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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.

As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.

“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.

“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.

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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)

Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.

“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”

“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.

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“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”

Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.

“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.

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Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)

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As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.

“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.

Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.

Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.

The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.

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FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY

Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)

Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”

Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.

Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.

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“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.

“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”

Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.

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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.

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As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.

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Which oil and gas facilities in the Gulf have been attacked?

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Which oil and gas facilities in the Gulf have been attacked?

Global energy markets remain in a state of high alert after several Gulf states suspended oil and gas production following escalating tensions in the region.

Since Saturday’s attacks by the United States and Israel, Tehran has targeted various sites in Israel and across several Gulf countries.

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Initially, these Iranian attacks focused primarily on US military assets, but Gulf states have reported that Iran has since broadened its scope to target civilian infrastructure, including hotels, airports and energy facilities. Iranian officials have publicly denied targeting Gulf energy facilities, however.

The Middle East remains the world’s dominant source of hydrocarbon reserves and a major driver of crude oil and natural gas output.

How much oil and gas does the Middle East have?

Nearly half of the world’s oil reserves and exports come from the Middle East, which contains five of the seven largest oil reserves in the world.

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Once refined, crude oil is used to make various products, including petrol, diesel, jet fuel and a wide range of household items such as cleaning products, plastics and even lotions.

After Venezuela, which has 303 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia holds the world’s second-largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at 267 billion barrels.

The Middle East’s largest oil reserves:

  • Saudi Arabia: 267 billion barrels
  • Iran: 209 billion barrels
  • Iraq: 145 billion barrels
  • UAE: 113 billion barrels
  • Kuwait: 102 billion barrels

Saudi Arabia is also the world’s top oil exporter with an estimated $187bn of crude in 2024, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).

The Middle East’s top oil exporters:

  • Saudi Arabia: $187bn
  • UAE: $114bn
  • Iraq: $98bn
  • Iran: $47bn – largely sold at a discount due to US sanctions
  • Kuwait: 29bn

Other Middle Eastern countries with sizeable oil exports include: Oman ($28.9bn), Kuwait ($28.8bn) and Qatar ($21bn).

(Al Jazeera)

In addition to crude oil, the Middle East is a global powerhouse for natural gas, accounting for nearly 18 percent of global production and approximately 40 percent of the world’s proven reserves.

Natural gas is primarily used for electricity generation, industrial heating, and in chemicals and fertilisers.

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The heart of Middle Eastern gas is a single, massive underwater reservoir called the South Pars/North Dome field. It is the largest gasfield in the world, and it is shared directly between Qatar and Iran.

Gas is transported either through pipelines or by tankers. When using pipelines, the gas is pressurised and moved through steel networks. When pipelines are not feasible, such as across oceans, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is used.

To create LNG, the gas is cooled to approximately -162C (-260F), shrinking its volume and allowing it to be safely loaded onto specialised tanker ships for global transport.

To transport oil and gas, tankers from various Gulf states must navigate the narrow waterway known as the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas passes through this strait, primarily heading to major markets in Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea and India, as well as to Europe.

INTERACTIVE - Strait of Hormuz - FEB24, 2026-1772104775
(Al Jazeera)

Which energy facilities have been attacked?

Here are the facilities which have recorded damage as of Wednesday:

Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura oil refinery

On Monday, one of the world’s largest oil refining complexes, the Ras Tanura oil refinery owned by Saudi Aramco, was forced to halt operations after debris from intercepted Iranian drones caused a small fire.

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This handout satellite image courtesy of Vantor taken and released on March 2, 2026, shows damage at the Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery.
This handout satellite image, courtesy of Vantor, released on March 2, 2026, shows damage at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery [AFP]

Saudi Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and revenue of $480bn. Headquartered in Dhahran, in eastern Saudi Arabia, Aramco controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd).

On Wednesday, Saudi defence officials reported a second drone attempt on the facility but this was successfully intercepted with no damage or disruption to operations reported.

Qatar – Ras Laffan Industrial City LNG facilities

On Monday, Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported that Iranian drones had targeted an energy facility in Ras Laffan belonging to QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG producer.

While no casualties were reported, QatarEnergy suspended the production of LNG and other products at the impacted sites.

RAS LAFFAN INDUSTRIAL CITY, QATAR - MARCH 3: A picture of Qatar Energy's operating facilities on March 3, 2026 in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar. Qatar Energy announced a complete halt to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities on March 2, 2026, after Iranian attacks targeted energy facilities. (Photo by Getty Images)
QatarEnergy’s operating facilities on March 3, 2026, in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar [Getty Images]

QatarEnergy’s 81 million metric tonnes of LNG exports are mostly bound for Asian markets, including China, Japan, India, South Korea, Pakistan and other countries in the region. The halt in production hiked global gas prices to a three-year high this week.

Qatar – Mesaieed Industrial City

Qatar’s Defence Ministry said the country was attacked by a second drone launched from Iran on Monday, targeting a water tank belonging to a power plant in Mesaieed, without reporting any casualties.

On Tuesday, QatarEnergy also stopped production of some downstream products like urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium and others.

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UAE – Fujairah and Mussafah oil terminals

On Monday, a fire broke out at Mussafah Fuel Terminal in southwest Abu Dhabi after it was struck by a drone.

On Tuesday, falling debris from a drone interception caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Terminal along the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates. No injuries were reported.

Large fire and plume of smoke is visible after, according to the authorities, debris of an Iranian intercepted drone hit the Fujairah oil facility, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
A large fire and plume of smoke are visible after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone hit the Fujairah oil facility, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, according to authorities [Altaf Qadri/AP Photos]

Oman – ports of Duqm and Salalah

On Tuesday, multiple Iranian drones struck fuel tanks and a tanker at the port of Duqm, with at least one direct hit on a fuel storage tank, causing an explosion.

On the same day, a drone strike was recorded at the Port of Salalah, which handles fuel and industrial minerals.

Athe Nova – oil tanker

On Monday, the Athe Nova, a Honduran-flagged tanker positioned off the coast of Khor Fakkan, UAE, was struck by Iranian drones as it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, setting it ablaze. Despite the fire, the vessel managed to exit the chokepoint into the Gulf of Oman, and no casualties were reported.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the strike, identifying the Athe Nova as an “ally of the United States”.

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On the same day as the attack, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, warning that any ship attempting to pass would be “set ablaze”.

Since then, several other tankers have been hit.

INTERACTIVE_IRAN_GCC_OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-ATHE_NOVA_MARCH4_2026
(Al Jazeera)

Other regional energy disruptions

Although not directly targeted, the following energy sites suspended operations in response to Iranian retaliatory attacks:

Israeli offshore gasfields – Major gas production fields such as Leviathan and Tamar were shut down as a precaution following regional drone and missile launches linked to Iran.

Oil fields in semiautonomous Iraqi Kurdistan – Producers including DNO, Gulf Keystone and Dana Gas halted output as a safety measure amid the escalation.

Rumaila oilfield – Operations at Iraq’s largest oilfield – operated by BP – in southern Iraq were halted on Tuesday as a security precaution due to its proximity to the escalation zone.

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Trump's national security team comes to convince Congress to back Iran war

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Trump's national security team comes to convince Congress to back Iran war
President Donald Trump’s top national security advisers were to spend much of the day on Tuesday making the case to members of Congress ​for the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, as Democrats and some of his fellow Republicans clamored for more information.
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Iran’s senior clerics ‘exposed’ after building strike in Qom, succession choice looms

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Iran’s senior clerics ‘exposed’ after building strike in Qom, succession choice looms

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Senior Iranian clerics would have been left “exposed” after an Israeli airstrike hit a meeting place where they were supposed to be convening Tuesday — days after a strike leveled the Tehran compound of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a defense analyst has claimed.

The clerics, members of the Assembly of Experts, had reportedly planned to meet at the location in Qom to deliberate succession plans for Khamenei, who was killed in the strikes, according to The Times of Israel.

“This second strike would be another embarrassment to what has been left of the regime,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital.

“It indicates intelligence dominance and superiority because any movement is detected, meaning they would feel exposed,” Michael added.

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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike Saturday. (Getty Images)

“As of now, the leadership would feel insecure and hunted, with all of their plans collapsing one after another.”

“They would feel totally isolated and understand that the biggest risk might come from home — from a potential uprising next,” he added.

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin confirmed that the Israeli Air Force struck the building where senior clerics had planned to assemble, The Times of Israel reported.

KHAMENEI’S DEATH OPENS UNCERTAIN CHAPTER FOR IRAN’S ENTRENCHED THEOCRACY

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A general view of Tehran with smoke visible in the distance after explosions were reported in the city, Monday, in Iran. (Contributor/Getty Images)

It remains unclear how many of the 88 members were present at the time of the strike, according to an Israeli defense source cited by the outlet. The second strike on Iran’s leadership comes amid a broader military campaign.

As previously reported by Fox News Digital, U.S. forces have struck more than 1,700 targets across Iran in the first 72 hours of Operation Epic Fury, according to a U.S. Central Command fact sheet.

The campaign is aimed at dismantling Iran’s security apparatus and neutralizing what officials describe as imminent threats.

According to U.S. Central Command, targets have included command-and-control centers, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Joint Headquarters, the IRGC Aerospace Forces headquarters, integrated air defense systems and ballistic missile sites.

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FIREBRAND ANTI-AMERICAN CLERIC ALIREZA ARAFI SEEN AS CONTENDER TO REPLACE IRAN’S KHAMENEI

The USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk land attack missile in support of Operation Epic Fury, Sunday, while at sea. (U.S. Navy/via Getty Images)

“We need strategic patience and determination, and in several weeks most of the job will be accomplished,” Michael added. “Even if the regime does not collapse, Iran will not be like we used to know.

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“I assume that the U.S. and Israel will establish a very robust monitoring mechanism that will enable them to react whenever the regime tries to reconstitute its military capacities again.”

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