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NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?
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We made a model to determine the odds for every potential San Francisco 49ers playoff opponent.
As the NFL regular season comes to a close today, the final pieces of the NFL playoff picture are falling into place. The San Francisco 49ers have already secured the top seed in the NFC, but their path to the Super Bowl is far from clear, as one of nine potential teams will travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners in the home team’s first playoff game.
The Niners plan to rest a number of their starters today, similar to their opponent–the Los Angeles Rams–who have already secured a wild-card spot. On its face, this afternoon’s game appears to hold little meaning; However, it will play a pivotal role in shaping the now-blurry NFC playoff picture, as only the No. 1 seed is currently secured.
So, who will the 49ers first playoff opponent be? Well, that’s easy–we’ll just create a model. And by “create,” I mean “borrow” (with permission, h/t below) from existing models, mix them together with my predictive model, toss it in the simulation oven for 45 minutes at 350 degrees, and voilà!
The San Francisco 49ers will play one of the following teams:
Los Angeles Rams
Again? Yes, the most likely team among San Francisco’s nine potential opponents is the one the 49ers play today, and the two squads may clash again, regardless of the outcome of the game. With a victory today, the Rams will secure the No. 6 seed; If the Niners prevail, Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. Either way, the Rams will play one of three potential teams: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, or the Detroit Lions, and a victory in the opening round will most likely send the Rams back to the Bay Area the following week. Although this is the most likely scenario among many, it’s far from a sure thing at 26 percent.
Philadelphia Eagles
“Been there, done that.” But not so fast, because the Eagles may be back again–although this time, it won’t be on their home field. If the Eagles lose or the Cowboys win, Philadelphia is relegated to the No. 5 seed, and will face the winner of the NFC South. In this scenario, if Philadelphia is only wild-card team to pull off an upset, their next game will be at Levi’s Stadium. Overall, a repeat playoff matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is the second most-likely outcome for the Niners, at 23 percent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If all three NFC division winners win on their home turf next week, the NFC South Champion will head to the Bay in the second round. This team is most likely to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after winning four of their last five games, will secure the top spot in the NFC South with a victory over the two-win Carolina Panthers today. Overall, the odds of a 49ers-Bucs matchup in the divisional round are 18 percent.
Green Bay Packers
Today’s 49ers game has a clear and direct impact on this scenario. While the Green Bay Packers have a slight chance of holding on to a wild-card spot if they lose to the 7-9 Chicago Bears today, the 8-8 Packers are in if they win. Green Bay will be locked into one of the two last playoff spots, along with the 9-win Rams. Since Green Bay holds the tie-breaker, the outcome of today’s 49ers-Rams game will determine the order of the two final teams. If Green Bay pulls off an upset next week, The 49ers’ first opponent will be either the Rams or the Packers; the odds it’s the Packers? 14 percent.
Seattle Seahawks
A Packers loss would open the door for the Seattle Seahawks to squeeze into the playoffs with a win today, along with a loss by the Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints. If the 7-seed Seahawks win their first game, they’ll head to San Francisco. One year after beating the Seahawks three times in the same season, the 49ers will be forced into a repeat scenario, but only at an 8-percent rate.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints’ playoff road to the Bay is similar to that of the Buccaneers. If the Saints are the unlikely NFC South champs, and all division winners win next week, the 49ers will play New Orleans in the second round. This scenario is a long-shot at 5 percent.
Dallas Cowboys
Like the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys have a broad range of potential playoff paths. If the Cowboys lose their way back into the top wild-card spot, they’ll face the winner of the NFC South. If Dallas can then win on the road, and the two remaining division winners prevail, then yet another 49ers-Cowboys playoff game is on the horizon. But in the end, the odds are unlikely, at just 4 percent.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s technically possible for the 7-win Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. If they do, and then take a similar path as the one described above, San Francisco would be their second round opponent. It’s rather difficult to picture this scenario, which comes in at approximately 1 percent.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs, which would require a victory, and a lot of help–including losses by both the Packers and Seahawks, as well as one of the NFC South’s top-2 teams. If the Vikings are in, and then pull off the upset in the opening round, their next matchup would be the 49ers. Yes, the odds are more than zero, but just barely, at less than 1 percent.
Credit to nflverse for significant portions of code and data.
Thanks to Sebastian Carl, Ben Baldwin, Lee Sharpe, Tan Ho, and John Edwards.
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
The San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday, guaranteeing a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage. The team still has one more game to play, a somewhat inconsequential clash with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams earned a playoff berth this weekend by defeating the New York Giants and witnessing the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Seattle Seahawks.
Able to bypass the first week of playoff games, the 49ers will await the weakest-seeded victor from the Wild Card Round.
Below are the current playoff standings with Week 17 in the books. This is what the NFC postseason picture would look like of the season
On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. With little at stake in their regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 provides an excellent opportunity for some ailing players, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, to rest and recover.
However, only some starters will get the week off entirely. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained this week that the 49ers still need to field a team against the Rams.
“When you give guys the game off, practice changes, too, and that can end up hurting guys a lot, and you end up just developing bad
The San Francisco 49ers have disclosed their quarterback strategy for the upcoming regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters that Brock Purdy will not play on Sunday, providing the quarterback a two-week break leading into the playoffs.
Earlier today, the Rams announced that Carson Wentz would start against the 49ers instead of Matthew Stafford. While San Francisco has secured the No. 1 seed in the postseason, Los Angeles will be seeded either sixth or seventh, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game.
“Brock’s the only guy for sure I know I don’t plan on playing,” Shanahan said.
That means it will be Sam
Safety Tashaun Gipson was on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s lengthy list of San Francisco 49ers players who will not practice on Wednesday, the first on-field session ahead of the team’s regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Gipson is sidelined with a quad strain and will not recover in time to play this weekend.
“Gip ended up—I think we got it yesterday—he had a quad strain, so that could be anywhere seven to 10 days,” Shanahan informed reporters. “So the odds—that can heal faster, too—but just with our situation, the odds aren’t there.”
The other 49ers players not expected to practice on Wednesday are defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot, knee), running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), guard Jon
San Francisco, CA
Philadelphia Eagles to play San Francisco 49ers in NFL playoffs. Here’s what you need to know.
The Philadelphia Eagles will begin the playoffs against the San Francisco 49ers in the wild-card round next weekend at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Birds (No. 3 seed) had a chance to earn the No. 2 seed with a win, but lost to the Washington Commanders in the regular season finale.
Here’s what you need to know about the matchup vs. the 49ers and more.
Which day will the Eagles and 49ers play?
The date and time of the wild-card round matchup between the Eagles and 49ers have yet to be announced, but playoff games are scheduled for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Two games will take place Saturday, three will happen Sunday and the final first-round matchup will be on Monday night.
Eagles and 49ers postseason history
The Eagles and 49ers have only met twice in postseason history, most recently in the NFC championship game in the 2022 season.
The Eagles won that game, 31-7, before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. In that game, the 49ers were decimated at quarterback as Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson suffered injuries.
After Johnson exited, Purdy returned to the game in the third quarter, but he was unable to throw the football beyond a few yards. The injuries to San Francisco’s quarterbacks led to the NFL approving a rule change that allows teams to play an emergency quarterback if the starter and backup are injured.
The Eagles are 1-1 vs. San Francisco all-time in the playoffs. Philadelphia’s loss to the 49ers in the playoffs happened in the wild-card round in 1996.
The title game in the 2022 season between the Eagles and 49ers started a rivalry that boiled over into 2023.
In 2023, the 49ers traveled to Lincoln Financial Field in Week 13 and dominated the Eagles, 42-19. The loss started the infamous collapse for the Eagles to end the season as the Birds lost six of the final seven games, including the playoff exit vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The loss to the Niners in the 2023 season also featured Eagles security chief Dom DiSandro and then-49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw being ejected from the game after a scuffle on the sideline.
The Eagles and 49ers haven’t played each other since the 2023 season.
How the Eagles and 49ers got here
The Eagles went 11-6 in the 2025 season and won the NFC East for the second consecutive year, which ended a 20-year stretch of the division not having a repeat winner.
The Niners had a chance to earn the No. 1 seed, but fell to the Seattle Seahawks Saturday night. The 49ers finished the year with a 12-5 record to earn the No. 6 seed.
San Francisco, CA
What is next for San Francisco 49ers and who to root for Week 18
With a loss against the Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers officially lost the one seed and a chance at a bye week. They will be playing next week, but it’s not quite determined who they will play and when. A few games on Sunday will determine this.
Who the San Francisco 49ers will play in the Wild Card Round
The 49ers will either be the five or six seed. They will be the five if the Los Angeles Rams lose to the Arizona Cardinals. However, if the Rams beat the Cardinals, the 49ers will be the sixth seed in the NFC.
A few notable starters, such as Davante Adams and Kevin Dotso,n will be out, but Matthew Stafford is going to play, and he is competing for the MVP. Arizona has not won a game in a few months their front office would like to lose for draft pick purposes and they are heavy underdogs in this game.
The most likely outcome is that the Rams will be the fifth seed and they will get to face the NFC South winner. Meanwhile, the Bears will take on one of the Philadelphia Eagles or Chicago Bears. While the 49ers beat the Bears and lost to the Bucs, most fans would rather see the Bucs, so the 49ers will be rooting for the Cardinals, even if that is unlikely.
Chicago plays the Detroit Lions, and if they win, they will get the two-seed. That would mean that the Philadelphia Eagles will host the 49ers in the Wild Card Round. If the Bears lose and the Eagles win, the 49ers would head to Chicago to take on the Bears.
Then, if the Bears and Eagles lose, the 49ers would head to Philadelphia. Philadelphia is taking on the Washington Commanders, and they have not won in about as long as the Cardinals. They are also looking at starting Josh Johnson again this week, which should ensure one more loss.
So, with the Rams and Eagles being near locks to win, it will come down to the Bears. The Lions are not bottom dwellers like the other two, and we know Dan Campbell will play to beat the Bears.
Detroit is not quite a playoff team, but they can compete with any playoff team, so they could end up giving Chicago a run for their money. 49ers fans are going to want Detroit to show up and play well. While it is not easy to beat a team twice, with the second being in their home, they would like to avoid the Eagles, who have a defense that can compare to Seattle. We saw what happened against that type of defense.
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San Francisco, CA
SF 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks preview: Race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The last time the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks met in the regular season with the NFC West on the line, an epic battle came down to a single yard.
It was the last game of the 2019 season. Then-Niners linebacker Dre Greenlaw stopped Seahawks tight end Jacob Hollister short of the goal line as time expired, sending San Francisco to a 26-21 win and the NFC West division crown, the NFC’s No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. The 49ers would then go on a postseason run, but lose in Super Bowl LIV against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Six years later, a lot has changed for the 49ers and Seahawks — who square off again Saturday night at Levi’s Stadium (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN) — but not the stakes.
The Seahawks (13-3) enter the game in first place of the NFC West and on a six-game winning streak. A win or tie would lock them in for top spot in the division and the conference. They have an NFL-best 14-2 road record since 2024 under coach Mike Macdonald.
The 49ers (12-4) are also on a six-game winning streak — and a seventh would pull them even with the Seahawks in overall record. They’d claim the NFC West crown and No. 1 seed by virtue of a 2-0 record against Seattle.
49ers fans, players gearing up for major rivalry game against Seahawks airing on ABC7
Back in Week 1, the Niners went to Seattle and escaped with a win in the closing moments. Since then, these teams have taken decidedly different paths to the same destination.
Seattle has emerged as one of the league’s most complete teams, led by the second-best scoring defense in the NFL. The Niners have been the opposite, carving a path to the postseason on the strength of a high-octane offense that ranks fifth in offensive points per game and first since Week 9.
Add it all up and the expectation on both sides is for another classic that could come down to the final seconds, if not the final yard.
“We stole one up there, but I think they’re going to be ready for this one,” 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz said. “It’s going to come down to that last couple of plays.”
ESPN’s NFL Nation 49ers reporter Nick Wagoner and Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson break down the matchup with the biggest questions heading into the game, key players and injury concerns for each team.
Can Seattle’s defense get to 49ers QB Brock Purdy?
It’s tempting to ask whether Sam Darnold and Seattle’s offense can finally play a clean game and kick their recent bad habit of slow starts, as they’ve failed to top nine points in the first half in six of their past seven games.
But the unstoppable-force-versus-immovable-object matchup on the other side of the ball is worth watching. No offense has been hotter of late than San Francisco’s (it has scored 40-plus points in each of the past two games), and maybe only one defense — Houston’s — has been better than Seattle’s all season. Macdonald’s unit is allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL at 17.3 per game.
Part of the formula has been relying on their dominant front four — led by 2026 Pro Bowlers Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence — to get to opposing quarterbacks without having to send an extra rusher, instead keeping one more defender in coverage. The Seahawks rank fifth in pressure rate (35.1%) and 27th in blitz rate (20.4%).
Their 44 sacks are eighth most in the NFL, though they’ve only recorded four over their past four games. That is partly due to how quickly Indianapolis Colts’Philip Rivers and Carolina Panthers’Bryce Young got rid of the ball.
Purdy, on the other hand, has averaged the second-longest time before a throw of any quarterback this season at 3.19 seconds. Williams, Lawrence & Co. will need to take advantage of the opportunities Purdy gives them to get home. If San Francisco has to start its backup left tackle, with 12-time Pro Bowler Trent Williams questionable with a hamstring injury, there should be a few.
Seattle’s key players to watch
QB Sam Darnold
The Seahawks are hoping that Darnold can regain the form he showed over the first two months of the season, when he led the NFL in Total QBR (78.2) through 10 weeks. The past seven have been an adventure. Darnold ranks 27th in Total QBR (37.3) since Week 11, committing 10 turnovers in that span. Which is not to say the Seahawks have been winning entirely in spite of him. Two weeks ago, for instance, he played a leading role in their epic comeback against the Rams, coming up clutch in the fourth quarter and overtime. Last week, he made several big-time throws on third down to help Seattle pull away from Carolina.
Darnold has up to $2.5 million worth of contract incentives that he can reach in this game, including $500,000 apiece for throwing three more touchdown passes and 150 more passing yards.
DB Nick Emmanwori
The rookie second-round pick played all of four snaps in the season opener against San Francisco before suffering an ankle injury that sidelined him for the next three games. Since returning, he has developed into an almost-every-down playmaker, a versatile weapon and one of the leading candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Emmanwori lit up the scouting combine with a 4.38 40-yard dash and a 43-inch vertical jump at 6-3 and 220 pounds. That blend of size and athleticism allows him to play all over the field — sometimes lining up on the line of scrimmage, or across from slot receivers. He’s an X factor that Seattle’s defense didn’t have the first time it faced the 49ers.
Stat to know
Wide receiverJaxon Smith-Njigbais having a historic season for the Seahawks. His 1,709 receiving yards and 113 receptions are franchise single-season records. He is 91 yards shy of becoming the seventh player in NFL history to record 1,800 receiving yards in a season.
Smith-Njigba is a downfield threat, leading the NFL in receptions and yards (683) on passes 20-plus yards downfield this season. His 974 yards on passes thrown outside the numbers this season is 222 more than the next-closest player.
Injury concerns
The Seahawks could be down to their third-string left tackle, undrafted rookie Amari Kight. They ruled out starter Charles Cross and have listed Josh Jones as questionable. Jones has filled in capably for Cross the past two games, but he suffered knee and ankle injuries against Carolina that kept him from practicing Tuesday and Wednesday before he returned Thursday as a limited participant.
The Seahawks’ defense will likely be without safety Coby Bryant, who’s doubtful with a knee injury that also sidelined him last week. The good news there is that Ty Okada has been an unsung hero this season while making nine starts for Julian Love and one last week for Bryant.
Another piece of good news for the Seahawks: Wide receiver and kick returner Rashid Shaheed cleared concussion protocol this week after leaving last week’s game against the Panthers.
Best thing I heard in the Seahawks’ locker room this week:
“We know they’re a good offense and we’re a good defense. Saturday is going to speak for itself. I’m not going to lip-box y’all to death about what we’re going to do or not. I’m just going to get out there … and play Saturday. Let us go, let our defense roll and let our pads do the talking Saturday night.” — defensive tackle Jarran Reed
Last time the Seahawks won the NFC’s No. 1 seed
It has happened three times in franchise history. Not coincidentally, those were the three times the Seahawks made the Super Bowl.
The most recent was in 2014, the year they came a yard away from claiming their second straight Lombardi Trophy. The Seahawks went 12-4 in the regular season before beating Carolina in the divisional round and then Green Bay in overtime in the NFC Championship Game, after they improbably erased a 12-point deficit in the final four minutes.
The Seahawks went into the final weekend of the 2019 season with a chance to claim the No. 1 seed with a win and some help. But by the time they kicked off against the 49ers, it was no longer in play for Seattle. So this will be the first time since 2014 in which the top seed will truly be on the line for the Seahawks in their regular-season finale. — Henderson
Will San Francisco’s defense step up and force turnovers?
Absent star defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, the Niners’ defense has struggled mightily down the stretch, particularly when facing more efficient offenses. While Seattle’s defense is the better side of the ball, the offense has been no slouch despite some late-season hiccups.
But the Seahawks also have a penchant for giving the ball away. Seattle has 28 turnovers this season, second most in the NFL with Darnold responsible for a league-high 20 of those.
Those giveaways have become even more common in the past seven games, as Darnold has 10 turnovers in that span. It’s why a hot start that had Darnold — who spent the 2023 season with the 49ers as Purdy’s backup — in the MVP conversation has given way to observers wondering if he can do enough to guide an otherwise well-rounded team on a deep playoff run.
The Niners’ defense, meanwhile, has made its living this season off limiting explosive plays, forcing field goal attempts and coming up with the occasional fourth-down stop or red zone turnover.
Aside from that, though, there hasn’t been a whole lot of resistance from Robert Saleh’s patchwork unit. And taking the ball away is probably second only to pass rush in areas the Niners would like to improve defensively.
San Francisco is tied for 22nd in takeaways this season with 16 and has had none in seven of its 16 games. Coincidentally, it was a late-game forced fumble from Bosa that clinched San Francisco’s Week 1 win against Seattle.
There will be no Bosa to bail the Niners out this time. The numbers suggest Seattle will give someone else a chance to make that key play that could win the game, but it’s still fair to wonder who on the Niners’ defense will be the one to capitalize when that opportunity arises.
49ers’ key players to watch
QB Brock Purdy
There’s a case to be made that Purdy is playing the best ball of his still young career. Since returning from a toe injury in Week 11, Purdy has thrown 16 touchdowns with five interceptions and added three rushing scores. He’s not qualified because of time missed, but if he was, Purdy’s 77.8 QBR would lead the NFL.
Like Darnold, Purdy has had turnover troubles, and Seattle’s defense is a difficult challenge. But if he can take care of the ball, there should be opportunities for another big day.
CB Deommodore Lenoir
Lenoir has not shied away from trash-talking anyone but that’s especially true when it comes to the Seahawks. Lenoir has fully embraced this rivalry and even fired shots at Smith-Njigba, Seattle’s star wideout, in March. He doubled down on that this week, asking to shadow JSN on Saturday night.
“Man-to-man coverage, me and him,” Lenoir said. “That’s what I want.” The Niners are unlikely to grant that request because of how they’d have to change their defense elsewhere but, after sharing his thoughts, Lenoir will be in the crosshairs if and when Seattle targets him.
Stat to know
Running back Christian McCaffreyhas shown what makes him a dual threat in the passing and rushing games again this season. His 17 total touchdowns are tied for third most by a Niner in a season. He is on pace to average 50 rushing yards per game and 50 receiving YPG in a season for the third time in his career.
McCaffrey’s 116.4 career scrimmage YPG is the third most in NFL history (min. 100 games) after Hall of Famers Jim Brown (125.5) and Barry Sanders (118.9).
Against the Seahawks he can further cement himself in history. He needs five receptions to pass LaDainian Tomlinson (624) for the third-most catches by a running back in NFL history.And he needs four receptions to reach 100 for the season and become the first Niner since Terrell Owens in 2002 to hit the century mark.
Injury concerns
The Niners could be without left tackle Trent Williams because of a right hamstring injury. He’s listed as questionable, and though coach Kyle Shanahan said Williams has made “good progress,” Williams said “we’ll see” when asked if he will be available. Austen Pleasants, who fared well against Chicago last week, would make his first NFL start if Williams can’t play.
As for George Kittle, who sat out last week against the Chicago Bears with an ankle injury, he said he “absolutely” expects to play versus the Seahawks, but was officially listed as questionable.
Best thing I heard in the 49ers’ locker room this week:
“We never really thought that ‘Hey, man, we’ve got to go attack the No. 1 seed.’ It was always we’ve got to go take on whoever we’re playing on Sunday and win that game. And so, this is just where we’re at at the end of the year. We’re very grateful for that, to be in this opportunity and situation. But, we can talk all we want. We have to go do it at the end of the day.” — Purdy
Last time the 49ers won the NFC’s No. 1 seed
The 49ers surged to the NFC’s top seed in 2023 when they finished 12-5 and won the NFC West division. Including that year, each of the previous two times the Niners had the No. 1 seed under Shanahan they’ve advanced to the Super Bowl. — Wagoner
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