A positive outcome is all but guaranteed when the European Parliament votes on whether to approve President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen’s new team of commissioners in its entirety, but there are good reasons to monitor Wednesday’s vote in the Strasbourg closely.

Parliament will vote to approve the incoming Commission, having previously endorsed all 26 commissioners through a backroom deal among centrist groups: the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe.

The new Commission requires an absolute majority of votes cast to be approved and take office in December. While this outcome seems likely, who votes for and against it remains somewhat uncertain. This is significant because it could shape and influence the parliamentary majority for the entire legislative term.

A twist in the pro-EU majority?

In July, Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected with 401 votes. At that time, the vote was conducted by secret ballot, though groups had publicly declared their intentions. Beyond the three centrist groups, the Greens/EFA group also supported von der Leyen. The Left group and all right-wing political forces voted against or abstained, with a few exceptions among the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

The result suggested a majority in the European Parliament resembling that of the previous legislature: centrist pro-EU groups, with close cooperation from the Greens.

However, the situation now could be very different. Firstly, the new Commission lineup includes Raffaele Fitto, a vice president from the right-wing Brothers of Italy party.

While von der Leyen has emphasized collaboration with “pro-EU”, “pro-Ukraine”, and “pro-rule of law” political forces, the chair of her EPP group in Parliament, Manfred Weber, has hinted at a broader coalition. He envisaged a “broad centre in the European Parliament, from the Greens to ECR.”

“My majority, if I may say so, is becoming real. And that makes me happy because we need broader stability in the European Parliament,” Weber said during a press conference in Strasbourg on Tuesday.

Such a majority could shift EU policy significantly rightward on issues such as migration and the environment. However, it also remains to be seen how von der Leyen’s grand centrist alliance holds in the voting tomorrow.

Defections and Divisions

Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (PP) has announced it will not support the Commission due to the inclusion of Spanish Vice President Teresa Ribera, a member of its rival centre-left PSOE (S&D) party, in the lineup, according to the Spanish press agency EFE. The PP has not clarified whether its MEPs will vote against or abstain.

Within the Socialists, several MEPs are also dissatisfied with the new Commission’s composition. Dutch and Belgian members plan to vote against it, while other delegations may abstain, according to sources from the group. French Socialists have already declared their opposition. “We do not accept a far-right executive vice president such as Raffaele Fitto. I will vote against his inclusion in this Commission,” MEP Claire Fita told Euronews.

The deepest divisions, however, are among the Greens/EFA group on the left and the Conservatives on the right.

The Greens claim to be part of a “four-group majority” in the European Parliament and are ready to “work constructively” while opposing the far right. However, the group itself is split, as revealed during a meeting on Monday evening. Only a slim majority, led by German MEPs, supports the Commission, while French, Austrian, and Italian members plan to vote against it, according to multiple sources.

On the right, some members of the ECR group are eager to join the new majority, while others remain firmly opposed.

The Brothers of Italy, the largest delegation in the group, will vote in favour, as the new Commission includes one of its members as vice president. Other ECR delegations are expected to follow suit, according to group sources.

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However, Polish and French members will oppose the Commission, including prominent French MEP Marion Maréchal, niece of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who has criticised the designated commissioners. “Beyond the lack of competence of [French commissioner] Stéphane Séjourné, we face a commissioner for energy transition known for her anti-nuclear stance, a commissioner for demography who views immigration as a solution to declining birthrates, and a commissioner for equality who champions a pro-LGBTIQ+ agenda,” she told Euronews.

As the vote will be cast openly, the new commissioners will see which MEPs they can rely on. Two thresholds will be critical for their success: the 401 votes von der Leyen secured in July and the 461 that approved the previous Commission in November 2019.

MEXICO CITY (AP) — President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested Tuesday that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% import duties on Mexican goods if the country doesn’t stop the flow of drugs and migrants across the border.

Sheinbaum said she was willing to engage in talks on the issues, but said drugs were a U.S. problem.

“One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said, referring to U.S. automakers that have plants on both sides of the border.

She said Tuesday that Mexico had done a lot to stem the flow of migrants, noting “caravans of migrants no longer reach the border.”

She also said Mexico had worked to stem the flow of drugs like the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl, despite an influx of weapons smuggled in from the United States. She said the flow of drugs “is a problem of public health and consumption in your country’s society.”

Sheinbaum also criticized U.S. spending on weapons, saying the money should instead be spent regionally to address the problem of migration. “If a percentage of what the United States spends on war were dedicated to peace and development, that would address the underlying causes of migration,” she said.

Sheinbaum’s bristly response suggests that Trump faces a much different Mexican president than he did in his first term.

Back in late 2018, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a charismatic, old-school politician who developed a chummy relationship with Trump. The two were eventually able to strike a bargain in which Mexico helped keep migrants away from the border — and received other countries’ deported migrants — and Trump backed down on the threats.

But Sheinbaum, who took office Oct. 1, is a stern leftist ideologue trained in radical student protest movements, and appears less willing to pacify or mollify Trump.

However, it’s not clear how serious Trump’s threat is. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement forbids just imposing tariffs on other member countries. And it’s not clear whether the economy could even tolerate sudden levies on imports: Auto plants on both sides of the border rely on each other for parts and components, and some production lines could screech to a halt.

“It is unacceptable and would cause inflation and job losses in Mexico and the United States,” Sheinbaum said, while offering to talk about the issues.

“Dialogue is the best path to achieve understanding, peace and prosperity for our two countries,” Sheinbaum said. “I hope our teams can meet soon.”

Late Monday, Trump said he would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the country from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, as one of his first executive orders.

The tariffs, if implemented, could dramatically raise prices for American consumers on everything from gas to automobiles to agricultural products. The U.S. is the largest importer of goods in the world, with Mexico, China and Canada its top three suppliers, according to the most recent U.S. Census data.

Trump made the threats Monday in a pair of posts on his Truth Social site in which he railed against an influx of illegal migrants, even though apprehensions at the southern border have been hovering near four-year lows.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” he wrote, complaining that “thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before,” even though violent crime is down from pandemic highs.

He said the new tariffs would remain in place “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”

“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power,” he went on, “and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

• Six people were killed as supporters of imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan clashed with security forces in Islamabad on Tuesday.
• Thousands of security personnel have been deployed to central Islamabad to control the protests.
• More than 4,000 Khan supporters have been arrested, with the government also suspending mobile and internet services, blocking major travel routes and banning rallies to suppress the unrest.

Supporters seeking the release of imprisoned Pakistani former Prime Minister Imran Khan broke through a ring of shipping containers blocking off the capital on Tuesday, and battled security forces despite a government threat to respond with gunfire. Six people have died in the violence.

Thousands of security forces have poured into central Islamabad in an attempt to quell protests in support of Khan that have gripped the capital and its surrounding areas since Sunday. The popular politician has been in jail for over a year and faces more than 150 criminal cases that his party says are politically motivated.

Authorities say only courts can order the release of Khan, who was ousted in 2022 through a no-confidence vote in Parliament. He has been imprisoned since his first conviction in a graft case, in August 2023.

FORMER PAKISTANI PRIME MINISTER IMRAN KHAN SENTENCED TO 10 YEARS IN PRISON IN CIPHER CASE

On Tuesday, Pakistan’s army took control of D-Chowk, a large square in downtown Islamabad’s Red Zone, which houses key government buildings and is where visiting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is staying. Paramilitary rangers and police were also out in force and some fired warning shots into the air.

Still, Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who is leading the protests, made slow progress toward the square in a heavily guarded convoy, surrounded by well-wishers.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi threatened that security forces would respond with live fire if protesters fired weapons at them.

“We have now allowed police to take any decision according to the situation,” Naqvi said later while visiting the square.

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Protester Shahzor Ali said people were on the streets because Khan had called for them to be there. “We will stay here until Khan is among us. He will decide what to do next,” Ali said.

“If they again fire bullets, the bullet will be responded with the bullet,” he said.

Protester Fareeda Bibi, who is not related to Khan’s wife, said people have suffered greatly for the last two years.

“We have really suffered for the last two years, whether it is economically, politically or socially. We have been ruined. I have not seen such a Pakistan in my life,” she said.

Paramilitary soldiers fire tear gas shells to disperse supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan during clashes in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Irtisham Ahmed)

Police so far have used tear gas in an attempt to disperse the crowds. The dead include four members of the security services and one civilian who were killed when a vehicle rammed them on a street overnight into Tuesday. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denounced the attack, saying an “anarchist group” was deliberately targeting law enforcement personnel. There was no claim of responsibility for the ramming. A police officer died separately.

Scores of people have also been injured, including journalists who were attacked by demonstrators. Dozens of Khan supporters beat a videographer covering the protest for The Associated Press and took his camera. He sustained head injuries and was treated in a hospital.

VISITATION PRIVILEGES REVOKED FOR IMPRISONED EX-PAKISTANI PM IMRAN KHAN AFTER REPORTS OF POSSIBLE ATTACK

Pakistani media have mostly stopped filming and photographing the rally, instead focusing on the security measures and the city’s deserted streets.

By Tuesday afternoon, fresh waves of protesters made their way unopposed to their final destination in the Red Zone. Most demonstrators had the flag of Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, around their shoulders or wore its tricolors on accessories.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is pictured at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on Oct. 9, 2019, in Beijing, China.  (Parker Song-Pool/Getty Images)

Naqvi said Khan’s party rejected a government offer to rally on the outskirts of the city.

Information Minister Atta Tarar warned there would be a severe government reaction to the violence.

He said the government did not want Bushra Bibi to achieve her goal of freeing Khan. “She wants bodies falling to the ground. She wants bloodshed,” he said.

In a bid to foil the unrest, police have arrested more than 4,000 Khan supporters since Friday and suspended mobile and internet services in some parts of the country and messaging platforms were also experiencing severe disruption in the capital.

Khan’s party relies heavily on social media to demand Khan’s release and uses messaging platforms such as WhatsApp to share information, including details of events. The X platform, which is banned in Pakistan, is no longer accessible, even with a VPN.

On Thursday, a court prohibited rallies in the capital and Naqvi said anyone violating the ban would be arrested. Travel between Islamabad and other cities has become nearly impossible because of shipping containers blocking the roads. All educational institutions remain closed.