San Francisco, CA
NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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We made a model to determine the odds for every potential San Francisco 49ers playoff opponent.
As the NFL regular season comes to a close today, the final pieces of the NFL playoff picture are falling into place. The San Francisco 49ers have already secured the top seed in the NFC, but their path to the Super Bowl is far from clear, as one of nine potential teams will travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners in the home team’s first playoff game.
The Niners plan to rest a number of their starters today, similar to their opponent–the Los Angeles Rams–who have already secured a wild-card spot. On its face, this afternoon’s game appears to hold little meaning; However, it will play a pivotal role in shaping the now-blurry NFC playoff picture, as only the No. 1 seed is currently secured.
So, who will the 49ers first playoff opponent be? Well, that’s easy–we’ll just create a model. And by “create,” I mean “borrow” (with permission, h/t below) from existing models, mix them together with my predictive model, toss it in the simulation oven for 45 minutes at 350 degrees, and voilà!
The San Francisco 49ers will play one of the following teams:
Los Angeles Rams
Again? Yes, the most likely team among San Francisco’s nine potential opponents is the one the 49ers play today, and the two squads may clash again, regardless of the outcome of the game. With a victory today, the Rams will secure the No. 6 seed; If the Niners prevail, Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. Either way, the Rams will play one of three potential teams: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, or the Detroit Lions, and a victory in the opening round will most likely send the Rams back to the Bay Area the following week. Although this is the most likely scenario among many, it’s far from a sure thing at 26 percent.
Philadelphia Eagles
“Been there, done that.” But not so fast, because the Eagles may be back again–although this time, it won’t be on their home field. If the Eagles lose or the Cowboys win, Philadelphia is relegated to the No. 5 seed, and will face the winner of the NFC South. In this scenario, if Philadelphia is only wild-card team to pull off an upset, their next game will be at Levi’s Stadium. Overall, a repeat playoff matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is the second most-likely outcome for the Niners, at 23 percent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If all three NFC division winners win on their home turf next week, the NFC South Champion will head to the Bay in the second round. This team is most likely to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after winning four of their last five games, will secure the top spot in the NFC South with a victory over the two-win Carolina Panthers today. Overall, the odds of a 49ers-Bucs matchup in the divisional round are 18 percent.
Green Bay Packers
Today’s 49ers game has a clear and direct impact on this scenario. While the Green Bay Packers have a slight chance of holding on to a wild-card spot if they lose to the 7-9 Chicago Bears today, the 8-8 Packers are in if they win. Green Bay will be locked into one of the two last playoff spots, along with the 9-win Rams. Since Green Bay holds the tie-breaker, the outcome of today’s 49ers-Rams game will determine the order of the two final teams. If Green Bay pulls off an upset next week, The 49ers’ first opponent will be either the Rams or the Packers; the odds it’s the Packers? 14 percent.
Seattle Seahawks
A Packers loss would open the door for the Seattle Seahawks to squeeze into the playoffs with a win today, along with a loss by the Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints. If the 7-seed Seahawks win their first game, they’ll head to San Francisco. One year after beating the Seahawks three times in the same season, the 49ers will be forced into a repeat scenario, but only at an 8-percent rate.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints’ playoff road to the Bay is similar to that of the Buccaneers. If the Saints are the unlikely NFC South champs, and all division winners win next week, the 49ers will play New Orleans in the second round. This scenario is a long-shot at 5 percent.
Dallas Cowboys
Like the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys have a broad range of potential playoff paths. If the Cowboys lose their way back into the top wild-card spot, they’ll face the winner of the NFC South. If Dallas can then win on the road, and the two remaining division winners prevail, then yet another 49ers-Cowboys playoff game is on the horizon. But in the end, the odds are unlikely, at just 4 percent.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s technically possible for the 7-win Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. If they do, and then take a similar path as the one described above, San Francisco would be their second round opponent. It’s rather difficult to picture this scenario, which comes in at approximately 1 percent.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs, which would require a victory, and a lot of help–including losses by both the Packers and Seahawks, as well as one of the NFC South’s top-2 teams. If the Vikings are in, and then pull off the upset in the opening round, their next matchup would be the 49ers. Yes, the odds are more than zero, but just barely, at less than 1 percent.
Credit to nflverse for significant portions of code and data.
Thanks to Sebastian Carl, Ben Baldwin, Lee Sharpe, Tan Ho, and John Edwards.
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
The San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday, guaranteeing a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage. The team still has one more game to play, a somewhat inconsequential clash with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams earned a playoff berth this weekend by defeating the New York Giants and witnessing the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Seattle Seahawks.
Able to bypass the first week of playoff games, the 49ers will await the weakest-seeded victor from the Wild Card Round.
Below are the current playoff standings with Week 17 in the books. This is what the NFC postseason picture would look like of the season
On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. With little at stake in their regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 provides an excellent opportunity for some ailing players, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, to rest and recover.
However, only some starters will get the week off entirely. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained this week that the 49ers still need to field a team against the Rams.
“When you give guys the game off, practice changes, too, and that can end up hurting guys a lot, and you end up just developing bad
The San Francisco 49ers have disclosed their quarterback strategy for the upcoming regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters that Brock Purdy will not play on Sunday, providing the quarterback a two-week break leading into the playoffs.
Earlier today, the Rams announced that Carson Wentz would start against the 49ers instead of Matthew Stafford. While San Francisco has secured the No. 1 seed in the postseason, Los Angeles will be seeded either sixth or seventh, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game.
“Brock’s the only guy for sure I know I don’t plan on playing,” Shanahan said.
That means it will be Sam
Safety Tashaun Gipson was on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s lengthy list of San Francisco 49ers players who will not practice on Wednesday, the first on-field session ahead of the team’s regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Gipson is sidelined with a quad strain and will not recover in time to play this weekend.
“Gip ended up—I think we got it yesterday—he had a quad strain, so that could be anywhere seven to 10 days,” Shanahan informed reporters. “So the odds—that can heal faster, too—but just with our situation, the odds aren’t there.”
The other 49ers players not expected to practice on Wednesday are defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot, knee), running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), guard Jon
San Francisco, CA
Why do gray whales keep dying in San Francisco’s waters?
The 4,140-sq-km bay is the largest estuary on the west coast of the US. Before 2018, this species of whales wasn’t known to stop seasonally or consistently in the bay, bypassing it on their migration route down to Baja California and back up the Arctic, said Josephine Slaathaug, who led a recent study on gray whale mortality in the bay.
San Francisco, CA
Eastbound I-80 closure in San Francisco snarls traffic, slows business
One of San Francisco’s busiest freeways remained shut down Saturday, creating major traffic delays and dampening business for some local restaurants and shops.
All eastbound lanes of Interstate 80 just before the Bay Bridge are closed as crews work around the clock to rehabilitate the roadway. The 55-hour shutdown, which began on Friday night, is scheduled to last until Monday morning in time for the commute.
The closure has forced drivers onto detour routes, leading to heavy congestion for those trying to reach the East Bay, including Oakland and Berkeley.
The impact is being felt beyond the roadways.
At MoMo’s, a restaurant across from Oracle Park, staff found business noticeably slower.
“A little bit more mellow than usual. We usually see a little bit more foot traffic, a little bit more people on Saturdays,” said Daniel Bermudez, executive chef at MoMo’s.
Bermudez believes the freeway closure may be discouraging visitors from coming into the city this weekend, despite favorable weather.
“The weather is beautiful today. It’s nice and sunny. So we have plenty of tables outside,” he said.
With the San Francisco Giants playing an away game, the restaurant had hoped fans would still gather to watch, but turnout during game time remained light.
“This is kind of like our off-season Saturday. A lot slower than our baseball weekend,” said Casandra Alarcon, general manager at MoMo’s.
Other small businesses in the Mission Bay and South of Market neighborhoods reported similar trends, saying most of their customers are regulars who live nearby rather than visitors.
“A little bit slower for sure. Before, we had tourists come and walk to the baseball park,” said Ajaree Safron, manager at Brickhouse Cafe & Bar.
Caltrans has shut down eastbound lanes between 17th and 4th streets to repave the 71-year-old roadway. The goal is to extend the life of the Bayshore Freeway by another decade.
City and transportation officials said the timing of the closure was intentional, noting fewer major events scheduled in San Francisco this weekend, aside from the Cherry Blossom Festival.
Westbound lanes remain open, and officials said traffic heading into San Francisco from the East Bay has not been significantly affected.
“Getting into the city, it wasn’t too bad. Regular [traffic], what we expect on a Saturday morning,” said visitor Andrea Inouye.
While the closure has posed challenges for businesses, some workers said they are taking it in stride.
“Hopefully, it’s not for too long and we get past it, and get back to our normal routine,” Bermudez said.
Despite early concerns about widespread gridlock, transportation officials said the region has avoided the worst-case scenario. Traffic remains heavy in areas near detours, but the anticipated “carmageddon” has not materialized, in part because many drivers chose to avoid the area or take public transit.
San Francisco, CA
Trio of Bay Area High School baseball games at San Francisco Giants’ Oracle Park
Bay Area High School baseball fans are treated to a rare opportunity Saturday (April 18) with three games at Oracle Park, home of the San Francisco Giants, including the famed Bruce-Mahoney clash between West Catholic Athletic League rivals St. Ignatius and Sacred Heart Cathedral.
The first pitch of the 20th annual Dante Benedetti Baseball Classic starts at 11 a.m. and pits two more San Francisco private schools as University (9-7), winners of four straight, taking on Riordan (5-11).
That will be followed by the Bruce-Mahoney game at 2:30 between St. Ignatius (12-5, 4-2 WCAL) and the Irish (7-10, 1-5) and finished off with a North Coast Section clash between North Bay’s Marin Catholic (9-7) against Acalanes (7-6-1).
The Benedetti Classic, founded by Dante’s Boys Foundation board member Tom Lounibos and Giants president Larry Baer, benefits the DBF which honors the spirit of Benedetti who for nearly 40 years owned San Francisco’s Mr. Baseball nickname for his kindness and generosity to baseball-playing youth in the area.
Among their philanthropic efforts are glove and baseball equipment drives, field renovations and contributions to scholarships and sponsorships.
After starting the season 0-4 — three of those losses were by one run — University, under head coach Andrew Suvunnachuen, has found its way, winning the last four, all in Bay Counties League play, by a combined 51-6 count over Lick-Wilmerding (16-1 and 11-3) and San Domenico (13-2 and 11-0).
Senior catcher and pitcher Jett Messenger leads the way with a .447 average, while getting on base at a .638 rate. He also leads the team with 20 stolen bases. Junior third baseman Tate Gebhart is hitting .419, while Leo Felder and Behbart share the RBI lead with 15 each.
Junior Matthew Foley is 3-2 on the mound with a 2.38 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17.2 innings.
Riordan, under second-year head coach Craig Sargent, was 5-5 in nonleague games but lost six straight in the rugged WCAL, losing two tough games this week to Mitty (3-2 and 7-4). Junior third baseman and pitcher Santiono Williams leads the team in batting average (.371), on-base percentage (.488) and stolen bases (nine). He’s also been the team’s top pitcher at 4-2 with a 2.84 ERA.
The teams have split two previous games in their history, with Riordan winning 2-0 in 2023 and University prevailing 5-0 in 2021.
St. Ignatius, led by ninth-year head coach Brian Pollzzie, has already secured the Bruce-Mahoney trophy with four straight wins — one each in football, girls volleyball, boys basketball and girls basketball — but this rivalry is always spirited.
The Wildcats, who are ranked fourth in the Bay Area by the San Francisco Chronicle, are coming off a tough 3-0 home loss to No. 2 St. Francis on Friday after beating the host Lancers 10-6 on Tuesday.
The team is led by Stanford-bound Archer Horn, who is hitting .486 with four home runs and a .604 on-base percentage. The shortstop and pitcher also has not allowed an earned run in three pitching appearances while registering one save.
Pitching is a team’s strength with a 2.59 ERA, led by a brigade of strong arms including Leo Rhein (2-0, 2.38), Tycco Giometti (2-1, 2.62), Charlie Stecher 1-1, 0.72) and Chase Gordon (1-0, 2.80). The team is missing standout Finn Demuth, out of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Sacred Heart Cathedral, led by fourth-year head coach Gregg Franceschi, has scored 60 runs on the season and given up 61. The Irish are coming off two losses to eighth-ranked Valley Christian (5-2 and 10-1).
They are led offensively by junior outfielder Brody O’Sullivan (.381) and senior infielder Jacob Vines (.378). Johnny Nepomuceno and Max Nylander are other run-producers. Zach Stallworth (37 strikeouts, 29.2 innings) and Cooper Rogers Lewis (0.25 ERA) have been the team’s top pitchers.
The series has been remarkably close since 2005 with Sacred Heart Cathedral holding a 27-20 edge, though St. Ignatius won both games last season (5-0 and 6-3) after the Irish won 9-7 and 1-0 in 2024.
Marin Catholic hopes to get back to winning after starting the season 9-1, but have since lost six straight, four in Marin County Athletic League play, including 4-2 to Novato on Thursday. Senior outfield Luke Martin is the team’s leading hitter at .478 while senior infielder and pitcher Cooper Mitchell is at .455. Senior infielder Walker Untermann leads the team with 15 RBIs.
Acalanes is at the other end of the spectrum, winners of five of six after a 2-5-1 start. Junior infielder Tyler Winkles, also a highly recruited quarterback in football, leads the team with a .383 average and nine stolen bases. Riley Gates (2-3, 2.49 ERA, 30 strikeouts) is the team’s top pitcher.
The teams have played three times, all since 2022, with Marin Catholic owning a 2-1 lead. Acalanes won last year’s game 8-7.
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