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Trump-China tariff war: Who’s winning so far?

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Trump-China tariff war: Who’s winning so far?

After United States President Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” on major US trading partners on April 9, he ramped them up on China’s goods. US trade levies on most imports from China have climbed to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods.

Trump has long accused China of exploiting the US on trade, casting his tariffs as necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and reshore jobs back to the US. He also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims.

For now, the US and China are locked in a high-stakes game of chicken. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which will stay the course. As Trump nears his first 100 days in office for the second time, here’s where the tariff war with China stands:

What’s happening with negotiations?

Trump recently played up the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, the US president said his tariffs on China will “come down substantially” in the near future.

“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, stirring hopes of a de-escalation. He also said his administration was “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side without elaborating.

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On April 24, however, China’s Ministry of Commerce rebuffed president Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks taking place between the two countries.

“Any claims about the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” ministry spokesman He Yadong said.

While he insisted that Beijing won’t duck any economic blows from Washington, he also said the door was “wide open” for talks.

Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating exemptions for select US imports – a list of up to 131 products.

Beijing has not made any public statement on the issue.

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Has the tariff war impacted US exports?

Trump introduced his sweeping tariffs on China less than three weeks ago. The fallout for US businesses won’t be fully felt until later this year. Still, the warning signals are already flashing red.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that exports of soya beans – the biggest US farm export – fell dramatically for the period April 11-17, the first full week of reporting since Trump’s China tariff announcement.

By April 17, net sales of US soya beans dropped by 50 percent compared with the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent fall in weekly soya bean exports to China, which, until recently, was America’s biggest export destination for the legume.

According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China’s retaliatory tariffs will hit US farmers hard. Some may go out of business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would come under strain.

In 2023, the US exported roughly $15bn of oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy firms.

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Are imports to the US going to take a hit?

Since the start of Trump’s tariff war, cargo shipments have plummeted. According to Linerlytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese freight bookings bound for the US fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.

The drastic reduction in shipping from America’s third largest trading partner – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been felt. In May, however, thousands of companies will need to restock their inventories.

According to Bloomberg News, retail giants Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that supply shocks could roll out to Christmas.

Electronic appliances, such as TV sets and washing machines, made up 46.4 percent of US imports from China in 2022. The US also imports a lot of its clothing and pharmaceutical product ingredients from China. The price of these goods will begin to rise from next month.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised its US inflation forecast to 3 percent in 2025, owing to tariffs – a full 1 percentage point higher than in January. The lender also lowered its US economic growth forecast and raised its expectation that the US will tip into recession this year.

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How will China’s economy be affected?

Despite growing tensions between the US and China, Washington and Beijing remain major trading partners.

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year.

That amounts to roughly 3 percent of China’s total economic output, which remains heavily reliant on exports.

In a report shared with its clients this month, Goldman Sachs said it expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 2.4 percentage points.

For their part, China’s top officials said the country can do without American farm and energy imports and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.

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Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-US imports, domestic farm and energy production would be enough to satisfy demand.

“Even if we do not purchase feed grains and oilseeds from the United States, it will not have much impact on our country’s grain supply,” Zhao said on Monday.

He also noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing US fossil fuels.

In some ways, experts said, China has been preparing for this crisis.

Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The US is one of China’s biggest export markets, so tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing has played this smartly as it began diversifying its imports away from the US during the first Trump trade war” in 2018.

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He also pointed out that “the US depends on China for up to 60 percent of its critical mineral imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow simply isn’t there, so the US is more vulnerable.”

Could the US lose its geopolitical standing?

Trump has made little secret of his wish to conscript US allies into a trade war. The administration said it aims to strike free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.

More generally, reports suggest that Washington is asking trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a pre-condition for securing relief from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.

Nevertheless, US allies seem largely opposed to any economic showdown with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.

Elsewhere, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph newspaper: “China is the second biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish to not engage.”

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Many countries are not in a position to abandon their trade ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a huge trade deficit with China. Cutting off access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs for industry – would bruise its already sluggish economy.

Across the developing world, China’s trade role is equally as crucial. Roughly a quarter of Bangladesh’s and Cambodia’s imports come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for their goods imports.

“It’s hard to see why countries would want to undermine their own business interests to try and reduce America’s trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “On this point, I think Trump has been short-sighted and may be forced to blink first on lowering tariffs with China.”

Is Trump losing his grip on Republican voters?

The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to worry about its next election cycle. Trump’s Republican Party does, so Beijing has the political upper hand in Trump’s trade war. Simply put, it has more time on its side.

For Trump’s party, his sabre rattling already looks politically costly. A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans reporting Trump’s economic actions have hurt them personally more than they’ve helped by a 30-point margin.

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And public approval of the president’s economic management has been low for a while: It had fallen to 37 percent in a Reuters-Ipsos poll published on March 31, his lowest score ever in that survey.

If Trump stays the course, it is likely that his approval ratings might fall still lower, jeopardising the Republican Party’s fragile grip on the US House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate, experts said.

“For these reasons”, Fortunato said, “China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table to secure a trade deal. That will probably fall to Trump.”

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Natasha Lyonne Posts Health Update Two Months After Relapse: ‘Doing a Whole Lot Better and Back on Her Feet’

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Natasha Lyonne Posts Health Update Two Months After Relapse: ‘Doing a Whole Lot Better and Back on Her Feet’

Natasha Lyonne is thanking fans for their support after she revealed in January that she had relapsed and was no longer sober. “Proud to report this kid is doing a whole lot better and back on her feet,” she wrote.

“Want to thank our recovery communities and the fans who stood by and were so supportive. Aiming to keep the journey somehow private, but look forward to sharing my experience, strength and hope as makes sense.”

Lyonne struggled with addiction to drugs and alcohol throughout the 2000s.

After attending the Sundance Film Festival in late January, the “Poker Face” star wrote that she had relapsed and then added, “Recovery is a lifelong process. Anyone out there struggling, remember you’re not alone. Grateful for love & smart feet. Gonna do it for baby Bambo. Stay honest, folks. Sick as our secrets. If no one told ya today, I love you. No matter how far down the scales we have gone, we will see how our experience may help another. Keep going, kiddos. Don’t quit before the miracle. Wallpaper your mind with love. Rest is all noise & baloney.”

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“Poker Face” was canceled at Peacock in November, though Lyonne and producer MRC were shopping a new version that would star Peter Dinklage as the bullshit-detecting detective.

Lyonne has several feature projects in the works: She is set to write and direct the indie film “Bambo” about a New York boxing promoter and was previously set to make her directing debut with “Uncanny Valley,” produced by her AI film studio Asteria Film Co.

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Ukraine peace talks on ‘situational pause’ as Middle East conflict intensifies: Kremlin

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Ukraine peace talks on ‘situational pause’ as Middle East conflict intensifies: Kremlin

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Ukraine peace talks are on a “situational pause” as the Middle East conflict intensifies, the Kremlin said Thursday, even as Kyiv signaled negotiations could resume as soon as this weekend.

Following reports in Russian media that the Kremlin had paused talks on Ukraine and that the Middle East conflict could push Kyiv toward compromise, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the pause.

“This is a situational pause, for obvious reasons,” Peskov told reporters when asked about the report, according to Reuters.

Peskov added that as soon as “our American partners” could refocus on the Ukraine conflict, Moscow hopes the pause will end and new talks can begin, the outlet reported.

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UKRAINE TO MEET TRUMP ENVOYS AHEAD OF HIGH-STAKES GENEVA TALKS WITH RUSSIA AS WAR ENTERS FIFTH YEAR

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. (Danylo Antoniuk/AP)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video posted on X that Kyiv has received signals from the U.S. that it is ready to resume talks aimed at ending the war.

“There has been a pause in the talks, and it is time to resume them,” he said. “We are doing everything to ensure that the negotiations are genuinely substantive.”

Zelenskyy added that a Ukrainian negotiating team is already on its way to the U.S. and is expected to hold meetings Saturday.

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RUSSIA, UKRAINE TO DISCUSS TERRITORY AS TRUMP SAYS BOTH SIDES ‘WANT TO MAKE A DEAL’

Firefighters put out the fire in the ruins of an apartment building following Russia’s missile attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, March 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said the “hatred” between Russia and Ukraine was getting in the way of reaching a peace deal.

Speaking at the Shield of the Americas Summit in Doral, Florida, Trump said the “hatred between Putin and his counterpart is so great.”

“It’s so great that, you know, Ukraine, Russia, you’d think there would be a little bit of camaraderie, [but] there’s not. And the hatred is so great. It’s very hard for them to get there. It’s very, very hard to get there. So we’ll see what happens,” Trump said. “But we’ve been close a lot of times and one or the other would back out.”

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UKRAINE’S ZELENSKYY: RUSSIA TRYING ‘TO PLAY’ GAME WITH TRUMP, STALL PEACE TALKS

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands at a news conference following a meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on December 28, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Trump’s comments came after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in January that Russia was losing between 20,000 and 25,000 troops each month in its war against Ukraine.

The pause in talks comes as Ukraine is increasingly being drawn into the wider Middle East conflict.

With the conflict in Iran now in its third week, Ukraine is providing technology and battlefield-tested tactics to counter Iranian drone attacks.

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U.S. and Gulf partners have requested Ukrainian assistance, with Kyiv signaling it is prepared to share both systems and personnel to help defend against Iranian aerial threats.

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman-Diamond and Morgan Phillips contributed to this report, along with Reuters.

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‘Nobody can blackmail us’: Leaders excoriate Orbán’s veto

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‘Nobody can blackmail us’: Leaders excoriate Orbán’s veto

Fury over Viktor Orbán’s decision to veto the European Union’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine burst into the open on Thursday as leaders castigated, one by one, in the harshest terms yet, the “unacceptable” behaviour of the Hungarian prime minister.

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The condemnation was led by António Costa, the usually mild-mannered president of the European Council, whose authority is being directly challenged by Orbán’s disruption.

“The leaders took the floor to condemn the attitude from Viktor Orbán, to remember that a deal is a deal and all the leaders need to honour that word,” Costa said at the end of the summit, venting months of frustration over the antics of the Hungarian.

“Nobody can blackmail the European Council. Nobody can blackmail the European Union institutions,” he told reporters after being questioned by Euronews, insisting that the loan will be paid out as agreed last December. Still, Orbán doubled down on his veto.

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Separately, Costa praised Ukraine’s efforts to repair the Druzhba pipeline and allow an EU-led inspection on site in line with demands by Hungary and Slovakia just days before the summit, despite the fact that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was personally against reinstating transit of Russian oil through Ukraine as the war continues.

Orbán insists that Ukraine has purposely sabotaged the pipeline to orchestrate an energy crisis ahead of a tight election on April 12. Zelenskyy says the allegation is unfounded but has also lashed out in public at Orbán in multiple occasions.

Costa, according to a diplomat, said both must tone down the rhetoric, but also noted that Hungary is putting on the table impossible conditions, such as ensuring the safety of transit, while Russia keeps pounding Ukraine with missiles and drones.

“This is not acting in good faith, when you put a condition that neither the European Union nor the member states can ensure,” Costa said.

“Because only Russia is willing to decide if they try again to destroy the Druzhba pipeline,” he added, noting Moscow has attacked it more than 20 times since 2022.

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“And of course, it is not the responsibility of Ukraine, the Commission, the European Council or any member state.”

In an effort to break the impasse, Brussels announced two days before the summit that Ukraine had allowed an external inspection and the EU would provide funding to fix the pipeline. But the pressure on Zelenskyy to approve the on-site mission failed to get the Hungarian leader to change his mind.

And it now poses a direct threat to the credibility of the institutions, the functioning of the EU and the top leadership from Costa to Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

On Thursday evening, von der Leyen said Hungary, alongside Slovakia and the Czech Republic, agreed at the highest political level to go ahead with the loan in December in exchange for being financially exempted.

“That condition has been fulfilled. So let us be clear about where we stand: the loan remains blocked because one leader is not honouring his word,” she said.

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“But let me reiterate what I already said in Kyiv: we will deliver one way or the other.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also accused Orbán of an “act of serious disloyalty” that should be prevented in the future, changing voting rules if necessary.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the December deal to be respected and warned that concerns about energy security “must not be instrumentalised”.

Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson, Austria’s Christian Stocker and Belgium’s Bart De Wever were among those who criticised Orbán for exploiting the dispute with Kyiv for his re-election campaign, which has taken an explosive tone in its final stretch.

High Representative Kaja Kallas went further, questioning the motivations of the veto and the Hungarian arguments: “I guess, in the time of elections, people are not that rational.”

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No backing down

A roundtable session described as “heated and tense” by diplomats was not enough to get Orbán to back down. If anything, he doubled down. And leaders quickly understood the veto will most certainly remain until the Hungarian elections take place.

After the summit, the Hungarian leader went a step beyond and suggested Brussels is working with Ukraine to force a pro-Brussels government in Budapest.

“The European institutions, including parts of the Commission and the European Parliament, would like to have a change of government in Hungary. And they finance it,” he said as he departed the meeting.

The accusations are not new, but they are serious as they imply political meddling. As the campaign enters its final weeks, Orbán is intensifying his attacks on his opponent, Péter Magyar, as a puppet candidate of von der Leyen and Zelenskyy.

Before leaving Brussels, he vowed to “no money for Ukraine” until the oil flows are back and claimed he “had defended the Hungarian national interest by breaking the blockade”.

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The Hungarian veto comes at a precarious time for Europe.

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has cut off all assistance to Ukraine, leaving Europeans to pick up the tab alone.

The €90 billion loan agreed in December, following contentious talks among leaders, serves as the backbone of Ukraine’s budget needs for 2026 and 2027. Without it, Ukrainian authorities have warned they may not be able to make ends meet, and that could have serious repercussions on the battlefield.

Under the original plan, Kyiv was supposed to receive the first payment in early April to avoid a sudden cut-off in foreign assistance. But the veto, coupled with the Hungarian vote, has thrown that timeline into disarray.

Although opinion polls show Orbán trailing Magyar by double digits, he could still win as the gap narrows ahead of the vote and prolong the veto even further.

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To make matters more difficult, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose country is also connected to Druzhba, has warned that he will continue the blockage if Orbán loses the elections and the pipeline is not repaired.

The dispute poses an exceptionally complex challenge for Brussels, which is caught between safeguarding energy security for member states and supporting Ukraine.

For António Costa, the person tasked with ensuring that decisions taken by EU leaders are upheld, Orbán’s defiance threatens to undercut his authority.

“It’s completely unacceptable what Hungary is doing,” Costa said on Thursday. “And this behaviour cannot be accepted by the leaders.”

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