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The War in Syria Has a New Map. Again.

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The War in Syria Has a New Map. Again.

Sources: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project (areas of control as of Dec. 5); Janes (rebel control as of November)

In just over a week, Syrian rebel forces have seized much of Syria’s northwest from the government in a fast-moving attack, upending the once-stagnant civil war. After capturing most of the major city of Aleppo, its airport, military bases and many towns and villages, on Thursday they drove government troops from the western city of Hama, which had never before fallen into rebel hands.

The offensive comes after a period of relative, if brittle, calm. Since 2020, the territorial map had stayed largely frozen: President Bashar al-Assad’s government dominated much of the country, while an array of other factions held different fragments of the rest.

Here’s who is fighting whom in Syria’s nearly 14-year-old civil war:

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Opposition forces

Their territory had shrunk until advances this week.

Source: The Carter Center. Note: Opposition forces include both extremist Islamic and moderate factions.

The war erupted in 2011 after Mr. al-Assad brutally crushed antigovernment protests. In the early stages, rebels — who included both extremist Islamist and moderate factions — managed to take most of the country’s northwest and expanded into other territory. By 2014, they controlled not only their stronghold in the northwest, but also areas north of Hama, east of Damascus and in the southeast, near the Israeli border, as well as villages along the Euphrates and in al-Hasakah province, in Syria’s far northeast.

Then came the rise of the Islamic State in 2014 and Russia’s decision the following year to give Mr. al-Assad military support. The Islamic State expanded its so-called caliphate into northeastern Syria, while overpowering Russian airstrikes forced the rebel groups that had been battling Mr. al-Assad since 2011 to retreat. By this year, those opposition forces held nothing but a patch of the northwest until their latest offensive began last week.

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Government forces and allies

The conflict had shifted in their favor years ago — but now they are retreating.

Source: The Carter Center

Despite initial rebel successes, pro-Assad forces — including not only Syria’s military but also fighters sent by Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah — were able to retake more territory over the last decade after a series of events shifted the conflict in their favor. Pro-government troops recaptured Aleppo with the help of Russian airstrikes after a four-year battle ending in 2016. The next year, a government offensive against the Islamic State put Mr. al-Assad back in control of many towns along the Euphrates River. And his forces’ advance on northwestern Syria in 2019 and 2020 cornered opposition forces in Idlib Province, bringing the conflict to an impasse that lasted until a week ago.

Islamic State

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It once held a third of Syria.

Source: The Carter Center

Syria’s civil war, along with growing instability in Iraq, allowed an ambitious Al Qaeda offshoot called the Islamic State to mushroom rapidly across both countries in 2013 and 2014. Fueled by a bloody, ultra-extremist interpretation of Islam, it conquered an expanse of territory in Syria and Iraq that it ruled as a so-called caliphate. At its height in 2015, the group held a third of Syria and about 40 percent of Iraq, with the northern Syrian city of Raqqa as its capital.

But a Western coalition led by the United States targeted the group with thousands of airstrikes, and U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces eventually routed the Islamic State in much of northeastern Syria. Pro-Assad forces also pushed the group back in other areas, while the Iraqi army battled it in Iraq. By 2018, it had lost all but tiny shreds of its territory.

Kurdish-led forces

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They took territory from the Islamic State, but lost other ground to Turkish-backed forces.

Source: The Carter Center

Forces from Syria’s Kurdish ethnic minority became the United States’ main local partner in the fight against the Islamic State. After the extremist group was defeated in large parts of the country, the Kurdish-led forces consolidated control over towns in the northeast, expanding an autonomous region they had built there, and along the Euphrates. But despite routing the Islamic State, Kurdish fighters still had to contend with their longtime enemy across the border, Turkey, which regards them as linked to a Kurdish separatist insurgency.

In 2019, President Donald J. Trump pulled American troops away from northern Syria, abandoning the Kurdish-led forces and opening the door for Turkish forces to oust them from areas along the northern border. Looking for protection against Turkey, the Kurdish-led forces turned to Damascus, allowing Mr. al-Assad’s forces to return to parts of northern Syria, where they have co-existed since. The Kurds still control much of northeastern Syria.

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Turkish military operations

Captured parts of the northern border area from Kurdish-led forces.

Source: The Carter Center

Since the beginning of the civil war, the Turkish military has launched several military interventions across the border into Syria, mostly against Syrian Kurdish-led forces, whom Turkey views as linked to what it calls a terrorist separatist movement in Turkey, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K. Three Turkish operations – in 2016-2017, 2018 and 2019 – were aimed at taking control of towns and villages the Kurdish-led fighters had previously held along the northern border. Turkey now effectively controls that zone, where it provides public services and where its currency is routinely used.

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Ukraine drops NATO goal as Trump envoy sees progress in peace talks

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Ukraine drops NATO goal as Trump envoy sees progress in peace talks
  • Trump envoy says a lot of progress made in Berlin talks
  • Negotiations to continue on Monday morning
  • Zelenskiy seeks guarantees against future Russian attacks
  • German defence minister warns on security guarantees

BERLIN/KYIV, Dec 14 (Reuters) – President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to drop Ukraine’s aspirations to join the NATO military alliance as he held five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin on Sunday to end the war with Russia, with negotiations set to continue on Monday.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said “a lot of progress was made” as he and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met Zelenskiy in the latest push to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War Two, though full details were not divulged.

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Zelenskiy’s adviser Dmytro Lytvyn said the president would comment on the talks on Monday once they were completed. Officials, Lytvyn said, were considering the draft documents.

“They went on for more than five hours and ended for today with an agreement to resume tomorrow morning,” Lytvyn told reporters in a WhatsApp chat.

Ahead of the talks, Zelenskiy offered to drop Ukraine’s goal to join NATO in exchange for Western security guarantees.

The move marks a major shift for Ukraine, which has fought to join NATO as a safeguard against Russian attacks and has such an aspiration included in its constitution. It also meets one of Russia’s war aims, although Kyiv has so far held firm against ceding territory to Moscow.

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“Representatives held in-depth discussions regarding the 20-point plan for peace, economic agendas, and more. A lot of progress was made, and they will meet again tomorrow morning,” Witkoff said in a post on X.

The talks were hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who a source said had made brief remarks before leaving the two sides to negotiate. Other European leaders are also due in Germany for talks on Monday.

“From the very beginning, Ukraine’s desire was to join NATO, these are real security guarantees. Some partners from the U.S. and Europe did not support this direction,” Zelenskiy said in answer to questions from reporters in a WhatsApp chat.

“Thus, today, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the U.S., Article 5-like guarantees for us from the U.S., and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries — Canada, Japan — are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion,” Zelenskiy said.

“And it is already a compromise on our part,” he said, adding the security guarantees should be legally binding.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demanded Ukraine officially renounce its NATO ambitions and withdraw troops from the about 10% of Donbas which Kyiv still controls. Moscow has also said Ukraine must be a neutral country and no NATO troops can be stationed in Ukraine.

Russian sources said earlier this year that Putin wants a “written” pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the U.S.-led NATO alliance eastwards – shorthand for formally ruling out membership to Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other former Soviet republics.
Sending Witkoff, who has led negotiations with Ukraine and Russia on a U.S. peace proposal, appeared to be a signal that Washington saw a chance of progress nearly four years after Russia’s 2022 invasion.

Under pressure from Trump to sign a peace deal that initially backed Moscow’s demands, Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war through deadly bombings of cities and Ukraine’s power and water supplies.

A ceasefire along the current front lines would be a fair option, he added.

‘CRITICAL MOMENT’

Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said it was a “good sign” Trump had sent his envoys while fielding questions in an interview with the ZDF broadcaster on the suitability of Witkoff and Kushner, two businessmen, as negotiators.

“It’s certainly anything but an ideal setup for such negotiations. That much is clear. But as they say, you can only dance with the people on the dance floor,” Pistorius said.

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On the issue of Ukraine’s offer to give up its NATO aspirations in exchange for security guarantees, Pistorius said Ukraine had bitter prior experience of relying on security assurances. Kyiv had in 1994 agreed to give up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in exchange for territorial guarantees from the U.S., Russia and Britain.

“Therefore, it remains to be seen to what extent this statement Zelenskiy has now made will actually hold true, and what preconditions must be met,” Pistorius said.

“This concerns territorial issues, commitments from Russia and others,” he said, adding mere security guarantees, especially without significant U.S. involvement, “wouldn’t be worth much.”

Britain, France and Germany have been working to refine the U.S. proposals, which in a draft disclosed last month called for Kyiv to cede more territory, abandon its NATO ambitions and accept limits on its armed forces.

European allies have described this as a “critical moment” that could shape Ukraine’s future, and sought to shore up Kyiv’s finances by leveraging frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Kyiv’s military and civilian budget.

Reporting by Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Olena Harmash, Andreas Rinke, Ron Popeski, David Ljunggren; writing by Matthias Williams; editing by Alexander Smith and Chris Reese

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US veteran rescues ‘most wanted woman in Western Hemisphere’ from Venezuela in secret operation

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US veteran rescues ‘most wanted woman in Western Hemisphere’ from Venezuela in secret operation

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The rescue operation to extract Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado and transport her to Norway in time to accept her Nobel Peace Prize involved a complex series of complications and various components in land, sea and air.   

The mission, dubbed Operation Golden Dynamite, was spearheaded by Bryan Stern, a U.S. special forces veteran and founder of the Tampa-based Grey Bull Rescue Foundation, which specializes in high-risk rescue missions and evacuations, notably from conflict and disaster zones.

Getting her out of Venezuela, where she is considered a fugitive by President Nicolás Maduro, involved disguises, deception, navigating choppy seas and arranging flight options.

“She’s perceived by the Maduro regime the way we perceived Osama bin Laden, like that,” Stern told Fox News. “That level of manhunt if you will.”

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US COVERT TEAM LEADER DESCRIBES ‘DANGEROUS’ MISSION TO RESCUE VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION LEADER

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gestures at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolás Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela, January 9, 2025.  (Maxwell Briceno/Reuters)

Machado has been hiding out in Venezuela since Maduro won a highly disputed election last year and had not been seen in public in months. 

Stern emphasized that the U.S. government was not involved in the operation. 

His team had been building up a presence in the Caribbean, Venezuela and the neighboring island of Aruba in preparation for operations in the South American region.

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The biggest challenge, Stern said, was getting Machado out of the country despite her being a well-known figure there. In order to move her from her house to a “beach landing site,” his team reportedly did “all kinds of things designed to create a little bit of confusion.”

“Anything that we could have possibly think of that we thought could hide her face … was employed.” Stern said. “Anything we could think of, her digital signature, her physical signature. On top of that, we did some deception operations on the ground. We made some noise in some places designed to get people to think something was happening that wasn’t.”

VENEZUELAN DISSIDENT MACHADO CREDITS TRUMP FOR ADVANCING FREEDOM MOVEMENT, DEDICATES NOBEL TO HIM

Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro brandishes a sword said to have belonged to independence hero Simon Bolivar during a civic-military event at the military academy in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025.  (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)

The maritime operation started off rough, Stern recounted. Of the two boats deployed for the mission, the vessel that physically extracted Machado reportedly lost its GPS in the turbulent seas and suffered a mechanical hiccup that delayed the operation. The team was forced to continue into the “dead of night” in “pitch-black darkness,” navigating seas so violent that one of Stern’s seasoned operators reportedly vomited for nine hours straight.

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Reaching the rendezvous point added another layer of difficulty. Stern’s boat and Machado’s vessel had to find each other in pitch-black seas while maintaining radio silence to avoid detection, ultimately locating one another by flashlight.

Stern said he had to remain cautious, fearing that the approaching boat could have been a trap set by Venezuelan forces. To confirm it was safe to proceed, his larger vessel circled Machado’s boat and shined lights on the crew. 

After Stern physically pulled Machado onto his boat, he then alerted the rest of the team that Machado was secured: “Jackpot, jackpot, jackpot.”

“Now we are on the run with Maria Corina Machado, the most wanted woman in the Western Hemisphere, on my boat,” he said.

“I have the most wanted person in the Western hemisphere that I’m trying to move around,” Stern said. “Personally, she’s a hero of mine. She’s a hero of mine. I’ve been tracking her for years.”

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VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS COUNTRY AT ‘THRESHOLD OF FREEDOM’ AS NEW MANIFESTO ENVISIONS REGIME CHANGE

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado waves at the Grand Hotel in Oslo, Norway, early Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025. (Lise Åserud/NTB Scanpix via AP)

Once in international waters, the new concern was avoiding any appearance that they had kidnapped a Venezuelan, which would have given the government any justification to attack.

“They lie. They could have killed us for any reason,” Stern said. “We’re in the middle of the d— ocean and there’s no one around to see the truth … we are scared, we are nervous, we’re on the run and we floor it getting to the rendezvous.”

Stern ordered his boat captain to drive full throttle and not stop for anything, fearing pursuit by the Venezuelan regime.

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“My boat guy, I told him I don’t care, I don’t care who comes,” Stern said. “You don’t stop. You do not stop. I don’t care, I don’t care who. You do not stop at all. Let them chase us if they have to. We have got to get to land.”

At some point during the escape, two F-18 fighter jets reportedly flew overhead. Stern described the moment as a potential complication, since they could not determine whether the jets were hostile or friendly, though he noted it was likely not part of a Navy coordination.

“There’s an aircraft carrier in the Caribbean throwing airplanes off every twenty minutes. I don’t know,” Stern said. “I can tell you that nobody in the Navy said, ‘Don’t worry, brother, we sent two F-18s to cover you.’”

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The maritime team successfully delivered Machado to safety. Stern said his team had also prepared for a possible air extraction, but that plan was abandoned after a last-minute change on Machado’s side. Instead, the final flight to Norway was arranged by her personal network using a friend’s private jet, culminating in her safe arrival.

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While Grey Bull Rescue has conducted operations in high-threat environments such as Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, Stern said the extraction of Machado was uniquely challenging, describing it as “overwhelmingly” the most complicated mission in the organization’s 800-mission history.

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South Korea indicts ex-leader Yoon over power plot provoking North

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South Korea indicts ex-leader Yoon over power plot provoking North

Jailed former president accused of a plot to provoke military aggression from North to help consolidate his rule.

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Prosecutors have indicted former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for insurrection, accusing him of seeking to provoke military aggression from North Korea to help consolidate his power.

Special prosecutor Cho Eun-seok told a briefing on Monday that his team had indicted Yoon, five former cabinet members, and 18 others on insurrection charges, following a six-month probe into his declaration of martial law last year.

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“To create justification for declaring martial law, they tried to lure North Korea into mounting an armed aggression, but failed as North Korea did not respond militarily,” Cho said.

Yoon plunged South Korea into a crisis when he declared martial law in December 2024, prompting protesters and lawmakers to swarm parliament to force a vote against the measure.

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The decree was quickly declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, and Yoon was subsequently impeached, removed from office, and jailed.

Martial law plotted for more than a year

Cho, one of three independent counsels appointed by South Korea’s current president, Lee Jae Myung, to investigate the martial law declaration, said Yoon and his supporters in the military had plotted since at least October 2023 to introduce the measure.

The plan involved installing collaborators in key military posts and removing a defence minister who opposed the scheme, Cho said.

The group even held dinner parties to build support for the plan among military leaders, he added.

Cho said Yoon, his Defence Minister Kim Yong Hyun, and Yeo In-hyung, commander of the military’s counterintelligence agency at the time, had directed military activities against North Korea since October 2024, seeking to provoke an aggressive response that would justify the declaration of martial law.

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Yoon was indicted last month for ordering drone flights carrying propaganda leaflets into the North to inflame tensions – prompting his successor, Lee, to say earlier this month that he was weighing an apology to Pyongyang.

‘Antistate forces’

Cho said the provocations did not draw the expected reaction from North Korea, most likely because Pyongyang was tied up in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.

But Yoon pressed ahead regardless, he said, branding his political opponents – including the liberal-controlled legislature and the then-leader of his own conservative People Power Party – as “anti-state forces” in a bid to justify his actions.

Under South Korean law, insurrection is punishable by life in prison or the death penalty.

Yoon, who has been in jail since July following a stint in custody earlier in the year, insists that his martial law declaration was intended to draw public support for his fight against the opposition Democratic Party, which was abusing its control of parliament to cripple the work of the government.

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“Yoon declared emergency martial law to monopolise and maintain power by taking control of the legislative and judiciary branches and eliminating his political opponents,” Cho said.

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