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Wealthier Asian American and Latino voters in Orange County may be pivotal in upcoming elections

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Wealthier Asian American and Latino voters in Orange County may be pivotal in upcoming elections

Robert Baca’s political compass has always pointed toward the Republican Party, but lately he hasn’t felt as at home in the GOP.

Though he voted for Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections, Baca distances himself from the culture wars that seem to fire up today’s die-hard Republicans. Instead, he wants Washington to tackle the turbulent economy and rising costs of daily life.

He’s been called a RINO — short for “Republican in name only” — when he’s suggested that both parties should work together. He still backs conservative candidates most of the time, but he’s not a sure GOP vote anymore.

“It’s not about the party for me,” said Baca, 46. “It’s about the policy and the person.”

Baca lives in one of four Orange County congressional districts that are expected to be among the nation’s most competitive in the 2024 election as Republicans and Democrats fight to control the House.

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Baca, a small-business owner, is also part of an important emerging group in the Orange County political landscape that UC Irvine researchers in a poll published Wednesday described as “modestly partisan Republicans.” This group differs from the traditional GOP voter in a few key areas: they’re wealthier, they’re diverse, they’re more socially liberal and they’re less resistant to being taxed to help solve issues related to climate change and homelessness, said Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology, who spearheaded the poll.

Once considered a heart of Southern California conservatives, Orange County’s transformation into a more culturally, economically and politically diverse region has forced congressional candidates to find ways to appeal to voters without a strong party preference. Voters such as Baca not only will be pivotal to who Orange County sends to Washington, but also in determining the balance of power in Congress, Gould said.

“The fight is over the independents who could go either way and the voters who are not strongly attached to a party who may simply choose not to vote,” Gould said, adding that Orange County “should be the place that political eyes are glued to for the future of the next Congress.”

Orange County’s demographics have shifted dramatically in the last 20 years. In 2000, slightly more than half of the county’s population was white. Latinos made up roughly 31% and Asians, 13.5% of the population. Today, the majority of Orange County residents are people of color. Roughly 38% of the population is white, while 34% is Latino and 23% is Asian, according to census data.

Two decades ago, Republicans held an 18 percentage point advantage over Democrats in voter registration in Orange County. Today, Democrats enjoy a slight edge.

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Orange County has been a political battleground since the 2018 election, when Democrats swept the region’s four congressional seats.

But it hasn’t been an easy fight for Democrats. Republicans reclaimed two congressional seats in 2020 with the election of Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach and Rep. Young Kim of Anaheim Hills who became two of the first Korean American women to serve in Congress. Their wins came even as President Biden carried the county by 9 percentage points. The 2022 midterms proved uneventful — all Orange County incumbents held their seats.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has tracked House and Senate races for decades, has listed four Orange County congressional districts, including those held by Steel and Kim, as some of the most competitive races in the nation.

And how well candidates perform could rely significantly on how they woo a growing portion of Orange County voters who aren’t highly partisan.

UC Irvine’s poll, detailed in the report “Red County, Blue County, Orange County,” shows that modestly partisan Republicans in the region have become a “political anomaly.” Unlike strongly partisan party members, who are mostly white, a majority of modestly partisan Republicans are Asian and Latino voters, making them demographically similar to Democrats. Nearly 50% of them earn more than $100,000 per year.

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They also don’t share the same cultural agenda as bedrock Republicans. When asked about their view of Walt Disney Co., more than 40% of those surveyed who were moderately attached to the GOP held somewhat favorable feelings toward the brand. Among those strongly attached to the Republican Party, less than 20% held somewhat favorable views of the entertainment giant.

Disney has been embroiled in a high-profile legal and political battle with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a candidate for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, that started last year after the company publicly opposed the Parental Rights in Education Act, often referred to by critics as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. The legislation, which DeSantis supported, barred classroom instruction and discussion about sexual orientation and gender identity in some elementary school grades.

The Disney question, Gould says, provides a window into how the modestly attached Republicans view hotly contested cultural issues that GOP politicians such as DeSantis have capitalized on for support.

“It strikes me that some of the cultural dog whistles don’t motivate them quite the same way,” Gould said.

At the same time, Democrats could use the same cultural issues to “scare some of the independents and modestly attached Republicans to either split their tickets or perhaps get them to just not vote at all in that race,” Gould added.

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Although Baca, who lives in Kim’s congressional district, said he’s not sure whom he plans to vote for this November, he hopes the candidates will stick to kitchen-table issues rather than fighting over topics such as whether transgender individuals should be allowed to serve in the military.

“It doesn’t need to be a fight. We don’t need to do the bashing,” he said. “If we had people in Congress that would just not be so belligerent and not be so narrow minded … we’d have a lot more success.”

Data outlined in the UC Irvine poll indicated that appealing to Asian and Latino voters, particularly those without a strong party preference, could play a crucial role in a candidate’s success in the general election. The poll found that Asian and Latino residents make up the majority of independent voters and those who are loosely attached to a political party.

Republicans in Orange County for years have focused on recruiting Asian American candidates for local races and have put significant resources into attracting Asian American and Pacific Islander voters to win seats. Over the summer, the Republican Party opened a new community center in Little Saigon, home to one of the largest Vietnamese communities outside Vietnam, to aid in recruitment and training volunteers for voter outreach.

But they haven’t had the same success with Latinos. Randall Avila, the executive director of the Republican Party of Orange County, said this will be the focus heading into November.

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“We are going to try to kind of replicate what we have been successful with Asian Americans and extend that into the Latino community,” he said.

California State Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who is running in the hotly contested 47th Congressional District currently represented by Democrat Rep. Katie Porter, said the Democratic Party “as an institution is kind of behind the eight ball” in connecting with Asian American voters.

“I think a lot of times Asian American and Latino groups feel like they’re left out in the cold out here,” Min said.

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Bill to ban sex offenders from running for office fails in California senate committee

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Bill to ban sex offenders from running for office fails in California senate committee

California Democratic senators failed to advance a proposal Tuesday that would have barred registered sex offenders from running for office.

State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) voted against Assembly Bill 2753, while fellow Sens. Tom Umberg (D-Santa Ana) and Ben Allen (D-Santa Monica) abstained from a vote that ultimately failed 2-1-2 in the Senate Elections and Constitutional Committee.

The committee’s lone Republican, Steve Choi (R-Irvine), and Sen. Sabrina Cervantes (D-Riverside) voted in favor of the bill, which is likely dead because it failed to get support from a majority of the five-member panel.

AB 2753 could be reviewed in a floor session Thursday, but staff from the office of Assemblywoman Esmeralda Soria (D-Fresno), who authored the bill, are conceding that’s unlikely.

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The defeat comes on the heels of unanimous support, including a 60-0 vote in favor on the Assembly Floor on May 7.

“I am deeply disappointed and disheartened after the Senate Elections Committee has failed to advance AB 2753, a bill that would have prohibited any registered sex offender in the State of California from running for local or state public office,” Soria said in a statement.

The bill’s wording said the legislation would “prohibit a person from being a candidate for, or elected to, any state or local elective office if the person has ever been required to register as a sex offender.”

Inquiries to the offices of Sens. Wiener, Umberg and Allen were not immediately returned.

Sex offenses in California are broken up into three tiers. First-tier offenses call for a minimum of 10 years placement on the sex offender registry. Second-tier offenses call for a minimum of 20 years and third tier crimes could result in a lifetime on the registry.

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The types of offenses for each tier vary. Tier 1 offenses range from indecent exposure to misdemeanor child pornography and sexual battery. Tier 2 includes incest and penetration with a foreign object, and Tier 3 includes felony possession of child pornography, rape and pimping and pandering of a minor.

Wiener asked for amendments to the bill during the bill’s review and in the committee meeting, including that the lifetime ban only be applied to Tier 3 members.

He pointed to committee analysis of the bill that could affect so-called “Romeo and Juliet” couples — those close in age, for instance with one partner being 19 and the other being 17. If the younger partner sent sexually explicit digital content to the older partner (a misdemeanor), this law could ban the older partner from public office for life.

There were also concerns listed in the analysis that the registry, which dates back to 1947, could include LGBTQ+ offenders from decades ago who were convicted of offenses that are no longer crimes.

Wiener mentioned in the committee meeting civil rights strategist and fighter Bayard Rustin being placed on the California sex offender’s registry list after being arrested by Pasadena Police for having consensual sex with another man in 1953.

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“Without the amendment contained in the analysis, I will be voting ‘no’ on this bill and recommending that the committee vote ‘no,’” Wiener said at the committee hearing.

He added that the sex offender list was “not punishment,” but instead “a tool for law enforcement to monitor who may potentially cause a risk.”

While Soria agreed to one bill amendment, she did not accept other provisions, including the elimination of lifetime bans on Tier 1 or 2 offenses.

“The bottom line is this: I was not willing to make additional amendments to this bill,” she said. “I made a promise to my community that I would do everything in my power to ensure they would never have to go through something like this again. Accepting additional amendments to this bill would have jeopardized that promise.”

Some of the impetus behind her bill revolved around the June 2 Fresno City Council election. Registered sex offender Rene Campos fell short of the necessary votes in his bid to run for Central Valley Council.

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He was charged with possession of child pornography in 2018 and hosted his campaign kickoff in front of an elementary school.

Nelson Esparza, Fresno City Council President, spoke at the Senate Elections and Constitutional Committee meeting in favor of AB 2753.

“My office received dozens of calls from our residents asking how this could be allowed,” Esparza said of Campos’ candidacy. “AB 2753 closes this loophole.”

It’s unclear if this bill will be reintroduced next year at least at the Assembly level, as Soria is running for the state senate in November.

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Mamdani ripped for claiming victory over capitalism after NYC’s multi-billion dollar taxpayer funded bailout

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Mamdani ripped for claiming victory over capitalism after NYC’s multi-billion dollar taxpayer funded bailout

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New York City’s mayor is again under fire after spewing outlandish claims that his socialist policies are to credit for a balanced budget in the Big Apple, just after the city received a multi-billion dollar bailout from the state.

“In January, our administration inherited a $12 billion budget deficit — a fiscal crisis greater than the Great Recession,” Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in a Tuesday post on X announcing that the debt had been cleared.

“We balanced the budget by taxing the rich and making government more efficient,” Mamdani continued. “We did not balance this budget on the backs of working people, and we never will.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks during a primary-night watch party for NYC Congressional candidate Claire Valdez at 99 Scott Studio on June 23, 2026 in the East Williamsburg neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

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MAMDANI ALLOCATES $500K FOR REPARATIONS TALKS AS NYC FACES $5.4B DEFICIT

But the real reason the budget it balanced is because the city was handed $1.5 billion by the state of New York in January — funded by working class taxpayers across the state — as part of a multi-year plan to bail out the fiscally-challenged city. In late May, the city received another $4 billion.

Of the combined $8 billion provided to the city’s bailout fund under former Mayor Eric Adams’ tenure and now Mamdani’s mayorship, $5 billion was directly earmarked for the city to address fiscal measures. This includes allowing city government to defer pension contributions to close the budgetary gap.

Mamdani’s claims about socialist policies producing results — and his failure to mention the massive bailouts provided by taxpayer dollars — did not fly on social media.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds media availability press conference and makes an announcement on abortion rights at the office on 633 3rd Avenue. (Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)

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MAMDANI ALLOCATES $500K FOR REPARATIONS TALKS AS NYC FACES $5.4B DEFICIT

“This is a lie,” independent journalist Nick Shirley said in a reply to the mayor.

“You balanced the budget by borrowing billions from the NY state government which pushed back pension payments, so you literally took money from ‘the backs of hardworking people.’ Don’t get it twisted,” he added.

Commentator and journalist Nick Sortor also flamed the mayor over the loan and his classification of the bailout.

“Are you saying New Yorkers can ‘balance their budgets’ by taking out massive credit card loans?” he asked sarcastically.

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Independent journalist Nick Shirley sat down for an interview with Riley Gaines as part of the launch of Outkick’s “The Riley Gaines Show.” (OutKick)

BROADCAST NETWORKS TOUT MAMDANI’S VICTORIES, PROCLAIM SOCIALISM IS ‘RESONATING’

“Mamdani balanced the budget by taking money from Albany, who in turn taxed Rochester and Buffalo” another social media user said. “That’s who is paying for all of Mamdani’s free crap.”

In a press conference earlier in the day, Mamdani claimed victory over capitalism.

“Throughout this process I have been reminded of the words of the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek: ‘if socialists understood economics, they wouldn’t be socialists.’”

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A man sleeps on the E train, one of the subway lines most utilized by homeless New Yorkers for shelter, in Queens, New York, on Monday, April 7, 2025. (Victor J. Blue for The Washington Post/Getty Images)

After the Republican National Convention (RNC) posted that clip, Mamdani also faced ridicule for that.

“It always looks good at first until the chickens come home to roost,” one person replied.

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“He’ll soon ‘deliver’ bread lines instead,” said another.

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Mamdani’s office did not return Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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Commentary: The sad inevitability of Justice Alito’s birthright citizenship dissent

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Commentary: The sad inevitability of Justice Alito’s birthright citizenship dissent

In 1913, Antonino Alati left southern Italy to find a better life in a land where many people regarded him as little better than scum.

He joined millions of his fellow countrymen in the United States, where the press vilified Italians as poor, swarthy, violent Catholics who had too many babies, refused to assimilate and could never possibly be considered “white.”

Politicians were already working to shut the door on them. A congressional report released two years before Alati’s arrival cited southern Italians as evidence that “the new immigration as a class is far less intelligent than the old.” They came to the U.S., the report asserted, “with the intention of profiting, in a pecuniary way, by the superior advantages of the new world and then returning to the old country.”

Alati wouldn’t let bigotry win. He soon sent for his wife and children, including his infant son Salvatore. Alati turned to Alito, Salvatore became Samuel. A generation later, the family had a Supreme Court justice in Samuel A. Alito Jr. — the second Italian American, after Antonin Scalia, to sit on the highest court in the land.

During his 2005 confirmation hearings, Alito praised his father as an “extraordinary man who came to the United States as a young child and overcame many difficulties” to ensure a better life for him and his sister. By then, Italian Americans were established as an essential part of this country’s fabric, from music to politics to food.

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It’s the most American of tales — which is why it’s so surprising, yet not, to read Alito’s blistering dissent in the Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision rejecting President Trump’s effort to end birthright citizenship.

If there’s one constant in this country besides death and taxes, it’s how quickly descendants of immigrants, and sometimes immigrants themselves, forget how loathed their ethnic group was and how they proved the haters wrong. Too many become uncharitable to the policies that helped them and the immigrants who followed.

But Alito’s stance against birthright citizenship goes beyond just forgetting his roots. His 39-page opinion describes the supposed impact of undocumented migrants on the U.S., using words — “overran,” “soared,” “exploded,” “massive,” “a stream,” “huge” — that read like the same invective used against Italians in his grandfather and father’s time.

The justice channels anti-Italian conspiracies of the past by casting doubt on the national allegiances of the U.S.-born children of Mexican, Guatemalan and Salvadoran immigrants — the same patriotism test that Italian Americans faced generations ago when xenophobes questioned their Catholicism. Alito claims without evidence that millions of agricultural workers were able to apply for American citizenship after President Reagan’s 1986 amnesty “at least in part because of fraud” — a charge also leveled against Italians who sought to naturalize back in the day.

And so it goes, each passage a jumbled argument dressed up in judicial interpretations largely rejected by his fellow Catholic Supreme Court justices John Roberts, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh. Coney Barrett signed on to the majority opinion that Roberts wrote, and Kavanaugh concurred.

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Rev. William Barber II speaks during a rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court on April 1 while justices heard oral arguments on birthright citizenship.

(Al Drago / Getty Images)

I know how quickly families forget their own immigrant histories. Yet I look at people like Alito and wonder how they ended up thinking the way they do, because I could never imagine doing the same.

My maternal grandmother was born in Arizona to parents who fled their home country during the Mexican Revolution, becoming an American citizen by birthright. My father, who crossed the border in the trunk of a Chevy, legalized his status in an era when it was far easier to do so.

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Like Alito’s paisanes, my Mexican family was also demonized for supposedly being insufficiently American and posing a threat to national unity. They also sacrificed their own dreams so their children and grandchildren could achieve theirs.

And just like Alito, some members of my family have forgotten our history and support Trump or favor some of his immigration policies, dismissing new arrivals as criminals or lazy. That’s why I will always side with undocumented people and welcome anyone who gives birth in this country with the hope that their newborn finds a better life.

It seems from his dissent that Alito somewhat agrees with me. He posits that millions of Americans who were born in this country to parents without papers “have a strong moral claim to be able to remain in the land where they grew up.” Congress “can and should address their situation,” he writes.

The justice blasts birth tourism, where women from China and other countries travel to the U.S. to have a baby, then return home, benefiting from our generosity and offering nothing in return.

I agree that’s a mockery of what being an American should be and ruins it for people who want to contribute to building a better nation. But Alito throws out the baby with the bathwater by failing to recognize that Trump’s attempt to erase birthright citizenship via executive order is presidential overreach based on bigotry, not rule of law. He’d rather cut up the Constitution to spite something he doesn’t like. Thank God his side lost, yet it’s sad that Trump’s pathetic attempt to define who can be an American went as far as it did.

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Alito concludes by stating that the court’s decision to uphold the 14th Amendment is “a mistake that will seriously affect the country’s future.”

What new immigrants might inflict on this country is the perpetual worry of immigration restrictionists — and yet history keeps proving them wrong. Alito’s family did; so did mine. Only in these United States can the progeny of people once portrayed as parasites and invaders side with those making the same argument about the latest batch of newcomers.

History will see Alito’s vote for what it is: a forsaking of the promise his family once fulfilled, to support the people who never wanted them here in the first place.

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