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NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?

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NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?


Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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We made a model to determine the odds for every potential San Francisco 49ers playoff opponent.

As the NFL regular season comes to a close today, the final pieces of the NFL playoff picture are falling into place. The San Francisco 49ers have already secured the top seed in the NFC, but their path to the Super Bowl is far from clear, as one of nine potential teams will travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners in the home team’s first playoff game.

The Niners plan to rest a number of their starters today, similar to their opponent–the Los Angeles Rams–who have already secured a wild-card spot. On its face, this afternoon’s game appears to hold little meaning; However, it will play a pivotal role in shaping the now-blurry NFC playoff picture, as only the No. 1 seed is currently secured.

So, who will the 49ers first playoff opponent be? Well, that’s easy–we’ll just create a model. And by “create,” I mean “borrow” (with permission, h/t below) from existing models, mix them together with my predictive model, toss it in the simulation oven for 45 minutes at 350 degrees, and voilà!

The San Francisco 49ers will play one of the following teams:

Los Angeles Rams

Again? Yes, the most likely team among San Francisco’s nine potential opponents is the one the 49ers play today, and the two squads may clash again, regardless of the outcome of the game. With a victory today, the Rams will secure the No. 6 seed; If the Niners prevail, Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. Either way, the Rams will play one of three potential teams: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, or the Detroit Lions, and a victory in the opening round will most likely send the Rams back to the Bay Area the following week. Although this is the most likely scenario among many, it’s far from a sure thing at 26 percent.

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Philadelphia Eagles

“Been there, done that.” But not so fast, because the Eagles may be back again–although this time, it won’t be on their home field. If the Eagles lose or the Cowboys win, Philadelphia is relegated to the No. 5 seed, and will face the winner of the NFC South. In this scenario, if Philadelphia is only wild-card team to pull off an upset, their next game will be at Levi’s Stadium. Overall, a repeat playoff matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is the second most-likely outcome for the Niners, at 23 percent.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If all three NFC division winners win on their home turf next week, the NFC South Champion will head to the Bay in the second round. This team is most likely to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after winning four of their last five games, will secure the top spot in the NFC South with a victory over the two-win Carolina Panthers today. Overall, the odds of a 49ers-Bucs matchup in the divisional round are 18 percent.

Green Bay Packers

Today’s 49ers game has a clear and direct impact on this scenario. While the Green Bay Packers have a slight chance of holding on to a wild-card spot if they lose to the 7-9 Chicago Bears today, the 8-8 Packers are in if they win. Green Bay will be locked into one of the two last playoff spots, along with the 9-win Rams. Since Green Bay holds the tie-breaker, the outcome of today’s 49ers-Rams game will determine the order of the two final teams. If Green Bay pulls off an upset next week, The 49ers’ first opponent will be either the Rams or the Packers; the odds it’s the Packers? 14 percent.

Seattle Seahawks

A Packers loss would open the door for the Seattle Seahawks to squeeze into the playoffs with a win today, along with a loss by the Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints. If the 7-seed Seahawks win their first game, they’ll head to San Francisco. One year after beating the Seahawks three times in the same season, the 49ers will be forced into a repeat scenario, but only at an 8-percent rate.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints’ playoff road to the Bay is similar to that of the Buccaneers. If the Saints are the unlikely NFC South champs, and all division winners win next week, the 49ers will play New Orleans in the second round. This scenario is a long-shot at 5 percent.

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Dallas Cowboys

Like the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys have a broad range of potential playoff paths. If the Cowboys lose their way back into the top wild-card spot, they’ll face the winner of the NFC South. If Dallas can then win on the road, and the two remaining division winners prevail, then yet another 49ers-Cowboys playoff game is on the horizon. But in the end, the odds are unlikely, at just 4 percent.

Atlanta Falcons

It’s technically possible for the 7-win Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. If they do, and then take a similar path as the one described above, San Francisco would be their second round opponent. It’s rather difficult to picture this scenario, which comes in at approximately 1 percent.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs, which would require a victory, and a lot of help–including losses by both the Packers and Seahawks, as well as one of the NFC South’s top-2 teams. If the Vikings are in, and then pull off the upset in the opening round, their next matchup would be the 49ers. Yes, the odds are more than zero, but just barely, at less than 1 percent.

Credit to nflverse for significant portions of code and data.
Thanks to Sebastian Carl, Ben Baldwin, Lee Sharpe, Tan Ho, and John Edwards.

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The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.

The San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday, guaranteeing a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage. The team still has one more game to play, a somewhat inconsequential clash with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams earned a playoff berth this weekend by defeating the New York Giants and witnessing the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Seattle Seahawks.

Able to bypass the first week of playoff games, the 49ers will await the weakest-seeded victor from the Wild Card Round.

Below are the current playoff standings with Week 17 in the books. This is what the NFC postseason picture would look like of the season

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On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. With little at stake in their regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 provides an excellent opportunity for some ailing players, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, to rest and recover.

However, only some starters will get the week off entirely. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained this week that the 49ers still need to field a team against the Rams.

“When you give guys the game off, practice changes, too, and that can end up hurting guys a lot, and you end up just developing bad

The San Francisco 49ers have disclosed their quarterback strategy for the upcoming regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters that Brock Purdy will not play on Sunday, providing the quarterback a two-week break leading into the playoffs.

Earlier today, the Rams announced that Carson Wentz would start against the 49ers instead of Matthew Stafford. While San Francisco has secured the No. 1 seed in the postseason, Los Angeles will be seeded either sixth or seventh, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game.

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“Brock’s the only guy for sure I know I don’t plan on playing,” Shanahan said.

That means it will be Sam

Safety Tashaun Gipson was on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s lengthy list of San Francisco 49ers players who will not practice on Wednesday, the first on-field session ahead of the team’s regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Gipson is sidelined with a quad strain and will not recover in time to play this weekend.

“Gip ended up—I think we got it yesterday—he had a quad strain, so that could be anywhere seven to 10 days,” Shanahan informed reporters. “So the odds—that can heal faster, too—but just with our situation, the odds aren’t there.”

The other 49ers players not expected to practice on Wednesday are defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot, knee), running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), guard Jon

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San Francisco, CA

Bay Bridge closes eastbound lanes due to fire, officials say

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Bay Bridge closes eastbound lanes due to fire, officials say


Crews responded to the fire shortly after 3 p.m., he said, and were still engaged in “an aggressive firefight” nearly an hour later.

“We’ve got about 40 firefighters on the island attempting to reach this fire in steep terrain and high winds,” he said.

Fire boats from both San Francisco and Alameda County were also dispatched to the scene, Schorr added.



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San Francisco’s Bay to Breakers footrace happens Sunday. Here’s what to know.

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San Francisco’s Bay to Breakers footrace happens Sunday. Here’s what to know.


The 113th edition of San Francisco’s Bay to Breakers will bring thousands of runners to the city’s streets early Sunday morning, along with street closures to accommodate the roving party.

Famous for its wild costumes, nude and/or scantily clad participants and themed running groups, the freewheeling footrace is one of those unique “only in San Francisco” events that has become an institution with over a hundred years of history behind it.

What is the Bay To Breakers?

The Bay to Breakers is an annual footrace held in San Francisco that usually happens on the third Sunday of May. The race was started in 1912 with the intent of raising spirits in the city that was still recovering from the deadly 1906 earthquake as well as to promote the then upcoming Panama-Pacific International Exposition that happened in 1915.

The race has continued long after its initial purpose, though there were points that participation dipped as low as only 50 runners during World War II. Still, the race continued to be held every year, gradually building in popularity and becoming an iconic and irreverent fixture of San Francisco’s culture.

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According to the Wikipedia page on the race, the Bay to Breakers “has been run for more consecutive years over a given course and length than has any other footrace in the world.” The race entered the annals of the Guinness Book of World Records in 1986 when that year’s edition boasted 110,000 participants, setting the record as the world’s largest footrace. 

What is the Bay to Breakers route?

The Bay to Breakers route has changed slightly over the decades. Initially, the starting point was the Ferry Building, where racers would run along Market Street to Golden Gate Avenue before turning onto Divisadero Street. However, in 1968, organizers moved the start to less busy Howard Street, while the climb up Divisadero was moved to Hayes Street. The current course cuts over from Howard St. at Ninth St., turning west along Hayes St. and up the challenging Hayes Street Hill near Alamo Square. After the hill, the course follows the Golden Gate Park Panhandle on Fell Street before moving west through Golden Gate Park to the Great Highway and Ocean Beach, where the course ends. 

Bay to Breakers race route map
Bay to Breakers race route map

Bay to Breakers


The complete Bay to Breakers course is 7.46 miles (12 km) long. The route was originally set up by organizers to emulate another venerable Bay Area event, the Dipsea Race. That Marin County footrace founded in 1905 travels from downtown Mill Valley to Stinson Beach.

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When does the Bay to Breakers start?

This Sunday race begins at 8 a.m., with the first wave of runners taking off from the Howard Street starting line at that time and subsequent waves following until 8:45 a.m. The course will close at 12:30 p.m. on race day at the intersection of JFK and Chain of Lakes Golden Gate Park. Race organizers advise that participants who have not passed that intersection by 12:30 p.m. will not have the opportunity to cross the finish line on the Great Highway, which closes promptly at 1 p.m. More detailed information on the Bay to Breakers can be found on the race’s official website.

What is the traffic impact from Bay to Breakers?

The Bay to Breakers takes place early enough on Sunday morning that the traffic from the huge throng of runners and attendant street closures doesn’t see huge impacts. However, there are closures across the city, but for preparation and for the race itself.

The earliest street closures begin Saturday at 7 p.m. in the downtown staging area near the start of the race at Main between Mission and Folsom. That area remains closed until Sunday at 5 p.m. The race will also shut down the Great Highway between Sloat and JFK between Saturday at 9 p.m. until Sunday at 4 p.m.  

On Sunday morning, there will be closures all along the race route, with a concentration of street closures downtown in the staging area starting at 3 a.m. They include: 

  • Beale between Mission and Folsom 
  • Fremont between Mission and Folsom 
  • First St. between Market and Folsom (Muni allowed from Market to Mission) 
  • Second St. between Mission and Folsom 
  • New Montgomery between Mission and Howard 
  • Howard between Beale and Third St .

There will also be intersection closures on Howard at Beale, Fremont, First, Second, and New Montgomery. Drivers should anticipate heavy traffic along the race route due to street closures. There will also be Sunday morning closures for multiple entrances to Golden Gate Park during the race. 

While the Bay to Breakers will be forcing a number of bus route changes, the race is also changing Muni’s usual weekend service time to accommodate the expected crowds. The Market Street Subway will open early at 6 a.m. Sunday morning, with extra service provided on the N Judah and S Shuttle lines between West Portal and Embarcadero stations. Full details on street closures and service impacts are available on the SFMTA website. 

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BART is also providing four trains with limited stops before regular weekend BART service to help transport Bay to Breakers runners. The special service will get race participants to the Embarcadero station at around 7 a.m.  

The special early morning trains will pick up passengers with limited service from the Millbrae, Daly City, and 16th Street Mission stations in San Francisco and on the Peninsula and from the West Oakland, MacArthur, Pleasant Hill, El Cerrito del Norte, Bay Fair, and Dublin stations in the East Bay. These stations will be the only stations opened early for service. The four early trains will go out of service once they drop riders off at Embarcadero. Riders will not be able to board those trains at Embarcadero. 

More information on the special service is available on the BART website. Caltrain and Golden Gate Ferry also will be providing additional service to accommodate Bay to Breakers participants. Public transit is recommended for those running in the race due to possible traffic and parking issues.

Is the Bay to Breakers still a roving party?

While there inevitably will be some drinking among participants (not to mention spectators who line the race route), back in 2009 San Francisco city officials and race organizers made changes to the rules that banned the use of floats (which were often used to transport full kegs of beer), alcohol, drunkenness and nudity. The changes were in response to residents who lived along the race route who complained about problems with public drunkenness and urination in their neighborhoods. While the race has become somewhat toned down since those changes, there is still a festive and hedonistic atmosphere to the proceedings. 

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Thairo Estrada's go-ahead 3-run homer in the fifth inning lifts Giants past Rockies 10-5

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Thairo Estrada's go-ahead 3-run homer in the fifth inning lifts Giants past Rockies 10-5


SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Thairo Estrada hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the fifth inning and singled twice, Luis Matos drove in a career-high five runs and the San Francisco Giants beat the Colorado Rockies 10-5 on Friday night for their sixth straight victory at home in the series.

Matos and Matt Chapman had three hits apiece for a refreshed San Francisco squad coming off its first off day following 16 straight games.

Estrada’s drive to left for his seventh home run of the year chased Colorado right-hander Ryan Feltner (1-4), who gave way to Victor Vodnik. Luis Matos added a key RBI single in the inning for insurance — which mattered when Ezequiel Tovar doubled home a run in the top of the sixth before the Giants added on late.

Matos, who got the Giants going on an RBI double in the fourth, then added an RBI groundout on a bunt in the seventh before Marco Luciano singled two batters later for his first career RBI. Matos capped his outstanding night with a two-run double in the eighth.

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This was an especially tough day for the Giants, who learned earlier in the day that rookie center fielder Jung Hoo Lee needs season-ending surgery on his dislocated left shoulder that he injured crashing into the outfield wall.

Still, it was a festive spring evening as former Giants lefty 80-year-old Masanori Murakami threw out the ceremonial first pitch on Japanese Heritage Night. He sported a black Giants jacket signed by former teammates Willie Mays and the late Willie McCovey.

Jordan Beck homered in the second inning for Colorado and Ryan McMahon had a two-run double in the first as the Rockies began the game with four straight hits — including three consecutive doubles — off rookie right-hander Mason Black.

Black was recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to make his third career start still seeking his first major league victory. His night ended after he hit Jacob Stallings with a pitch to start the fourth.

Sean Hjelle (1-1) relieved and pitched two innings for the win.

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Even trailing by three after the first half-inning, the Giants continued to pound the Rockies pitchers.

TRAINER’S ROOM

Rockies: OF Nolan Jones and INF/OF Kris Bryant, both sidelined with strained lower backs, will play three straight days with Triple-A Albuquerque and are likely to join the Rockies in Oakland on Tuesday. … C Elias Diaz, who exited Tuesday’s game at San Diego in the third inning with a sore left hand, isn’t expected to need a stint on the IL and is getting treatment for the injury.

Giants: RHP Keaton Winn was placed on the 15-day injured list retroactive to Wednesday with a strained pitching forearm. … OF Jorge Soler returned from his rehab assignment and was reinstated from the 10-day IL and played designated hitter batting leadoff, while INF Casey Schmitt was optioned to Sacramento.

CASALI’S RETURN

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Curt Casali, who signed a one-year contract Wednesday to rejoin the Giants, can earn $1 million while in majors and $150,000 while in minors.

UP NEXT

LHP Ty Blach (1-1, 3.00 ERA) pitches the middle game for the Rockies against his former club and LHP Kyle Harrison (3-1, 3.42) takes the mound for San Francisco.



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