World
Trump-China tariff war: Who’s winning so far?
After United States President Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” on major US trading partners on April 9, he ramped them up on China’s goods. US trade levies on most imports from China have climbed to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods.
Trump has long accused China of exploiting the US on trade, casting his tariffs as necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and reshore jobs back to the US. He also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims.
For now, the US and China are locked in a high-stakes game of chicken. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which will stay the course. As Trump nears his first 100 days in office for the second time, here’s where the tariff war with China stands:
What’s happening with negotiations?
Trump recently played up the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, the US president said his tariffs on China will “come down substantially” in the near future.
“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, stirring hopes of a de-escalation. He also said his administration was “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side without elaborating.
On April 24, however, China’s Ministry of Commerce rebuffed president Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks taking place between the two countries.
“Any claims about the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” ministry spokesman He Yadong said.
While he insisted that Beijing won’t duck any economic blows from Washington, he also said the door was “wide open” for talks.
Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating exemptions for select US imports – a list of up to 131 products.
Beijing has not made any public statement on the issue.
Has the tariff war impacted US exports?
Trump introduced his sweeping tariffs on China less than three weeks ago. The fallout for US businesses won’t be fully felt until later this year. Still, the warning signals are already flashing red.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that exports of soya beans – the biggest US farm export – fell dramatically for the period April 11-17, the first full week of reporting since Trump’s China tariff announcement.
By April 17, net sales of US soya beans dropped by 50 percent compared with the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent fall in weekly soya bean exports to China, which, until recently, was America’s biggest export destination for the legume.
According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China’s retaliatory tariffs will hit US farmers hard. Some may go out of business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would come under strain.
In 2023, the US exported roughly $15bn of oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy firms.
Are imports to the US going to take a hit?
Since the start of Trump’s tariff war, cargo shipments have plummeted. According to Linerlytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese freight bookings bound for the US fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.
The drastic reduction in shipping from America’s third largest trading partner – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been felt. In May, however, thousands of companies will need to restock their inventories.
According to Bloomberg News, retail giants Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that supply shocks could roll out to Christmas.
Electronic appliances, such as TV sets and washing machines, made up 46.4 percent of US imports from China in 2022. The US also imports a lot of its clothing and pharmaceutical product ingredients from China. The price of these goods will begin to rise from next month.
On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised its US inflation forecast to 3 percent in 2025, owing to tariffs – a full 1 percentage point higher than in January. The lender also lowered its US economic growth forecast and raised its expectation that the US will tip into recession this year.
How will China’s economy be affected?
Despite growing tensions between the US and China, Washington and Beijing remain major trading partners.
According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year.
That amounts to roughly 3 percent of China’s total economic output, which remains heavily reliant on exports.
In a report shared with its clients this month, Goldman Sachs said it expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 2.4 percentage points.
For their part, China’s top officials said the country can do without American farm and energy imports and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.
Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-US imports, domestic farm and energy production would be enough to satisfy demand.
“Even if we do not purchase feed grains and oilseeds from the United States, it will not have much impact on our country’s grain supply,” Zhao said on Monday.
He also noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing US fossil fuels.
In some ways, experts said, China has been preparing for this crisis.
Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The US is one of China’s biggest export markets, so tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing has played this smartly as it began diversifying its imports away from the US during the first Trump trade war” in 2018.
He also pointed out that “the US depends on China for up to 60 percent of its critical mineral imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow simply isn’t there, so the US is more vulnerable.”
Could the US lose its geopolitical standing?
Trump has made little secret of his wish to conscript US allies into a trade war. The administration said it aims to strike free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.
More generally, reports suggest that Washington is asking trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a pre-condition for securing relief from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.
Nevertheless, US allies seem largely opposed to any economic showdown with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.
Elsewhere, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph newspaper: “China is the second biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish to not engage.”
Many countries are not in a position to abandon their trade ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a huge trade deficit with China. Cutting off access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs for industry – would bruise its already sluggish economy.
Across the developing world, China’s trade role is equally as crucial. Roughly a quarter of Bangladesh’s and Cambodia’s imports come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for their goods imports.
“It’s hard to see why countries would want to undermine their own business interests to try and reduce America’s trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “On this point, I think Trump has been short-sighted and may be forced to blink first on lowering tariffs with China.”
Is Trump losing his grip on Republican voters?
The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to worry about its next election cycle. Trump’s Republican Party does, so Beijing has the political upper hand in Trump’s trade war. Simply put, it has more time on its side.
For Trump’s party, his sabre rattling already looks politically costly. A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans reporting Trump’s economic actions have hurt them personally more than they’ve helped by a 30-point margin.
And public approval of the president’s economic management has been low for a while: It had fallen to 37 percent in a Reuters-Ipsos poll published on March 31, his lowest score ever in that survey.
If Trump stays the course, it is likely that his approval ratings might fall still lower, jeopardising the Republican Party’s fragile grip on the US House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate, experts said.
“For these reasons”, Fortunato said, “China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table to secure a trade deal. That will probably fall to Trump.”
World
Takeaways from AP’s story on the links between eviction and school
ATLANTA (AP) — When families are evicted, it can lead to major disruptions to their children’s schooling.
Federal law includes provisions to help homeless and evicted kids stay at their schools, but families don’t always know about them — and schools don’t always share the information. Beyond the instability that comes with losing their home, relocating also can deprive kids of networks they rely on for support.
AP followed the year-long quest of one Atlanta mother, Sechita McNair, to find new housing after an eviction. The out-of-work film industry veteran drove extra hours for Uber and borrowed money, eventually securing a lease in the right neighborhood so her eldest son could stay at his high school. At $2,200 a month, it was the only “semi-affordable” apartment in the rapidly gentrifying Old Fourth Ward that would rent to a single mom with a fresh eviction on her record.
Even so, her son was not thriving. McNair considered a homeschooling program before re-enrolling him at the coveted high school. Despite continuing challenges, McNair is determined to provide her three children with better educational opportunities.
Here are some key takeaways from AP’s year following McNair’s journey.
Evictions often lead families to schools with fewer resources
Like many evicted families, McNair and her kids went from living in a school district that spends more money on students to one that spends less.
Atlanta spends nearly $20,000 per student a year, $7,000 more than the suburban district the family moved to after they were evicted from their apartment last year. More money in schools means smaller classrooms and more psychologists, guidance counselors and other support.
Thanks to federal laws protecting homeless and evicted students, McNair’s kids were able to keep attending their Atlanta schools, even though the only housing available to them was in another county 40 minutes away. They also had the right to free transportation to those schools, but McNair says the district didn’t tell her about that until the school year ended. Once they found new housing, their eligibility to remain in those schools expired at the end of last school year.
Support systems matter, too
The suburban neighborhood where the family landed after the eviction is filled with brick colonials and manicured lawns. McNair knows it’s the dream for some families, but not hers. “It’s a support desert,” she said.
McNair, who grew up in New Jersey near New York City, sees opportunities in the wider city of Atlanta. She wants to use its libraries, e-scooters, bike paths, hospitals, rental assistance agencies, Buy Nothing groups and food pantries.
“These are all resources that make it possible to raise a family when you don’t have support,” she said. “Wouldn’t anyone want that?”
It’s tough to find safe, affordable housing after an eviction
It took months for McNair to scrape together funds and find a landlord in her gentrifying neighborhood who would rent to her in spite of her recent eviction.
On Zillow, the second-floor apartment, built in 2005, looked like a middle-class dream with its granite countertops, crown molding and polished wood floors. But up close, the apartment looked abused. Her tour of the apartment was rushed, and the lease was full of errors. She signed anyway.
Shortly after — while she was still waiting for the landlord to install more smoke detectors and fix the oven and fridge — McNair’s keys stopped working. The apartment had been sold in a short sale.
The new owners wanted McNair to leave, but she consulted with attorneys, who reassured her she could stay. Eventually, she even moved some of the family’s belongings to the apartment.
But a new apartment in their preferred neighborhood doesn’t solve everything. At night, McNair’s 15-year-old son, Elias, has been responsible for his younger brothers while she heads out to drive for Uber. That’s what is necessary to pay $450 a week to rent the car and earn enough to pay her rent and bills.
While McNair is out, she can’t monitor Elias. And a few days after he started school, Elias’s all-night gaming habit had already drawn teachers’ attention. As she drove for Uber one night, she couldn’t stop thinking about emails from his teachers. “I should be home making sure Elias gets to bed on time,” she says, crying. “But I have to work. I’m the only one paying the bills.”
Consistency is important for a teen’s learning
McNair attributed some of Elias’s lack of motivation at school to personal trauma. His father died after a heart attack in 2023, on the sidelines of Elias’s basketball practice. Wounded by that loss and multiple housing displacements, Elias failed two classes last year, his freshman year. His mother feared switching schools would jeopardize any chance he had of recovering his academic life.
But after Elias started skipping school this fall, McNair filed papers declaring her intention to homeschool him.
It quickly proved challenging. Elias wouldn’t do any schoolwork when he was home alone. And when the homeschooling group met twice a week, McNair discovered, they required parents to pick up their children afterward instead of allowing them to take public transit or e-scooters. That was untenable.
McNair considered enrolling her son in the suburban school district, but an Atlanta schools official advised against transferring if possible. He needs to be in school — preferably the Atlanta school he has attended — studying for midterms, the official said.
Now, with Elias back in school every day, McNair can deliver food through Uber Eats without worrying about a police officer asking why her kid isn’t in school. If only she had pushed harder, sooner, for help with Elias, she thought.
But it was easy for her to explain why she hadn’t. “I was running around doing so many other things just so we have a place to live, or taking care of my uncle, that I didn’t put enough of my energy there.”
____
The Associated Press’ education coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
World
Canadian spy chief warns of alarming rise in teen terror suspects, ‘potentially lethal’ threats by Iran
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Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) Director Daniel Rogers, during a rare public appearance Thursday, said nearly one in 10 of the agency’s terrorism investigations include at least one person under the age of 18, an alarming trend driven by online extremism.
Since 2014, there have been nearly two dozen violent extremist attacks in Canada resulting in 29 deaths and at least 60 injuries, according to Rogers.
Worryingly, he said, nearly one in ten terrorism investigations at CSIS, the country’s domestic spy agency, include at least one “subject of investigation” under the age of 18.
In August, a minor was arrested in Montreal for allegedly planning an attack on behalf of the terrorist group Daesh, according to Rogers.
Dan Rogers, a national security and intelligence advisor, made a rare speech Thursday. (Reuters/Blair Gable/File Photo)
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Just a few months earlier, a 15-year-old Edmonton-area minor was charged with a terrorism-related offense, after Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) investigators feared the teen would commit serious violence related to COM/764, a transnational violent online network that manipulates children and youth across widely accessible online platforms.
Rogers also noted two 15-year-olds were arrested in Ottawa for allegedly conspiring to conduct a mass casualty attack targeting the Jewish community in Canada’s capital in late 2023 and early 2024.
“Clearly, radicalized youth can cause the same harms as radicalized adults, but the societal supports for youth may help us catch radicalization early and prevent it,” Rogers said. “These tragic numbers would have been higher if not for disruptive actions taken by CSIS and our law enforcement partners.”
Multiple attacks over the last year were intercepted by Canadian authorities, officials said. (Fox News Digital/Lisa Bennatan)
The CSIS joined the RCMP and intelligence partners from the U.S., United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand in releasing a joint public report in December, highlighting the evolving issue of young people and violent extremism.
The report provides advice to parents, guardians and others with information to help them identify early concerns and address youth radicalization before it’s too late.
“Since 2022, CSIS has been involved in the disruption of no fewer than 24 violent extremist actions, each resulting in arrests or terrorism peace bond charges,” Rogers said. “In 2024, CSIS played an integral role in the disruption of two Daesh-inspired plots.
“In one case, a father and son were allegedly in the advanced stages of planning an attack in the Toronto area. In another, an individual was arrested before allegedly attempting to illegally enter the United States to attack members of the Jewish community in New York. In these examples, and in many others I can’t discuss publicly, our counter-terrorism teams have partnered with law enforcement and saved lives.”
Canadian officials said they also blocked potentially ‘lethal threats’ by Iran. (Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu Agency)
ONLINE ‘GORE’ FORUMS ARE ‘GATEWAY TO EXTREMISM’ IN MASS SHOOTINGS, NORMALIZING HORROR FOR KIDS: EXPERTS
He attributed the radicalization to “eroding social cohesion, increasing polarization and significant global events,” which he said “provide fertile ground for radicalization.”
“Many who turn to violence radicalize exclusively online, often without direction from others,” Rogers said. “They use technology to do so secretly and anonymously, seriously challenging the ability of our investigators to keep pace and to identify and prevent acts of violence.”
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Rogers also noted the CSIS collects intelligence and defends against transnational repression, previously focusing on transnational repression by the People’s Republic of China, India and others.
“In particularly alarming cases over the last year, we’ve had to reprioritize our operations to counter the actions of Iranian intelligence services and their proxies who have targeted individuals they perceive as threats to their regime,” he said. “In more than one case, this involved detecting, investigating and disrupting potentially lethal threats against individuals in Canada.”
World
Italy redefines sexual violence law to include explicit consent
By Euronews
Published on
Italy’s Chamber of Deputies Justice Commission has approved an amendment to the sexual violence bill to include mandatory consent, in a shift from previous law that focused on physical coercion or threats.
The amendment, presented by Michela Di Biase of the Democratic Party (PD) and Carolina Varchi of Brothers of Italy (FdI), was backed directly by party leaders Elly Schlein and Giorgia Meloni following contacts in recent days, according to parliamentary sources.
“This is an important step forward for the Italian penal code,” Di Biase said during commission proceedings.
“This new text represents a great cultural change, because too often we have witnessed women being forced to justify themselves even in the face of the violence they have suffered. Sex without consent is rape,” she explained.
The new text states that anyone who commits or induces sexual acts without the free and current consent of the other person will face six to 12 years imprisonment.
Consent is defined as a “free, conscious and unequivocal manifestation of the person’s willingness to participate in the sexual act” valid for the entire duration of the act and revocable at any time.
Consent obtained by coercion, abuse of authority, threat, deception or by taking advantage of a condition of physical or mental vulnerability is not valid under the amendment.
The change updates Article 609-bis of the Criminal Code, which was introduced by Law No 66 of 1996 and moved sexual violence from the sphere of public morality to crimes against the person.
Law No 69/2019, known as the Code Red, raised penalties from six to 12 years and introduced specific aggravating circumstances.
The definition aligns with the Istanbul Convention and jurisprudence from Italy’s Supreme Court, which has recognised sexual violence even in the absence of physical resistance.
The amendment is scheduled to be passed to the Chamber of Deputies next Monday before moving to the Senate.
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