On Sunday, Minsk and Moscow will mark a day of unity, remembering when in 1996, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and then-Russian president Boris Yeltsin signed a treaty aimed toward forming a Union State of the 2 Slavic neighbours.

Some proposals, like a shared forex, by no means took off, however the Union State grew to become the idea for a steadily deepening cooperation.

Whereas Belarus additionally appeared all for relationships with the West, that modified in 2020, when Moscow got here to Lukashenko’s rescue.

The moustachioed chief had confronted enormous anti-government avenue protests. Russia mentioned it was able to ship in troops, to help the crackdown on dissent. Ultimately, no Russian troops have been concerned, however the supply went a way in quelling the rebellion.

Over the past 12 months, as Russia has pummelled Ukraine, Belarus has stood loyally by Russia’s aspect and lately agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons – an indication of stronger ties.

Landlocked and sandwiched between Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland, Belarus grew to become impartial with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Three years later, Alexander Lukashenko, a once-radical and reforming Soviet deputy, got here to energy.

His tenure has arguably been a throwback to the Soviet previous, with Belarus sustaining a largely state-run, centralised financial system and a tightly managed society.

Lengthy nicknamed “Europe’s final dictator”, Lukashenko has led the nation uninterrupted for nearly 30 years.

For a lot of his time in workplace, he has tried to keep up sovereignty and by extension, his personal energy. However lately, and particularly because the battle in Ukraine, he has been rising nearer to Russia.

“Lukashenko has constructed his regime by worry and repression towards dissenters, steadily depriving residents of freedom of speech and proper to precise political opinion,” Belarusian researcher Alesia Rudnik informed Al Jazeera.

“Nevertheless, the most important wave of repression began following the large-scale protests in 2020.”

Mass protests towards Lukashenko

Three years in the past, mass protests erupted after Lukashenko declared himself the victor within the election, successful greater than 80 p.c of the favored vote – a majority the opposition thought was unlikely.

There have been widespread experiences of torture as safety forces suppressed the rallies.

The 68-year-old has not all the time seen eye-to-eye with Moscow, nevertheless, and throughout the protests, even accused Russia of sending mercenaries to overthrow him.

However spurned by Europe over allegations of human rights abuses and emboldened by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ethical help, Lukashenko moved nearer to the Kremlin.

“Previous to the protests in 2020, Lukashenko and his regime have been making an attempt to keep up the steadiness between Russia and the West,” Rudnik continued. “The Western window has been fully shut for now and the stance in direction of Russia has shifted into the path of trying on the [Russian] regime because the guarantor of Lukashenko’s stability.”

Though Minsk’s international coverage typically follows Moscow’s lead, Lukashenko had tried to maintain his choices open with the West, as effectively.

He had invited Western observers to navy workout routines held with Russia and rolled out visa-free journey for Western residents.

In 2019, he even eyed nearer ties with NATO.

However in 2021, after the protests, he firmly threw his lot in with the Kremlin by claiming that Crimea, the peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, was Russia’s territory.

“Lukashenko signed an settlement with Russian President Boris Yeltsin to create a political and financial union between the 2 international locations,” Tatsiana Kulakevich, a Belarusian educational on the College of South Florida, informed Al Jazeera.

“The settlement was by no means totally applied. Nevertheless, Belarus’s integration with Russia has deepened significantly since 2020, when Russian President Vladimir Putin promised help to assist the cruel crackdown on large-scale election protests in Belarus. Lukashenko’s acceptance of Russian help, in addition to fixed lobbying by Belarusian diaspora and [opposition leader] Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for the West’s help towards Lukashenko, marked a turning level in his makes an attempt to steadiness between East and West.”

Evolution of a union state

The Union State venture, even when not realised in full, had a couple of perks.

In 2014, a customs union meant Belarusian smugglers may assist Russia evade Western sanctions by importing items reminiscent of Italian cheese and reshipping them to Russia as “Belarusian parmesan”, with no checks.

After the anti-Lukashenko protests, the Union State course of accelerated.

Most essential was navy cooperation. Within the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine final 12 months, tens of hundreds of Russian troops have been deployed to Belarus below the guise of “coaching workout routines”.

Like NATO, since 2010, Russia’s official navy doctrine considers an assault on one member of the Union State an assault on them each, and guarantees to reply accordingly.

Whereas Minsk has not actively taken half within the invasion, it was a staging floor for the battle and there have been experiences of Russian missiles fired from Belarusian territory and wounded troopers being handled in Belarusian hospitals.

In response, Belarus has been hit with sanctions, slicing it off from the European financial system.

Nonetheless, Lukashenko has mentioned Belarusian troopers is not going to be part of the fray.

“Belarus can not spare the troops,” Kulakevich mentioned. “A majority of the troops who serve within the Belarus military are conscripts doing obligatory navy service.

“Additionally, any Belarusian troops despatched to Ukraine would depend on the Russian command infrastructure [and] shedding management is just not in Lukashenko’s pursuits.”

A small cadre of extremely skilled, particular forces troops are unlikely to be deployed to Ukraine both, Kulakevich added, since Lukashenko wants them to suppress home unrest.

Nonetheless, there are different methods Belarus can show a helpful ally to Russia.

In February, after a referendum broadly suspected to be rigged, Belarus introduced it was scrapping its dedication to staying nuclear-free, paving the best way for Russian atomic armaments to be stationed there.

This month, Putin introduced he would station nuclear warheads in Belarus, responding to the UK sending depleted uranium rounds to Ukraine.

“After all, Russia has an enormous affect on the Belarusian authorities and society,” mentioned Danila Lavretski, basic secretary of the opposition motion Youth Bloc Belarus.

“Political integration inside the framework of the so-called ‘Union State’ instantly contradicts the Belarusian structure and, along with [other] elements, could result in a state of affairs the place the independence of Belarus will stay solely nominal.”

In response to him, Belarus lacks the type of nationalism that has outlined a lot of Ukraine’s current historical past.

However lately, the demand for “Belarusian nationalism” has grown in society, he informed Al Jazeera.

“The Lukashenko regime not solely systematically destroyed democratic establishments, but additionally contributed to the decline of Belarusian self-identity. Since 1994, the variety of Belarusian-language colleges has decreased, the Russian language has been adopted because the second state language, and the earlier state image, the white-and-red flag, was changed by the Soviet one and as an alternative grew to become an emblem of the opposition.”

As in Russia, a lot of Belarusians additionally protested towards the battle in Ukraine. There have been 800 arrests on the evening of February 27 final 12 months, at rallies in solidarity with Ukraine.

“For the Belarusian opposition, the start of the battle grew to become a possibility to mobilise each their supporters and ‘wavering’ residents,” mentioned Lavretski. “There’s a consensus within the Belarusian society rejecting the battle as a phenomenon usually, and much more so a battle with the participation of the Belarusian individuals.”

Though most Belarusians nonetheless tended to suppose positively in direction of Russia, society has develop into extra polarised; many view Lukashenko as little greater than Putin’s puppet.

“Concentrating on his personal inhabitants after 2020, Lukashenko shot himself within the foot and has not leverage on Putin as he stays his solely shut and powerful political ally,” mentioned Rudnik.