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Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025

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Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Rental homes will remain an attractive option next year to would-be homebuyers sidelined by high mortgage rates and rising home prices, analysts say.

American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes are two big real estate investment trusts poised to benefit from the trend, say analysts at Mizuho Securities USA and Raymond James & Associates.

Their outlooks boil down to a simple thesis: Many Americans will continue to have a difficult time finding a single-family home that they can afford to buy, which will make renting a house an attractive alternative.

It starts with mortgage rates. While the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September, it’s been mostly rising since then, echoing moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

The yield, which has hovered around 4.4% this week, surged after the presidential election, reflecting expectations among investors that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies may widen the federal deficit and crank up inflation.

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Analysts at Raymond James and Associates say they see mortgage rates remaining “higher for longer,” given the outcome of the election. Last week, they reiterated their “Outperform” ratings on American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes, noting “we are increasingly confident in the longer-term outlook for single-family rental fundamentals and the industry’s growth prospects.”

They also believe the two companies will continue to benefit from “outsized demographic demand for suburban homes,” and the monthly payment gap between renting and owning a home, which they estimate can be as much as 30% less to rent.

Analysts at Mizuho also expect that homeownership affordability hurdles will maintain “a supportive backdrop” and stoke demand for rental houses, helping American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes to maintain their tenant retention rates.

The companies are averaging higher new and renewal tenant lease rates when compared to several of the largest U.S. apartment owners, including AvalonBay, Equity Residential and Camden Property Trust, according to Mizuho. It has an “Outperform” rating on American Homes 4 Rent and a “Neutral” rating on Invitation Homes.

Shares in Invitation Homes are down 1.2% so far this year, while American Homes 4 Rent is up 4.4%. That’s well below the S&P 500’s 24% gain in the same period.

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While individual homeowners and mom-and-pop investors still account for the vast majority of single-family rental homes, homebuilders have stepped up construction of new houses planned for rental communities.

In the third quarter, builders broke ground on about 24,000 single-family homes slated to become rentals. That’s up from 17,000 a year earlier. In the second quarter, single-family rental starts climbed to 25,000, the highest quarterly total going back to at least 1990, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data by the National Association of Home Builders.

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Iran War Live Updates: Trump’s Deadline Draws Closer With No Sign of Diplomatic Breakthrough

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Israel and Iran traded fresh attacks on Tuesday after President Trump said a cease-fire proposal was “not good enough.” Mr. Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern.

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CENTCOM commander directed strike against an IRGC headquarters in underground facility: sources

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CENTCOM commander directed strike against an IRGC headquarters in underground facility: sources

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High-level sources have informed Fox News that during rescue efforts in Iran after a U.S. fighter jet was shot down, the commander of U.S. Central Command directed an attack against an underground Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters.

While the airman rescue was going on, CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper directed a strike on an IRGC headquarters in an underground facility near Tehran — it was done with B2 bombers, using Massive Ordnance Penetrators, the same weapon used last year in Operation Midnight Hammer, according to the sources. Fox News is told the headquarters was obliterated.

U.S. military B1 bombers (BONES) dropped a hundred 2,000-pound bombs during the rescue operations to keep Iranians away from the rescue area during the operation, according to a senior U.S. defense official.

A senior military source told Fox News, “we delivered the heat” on the IRGC.

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RESCUE EXPERT SAYS MOST DANGEROUS MOMENT COMES AFTER ‘JACKPOT’ CALL IN RECOVERY BEHIND ENEMY LINES

Adm. Brad” Cooper, commander of Central Command, speaks during a joint press conference with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at CENTCOM headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, on March 5, 2026. (Octavio Jones/AFP via Getty Images)

CENTCOM noted in a press release that U.S. forces had rescued two service members after their F-15E was downed.

Fox News was told that the operation took place between the two rescues: Cooper ordered the B2s to fly round trip from Whiteman Air Force Base in the U.S. because they received time-sensitive intelligence about the location of a large number of IRGC commanders inside this underground bunker in Tehran, and the Massive Ordnance Penetrators, bunker buster bombs, were dropped by the B2 warplanes.

AIRMAN RESCUE SHOWS US CAN PENETRATE ENEMY TERRITORY ‘ANYWHERE’ IN IRAN, FORMER PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS

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Wreckage is seen from what Iranian authorities say is a U.S. military helicopter that crashed during a mission to rescue the missing American pilot of an F-15E that was downed, in a handout image provided on April 5, 2026, in an unspecified location in Iran. (Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance/Handout via Getty Images)

Following the rescues, President Donald Trump declared in a Truth Social post, “We have rescued the seriously wounded, and really brave, F-15 Crew Member/Officer, from deep inside the mountains of Iran. The Iranian Military was looking hard, in big numbers, and getting close. He is a highly respected Colonel. This type of raid is seldom attempted because of the danger to ‘man and equipment.’ It just doesn’t happen!” 

RETIRED F-16 PILOT SAYS RESCUED US AIRMAN’S SURVIVAL IN IRAN HIGHLIGHTS INTENSE EVASION TRAINING

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“The second raid came after the first one, where we rescued the pilot in broad daylight, also unusual, spending seven hours over Iran. An AMAZING show of bravery and talent by all!” he said.

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Between Budapest and Brussels: Péter Magyar’s political tightrope

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The leader of Hungary’s opposition Tisza party has prioritised domestic campaigning over his parliamentary duties, at times defying his European Parliament group to appeal to voters while distancing himself from EU figures like Ursula von der Leyen.

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