World
Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance
Rudimentary Ukrainian trench lines outside Avdiivka, in an area claimed by Russia.
Satellite image from Planet Labs, Feb. 26
By The New York Times
Russian forces continue to make small but rapid gains outside of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, attributable in part to dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and declining Western aid.
But there’s another reason the Kremlin’s troops are advancing in the area: poor Ukrainian defenses.
Sparse, rudimentary trench lines populate the area west of Avdiivka that Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a Times review of imagery by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain.
Avdiivka became the site of a fierce standoff over the last nine months, emerging as one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on Feb. 17, its first major gain since last May, the Ukrainian Army claimed it had secured defensive lines outside the city.
But Russian troops have captured three villages to the west of Avdiivka in the span of a week, and they are contesting at least one other.
Sources: Satellite image from Planet Labs; Russian-controlled territory (as of Feb. 29, 2024) from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. By The New York Times
Satellite imagery at the scale shown here is widely available. U.S. officials said privately that it was concerning that Ukraine did not shore up its defensive lines early or well enough, and that it may now face the consequences as Russian units advance slowly but steadily beyond Avdiivka.
British military intelligence said on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced to about four miles from the center of Avdiivka in the past two weeks, a small but unusually rapid advance compared with previous offensive operations.
Ukrainian commanders have had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka. The area has been under attack since 2014, and Ukraine has had a tenuous hold on it since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago.
But the Ukrainian defenses outside Avdiivka show rudimentary earthen fortifications, often with a connecting trench for infantry troops to reach firing positions closest to the enemy, but little else.
Stronger Russian Defenses
The lack of robust Ukrainian entrenchments in the area is especially glaring when compared with the formidable Russian defenses that thwarted Kyiv’s advances last summer during the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which ultimately failed.
Russian fortifications outside the southern village of Verbove, which Ukraine tried and failed to retake this fall, show a much different picture.
Sources: Satellite image from Planet Labs; Russian-controlled territory (as of Feb. 29, 2024) from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; Russian fortifications based on data from Brady Africk.
By The New York Times
Unlike the poorly fortified villages that Russian forces are trying to capture outside Avdiivka, Verbove has a concentric ring of fortifications. It starts with a trench wide enough to ensnare advancing tanks and armored vehicles, followed by a mesh of cement obstacles known as dragon’s teeth — also used to stop vehicles — and, finally, a sprawling trench for the infantry.
Satellite imagery from February shows the multilayered Russian defenses to the west of Verbove, with thousands of shell craters visible in the surrounding fields.
Satellite image from Planet Labs, Feb. 25
By The New York Times
‘A Very Costly Option’
There are many possible reasons for Ukraine’s apparent lack of defenses.
Ukrainian officials may have been too focused on offensive operations last year to dedicate the necessary resources to building the kind of multiple trenches and tank traps that Russian engineers built since late 2022 in the country’s south, the U.S. officials and military experts said.
“Who cared and who considered it as an option — because it’s a very costly option — the construction of defensive lines? No one,” said Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired Ukrainian Army colonel, noting that Ukraine had few resources to spare at the time.
There may have also been a psychological element at play, the U.S. officials said. If Ukrainian troops heavily mined certain areas to thwart Russian advances, it would be a tacit acknowledgement that they were unlikely to carry out offensive operations in the same area at a future date. They’d effectively be writing off that territory to the Russian military, the officials said.
While Moscow began building defensive lines in the south more than half a year before Kyiv’s counteroffensive, Ukraine appeared to have begun plans for new fortifications only three months ago, when government officials announced the creation of a working group to coordinate efforts between civilian and military authorities.
Responsibility for building the first line of defense would fall to the military units stationed in the area, the officials said, while the next defensive lines would be built by civilian authorities, with the help of private contractors. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, said that some 30 billion Ukrainian hryvnias, about $800 million, had been allocated for fortifications this year.
Areas in the eastern Donetsk region, where Avdiivka is, “will receive maximum attention,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a visit near the front line in late November, noting the “need to boost and accelerate the construction of structures.”
But Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, which analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said that “nothing significant has happened” since Mr. Zelensky’s visit.
Outside of Avdiivka, Mr. Paroinen added, “there are new positions being prepared, but they do not yet constitute a particularly formidable defensive line” and are not comparable in scale to Russia’s fortifications in the south.
The Ukrainian authorities have said they lack people able to carry out the construction work. In mid-January, local officials in the western Ivano-Frankivsk region said they were looking for 300 workers willing to help build fortifications in the Donetsk region, more than 500 miles to the east.
“We have a lack of engineering units. And even the units we have lack equipment,” Mr. Hrabskyi said. By comparison, he and Mr. Paroinen said, Russia had far more equipment, materials and experienced personnel when it built its defensive lines.
The absence of strong defensive lines outside of Avdiivka has been denounced in recent days by several Ukrainian journalists, in a rare show of public criticism of the military.
Delays in the construction of fortifications mean that Ukrainian troops may now be left to reinforce their defensive lines while under fire from the Russian Army, making the task exponentially more difficult.
Mr. Hrabskyi said Russia was currently preventing Ukrainian troops from shoring up their defenses by relentlessly bombarding them, including with powerful glide bombs carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives that can smash through even well-prepared fortifications.
“The quality of these defensive lines cannot be good enough to resist massive bulldozer tactics by the Russian forces,” Mr. Hrabskyi said.
Oleksandra Mykolyshyn contributed reporting.
World
Investors brace for a bigger backlash from Middle East war
World
Tel Aviv analyst shelters from 30 missile sirens in 48 hours, says Iran ‘won’t recover’
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The past 48 hours in Tel Aviv have been unlike anything seen before, a leading security analyst has said, as sirens blared amid missile threats following Operation Epic Fury and U.S.-Israeli strikes in Iran.
“We are facing a biblical event — nothing less,” Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital, speaking from his shelter in the city.
Like many Israelis, Michael said he had spent hours in reinforced rooms during the ongoing barrage, adding that he was “very experienced in this.”
“But this all requires time and determination, and I do hope that Trump will also have them both,” he said, speaking shortly after the president released a video message stating that the military operation would continue “until all of our objectives are achieved.”
Explosions from projectile interceptions by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system over Tel Aviv. (JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images)
“Trump is the only one who can make the change — and that change will impact the entire region and the international order for years to come,” Michael added.
As of Sunday, Tel Aviv remained under a state of emergency following Iranian missile attacks that caused casualties and widespread damage.
According to The Associated Press, Iranian missile and drone strikes have killed approximately 11 Israeli civilians and wounded dozens more in retaliation for the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.
Shrapnel from missile impacts damaged at least 40 buildings in Tel Aviv, and authorities reported at least one death in the area from falling debris.
The Philippine Embassy in Israel confirmed the death of a Filipino national after a missile strike hit Tel Aviv on Saturday.
TOMAHAWKS, B-2 STEALTH BOMBERS AND ATTACK DRONES POUND OVER 1,000 IRANIAN TARGETS IN 24-HOUR BLITZ
People take shelter as Iran launched missiles and drones towards Israel following the US-Israeli attacks. ( Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“We enter our shelter once the siren is heard and stay there until the Home Front Command announces that we can leave,” Michael said.
“Usually, it is about 20 to 30 minutes — unless there are further sirens during our stay. Since yesterday morning, it has happened around 30 times.”
Israel’s President Isaac Herzog also visited an impact site in Tel Aviv Sunday, delivering a message of resilience.
“The people of Israel and the people of Iran can live in peace. The region can live in peace. But what undermines peace time and again is terror instigated by this Iranian regime,” Herzog said.
EXILED IRANIAN CROWN PRINCE SAYS US STRIKES MARK ‘BEGINNING OF THE VERY END’ FOR REGIME
Israeli emergency service officer walks past building debris at the scene of a Iranian missile attack. (Ahmad GHARABLI / AFP via Getty Images)
Following the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and roughly 40 senior Iranian officials, Iran formed a provisional leadership council.
Iran named Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i to lead roles.
“The Supreme Leader did not complete the necessary groundwork regarding his own succession,” Michael added.
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“Pezeshkian will face very troubling challenges due to their heavy losses, severe disruptions to control and command systems, and the massive bombing and attacks across Iran, including Tehran,” he said.
“Even if this regime doesn’t collapse, it will never be able to reconstitute itself, recover or return to its previous position,” Michael added.
World
Israel FM says Europe too divided, slams Spanish PM
Israeli minister Gideon Sa’ar said Europe “does not have unified position” on what role it should play in Iran as European ministers sought to establish a joint approach Sunday.
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As Israel and the United States conducted a joint military strike on Iran, leading to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Europe was kept on the sidelines.
EU member states did not participate in the operation and, in some cases, they were not informed prior as it is customary among strategic allies.
Asked whether Israel sought to keep Europe on the margins, Sa’ar said internal divisions within EU member states had kept them out of critical exchanges of operational details, unlike the United States, which the minister described as his country’s greatest ally.
“In Europe, you have all kinds of approaches,” he told Euronews. “You have countries like the Czech Republic which is strongly supporting this operation and then you have Spain, which is standing with all the tyrants of the world.”
On Saturday, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez was among the most critical voices in Europe, suggesting the US-Israeli strikes on Iran risk plunging the region into total war.
“We reject the unilateral military action of the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” Sánchez said Saturday. The Spanish PM reiterated that message on Sunday.
“We urge for de-escalation and call to respect international law in all conflicts,” Sánchez added. “You can be against a heinous regime, like the Iranian regime, while also rejecting a military intervention that is unjustified, dangerous and outside of international law.”
Sa’aar said Israel considers the operation “fully justified” citing the right to self-defense from a regime that “has called for the destruction of Israel” and lashed at the Spanish prime minister for sending an “anti-Israeli, anti-American message.”
“Read the statement, they are standing with Iran!” he added.
When asked if any of his European counterparts had manifested an interest in joining the military operation or provide support on the ground, Sa’ar said he held multiple exchanges with European ministers over the weekend and suggested that “if others want to join, they will know have to convey the message.”
On Sunday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared to back regime change in Iran in line with Israel and the US, saying that the “risk of further escalation is real. This is why a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed” in comments on Sunday.
Sa’ar told Euronews said the strategic strikes and the elimination of Khamenei alongside top regime commanders could “create the conditions to weaken the regime enough to allow the Iranians to take their future into their own hands”.
“The future leadership of Iran should be determined by the Iranian people through free elections. Our only requirement is that whoever comes to power in Iran must not pursue the destruction of Israel,” he said.
Watch the full interview on Euronews from 8pm CET
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