- Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
- Treaty expires on February 5
- Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
- China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
World
World leaders gather in Switzerland for Ukraine peace summit, excluding Russia
- Switzerland is hosting world leaders this weekend to discuss peace in Ukraine without Russia’s participation.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government excluded Russia from the talks, and Switzerland did not invite them.
- The conference is based on Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan from late 2022, aiming to rally international support.
Switzerland will host scores of world leaders this weekend to try to map out first steps toward peace in Ukraine even though Russia, which launched the ongoing war, won’t take part.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government didn’t want Russia involved, and the Swiss — aware of Moscow’s reservations about the talks — didn’t invite Russia. The Swiss insist Russia must be involved at some point, and hope it will join the process one day. Ukrainians, too, are considering that possibility.
The conference, underpinned by elements of a 10-point peace formula presented by Zelenskyy in late 2022, is unlikely to produce major results and is seen as a largely symbolic effort on the part of Kyiv to rally the international community and project strength against its better armed and numbered adversary.
ZELENSKYY ACCUSES CHINA AND RUSSIA OF UNDERMINING PEACE SUMMIT DURING VISIT TO MANILA
But the question looming over the summit will be how the two countries can move back from the brink and eventually silence the guns in a war that has cost hundreds of billions of dollars and caused hundreds and thousands of deaths and injuries, without Moscow attending.
The logo of the peace summit is pictured in Buergenstock, Switzerland, on June 13, 2024. Switzerland will host scores of world leaders this weekend to try to map out first steps toward peace in Ukraine even though Russia, which launched the ongoing war, won’t take part. (Urs Flueeler/Keystone via AP)
The conflict has also led to international sanctions against nuclear-armed Russia and has raised tensions between NATO and Moscow. The summit comes as Russian forces have been making modest territorial gains in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, extending the grip they already hold on about a quarter of the country.
Here’s a look at what to expect from the weekend gathering at the Burgenstock Resort on a cliff overlooking Lake Lucerne.
Who’s going?
Among the stakes will be simple optics: How many countries the Swiss and Ukrainians can draw in. The bigger the turnout, the bigger the international push — and pressure — for peace will be, the thinking goes.
Swiss officials sent out some 160 invitations, and say about 90 delegations, including a handful of international organizations like the United Nations, will attend. Roughly half will be from Europe. Zelenskyy led a diplomatic push in Asia and beyond to rally participation.
Several dozen attendees will be heads of state or government, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
United States Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with Zelenskyy on Saturday on the sidelines of the summit, according to a senior Biden administration official. Harris, who is making a quick trip to Lucerne to take part in the opening day, is also expected to deliver an address before the gathering.
The official, who briefed a small group of reporters on the vice president’s plans on the condition of anonymity, said Harris intended to focus her engagements on “defending and strengthening the international rules-based order.”
WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE UPCOMING SWISS SUMMIT ON UKRAINE’S PEACE PLAN
Who are the major no-shows?
U.S. President Joe Biden, who was wrapping up a visit to Italy on Friday for a Group of Seven summit, opted to dispatch Harris and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The president, meanwhile, was headed to Los Angeles for a glitzy campaign fundraiser with actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts, as well as former President Barack Obama.
Biden and Zelenskyy signed a 10-year security agreement Thursday at the G7 summit.
Russia’s key ally China will not attend.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said it believes any such international peace conference should involve both Russia and Ukraine, although Beijing supports efforts to bring the conflict to an end and is monitoring the developments in Switzerland.
The final list of attendees isn’t expected until late Friday, and question marks remain about how key developing countries like India, Brazil and Turkey might take part, if at all.
But so far, under half of the 193 United Nations member countries are planning to attend, testifying to a wait-and-see attitude in many world capitals.
“Russia does not have a lot of allies in this particular situation,” said Keith Krause, a professor of international security studies at the Graduate Institute in Geneva. “It has a number of states that are susceptible to being pressured, and a few that actually wish to stand aside, from what they see as a northern, U.S.-Russia, NATO-Russia confrontation.”
“They essentially don’t have — what they would consider — a dog in the fight,” he added.
What can be expected?
Naysayers have harrumphed that the peace summit will be short on substantial achievements toward peace without Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government doesn’t believe Switzerland, which has lined up behind European Union sanctions on Moscow over the war, is neutral.
Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s U.N. ambassador, said peace talks without Russia’s participation are “a road to nowhere.”
“In practice, the main goal is to present an ultimatum to the Russian Federation in the form of the so-called ‘peace plan’” from Zelenskyy, the ambassador was quoted as saying by Russian state news agency RIA-Novosti.
Participants are expected to unite around an outcome document or a joint plan, and Ukraine will have a lot of input into what it says. But ironing out language that delegations can agree upon is still a work in progress, and could explain why some countries aren’t yet saying whether they will attend.
Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said Ukrainian officials wanted countries that respect Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity to be invited. He said the basis of the talks should be a 10-point peace formula that Zelenskyy has presented, and he held out the possibility that Russia could be invited to a second such summit.
Speaking to reporters late Tuesday, Yermak said Ukraine and the other participants would be preparing a “joint plan” to unite around, “and we’re looking for the possibility in the second summit to invite representative of Russia, and together present this joint plan.”
Asked what would be the measure of a successful summit in Burgenstock, he replied: “We think it’s already a success because it’s a big number of countries (attending).”
SWITZERLAND RECKONS WITH HISTORIC NEUTRALITY AS IT PREPARES TO HOST UKRAINE PEACE SUMMIT
What is the Ukrainian 10-point peace formula?
Ukraine’s peace plan launched by Zelenskyy outlines 10 proposals that encapsulates the president’s step-by-step vision to end the war against Russia’s invasion, now in its third year.
The plan includes ambitious calls, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukrainian territory, the cessation of hostilities and restoring Ukraine’s state borders with Russia, including Crimea. That is an unlikely outcome at this stage in this war, as Ukraine is unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Moscow’s army has the upper hand in firepower and number of troops, while Kyiv’s momentum has been stalled by delays in Western military supplies.
That is likely why the most contentious elements of the plan are not being discussed.
Only three themes will be on the table at the summit: nuclear safety, including at the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant; humanitarian aid; and food security, not just in Ukraine but globally — notably the spillover effects of the war on Ukrainian agricultural production and exports.
Western officials in Kyiv said these themes cut across international interests and are easy for Kyiv to rally the international community around. But they do not encompass the tougher issues that can only be resolved with Moscow as a negotiating partner.
Russia’s hesitancy about the conference stems in part from its unwillingness to show any sign of acceptance of the Ukrainian peace formula, which it rejects, or any red lines set by Kyiv.
Putin has espoused a deal to be premised on a draft peace agreement negotiated in the early days of the war that included provisions for Ukraine’s neutral status and put limits on its armed forces while delaying talks on the status of Russian-occupied areas.
What’s the way forward?
Krause, of the Graduate Institute, said Ukraine needs to emerge from the conference with momentum — a reaffirmation of commitment from its top allies and partners around its bottom lines on issues like territorial integrity and future relationships, even if membership may be far off, in NATO or the European Union one day.
He said Ukraine will want to see a reaffirmation that it’s up to Kyiv to lay out the terms on which the war will end.
“I don’t think anybody is particularly deluded that this is going to give birth to a new peace plan, or even to some kind of agreement that stops the hostilities on the battlefield,” Krause said. “But as past wars have shown, including as far back as World War II, discussions about the contours of the peace begin long before the fighting stops on the battlefield.”
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World
‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”
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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.
“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.
The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.
New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.
Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.
Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.
“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”
“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.
A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.
New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.
Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
World
Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum
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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.
As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.
“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.
“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.
MADURO ARREST SENDS ‘CLEAR MESSAGE’ TO DRUG CARTELS, ALLIES AND US RIVALS, RETIRED ADMIRAL SAYS
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)
Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”
“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.
“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”
Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.
“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.
WAS TRUMP’S MADURO OPERATION ILLEGAL? WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW HAS TO SAY
Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.
“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.
Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.
Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.
The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.
FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY
Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)
Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”
Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.
Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.
“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.
“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”
Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.
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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.
As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.
World
Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate
US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.
United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.
On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.
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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”
The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.
Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.
The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.
Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.
The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.
“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.
Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.
The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.
Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.
“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.
“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”
Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.
The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.
On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.
Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.
But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.
“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”
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