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Ukraine’s 2023 budget has a $38 billion gap. Who will help cover it?

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Ukraine’s 2023 budget has a $38 billion gap. Who will help cover it?

Russia’s warfare has ravaged Ukraine’s public coffers, leaving the nation with an ever-widening deficit that requires pressing international help to maintain the economic system afloat.

The widespread havoc wreaked by Russian forces has triggered insolvency, mind drain, rising unemployment, hovering inflation and a drastic fall in exports, wiping away billions in income and tax revenue.

An preliminary forecast by the World Financial institution that predicted a 35% contraction of Ukraine’s GDP has worsened because of the Kremlin’s continued assaults in opposition to key infrastructure.

The nation is now scrambling to seek out sources of revenues to maintain its 2023 finances, which incorporates a record-breaking deficit of $38 billion (€36.9 billion).

The funding is meant to make sure probably the most primary providers, corresponding to healthcare and schooling, stay obtainable to residents because the warfare rages on. The acquisition of vitality provides and the restore of broken energy programs are set to inflate the bills.

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“For Ukraine, that is an unsustainable quantity: $38 billion {dollars} of deficit. The salaries of lecturers, docs, social advantages, pensions, are important funds,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned final month, in a digital tackle to a global convention hosted in Berlin.

However within the midst of a world recession, what nation is prepared to foot such hefty invoice?

Inevitably, all eyes have turned to Western allies, those that have repeatedly pledged to assist Ukraine for “so long as it takes.” In different phrases, the European Union and america.

Brussels has already introduced a draft plan to disburse as much as €18 billion in monetary support over the course of 2023, which can quantity to €1.5 billion per thirty days.

The package deal, which continues to be pending approval, will probably be launched as long-term loans with beneficial circumstances: Ukraine won’t be requested to re-paid the cash till 2033 and rates of interest will lined by member states.

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Washington is reportedly planning to offer an analogous month-to-month quantity, however within the type of grants, which don’t must be repaid and assist alleviate Kyiv’s monetary burden.

Collectively, the EU and the US may fill a good portion of Ukraine’s huge budgetary gap, nevertheless it won’t be sufficient to shut it fully.

Different Western nations, along with monetary establishments just like the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) and the World Financial institution, are anticipated to contribute to the hassle. The IMF had beforehand estimated Ukraine’s monetary must be price between $3 and $4 billion per thirty days.

“All of us must be alive to the likelihood that social and infrastructure necessities may push financing wants past this vary, relying on the evolution of the warfare,” IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned.

Western support, nevertheless, depends on political consensus, which the upcoming recession is poised to pressure.

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Disagreements between member states partially derailed the €9 billion the EU promised to ship to Kyiv throughout 2022, whereas Hungary has expressed its opposition to subsequent 12 months’s €18-billion package deal.

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Holocaust survivors visit Auschwitz for annual March of the Living, reflect on Oct. 7 attacks

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Holocaust survivors visit Auschwitz for annual March of the Living, reflect on Oct. 7 attacks

Several thousand Jews, including Holocaust survivors personally affected by the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, walked through the former Auschwitz Nazi German death camp on Monday for the annual March of the Living ceremony in Poland.

Walking along the 1.8 mile path towards the crematoria of Birkenau, they paid tribute to the millions of Jews murdered by the Nazis during World War Two.

This year’s ceremony was overshadowed by the events last year when 1,200 people were killed in a Hamas-led rampage through Israeli towns and 253 hostages were taken, according to Israeli tallies.

HOLOCAUST SURVIVORS CONFRONT RISING DENIAL, ANTISEMITISM IN NEW DIGITAL CAMPAIGN

Daniel Louz, a 90-year-old whose hometown Kibbutz Beeri lost a tenth of its residents to the Palestinian attackers, came to the Auschwitz camp on Monday for the first time since his mother’s family was killed there in 1942.

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A wooden guard tower stands at the site of former Nazi German concentration and extermination camp Auschwitz II-Birkenau during ceremonies marking the 77th anniversary of the liberation of the camp and International Holocaust Victims Remembrance Day, in Brzezinka near Oswiecim, Poland, on January 27, 2022.  (Jakub Porzycki/Agencja Wyborcza.pl via Reuters/File Photo)

“I am convinced that on October 7 in Beeri the good souls (of the Holocaust dead) protected me and did not let the Hamas criminals shoot at our home,” Louz told Reuters. “So that I might be able to tell the story. I am really thankful to you all.”

More than 1.1 million people, mostly Jews, perished in gas chambers or from starvation, cold and disease at Auschwitz, which Germans set up in occupied Poland during World War Two.

More than three million of Poland’s 3.2 million Jews were murdered by the Nazis, accounting for about half of the Jews killed in the Holocaust.

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“Prior to October 7 it is my belief … that the worst event in human history happened on these grounds. That this place, the very word Auschwitz, speaks volumes in one word about fear, death, destruction, annihilation,” Phyllis Greenberg Heideman, President of the International March of the Living, said during Monday’s event.

“And then came October 7, and perhaps we have to come as a people to the realization that perhaps in some ways the Shoah (Holocaust) isn’t over for us. It’s not a competition, certainly not a comparison, it’s a continuum.”

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Tech compliance reports, Newsletter

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Tech compliance reports, Newsletter

This week’s key events presented by senior tech and industry reporter Cynthia Kroet

Key diary dates

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Monday 6- Wednesday 8 May: High-Level Conference on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) organised by the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU.

Monday 6 May: Deadline for online platforms regulated under the Digital Services Act to submit transparency reports.

Tuesday 7 May: NGO Seas at Risk to publish report on under-sea mining. 

In spotlight

EU platform rules return to the spotlight this week, since today (6 May) is the deadline for the largest online platforms – those with more than 45 million users per month – to hand in their transparency reports under the Digital Services Act (DSA).

It’s the second batch of reports after the stringent rules started applying to the likes of Facebook, Amazon and TikTok last August.

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With the submission of the first reports in October, platforms were scrutinised over the low number of content moderators they had in some of the smaller EU member states. Facebook has a single employee looking at Maltese content, and three in Estonia, claiming that much of the process is automated. In comparison, TikTok, which has fewer users per month, has six people looking at Estonian content and none for Maltese.

In light of the latest DSA probes started by the European Commission last week: into Facebook’s and Instagram’s handling of disinformation and ability to stop Russian fake news, all eyes will be on platforms’ election preparedness. And it remains to be seen if the social media platforms have taken more action compared to half a year ago.

With just about a month to go to the European Parliament election, the Commission is trying to ramp up platform preparedness for the poll. Stress-tests last month (24 April) were designed to help mitigate risks that may impact the integrity of elections and their services, for example.

However, as the latest Facebook and Instagram probes show, the Commission largely counting on the willingness of mother company Meta to comply; since there is no deadline for when the probes might end. 

Policy newsmakers

@Kergueno                                                                                                                @Uspaskich

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MEPs interests

MEPs collectively earn more than €8.6 million a year from outside jobs – including from private companies that also actively lobby on EU policy, according to a report published by Transparency International EU today (6 May). Topping the list is Lithuanian MEP Viktor Uspaskich, who declares €3,000,000 per year working for a company called Edvervita UAB. The group, including Raphaël Kergueno, senior policy officer at Transparency, has called for EU lawmakers to be banned from moonlighting, as figures show over two thirds of the 705 deputies disclose activities in addition to their core role. 

Policy Poll

Should MEPs elected to the next European Parliament be permitted remuneration:

From MEP salary alone

From additional side jobs

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Subscribe here to see the results of last week’s poll and stay informed on the latest EU policy developments with our weekly newsletter, “The Policy Briefing”. Your weekly insight on European rulemaking, policy issues, key events, and data trends.

Data brief

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With help from AI, Randy Travis got his voice back. Here's how his first song post-stroke came to be

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With help from AI, Randy Travis got his voice back. Here's how his first song post-stroke came to be

With some help from artificial intelligence, country music star Randy Travis, celebrated for his timeless hits like “Forever and Ever, Amen” and “I Told You So,” has his voice back.

In July 2013, Travis was hospitalized with viral cardiomyopathy, a virus that attacks the heart, and later suffered a stroke. The Country Music Hall of Famer had to relearn how to walk, spell and read in the years that followed. A condition called aphasia limits his ability to speak — it’s why his wife Mary Travis assists him in interviews. It’s also why he hasn’t released new music in over a decade, until now.

“What That Came From,” which released Friday, is a rich acoustic ballad amplified by Travis’ immediately recognizable, soulful vocal tone.

Cris Lacy, Warner Music Nashville co-president, approached Randy and Mary Travis and asked: “‘What if we could take Randy’s voice and recreate it using AI?,’” Mary Travis told The Associated Press over Zoom last week, Randy smiling in agreement right next to her. “Well, we were all over that, so we were so excited.”

“All I ever wanted since the day of a stroke was to hear that voice again.”

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Lacy tapped developers in London to create a proprietary AI model to begin the process. The result was two models: One with 12 vocal stems (or song samples), and another with 42 stems collected across Travis’ career — from 1985 to 2013, says Kyle Lehning, Travis’ longtime producer. Lacy and Lehning chose to use “Where That Came From,” a song written by Scotty Emerick and John Scott Sherrill that Lehning co-produced and held on to for years. He believed it could best articulate the humanity of Travis’ idiosyncratic vocal style.

“I never even thought about another song,” Lehning said.

Once he input the demo vocal (sung by James Dupree) into the AI models, “it took about five minutes to analyze,” says Lehning. “I really wish somebody had been here with a camera because I was the first person to hear it. And it was stunning, to me, how good it was sort of right off the bat. It’s hard to put an equation around it, but it was probably 70, 75% what you hear now.”

“There were certain aspects of it that were not authentic to Randy’s performance,” he said, so he began to edit and build on the recording with engineer Casey Wood, who also worked closely with Travis over a few decades.

The pair cherrypicked from the two models, and made alterations to things like vibrato speed, or slowing and relaxing phrases. “Randy is a laid-back singer,” Lehning says. “Randy, in my opinion, had an old soul quality to his voice. That’s one of the things that made him unique, but also, somehow familiar.”

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His vocal performance on “What That Came From” had to reflect that fact.

“We were able to just improve on it,” Lehning says of the AI recording. “It was emotional, and it’s still emotional.”

Mary Travis says the “human element,” and “the people that are involved” in this project, separate it from more nefarious uses of AI in music.

“Randy, I remember watching him when he first heard the song after it was completed. It was beautiful because at first, he was surprised, and then he was very pensive, and he was listening and studying,” she said. “And then he put his head down and his eyes were a little watery. I think he went through every emotion there was, in those three minutes of just hearing his voice again.”

Lacy agrees. “The beauty of this is, you know, we’re doing it with a voice that the world knows and has heard and has been comforted by,” she says.

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“But I think, just on human terms, it’s a very real need. And it’s a big loss when you lose the voice of someone that you were connected to, and the ability to have it back is a beautiful gift.”

They also hope that this song will work to educate people on the good that AI can do — not the fraudulent activities that so frequently make headlines. “We’re hoping that maybe we can set a standard,” Mary Travis says, where credit is given where credit is due — and artists have control over their voice and work.

Last month, over 200 artists signed an open letter submitted by the Artist Rights Alliance non-profit, calling on artificial intelligence tech companies, developers, platforms, digital music services and platforms to stop using AI “to infringe upon and devalue the rights of human artists.” Artists who co-signed included Stevie Wonder, Miranda Lambert, Billie Eilish, Nicki Minaj, Peter Frampton, Katy Perry, Smokey Robinson and J Balvin.

So, now that “Where That Came From” is here, will there be more original Randy Travis songs in the future?

“There may be others,” says Mary Travis. “We’ll see where this goes. This is such a foreign territory. There’s likely more on the horizon.”

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“We do have other tracks,” says Lacy, but Warner Music is being as selective. “This isn’t a stunt, and it’s not a parlor trick,” she added. “It was important to have a song worthy of him.”

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