San Francisco, CA
NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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We made a model to determine the odds for every potential San Francisco 49ers playoff opponent.
As the NFL regular season comes to a close today, the final pieces of the NFL playoff picture are falling into place. The San Francisco 49ers have already secured the top seed in the NFC, but their path to the Super Bowl is far from clear, as one of nine potential teams will travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners in the home team’s first playoff game.
The Niners plan to rest a number of their starters today, similar to their opponent–the Los Angeles Rams–who have already secured a wild-card spot. On its face, this afternoon’s game appears to hold little meaning; However, it will play a pivotal role in shaping the now-blurry NFC playoff picture, as only the No. 1 seed is currently secured.
So, who will the 49ers first playoff opponent be? Well, that’s easy–we’ll just create a model. And by “create,” I mean “borrow” (with permission, h/t below) from existing models, mix them together with my predictive model, toss it in the simulation oven for 45 minutes at 350 degrees, and voilà!
The San Francisco 49ers will play one of the following teams:
Los Angeles Rams
Again? Yes, the most likely team among San Francisco’s nine potential opponents is the one the 49ers play today, and the two squads may clash again, regardless of the outcome of the game. With a victory today, the Rams will secure the No. 6 seed; If the Niners prevail, Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. Either way, the Rams will play one of three potential teams: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, or the Detroit Lions, and a victory in the opening round will most likely send the Rams back to the Bay Area the following week. Although this is the most likely scenario among many, it’s far from a sure thing at 26 percent.
Philadelphia Eagles
“Been there, done that.” But not so fast, because the Eagles may be back again–although this time, it won’t be on their home field. If the Eagles lose or the Cowboys win, Philadelphia is relegated to the No. 5 seed, and will face the winner of the NFC South. In this scenario, if Philadelphia is only wild-card team to pull off an upset, their next game will be at Levi’s Stadium. Overall, a repeat playoff matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is the second most-likely outcome for the Niners, at 23 percent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If all three NFC division winners win on their home turf next week, the NFC South Champion will head to the Bay in the second round. This team is most likely to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after winning four of their last five games, will secure the top spot in the NFC South with a victory over the two-win Carolina Panthers today. Overall, the odds of a 49ers-Bucs matchup in the divisional round are 18 percent.
Green Bay Packers
Today’s 49ers game has a clear and direct impact on this scenario. While the Green Bay Packers have a slight chance of holding on to a wild-card spot if they lose to the 7-9 Chicago Bears today, the 8-8 Packers are in if they win. Green Bay will be locked into one of the two last playoff spots, along with the 9-win Rams. Since Green Bay holds the tie-breaker, the outcome of today’s 49ers-Rams game will determine the order of the two final teams. If Green Bay pulls off an upset next week, The 49ers’ first opponent will be either the Rams or the Packers; the odds it’s the Packers? 14 percent.
Seattle Seahawks
A Packers loss would open the door for the Seattle Seahawks to squeeze into the playoffs with a win today, along with a loss by the Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints. If the 7-seed Seahawks win their first game, they’ll head to San Francisco. One year after beating the Seahawks three times in the same season, the 49ers will be forced into a repeat scenario, but only at an 8-percent rate.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints’ playoff road to the Bay is similar to that of the Buccaneers. If the Saints are the unlikely NFC South champs, and all division winners win next week, the 49ers will play New Orleans in the second round. This scenario is a long-shot at 5 percent.
Dallas Cowboys
Like the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys have a broad range of potential playoff paths. If the Cowboys lose their way back into the top wild-card spot, they’ll face the winner of the NFC South. If Dallas can then win on the road, and the two remaining division winners prevail, then yet another 49ers-Cowboys playoff game is on the horizon. But in the end, the odds are unlikely, at just 4 percent.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s technically possible for the 7-win Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. If they do, and then take a similar path as the one described above, San Francisco would be their second round opponent. It’s rather difficult to picture this scenario, which comes in at approximately 1 percent.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs, which would require a victory, and a lot of help–including losses by both the Packers and Seahawks, as well as one of the NFC South’s top-2 teams. If the Vikings are in, and then pull off the upset in the opening round, their next matchup would be the 49ers. Yes, the odds are more than zero, but just barely, at less than 1 percent.
Credit to nflverse for significant portions of code and data.
Thanks to Sebastian Carl, Ben Baldwin, Lee Sharpe, Tan Ho, and John Edwards.
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
The San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday, guaranteeing a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage. The team still has one more game to play, a somewhat inconsequential clash with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams earned a playoff berth this weekend by defeating the New York Giants and witnessing the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Seattle Seahawks.
Able to bypass the first week of playoff games, the 49ers will await the weakest-seeded victor from the Wild Card Round.
Below are the current playoff standings with Week 17 in the books. This is what the NFC postseason picture would look like of the season
On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. With little at stake in their regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 provides an excellent opportunity for some ailing players, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, to rest and recover.
However, only some starters will get the week off entirely. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained this week that the 49ers still need to field a team against the Rams.
“When you give guys the game off, practice changes, too, and that can end up hurting guys a lot, and you end up just developing bad
The San Francisco 49ers have disclosed their quarterback strategy for the upcoming regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters that Brock Purdy will not play on Sunday, providing the quarterback a two-week break leading into the playoffs.
Earlier today, the Rams announced that Carson Wentz would start against the 49ers instead of Matthew Stafford. While San Francisco has secured the No. 1 seed in the postseason, Los Angeles will be seeded either sixth or seventh, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game.
“Brock’s the only guy for sure I know I don’t plan on playing,” Shanahan said.
That means it will be Sam
Safety Tashaun Gipson was on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s lengthy list of San Francisco 49ers players who will not practice on Wednesday, the first on-field session ahead of the team’s regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Gipson is sidelined with a quad strain and will not recover in time to play this weekend.
“Gip ended up—I think we got it yesterday—he had a quad strain, so that could be anywhere seven to 10 days,” Shanahan informed reporters. “So the odds—that can heal faster, too—but just with our situation, the odds aren’t there.”
The other 49ers players not expected to practice on Wednesday are defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot, knee), running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), guard Jon
San Francisco, CA
Live Updates: San Francisco Primary Election 2026
Welcome to our running tally of Election Night results. Or, as this is California, well beyond tonight, as results continue to trickle in.
The first batch of results should arrive at 8:45 p.m., with three more to follow tonight. The Department of Elections has the breakdown.
San Francisco is voting in three special elections, for District 2 and District 4 supervisors and for a Board of Education member. Both supervisor races are referendums on housing, especially District 2, while the main backdrop of the D4 race is all the hot feelings around the fate of the Sunset Dunes Park (nee Great Highway).
The winners of all three special races will have to compete again in November for their seats.
Keeping it local, SF is also voting on four ballot measures. Prop A is for a bond to pay for an emergency water-system. B is for term limits. C and D are dueling measures related to the “overpaid CEO” tax. (Links go to our reporting on each race or issue; or click here for our Election 2026 page.)
Vote local, think national: Which two candidates will advance to the November election to replace Nancy Pelosi?
Statewide races include the primaries for governor, education superintendent, lieutenant governor, and much more.
Polls close soon. If you haven’t voted yet, find your polling station here.
Tuesday, June 2, 5:40 p.m.
Two and a half hours until our polls close. Before we go down the local rabbit hole, a reminder that other states have primary action today: New Jersey, Iowa, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Montana.
Why does it take so long to get results in California? CalMatters has you covered on that story. We shouldn’t expect a call tonight on the governor’s race.
The last big election was November 5, 2024. (Remember?) Ten days later, there were still races to call in San Francisco.
So if you’re waiting for the pundits (and maybe even us) to tell you What It All Means, you might have to wait a while.
More from The Frisc…
San Francisco, CA
San Francisco voters to decide on dueling measures on Top Executive Pay Tax changes
San Francisco voters weighed in Tuesday on two competing measures that seek to change the Top Executive Pay Tax, with one of the measures also including a change to the Gross Receipts Tax.
Should both measures pass, the one with the most votes will take effect, according to the propositions’ legal text.
Currently, the measures state that most businesses with San Francisco gross receipts up to $5 million are exempt from the Gross Receipts Tax. And businesses that use more than half of their city payroll for in-house administrative and management services pay an Administrative Office Tax instead of a Gross Receipts Tax.
The Top Executive Pay Tax is a tax some large businesses pay if their highest-paid managerial employee earns more than 100 times the median pay of their San Francisco employees. Businesses that have city gross receipts up to $5 million and are not subject to the Administrative Office Tax are exempt.
Proposition C
Proposition C states it would increase the number of businesses that could be exempt from the Gross Receipts Tax and would stop any further increases to the “Top Executive Pay Tax” after a final rate bump.
The proposed measure says it would raise the Gross Receipts Tax exemption ceiling to $7.5 million. The $7.5 million ceiling would also apply to the Top Executive Pay Tax exemption.
As for changes to the Top Executive Pay Tax, Proposition C states it would implement the 2028 tax rate increase in 2027, but then stop any future increases.
Supporting Proposition C are Rodney Fong, CEO of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, and Chris Wright, senior vice president of Advance SF, an organization of companies, which includes Bank of America, OpenAI, Waymo, the SF Giants CEO and others.
Fong and Wright, in their argument for the measure, say giving businesses more tax breaks would help keep more employees on payroll and would give companies the ability to “contribute to city services in a predictable and balanced way.”
Critics of Proposition C, such as the San Francisco Tenants Union, slam the measure as “billionaire-backed” and argue it would kill the Top Executive Pay Tax and would hand out more tax breaks to businesses at a time when the city is in a budget deficit and faces cuts to essential services.
Proposition D
Proposition D also seeks to change the Top Executive Pay Tax, which is collected from some large businesses where the highest-paid managerial employee earns more than 100 times the median compensation paid to other employees.
If approved, the measure would change the calculation of the tax using the compensation of all employees, not just employees based in San Francisco. Top Executive Pay Tax rates would also be increased for San Francisco gross receipts and payroll.
Supporters have billed the measure as a way to counteract federal cuts to Medicaid. A report by the City Controller’s Office said the measure could result in $250 million to $300 million in additional revenue.
“Proposition D is the solution to our budget deficit. It asks large corporations — not small businesses, not working families — to contribute a little more,” supporters said in the city’s official voter guide.
The measure has the backing of most of the Board of Supervisors, along with labor unions and Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
Opponents, including Mayor Daniel Lurie and state Sen. Scott Wiener, have argued Proposition D would negatively impact the city’s recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.
“San Francisco is already one of the most expensive cities in the country to live and do business. Adding extreme and unpredictable tax increases risks driving employers away just as we are trying to bring jobs, workers, and foot traffic back downtown,” said Supervisor Matt Dorsey in the city’s voter guide.
San Francisco, CA
San Francisco ‘adult supremacy’ workshop brands teachers as oppressors — as fringe trend spreads in California schools
A San Francisco public school reportedly hosted a workshop on “adult supremacy” — a new woke trend labeling teachers and adults “oppressors” that’s quietly gaining traction in California.
The confab, held at John O’Connell High School during an “Ethnic Studies Everywhere” weekend seminar in April, was titled “Youth as Knowledge Producers: Challenging Adult Supremacy Through Ethnic Studies,” according to an attendee who spoke with The Post.
“Due to systemic power dynamics inherently the relationship between students and educators is an oppressive one. Oppressor (educator) & oppressed (student),” a presentation slide explained.
The workshop was led by Jennifer Sanchez, a third-year ethnic studies educator in the Central Valley, and convened by Teachers 4 Social Justice, a nonprofit that aims to create “empowering learning environments, more equitable access to resources and power, and realizing a just and caring culture,” according to its website.
Teachers 4 Social Justice was founded by local teacher activist Jeremiah Jeffries, who led an unpopular push to rename public schools during the pandemic that was abandoned after sparking outrage from local parents.
So-called adult supremacy “constructs adults as developed, mature, intelligent, and experienced, based solely on their age and ensures that adults control the resources and make the decisions in society,” the presentation further explained.
Success “within the Western context” is “demanding, overwhelming, and dehumanizing,” the presentation claimed.
Friends of Lowell Foundation, which advocates for academic merit at San Francisco schools, compiled the “adult supremacy” slides.
Another slide obtained by The Post cited the work of academic Jackson Matos, who is mentioned as connecting “adultism” to cultural imperialism, marginalization, exploitation, powerlessness and violence.
“We have knowledge and life experience, and it is our job as parents and teachers to impart information on the next generation, on our kids,” one flabbergasted San Francisco parent, who asked not to be named, told The Post.
“Given that a large percentage of students in the district do not meet grade level standards in ELA and math, our focus as a school district is clearly way off track,” the parent said.
Friends of Lowell Foundation has taken legal action surrounding the school district’s controversial “ethnic studies” curriculum, which was made a one-year requirement for high school freshman this year.
The San Francisco teachers’ group isn’t the only organization blaming “adultism” for society’s failures.
Adam Fletcher is a consultant who counts California school boards and agencies among his clients. He’s made “adultism” a centerpiece of equity training aimed at teachers.
“Adultism, as an idea, is bias towards adults,” Fletcher said in an online seminar held by TEACH Los Angeles, an educators’ network funded through grants from the California Community College Chancellor’s Office, per its YouTube page.
Likewise, the Oakland Youth Commission announced last year a training for city employees about adultism, which is blamed for taking power away from kids, according to slides published online.
The Santa Clara Behavioral Health Services Department sponsored an “anti-oppression training series” that explores how “ageism and adultism” fuel discrimination.
“Participants consider how the myth of independence, rooted in settler colonial capitalism, contributes to the marginalization of youth & elders by diminishing agency, excluding perspectives, & reinforcing stereotypes in behavioral health practice,” an invitation read.
San Francisco Unified School District didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The district may be in hot water over its ethnic studies program, with Superintendent Maria Su due to appear at a June 10 congressional hearing about parents’ rights and “inappropriate content” in schools.
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