trade bitcoin on their platforms.

“Just because a bitcoin ETF has been launched, it doesn’t mean JP Morgan will get in,” Hougan said.

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After that, Hougan said the next big events will be the bitcoin halving in April, followed by any interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

“Higher interest rates are bad for non-yielding assets like bitcoin or gold,” he told me. “If you get 5% on cash, that’s tough competition.”

A bitcoin ETF approval would be a 'watershed' moment for crypto industry, CEO says

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Crypto Sector Suffers Exodus of Reliable Retail Investors | PYMNTS.com

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Crypto Sector Suffers Exodus of Reliable Retail Investors | PYMNTS.com

Retail investors are reportedly leaving the cryptocurrency sector, robbing the industry of a dependable driver.

That’s according to a report Sunday (March 1) from Bloomberg News, which says the speculative demand that once centered around crypto has shifted into stocks.

Since late 2024, retail investors have steadily shifted toward equities, a trend that sped up following the crypto crash last October, the report said, citing a new report from market-maker Wintermute which itself drew from JPMorgan Chase data.

Bloomberg characterizes the shift as striking at something key to the crypto’s market structure, which has long relied on investor mood as a key demand driver. If that demand is moving to other trades, it goes against the belief that digital assets can recover without something to draw back retail investors.

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“In prior cycles, excess retail risk appetite tended to concentrate in crypto,” said Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of Wintermute, who added that crypto is now “one of many risky-asset classes with similar volatility profile that retail can use to invest and speculate on.”

More than $19 billion in positions were wiped out in October — $7 billion of them in less than an hour — liquidating more than 1.6 million traders, the report added.

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Since then, there’s been “a near-complete pivot into equities that is still ongoing,” the Wintermute said. Bitcoin has fallen from its record high of around $126,000 down to $66,000 amid reports of American and Israeli strikes against Iran, the report added.

In other digital assets news, PYMNTS wrote last week about the significance of Morgan Stanley’s application before the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a charter for a digital asset-focused national trust bank.

As that report said, a trust bank, as opposed to a traditional commercial bank, does not offer loans or deposits, but rather focuses on custody, fiduciary services and asset administration, basically acting as a highly regulated vault/legal steward. This structure, PYMNTS added, could be ideally suited to digital assets.

“The trust bank charter offers a solution,” the report added. “It allows a firm to handle digital assets under the supervision of the OCC while avoiding the capital and liquidity requirements associated with deposit-taking institutions. In regulatory terms, it is a bridge. In strategic terms, it could be an on-ramp for traditional finance to take over functions once dominated by crypto-native firms.”

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

While studies reveal institutional investors and wealth managers believe tokenized ETFs will drive mainstream market adoption for cryptocurrency, there looms the theft of bad actors that most often go untraceable.

Barriers to the expansion of tokenization are starting to fall as major investment firms consider launching tokenized ETFs, according to new global research by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s leading digital assets hedge fund manager founded by alumni of Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Its study with institutional investors (pension funds, insurance asset managers and family offices) and wealth managers at organisations which collectively manage over $14 trillion in assets found almost all (97%) believe the potential launch of tokenized ETFs such as BlackRock’s will be important to the expansion of the sector with nearly one in three (32%) rating the development as very important.

The study also reflected the belief that tokenization will continue to grow, with nearly 70% of respondents believing that fund managers looking to tokenize investment funds and asset classes will increase over the next three years.

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Nickel’s research with firms in the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates found growing awareness of the benefits of tokenization. Private markets are seen as offering the greatest potential for tokenization, with almost 70% seeing private equity funds as the asset class with the most opportunity, followed by fixed income (55%) and public equities (42%).

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and Founding Partner at Nickel Digital, said: “Tokenization is quickly moving from theory to real-world adoption as institutional investors grow more comfortable with its benefits and see major players enter the space. When firms like BlackRock step in, it fundamentally shifts the conversation. This development is timely for our multi-manager vehicle as expanding liquidity depth will allow some of our pods to start trading tokenized assets in the coming months.”

To address potential criminal threat, an advanced detection system to identify and trace blockchain funds connected with criminal activity was presented earlier this week at the Annual CyberASAP Demo Day in London.

The system, called SynapTrack, enables faster and more accurate detection of fraudulent activity using blockchains and cryptocurrencies, where traditional anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems struggle to keep pace.

Although current fraud detection methods pick up unusual activity, they deliver an extremely high rate (40%) of false positive reports. These require manual checking by compliance professionals, resulting in backlogs in identifying and acting on suspicious activity.

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The SynapTrack system is designed to deliver a substantially lower rate of false positives. It has already been tested using real-life data from the notorious 2025 Bybit hack, where criminals stole $1.5bn of digital tokens from a cryptocurrency exchange. SynapTrack traced the hacker with 98% accuracy.

The team behind SynapTrack is keen to hear from exchanges, financial regulators or law enforcement agencies who want to test the prototype in real-world conditions.

SynapTrack uses a validated methodology to score the likelihood of transactions being part of a money laundering scheme. It has a self-improving algorithm that continuously adapts to new tactics – dynamically identifying suspicious patterns in blockchain transactions. It has a universal cross-chain capability, and is designed around how compliance teams work, presenting results in a dashboard. No infrastructure changes are needed for installation.

It is relatively easy to obscure fraudulent or criminal activity by moving funds between blockchains, or dispersing them across many blockchains, in what are known as ‘cross-chain’ transactions. It is these transactions that pose the greatest difficulty for existing anti-money laundering systems.

SynapTrack was developed by University of Birmingham computer scientists Dr Pascal Berrang and PhD student Endong Liu, in collaboration with blockchain developer Nimiq. Dr Berrang’s research is in IT security and privacy on blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning. The subject of Endong Liu’s PhD is transaction tracing. Nimiq is supporting with blockchain-specific insights, knowledge of real-world constraints, and implementation.

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The team is currently fundraising to ensure regulatory readiness and complete the team with a CEO and software developers.

Dr Berrang said: “The last few years have seen a near-exponential growth in blockchain transactions. While many of these are legitimate, blockchains are attractive to criminals as funds can be moved very quickly to other jurisdictions. Our work with Nimiq and the creation of SynapTrack is addressing this black spot, and will enable more effective regulation, making the whole ecosystem of blockchain safer and more trustworthy.”

With the financial market and cybersecurity industry converging, cryptocurrency is here to stay.

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Bitcoin drops to $63,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

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Bitcoin drops to ,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $65,000 before pulling back to $64,700 as the Iran conflict continued to escalate through Saturday.

Iranian state media reported at least 70 killed in its Hormozgan province, per Aljazeera, including a strike on an elementary school. Israel activated air raid alerts after detecting fresh missile launches from Iran.

Trump told the Washington Post that “all I want is freedom for the people.” NATO said it was “closely following” developments, China urged an immediate ceasefire, and Turkey offered to mediate.

Bitcoin’s inability to hold $65,000 on the bounce suggests sellers remain in control, but the relative stability given the severity of the headlines points to thin weekend order books rather than active selling pressure.

Headline risks persist for BTC traders as the U.S. day progresses.

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What happened earlier

Earlier in the day, BTC neared $63,000 in Saturday trading after the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, pushing the largest cryptocurrency down roughly 3% in a matter of hours and extending what had already been a difficult weekend for risk assets.
The move brought bitcoin to its lowest level since the Feb. 5 crash, when the token briefly dipped below $60,000.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared an immediate state of emergency across all areas of Israel. A U.S. official confirmed American participation in the strikes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The sell-off follows a well-established pattern. Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, while equity and bond markets are closed on weekends.

That makes it one of the only large, liquid assets available for traders to sell when geopolitical risk spikes outside of traditional market hours.

The result is that bitcoin often acts as a pressure valve for broader risk-off sentiment during weekend events, absorbing selling that would otherwise spread across equities, commodities, and currencies if those markets were open.

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The attack risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world, following a month-long U.S. military buildup and failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

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