Politics
Wealthier Asian American and Latino voters in Orange County may be pivotal in upcoming elections
Robert Baca’s political compass has always pointed toward the Republican Party, but lately he hasn’t felt as at home in the GOP.
Though he voted for Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections, Baca distances himself from the culture wars that seem to fire up today’s die-hard Republicans. Instead, he wants Washington to tackle the turbulent economy and rising costs of daily life.
He’s been called a RINO — short for “Republican in name only” — when he’s suggested that both parties should work together. He still backs conservative candidates most of the time, but he’s not a sure GOP vote anymore.
“It’s not about the party for me,” said Baca, 46. “It’s about the policy and the person.”
Baca lives in one of four Orange County congressional districts that are expected to be among the nation’s most competitive in the 2024 election as Republicans and Democrats fight to control the House.
Baca, a small-business owner, is also part of an important emerging group in the Orange County political landscape that UC Irvine researchers in a poll published Wednesday described as “modestly partisan Republicans.” This group differs from the traditional GOP voter in a few key areas: they’re wealthier, they’re diverse, they’re more socially liberal and they’re less resistant to being taxed to help solve issues related to climate change and homelessness, said Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology, who spearheaded the poll.
Once considered a heart of Southern California conservatives, Orange County’s transformation into a more culturally, economically and politically diverse region has forced congressional candidates to find ways to appeal to voters without a strong party preference. Voters such as Baca not only will be pivotal to who Orange County sends to Washington, but also in determining the balance of power in Congress, Gould said.
“The fight is over the independents who could go either way and the voters who are not strongly attached to a party who may simply choose not to vote,” Gould said, adding that Orange County “should be the place that political eyes are glued to for the future of the next Congress.”
Orange County’s demographics have shifted dramatically in the last 20 years. In 2000, slightly more than half of the county’s population was white. Latinos made up roughly 31% and Asians, 13.5% of the population. Today, the majority of Orange County residents are people of color. Roughly 38% of the population is white, while 34% is Latino and 23% is Asian, according to census data.
Two decades ago, Republicans held an 18 percentage point advantage over Democrats in voter registration in Orange County. Today, Democrats enjoy a slight edge.
Orange County has been a political battleground since the 2018 election, when Democrats swept the region’s four congressional seats.
But it hasn’t been an easy fight for Democrats. Republicans reclaimed two congressional seats in 2020 with the election of Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach and Rep. Young Kim of Anaheim Hills who became two of the first Korean American women to serve in Congress. Their wins came even as President Biden carried the county by 9 percentage points. The 2022 midterms proved uneventful — all Orange County incumbents held their seats.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has tracked House and Senate races for decades, has listed four Orange County congressional districts, including those held by Steel and Kim, as some of the most competitive races in the nation.
And how well candidates perform could rely significantly on how they woo a growing portion of Orange County voters who aren’t highly partisan.
UC Irvine’s poll, detailed in the report “Red County, Blue County, Orange County,” shows that modestly partisan Republicans in the region have become a “political anomaly.” Unlike strongly partisan party members, who are mostly white, a majority of modestly partisan Republicans are Asian and Latino voters, making them demographically similar to Democrats. Nearly 50% of them earn more than $100,000 per year.
They also don’t share the same cultural agenda as bedrock Republicans. When asked about their view of Walt Disney Co., more than 40% of those surveyed who were moderately attached to the GOP held somewhat favorable feelings toward the brand. Among those strongly attached to the Republican Party, less than 20% held somewhat favorable views of the entertainment giant.
Disney has been embroiled in a high-profile legal and political battle with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a candidate for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, that started last year after the company publicly opposed the Parental Rights in Education Act, often referred to by critics as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. The legislation, which DeSantis supported, barred classroom instruction and discussion about sexual orientation and gender identity in some elementary school grades.
The Disney question, Gould says, provides a window into how the modestly attached Republicans view hotly contested cultural issues that GOP politicians such as DeSantis have capitalized on for support.
“It strikes me that some of the cultural dog whistles don’t motivate them quite the same way,” Gould said.
At the same time, Democrats could use the same cultural issues to “scare some of the independents and modestly attached Republicans to either split their tickets or perhaps get them to just not vote at all in that race,” Gould added.
Although Baca, who lives in Kim’s congressional district, said he’s not sure whom he plans to vote for this November, he hopes the candidates will stick to kitchen-table issues rather than fighting over topics such as whether transgender individuals should be allowed to serve in the military.
“It doesn’t need to be a fight. We don’t need to do the bashing,” he said. “If we had people in Congress that would just not be so belligerent and not be so narrow minded … we’d have a lot more success.”
Data outlined in the UC Irvine poll indicated that appealing to Asian and Latino voters, particularly those without a strong party preference, could play a crucial role in a candidate’s success in the general election. The poll found that Asian and Latino residents make up the majority of independent voters and those who are loosely attached to a political party.
Republicans in Orange County for years have focused on recruiting Asian American candidates for local races and have put significant resources into attracting Asian American and Pacific Islander voters to win seats. Over the summer, the Republican Party opened a new community center in Little Saigon, home to one of the largest Vietnamese communities outside Vietnam, to aid in recruitment and training volunteers for voter outreach.
But they haven’t had the same success with Latinos. Randall Avila, the executive director of the Republican Party of Orange County, said this will be the focus heading into November.
“We are going to try to kind of replicate what we have been successful with Asian Americans and extend that into the Latino community,” he said.
California State Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who is running in the hotly contested 47th Congressional District currently represented by Democrat Rep. Katie Porter, said the Democratic Party “as an institution is kind of behind the eight ball” in connecting with Asian American voters.
“I think a lot of times Asian American and Latino groups feel like they’re left out in the cold out here,” Min said.
Politics
Reporter’s Notebook: Trump’s SAVE Act ultimatum runs into Senate reality
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Passage of the SAVE America Act is of paramount importance to President Donald Trump and many congressional Republicans.
In his State of the Union speech, the president implored lawmakers “to approve the SAVE America Act to stop illegal aliens and other unpermitted persons from voting in our sacred American elections.”
The House approved the plan to require proof of citizenship to vote last month, 218-213. There’s now a different version of the legislation that’s in play. And, as is often the case, the hurdle is the Senate. Specifically, the Senate filibuster.
Attendees listen as Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, speaks at an “Only Citizens Vote” bus tour rally advocating passage of the SAVE Act at Upper Senate Park outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 10, 2025. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
So some Republicans are trying to save the SAVE America Act.
It’s important to note that Trump never called for the Senate to alter the filibuster in his State of the Union address. But in a post last week on Truth Social, Trump declared, “The Republicans MUST DO, with PASSION, and at the expense of everything else, THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.”
Again, the president didn’t wade into questions about overcoming a filibuster. But “MUST DO” and “at the expense of everything else” is a clear directive from the commander in chief.
That’s why there’s a big push by House Republicans and some GOP senators to alter the filibuster — or handle the Senate filibuster differently.
It’s rare for members of one body of Congress to tell the other how to execute their rules and procedures. But the strongest conservative advocates of the SAVE America Act are now condemning Senate Republicans if they don’t do something drastic to change the filibuster to pass the measure.
Some Senate Republicans are pushing for changes, or at the very least, advocating that Senate Republicans insist that Democrats conduct what they refer to as a “talking filibuster” and not hold up the legislation from the sidelines. It takes 60 votes to terminate a filibuster. The Senate does that by “invoking cloture.” The Senate first used the cloture provision to halt a filibuster on March 8, 1917. Prior to that vote, the only method to end a filibuster was exhaustion — meaning that senators finally just run out of gas, quit debating and finally voted.
So let’s explore what a filibuster is and isn’t and dive into what Republicans are talking about when they’re talking about a talking filibuster.
The Senate’s leading feature is unlimited debate. But, ironically, the “debate” which holds up most bills is not debate. It’s simply a group of 60 lawmakers signaling offstage to their leaders that they’ll stymie things. No one has to go to the floor to do anything. Opponents of a bill will require the majority tee up a cloture vote — even if legislation has 60 yeas. Each cloture vote takes three to four days to process. So that inherently slows down the process — and is a de facto filibuster.
But what about talking filibusters? Yes, senators sometimes take the floor and talk for a really long time, hence, the “unlimited debate” provision in the Senate. Senators can generally speak as long as they want, unless there’s a time agreement green-lighted by all 100 members.
That’s why a “filibuster” is hard to define. You won’t find the word “filibuster” in the Senate’s rules. And since senators can just talk as long as they want, they might argue that suggesting they are “filibustering” is pejorative. They’re just exercising their Senate rights to speak on the floor.
A true filibuster is a delay. For instance, the record-breaking 25-hour and 8-minute speech last year by Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., against the Trump administration was technically not a filibuster. Booker began his oratory on the evening of March 31, ending on the night of April 1. Once Booker concluded, the Senate voted to confirm Matt Whittaker as NATO ambassador. The Senate was supposed to vote on the Whitaker nomination on April 1 anyway. So all Booker’s speech did was delay that confirmation vote by a few hours. But not much.
In October 2013, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, held the floor for more than 21 hours. It was part of Cruz’s quest to defund Obamacare. But despite Cruz’s verbosity (and a recitation of Green Eggs and Ham by Dr. Suess), the Senate was already locked in to take a procedural vote around 1 p.m. the next day. Preparations for that vote automatically ended Cruz’s speech. Thus, it truly wasn’t a filibuster either.
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Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, during an oversight hearing in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 17, 2025. (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
So, this brings us to the talking filibuster which actually gums up the Senate gearboxes. A talking filibuster is what most Americans think of when they hear the term “filibuster.” That’s thanks to the iconic scenes with Jimmy Stewart in the Frank Capra classic, “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.”
Most senators filibuster by forcing the Senate to take two cloture votes — spread out over days — to handle even the simplest of matters. That elongates the process by close to a week. But if advocates of a given bill have the votes to break the filibuster via cloture, the gig is up.
However, what happens if a senator — or a group of senators delay things with long speeches? That can only last for so long. And it could potentially truncate the Senate’s need to take any cloture vote, needing 60 yeas.
Republicans who advocate passage of the SAVE America Act believe they can get around cloture — and thus the need for 60 votes — by making opponents of the legislation talk. And talk. And talk.
And once they’re done talking, the Senate can vote — up or down — on the SAVE Act. Passage requires a simple majority. The Senate never even needs to tangle with 60.
Senate Rule XIX (19) states that “no senator shall speak more than twice upon any one question in debate on the same legislative day.”
Easy enough, right? Two speeches per day. You speak twice on Monday, then you have to wait until Tuesday? Democrats would eventually run out of juice after all 47 senators who caucus with Democrats have their say — twice.
But it’s not that simple. Note the part about two speeches per “question.”
Well, here’s a question. What constitutes a “question” in Senate parlance? A “question” could be the bill itself. It could be an amendment. It could be a motion. And just for the record, the Senate usually cycles through a “first-degree” amendment and then a “second-degree” amendment — to say nothing of the bill itself. So, if you’re scoring at home, that could be six (!) speeches per senator, per day, on any given “question.”
Questions?
But wait. There’s more.
Note that Rule XIX refers to a “legislative day.” A legislative day is not the same as a calendar day. One basic difference is if the Senate “adjourns” each night versus “recessing.” If the Senate “adjourns” its Monday session on calendar day Monday, then a new legislative day begins on Tuesday. However, the legislative day of “Monday” carries over to Tuesday if the Senate “recesses.”
It may be up to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., whether the Senate “adjourns” or “recesses.” The creation of a new legislative day inhibits the GOP talking filibuster effort.
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., center, arrives for a news conference after a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in Washington. (Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo)
Democrats would obviously push for the Senate to adjourn each day. But watch to see if talking filibuster proponents object to Thune’s daily adjournment requests. If the Senate votes to stay in session, that forces the legislative day of Monday to bleed over to Tuesday.
Pro tip: Keep an eye on the adjournment vs. recess scenario. If a talking filibuster supporter tries to prevent the Senate from adjourning, that may signal whether the GOP has a shot at eventually passing the SAVE Act. If that test vote fails and the Senate adjourns for the day, the SAVE Act is likely dead in the water.
We haven’t even talked about a custom practiced by most Senate majority leaders to lock down the contours of a bill when they file cloture to end debate.
It’s typical for the presiding officer to recognize the Senate majority leader first on the floor for debate. So Thune and his predecessors often “fill” what’s called the “amendment tree.” The amendment tree dictates how many amendments are in play at any one time. Think of the underlying bill as a “trunk.” A “branch” is for the first amendment. A “sprig” from that branch is the second amendment. Majority leaders often load up the amendment tree with “fillers” that don’t change the subject of the bill. He then files cloture to break the filibuster.
That tactic curbs the universe of amendments. It blocks the other side from engineering controversial amendments to alter the bill. But if Thune doesn’t file cloture to end debate, then the Senate must consider amendment after amendment, repeatedly filling the tree and voting on those amendments. This would unfold during a talking filibuster, not when Thune is controlling the process by filing cloture and “filling the tree.”
This is why Thune is skeptical of a talking filibuster to pass the SAVE Act.
“This process is more complicated and risky than people are assuming at the moment,” said Thune.
In fact, the biggest “benefit” to filing cloture may not even be overcoming a filibuster, but blocking amendments via management of the tree. Republicans are bracing for amendments Democrats may offer.
“If you don’t think Democrats have a laundry list of amendments, talking about who won the 2020 election, talking about the Epstein files — if you don’t think they have a quiver full of these amendments that they’re ready to get Republican votes on the record, then I’ve got a bridge to sell you,” said George Washington University political science professor Casey Burgat.
Plus, forcing a talking filibuster for days precludes the Senate from passing a DHS funding bill. That’s to say nothing of confirming Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., as Homeland Security secretary. His confirmation hearing likely comes next Wednesday, but a protracted Senate debate would block a confirmation vote from the floor.
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Sen. Markwayne Mullin, Republican from Oklahoma, addresses reporters at the U.S. Capitol after being tapped as President Donald Trump’s new nominee to lead DHS, March 5, 2026. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Thune all but killed the talking filibuster maneuver on Tuesday — despite the president’s ultimatum.
“Do you run a risk of being on the wrong side of President Trump and your resistance to do this talking filibuster, tying the Senate in knots for weeks?” asked yours truly.
“We don’t have the votes either to proceed, get on a talking filibuster, nor to sustain one if we got on it,” replied Thune. “I understand the president’s got a passion to see this issue addressed.”
I followed up.
“Does he understand that, though?”
“Well, we’ve conveyed that to him,” answered Thune. “It’s about the math. And, for better or worse, I’m the one who has to be a clear-eyed realist about what we can achieve here.”
And there just doesn’t appear to be any parliamentary way to get there with the talking filibuster.
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Like many things in Congress, it all boils down to one thing.
As Thune said, “it’s about the math.”
Politics
400 million barrels of oil to be released from strategic reserves as Iran targets commercial ships
Attacks on multiple commercial ships in the waters around Iran on Wednesday increased global energy concerns, pushed nations to unleash strategic oil reserves and sparked fresh critiques of the Trump administration’s readiness for a war it started.
As Trump administration and U.S. military officials continued to claim increasing success and advantage in the conflict, leaders around the world scrambled to respond to the latest attacks and the International Energy Agency’s call for the largest ever release of strategic oil reserves by its members to help stem energy price spikes.
In an address Wednesday morning, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had “all but stopped” amid the conflict, driving massive global competition for oil and gas in wealthier countries and fuel rationing in poorer nations.
He said the IEA’s 32 member nations have brought a “sense of urgency and solidarity” to recent discussions on the matter, and had unanimously agreed to “launch the largest ever release of emergency oil stocks in our agency’s history,” making 400 million barrels of oil available.
However, he said the most needed change is the “resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”
A vendor pumps petrol from Iranian fuel oil tankers for resale near the Bashmakh border crossing between Iraq and Iran.
(Ozan Kose / AFP/Getty Images)
Several countries, including Germany, Austria and Japan, had already confirmed their plans to release reserves.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on any U.S. plans to release its strategic reserves, or how much would be released. The U.S. is an IEA member.
However, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum backed the idea of releasing oil reserves in a Fox News interview.
“Certainly these are the kinds of moments that these reserves are used for, because what we have here is not a shortage of energy in the world; we’ve got a transit problem, which is temporary,” Burgum said. “When you have a temporary transit problem that we’re resolving militarily and diplomatically — which we can resolve and will resolve — this is the perfect time to think about releasing some of those, to take some pressure off of the global price.”
Burgum said that while Iran is “holding the entire world hostage economically by threatening to close the strait,” President Trump has made the consequences of such actions “very clear,” and “there’s a lot of options between ourselves and our allies in the region, including our Arab friends in the region, to make sure that those straits keep open and that energy keeps flowing for the global economy.”
While some tankers believed linked to Iran were still getting through the Strait of Hormuz, which under normal circumstances carries 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, Iranian officials threatened attacks on other vessels — saying they would not allow “even a single liter of oil” tied to the U.S., Israel or their allies through the channel, which connects to the Persian Gulf.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. and its powerful Navy would support commercial vessels and ensure the strait remains open to oil shipments, but that has not been the case.
Tankers wait off the Mediterranean coast of southern France on Wednesday.
(Thibaud Moritz / AFP/Getty Images)
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center, run by the British military, has reported at least three ships struck in the region Wednesday — including ships off the United Arab Emirates and a cargo ship that was struck by a projectile in the strait just north of Oman, setting it ablaze.
The Trump administration and the U.S. military, meanwhile, have been pushing out messaging about wiping out Iran’s ability to plant mines in the strait — posting dramatic videos of major strikes on tiny boats on small docks.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the leader of U.S. Central Command, said in a video posted to X on Wednesday morning that “in short, U.S. forces continue delivering devastating combat power against the Iranian regime.”
“I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating: U.S. combat power is building, Iranian combat power is declining,” he said.
The U.S. has struck more than 60 Iranian ships, and just “took out the last of four Soleimani-class warships,” he said. “That’s an entire class of Iranian ships now out of the fight.”
Cooper said Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks have “dropped drastically” since the start of the war, though “it’s worth pointing out that Iranian forces continue to target innocent civilians in gulf countries, while hiding behind their own people as they launch attacks from highly populated cities in Iran.”
He also addressed the attacks on commercial shipping in the region directly, saying that “for years, the Iranian regime has threatened commercial shipping and U.S. forces in international waters,” and that the U.S. military’s “mission is to end their ability to project power and harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Other U.S. leaders called the U.S. war plan — and specifically its approach to protecting the Strait of Hormuz — into question.
In a series of posts to X late Tuesday, which he said followed a two-hour classified briefing on the war, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) slammed the administration’s plans as “incoherent and incomplete.”
Murphy wrote that the administration’s goals for the war seemed to be focused primarily on “destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories,” and without a clear plan for what to do when Iran — still led by “a hardline regime” — begins rebuilding that infrastructure, other than to continue bombing them. “Which is, of course, endless war,” he wrote.
Murphy also specifically criticized the administration’s plan for the Strait of Hormuz — which he said simply doesn’t exist.
“And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN,” he wrote. “I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.”
Politics
EXCLUSIVE: ICE says El Paso detention facility will stay open under new contractor after $1.2B deal scrapped
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EXCLUSIVE: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said Camp East Montana in El Paso, Texas will remain open and is undergoing an operational upgrade, Fox News Digital has learned.
“Camp East Montana is NOT closing, quite the opposite,” an ICE spokesperson exclusively told Fox News Digital Tuesday.
“Rather, ICE has contracted with a new provider following Secretary Noem’s termination of the old contract inherited from the Department of War. ICE is always looking at ways to improve our detention facilities to ensure we are providing the best care to illegal aliens in our custody.”
Camp East Montana is photographed Friday, March 6, 2026, in El Paso, Texas. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The spokesperson said the new contract will allow the facility to maintain what the agency described as the “highest detention standards” while expanding oversight.
According to ICE, the new contractor will also provide increased on-site medical care, additional staffing and a “PRECISE quality assurance surveillance plan.”
The agency said the updated agreement also strengthens ICE’s direct oversight of operations at the El Paso-area facility.
“Far from closing, Camp East Montana is upgrading,” the spokesperson said.
El Paso immigration facility faces scrutiny but ICE says Camp East Montana is upgrading, not closing, after the $1.2 billion contract termination. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The news that the facility will remain open comes after The Washington Post reported that the facility could face closure amid scrutiny over operations.
A document was distributed to ICE staff, the Post reports, indicated that the agency was drafting a letter to terminate the facility’s $1.2 billion contract at an unspecified date.
ICE officials, however, characterized the contract termination as a deliberate effort by Noem to raise standards and improve services.
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Camp East Montana is photographed Friday, March 6, 2026, in El Paso, Texas, as a bus enters the detention center. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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The facility, located at Fort Bliss in Texas, has been used to house thousands of detainees as part of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.
ICE did not immediately provide details on the identity of the new contractor or the timeline for full implementation.
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