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Russia's war on Ukraine unlikely to end in 2024; Congress plays pivotal role in direction conflict takes

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Russia's war on Ukraine unlikely to end in 2024; Congress plays pivotal role in direction conflict takes

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The direction of the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war will largely depend upon whether Congress can overcome hesitation about continued support as fatigue sets in, experts told Fox News Digital.

“America’s partnerships and alliances have never been more important than they are right now,” Kenneth J Braithwaite, former secretary of the Navy in the Trump administration and former ambassador to Norway, argued. 

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“Communism is alive and well, and we are up against it as Russia wages war against Europe and China seeks to exert more influence on the globe,” Braithwaite said. “That means Americans need to look outside our borders at how we can protect ourselves from these looming challenges, starting with one of our greatest force multipliers: Our partnerships and willingness to stand united against authoritarian threats to sovereignty.”

The second year of the Ukraine invasion proved a truly chaotic one, starting with Russia seeming to suffer catastrophic setbacks when the vital Wagner forces turned traitor and tried to march on Moscow. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his plane exploded, killing him and everyone aboard. 

BRET BAIER REFLECTS ON THE IMPORTANCE, COST OF WAR JOURNALISM AS RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE ENTERS ANOTHER YEAR

A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier travels along a road in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region March 3, 2023. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)

Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to rally and beat back Ukraine’s counteroffensive, much to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration. Putin grew so confident in his standing he refused to renew a U.N.-backed deal to secure access for grain shipments through the Black Sea, turning and attacking Ukraine. 

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Ukraine countered with an impressive naval effort that destroyed a dozen Russian ships in the Black Sea, pushing the fleet out of the western part of the sea and allowing Kyiv to establish its own grain corridor. 

As the dust settles following that roller coaster series of events, the third year of the war remains vague and dependent upon two major developments. Russia or Ukraine will both look to overcome war fatigue to gain a major advantage. And Ukraine’s chances rest largely on whether the U.S. Congress can overcome its hesitation about continued support for Ukraine without a clear end in sight. 

“For Ukraine, the shell hunger and the manpower shortages caused by, and in the former case caused in part by U.S. delays to aid, it’s a challenging year,” John Hardie, the deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)’s Russia Program, told Fox News Digital. 

BIDEN CALLED OUT FOR EMBOLDENING PUTIN AMID UKRAINE WAR, NAVALNY’S DEATH

“It was always going to be a tough year no matter what happened with U.S. aid,” Hardie stressed. “The congressional delays have just made it worse. So, I think for Ukraine early this year, they’ll just try to hold on by the teeth and try to make it through 2025, when — if we put the pieces in place this year — I think Ukraine could regain the advantage.

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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with House Speaker Mike Johnson to discuss additional aid from Congress (Courtesy Speaker Mike Johnson’s office)

“But it obviously depends on the right decisions being made and implemented this year.” 

Congress has failed to approve new aid packages that would supply Ukraine with much-needed defense equipment, munitions and air defense systems. A rare Sunday vote Feb. 11 in the Senate pushed forward an aid package for Ukraine along with Israel and other U.S. allies that would provide $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $8 billion for Kyiv and other assistance. 

Several holdouts in Congress, including senators JD Vance, R-Ohio.; Josh Hawley, R-Mo.; and Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., have spoken against continued support for Ukraine.

TRUMP SAID HE COULD END UKRAINE WAR NEARLY A YEAR AGO BUT STILL HASN’T LAID OUT SPECIFICS

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Vance has argued that he sees little sense in “unlimited, unaccounted-for aid to Ukraine without any goals in mind,” while Tuberville found it difficult to continue “paying Ukrainian farmers” after “we just punted the farm bill for American farmers [to] next year.”

Mark Green, President and CEO of the Wilson Center and former administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under President Trump, argued in favor of continuing to support Ukraine. He worried that “standing by and letting Putin’s forces win would embolden our rivals elsewhere.” 

An apartment building damaged in a Russian rocket attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, in the early hours of Jan. 17. (Kharkiv Regional Administration/AP)

“What scares Putin more than anything else is democratic success on his borders,” Green told Fox News Digital. “That’s why his invasion of Ukraine was not merely a military invasion: He demolished infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainians and weaponized food to punish anyone who stands with Ukraine.

“He wants to undermine Ukraine and the rules-based system we created in every way, which is why the U.S. needs a wide range of tools to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. The world is watching.”

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TOM COTTON MAKES CASE TO GIVE UKRAINE AID WHILE PROTECTING US BORDER

Without the aid, Ukraine will find it difficult to sustain its defense against Russia, Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview this week with Bret Baier, FOX News’ chief political anchor and executive editor of “Special Report.” 

Zelenskyy claimed that Russia has lost five troops for every one Ukrainian, and he highlighted that Russia’s only significant gain in the past year was to take the city of Avdiivka near Donetsk.

Looking into year three, FDD’s Hardie worried about a Ukraine that did not have the consistent U.S. support to overcome war fatigue while Russia faces issues that could prove catastrophic in the coming months. 

A woman walks among apartment buildings destroyed by Russian shelling on the outskirts of Odesa, Ukraine, July 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Shtekel)

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“I think both sides have a structural manpower problem where they can’t rotate forces, and troops become increasingly exhausted,” Hardie said. “Despite having both mobilized, they haven’t done so to the extent that they could actually take tens of thousands of forces or more off the front line and let them rest for months on end.

“Folks on both sides maybe get a week of vacation here or there, but it’s not a real force rotation where you can give someone a date and say, ‘This is your deployment window, and once you’re done, you’re done,’” he added. “So, that hasn’t affected morale.

PRESSURE GROWS ON JOHNSON TO MAKE MOVE ON UKRAINE AID AS RUSSIAN INVASION NEARS 2-YEAR MARK

“It’s sort of both sides are struggling with that. For Ukraine, the issue is mobilizing young men. And, for Russians, it’s just one example of political risk and the economic risk of another round of mobilization,” Hardie added. “So, I think those are the things to watch out for.”

Ukraine will seek to remedy that issue with changes to its mobilization laws, which have slowly progressed through rounds of revisions as lawmakers have resisted several measures, including increasing the age for the draft.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the Victory Day military parade marking the 78th anniversary of the end of World War II in Red Square in Moscow May 9, 2022. (Dmitry Astakhov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Putin issued a decree to expand his forces by around 170,000 men, bringing the troop total to 1.32 million, not including any confirmed death count, which would significantly diminish that total if verified. 

The Kremlin went to great pains to ensure that the public understands the expansion does not indicate an impending draft, which proved wildly unpopular when Putin rolled it out in 2022 after promising that he would not do so. 

GERMAN LAWMAKERS REJECT OPPOSITION CALL TO SEND TAURUS LONG-RANGE CRUISE MISSILES TO UKRAINE

Putin on Friday promised to continue improving Russia’s military power, including — once again — its nuclear capabilities, which he promised would remain in modernized and good order, according to Reuters. 

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“Incorporating our real combat experience, we will continue to strengthen the Armed Forces in every possible way, including ongoing re-equipping and modernization efforts,” Putin said.

“Today, the share of modern weapons and equipment in the strategic nuclear forces has already reached 95%, while the naval component of the ‘nuclear triad’ is at almost 100%,” he added.

Zelenskyy will continue to fight for support and to convince Congress to back Kyiv, even if things remain unclear in the immediate future as his country faces an existential crisis. 

“My message is, if they want to be very pragmatic, the price, we are asking now to support, this price is less than it will be in the future. … They will pay much more, much more. We just want to live, to survive,” Zelenskyy said during his interview with Baier. “We don’t have [an] alternative.”

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Paramount’s Jeff Shell Accused in Lawsuit of Leaking UFC, WBD Info

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Paramount’s Jeff Shell Accused in Lawsuit of Leaking UFC, WBD Info

A professional gambler and FBI informant has made good on his threat to take legal action against Paramount Skydance president Jeff Shell, as attorneys for Robert “R.J.” Cipriani have filed a 67-page complaint against the media exec in Los Angeles County Superior Court.

Among the allegations Cipriani has brought against Shell are breach of oral contract and fraud, charges related to a reformatted Spanish-language TV show that never got off the ground. The court document claims that Shell broke “a clear promise to help [the] plaintiff develop an English-language version” of Roku Channel’s four-part series Serenata de las Estrellas, which was co-produced by Cipriani in 2023.

Cipriani is suing Shell for $150 million in damages.

“This case arises from the oldest form of fraud: A powerful man took everything a less powerful man had to offer, promised to repay him, lied to him when he asked about it and then refused to compensate him at all,” the second paragraph of the complaint states.

Cipriani claims he had provided Shell with what amounts to 18 months of “sophisticated, high-value crisis communications services,” all of which went uncompensated. Shell allegedly agreed to develop Star Serenade, an adaptation of Serenata, in exchange for these services, but did not follow through.

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The legal document also includes allegations that Shell had disclosed sensitive information about the Paramount’s bid to acquire the Warner Bros. Discovery assets. Cipriani states that Shell in a Feb. 2 meeting had told him that PSKY “intended to enhance and ‘sweeten’ its pending hostile tender offer … to $30 per share in cash,” information that was not made public until Feb. 10. (Cipriani claimed that Shell during that same meeting referred to WBD CEO David Zaslav as a “suck-up.”)

Cipriani went on to state that Shell told him, “We’re paying way too much for Warner Bros. If we could just wait another year, we could get it a whole lot cheaper.”

Paramount and WBD formally entered a $111 billion merger agreement on Feb. 27. Should the deal be met with regulatory approval, the combined CBS Sports/TNT Sports portfolio will bring the rights to the NFL, NHL, MLB, college football, the UFC, the Masters and March Madness under one roof. Shell did not participate in the briefing Paramount convened with analysts the following Monday.

A few pages deeper into the complaint, Cipriani stated he had filed a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission related to disclosures Shell had made to him regarding the then-pending $7.7 billion Paramount-UFC deal. Cipriani claims Shell told him about the pact 26 days before it went public. Shell is said to have shared details of the negotiations with Cipriani despite the fact that “even UFC president Dana White did not yet know of the transaction.” (Oddly enough, Cipriani’s complaint alleges that Shell characterized the talks as “very hush hush” while he was spilling the beans.)

The legal complaint includes a screen shot of what appears to be a WhatsApp conversation between Cipriani and Shell, in which the latter states, “We are buying ALL of the UFC rights for the next 7 years for Paramount.”

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When a draft of Cipriani’s complaint began circulating last month, an attorney representing Shell said the document was “riddled with clear errors of fact and law.” With the complaint now filed, Shell will have to opportunity to formally rebut Cipriani.

Shell is currently the subject of an internal Paramount investigation related to Cipriani’s claims and is expected to remain on the sidelines until the inquiry is complete. That said, no official action has been taken, and he remains on the job as of Tuesday afternoon.

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Cuban activist to Trump: ‘Make Cuba great again’ by ending communist rule

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Cuban activist to Trump: ‘Make Cuba great again’ by ending communist rule

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As Cuba faces rolling blackouts, food shortages and renewed protests, Cuban human rights activist Rosa María Payá is warning in an interview to Fox News Digital that the island’s deepening crisis cannot be solved with economic reforms alone and is urging the United States to maintain pressure on the communist government in Havana.

The recent outages and shortages are tied to Cuba’s worsening energy and economic crisis. 

A recent nationwide blackout was triggered by a failure at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant, the island’s largest power station, cutting electricity across much of the country, according to Reuters. The crisis has been compounded by fuel shortages after the Trump administration moved to curtail oil shipments to the island, particularly from Venezuela — one of Cuba’s main suppliers. 

Cuban officials say U.S. sanctions have worsened the country’s economic difficulties, while repeated power plant failures and an aging electrical grid have left millions facing prolonged blackouts that have fueled growing public frustration and protests.

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RUSSIA WARNS AGAINST ‘PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS’ AROUND CUBA AFTER 4 KILLED ONBOARD US-REGISTERED SPEEDBOAT

The state-run company blamed U.S. sanctions in an official statement, saying, “Without ending the financial blockade, there can be no permanent energy stability,” according to CubaHeadlines.

Rosa Maria Paya, daughter of late Cuban dissident Oswaldo Paya, is seen during a tribute to her father’s memory in Santiago, Chile, April 17, 2017.  (Ivan Alvarado/Reuters)

The Trump administration has increased pressure on Cuba in recent months, tightening sanctions and targeting oil shipments that help power the island’s energy system. The measures are part of a broader effort to weaken the Cuban government and support democratic change on the island. 

“To President Trump, it’s important for you to know that the Cuban people are grateful for what this administration is doing and that we are ready, and we want to make Cuba great again,” Payá said, addressing him directly. “And that means an end to the communist dictatorship, not just a new economy, but a new republic.” 

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Her appeal comes as Cuba has re-emerged in Washington’s foreign policy discussions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and one of the most prominent Cuban–American voices in U.S. politics, long has advocated a tougher stance toward Havana and stronger support for pro-democracy movements on the island. 

The Trump administration recently has increased pressure on the Cuban government, including measures targeting oil shipments that help sustain the island’s struggling energy sector. 

Trump praised Rubio during a press conference Tuesday and suggested he could play a central role in any potential negotiations with Havana.

“Marco Rubio is doing a great job,” Trump said. “I think he’s going to go down as the greatest secretary of state in history. They trust Marco.”

“We want to work with President Trump and with Secretary Rubio, the opposition is united,” Payá said. “We have a plan. It’s called the Freedom Accord,” she added, referring to a democratic transition framework promoted by opposition groups in Cuba. “We are ready to lead this process. The moment is now, Mr. President.”

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Opposition groups have developed the Freedom Accord, a political roadmap for democratic change, which she says would guide a transition away from the current system in Cuba. 

Payá, 37, who escaped the country 13 years ago, has spent the past decade advocating internationally for democratic change in Cuba. 

She is the daughter of prominent dissident Oswaldo Payá, founder of the Christian Liberation Movement and architect of the Varela Project, a petition campaign in the early 2000s that gathered more than 25,000 signatures demanding free elections and civil liberties in Cuba.

Her father died in 2012 alongside fellow activist Harold Cepero in what Payá describes as an assassination by the Cuban regime. Cuban authorities said the men were killed in a car crash in eastern Cuba, but the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights later concluded there were “serious indications” that Cuban state agents were involved in the deaths.

“After the Cuban regime assassinated my father … I have been trying to follow his legacy together with many, many other Cubans on the island and in exile that today believe that we have a real chance and freedom,” she said, describing a movement that today includes activists both on the island and in exile.

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FLORIDA LAUNCHES PROBE AFTER CUBA KILLS 4 ABOARD US-FLAGGED SPEEDBOAT NEAR KEYS

Members of the “Ladies in White” opposition group march beside the funeral procession of Oswaldo Paya, one of Cuba’s best-known dissidents, in Havana, July 24, 2012.  (Reuters)

The crisis inside Cuba has reached a level where basic survival has become a daily struggle for many families, according to Payá.  

“The situation today is that mothers don’t know if they are going to be able to feed their child tonight,” she said. “Most of the island has been suffering blackouts that last for days on many occasions.”The island has experienced waves of unrest in recent years driven by economic collapse and political repression. 

The largest demonstrations against the regime erupted on July 11, 2021, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets across the island chanting “freedom” in the biggest protests since the 1959 revolution.

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Authorities responded with mass arrests and prison sentences for many demonstrators. 

For Payá, those protests reflected something deeper than economic frustration.

“The Cuban people have been fighting for freedom for the last 67 years,” she said. “We are demanding political freedom, not just a new economy.”

Despite comparisons between Cuba’s crisis and the political turmoil in Venezuela, Payá argues the situation in Cuba is fundamentally different. 

“Cuba’s situation is quite different,” she said. “This is the longest running communist dictatorship in the Western hemisphere.” 

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MARCO RUBIO EMERGES AS KEY TRUMP POWER PLAYER AFTER VENEZUELA OPERATION

Cuban exiles block the Palmetto Expressway at Coral Way in support of protesters in Cuba in 2021 in Miami.  (Pedro Portal/Miami Herald via AP)

While she emphasized that Cubans themselves must ultimately drive political change, Payá said international pressure remains essential because of the regime’s ability to repress dissent.

Her appeal comes as Cuba has re-emerged in Washington’s foreign policy discussions.

Payá said the Cuban opposition hopes the United States will continue supporting democratic change on the island.

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Anabel Oliva, 20, speaks outside the University of Havana during a protest against disruptions in classes due to energy and internet shortages, amid U.S. sanctions and an oil blockade that have deepened the country’s crisis, in Havana, Cuba, March 9, 2026.  (Norlys Perez/Reuters)

“I believe that President Trump knows very well, better than anyone, the difference between a real deal and a better one,” she said. “He understands that this dictatorship must end.”

“To end the crisis,” she added, “we need to end the regime.”

Fox News Digital reached out to the White House and Rubio for comment and has not yet received a reply. 

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Reuters contributed to this report.

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Israeli air strike targets building in south Lebanon

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Israeli air strike targets building in south Lebanon

An Israeli air strike has heavily damaged a building in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district.

An Israeli air strike has heavily damaged a building in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district as Israeli forces continue to attack across the area. The army says it is targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure and has warned residents south of the Litani river to leave.

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