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Preventing This War

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Preventing This War

Was there any approach to forestall the horrific struggle in Ukraine? Latest historical past presents at the very least a partial reply, and it’s one which can also be related to the way forward for world stability.

However let’s begin with the previous: In the summertime of 1990, the autocratic chief of a rustic with a robust navy determined to take over a weaker neighbor. If the armed battle had remained between solely these two nations, the invaders would have simply received.

As an alternative, a world navy coalition, led by the USA, rapidly got here collectively. Its leaders declared that the invasion wouldn’t be allowed to face, as a result of one nation couldn’t merely annex one other. Inside months, the invaders had been defeated.

There are actually variations between Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1990 and Vladimir Putin’s Russia in 2022. A few of these variations make Russia tougher to confront, particularly its nuclear arsenal. However different variations recommend that Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine ought to have been extra possible than Hussein’s takeover of Kuwait to encourage a world navy coalition.

For one factor, the Iraqi invasion was shockingly swift. It started in the midst of the night time, and Iraq managed Kuwait inside 48 hours. Putin’s invasion, against this, required months of buildup, precisely analyzed by U.S. intelligence businesses, giving the world sufficient discover at the very least to attempt to forestall it. Second, Kuwait is a small authoritarian emirate, representing few grand political beliefs, in a war-torn area. Ukraine is a democracy of greater than 40 million folks, on what was a largely peaceable continent dwelling to main democracies.

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These components make it doable to ascertain a really totally different sequence of occasions over the previous few weeks. As soon as Putin’s mobilization inside Russia started, a Western coalition may have despatched troops to Ukraine. “He who needs peace should put together for struggle,” Evelyn Farkas, a Pentagon official within the Obama administration, wrote in January, calling for a 1990-style coalition. “Solely a steadiness of navy energy — a deterrent power and the political will to match — can maintain struggle at bay.”

“Putin is somebody who responds to brute power,” Ian Brzezinski of the Atlantic Council advised The Occasions earlier than the invasion.

Sure, such a showdown would have carried large dangers. Confronting a nuclear energy isn’t simple. However there’s a lengthy historical past of efficiently doing so, courting to the Chilly Struggle. (In any other case, any nation with a nuclear weapon may merely annex any nation with out one.) And naturally the dearth of a navy response additionally carried large dangers — which have now was horrible prices.

1000’s of Ukrainians and Russians have died. Greater than two million Ukrainians have fled their houses. Cities are being destroyed and nuclear vegetation attacked.

Given all of this, it’s putting that Western allies gave so little consideration to a bolder try and cease Putin. They merely pleaded with him to not invade and threatened comparatively modest financial sanctions (which have since turn into extra aggressive). He scoffed at them.

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The meekness of the preliminary Western response stems from two latest realities: the European Union’s wishful pacifism and the U.S.’s failed belligerence. Collectively, they created an influence vacuum that Putin exploited.

If that vacuum stays — if right now’s democracies are unable to mount coalitions just like the one which defeated Hussein — future wars could turn into extra possible.

The American a part of this story might be acquainted to many readers. The U.S. has spent a lot of the previous 20 years combating wars it didn’t must battle. It continued a struggle in Afghanistan lengthy after Osama bin Laden was gone and invaded Iraq lengthy after Hussein was contained. Each choices was tragic failures that “undermined the world’s confidence in American intentions and competence,” as my colleague Damien Cave has written.

The 2 wars additionally affected U.S. politics. Many Individuals grew cautious of international intervention. Public opinion has turn into so dovish that not one outstanding U.S. politician referred to as for defending Ukraine with troops. It was a uncommon instance of bipartisan consensus in a polarized nation.

This new isolationism in all probability received’t disappear anytime quickly. For each higher and worse, the U.S. is unlikely to be the world’s police officer within the coming a long time.

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The apparent candidate to share the burden of democratic management is Western Europe. The area is each giant sufficient and wealthy sufficient, as Substack’s Matthew Yglesias has famous. But it has up to now refused to take action. The E.U.’s financial output is much like that of each the U.S. and China — however China spends 50 p.c extra on its navy than the E.U. does, whereas the U.S. spends thrice extra.

Army spending isn’t the one problem. Western Europe nonetheless had sufficient mixed navy power to change the steadiness of energy between Russia and Ukraine. However the E.U. by no means appeared to think about sending troops to Ukraine as a deterrent. European leaders have spent so lengthy deferring to the U.S., successfully outsourcing safety of their very own continent, that they may not fathom the choice.

Putin, because of this, assumed that Ukraine was his for the taking. It was a modern-day model of appeasement.

For the reason that invasion, European leaders have proven indicators of shifting their method. They’ve despatched arms to Ukraine, and Germany and Denmark have introduced extra navy spending. All of it was too late to forestall struggle in Ukraine. However the horrible actuality of the struggle could but alter world politics in ways in which may discourage future aggression.

“Thus far within the geopolitical panorama, you’ve had one passive actor, which is Europe,” Fareed Zakaria advised The Occasions’s Ezra Klein. “It could be deeply ironic, if the results of what Vladimir Putin has accomplished has been to arouse the sleeping large of Europe.”

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“If we get fortunate,” Zakaria stated, “what we may even see is the emergence of a robust, strategically minded, nationwide security-minded Europe that’s keen to defend the liberal order, which is a large shift in worldwide politics.”

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Lactose-intolerant Individuals have many extra choices than they as soon as did. Grocery shops carry milk comprised of soy, almonds, coconuts, oats and even potatoes, and the development isn’t slowing down, Victoria Petersen writes in The Occasions.

Plant milks have existed for a very long time. Coconut milk has been used for hundreds of years in South Asia, South America and the Caribbean, and almond milk has been a staple ingredient in North Africa, Europe and the Center East for practically 1,000 years. However the rising reputation of vegetarian and vegan diets has turned them into an enormous enterprise: In 2020, plant-based milks accounted for 15 p.c of all retail milk gross sales.

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“Dwelling in a metropolitan hub like London, I’ve no must be consuming cow, goat or some other animal’s milk,” Sarah Bentley, who runs a plant-based-cooking college, stated. Her favorites: hemp milk, for its low environmental affect, and oat milk that’s enriched with B and D nutritional vitamins for her son.

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UK imposes sanctions on Isabel dos Santos, Ukrainian oligarch Firtash

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UK imposes sanctions on Isabel dos Santos, Ukrainian oligarch Firtash

The measures are a part of the Labour government tightening Britain’s anti-corruption sanctions regime.

The United Kingdom has barred Angolan billionaire Isabel dos Santos and Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash and frozen their UK assets, the government announced, in what it said was part of a new crackdown on “dirty money”.

The measures on Thursday were the first step in tightening Britain’s anti-corruption sanctions regime as promised in July’s election, the Labour government said.

“These unscrupulous individuals selfishly deprive their fellow citizens of much-needed funding for education, healthcare and infrastructure – for their own enrichment,” Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a statement.

Dos Santos, whose father Jose Eduardo dos Santos served as Angola’s president for 38 years until 2017, is Africa’s first female billionaire and has faced corruption accusations in Angola and elsewhere for years. She denies the allegations and says she is the target of a long-running political vendetta.

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She was sanctioned by the United States in 2021 for “involvement in significant corruption” and is barred from entering the country.

Britain said dos Santos abused her positions at Angolan state oil firm Sonangol and telecoms company Unitel to embezzle at least 350 million pounds ($440m).

Dos Santos lost an appeal to overturn an order freezing up to 580 million pounds of her assets in September as part of a lawsuit at London’s High Court brought by Unitel. Global police agency Interpol has issued a red notice for her.

In a statement cited by the Reuters news agency, dos Santos said that the British sanctions were “incorrect and unjustified”.

“I was not given the opportunity to defend myself against these allegations,” she said. “I intend to appeal and I hope that the United Kingdom will give me the opportunity to present my evidence.”

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Dmytro Firtash, one of Ukraine’s most influential oligarchs, at a trial in Vienna, Austria [File: Samuel Kubani/AFP]

Firtash is wanted by Ukrainian and US authorities on suspicion of embezzling nearly $500m involving Ukraine’s gas transit system. He says the charges are without legal foundation.

He is currently in Austria fighting extradition to the US.

In June 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing sanctions on Firtash, including the freezing of his assets and withdrawal of licences from his companies, after accusing him of selling titanium products to Russian military companies.

Britain said Firtash had extracted “hundreds of millions of pounds from Ukraine through corruption”, and hidden tens of millions of pounds of ill-gotten gains in the UK property market alone.

Britain also sanctioned his wife Lada Firtash, who it said held UK assets on his behalf including the site of the old Brompton Road rail station of the London Underground.

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Latvian businessman and politician Aivars Lembergs, who was put on a US sanctions list in 2019 for alleged corruption, was also sanctioned, as was his daughter Liga Lemberga. The British government said Lembergs had “abused his political position to commit bribery and launder money.”

Lammy said the penalties were the start of a crackdown.

“I committed to taking on kleptocrats and the dirty money that empowers them when I became foreign secretary, and these sanctions mark the first step in delivering this ambition,” he said.

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‘A Complete Unknown’ First Reactions Praise ‘Shockingly Moving’ Bob Dylan Biopic: Timothée Chalamet’s Performance Is a ‘True Tour De Force’

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‘A Complete Unknown’ First Reactions Praise ‘Shockingly Moving’ Bob Dylan Biopic: Timothée Chalamet’s Performance Is a ‘True Tour De Force’

The first reactions to Timothée Chalamet‘s “A Complete Unknown” have started rolling in on social media ahead of the Bob Dylan biopic’s Christmas release date, with members of the press praising Chalamet, Monica Barbaro and more for their performances in the film.

“Timothée Chalamet slides into Bob Dylan with an effortless yet focused determination. Fearless in some hypnotic moments,” Variety‘s senior awards editor Clayton Davis wrote on X. “For me, it’s Monica Barbaro and Elle Fanning that anchor the story of an illusive, mysterious man that remains in that sphere. James Mangold helms with confidence, with gorgeous sets and costumes. Much respect to one of the best to do it.”

Film critic Scott Menzel said Chalamet “delivers the performance of the year,” adding: “A true tour-de-force where Chalamet is never seen. Chalamet’s performance is not just about the voice and look but rather all of the little nuances and mannerisms that he perfectly brings to his life in his portrayal of Bob Dylan. Great supporting performances too from Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez and Edward Norton as Pete Seeger.”

While the reactions to “A Complete Unknown” have been mostly positive so far, the biopic received some negative responses, including Los Angeles film critic Ryan Swen, who used some Dylan lyrics to describe his reaction: “It’s vile and deceitful — it’s cruel and it’s mean. Ugliest thing that you have ever seen.”

The Playlist’s Gregory Ellwood, meanwhile, called the film “superb” and “shockingly moving,” adding: “Chalamet is fantastic. Monica Barbaro is incredible. We need a Joan Baez spin off movie.”

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From Searchlight Pictures and director James Mangold (“Walk the Line”), “A Complete Unknown” follows a young Dylan as he arrives in New York in the early 1960s. The film tracks the music legend as he becomes a fixture in the Greenwich Village folk scene and befriends people like Joan Baez (played by Barbaro) and Pete Seeger (Edward Norton). The film ends after Dylan straps on an electric guitar at Newport Folk Festival in 1965, playing “Like a Rolling Stone” and revolutionizing the genre.

Speaking to Variety back in July, when the first trailer for the film was released, a dozen Dylan experts expressed cautious optimism toward “A Complete Unknown,” praising Chalamet’s performance of “A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall.”

“A Complete Unknown” is written by Mangold and Jay Cocks, and based on Elijah Wald’s 2015 book “Dylan Goes Electric!” The rest of the cast includes Boyd Holbrook as Johnny Cash, P. J. Byrne as Harold Leventhal, Scoot McNairy as Woody Guthrie, Dan Fogler as Albert Grossman and Will Harrison as Bob Neuwirth, among others. The film is produced by Fred Berger, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, Bob Bookman, Alan Gasmer, Jeff Rosen, Chalamet and Mangold.

Check out more first reactions below.

“Wow, #ACompleteUnknown. Timothée Chalamet’s performance in this is superior. James Mangold and his entire team pull off a technical feat from sound, editing, costume, cinematography to production design, down to the subtleties of makeup and hair. Loved it.” — Jazz Tangcay (@jazzt)

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“#ACompleteUnknown is absolutely incredible. Clocks in at nearly 2.5 hrs but flies by. The musical performances are perfectly placed, the story is captivating. Timothée Chalamet, Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, and Edward Norton all deliver unforgettable performances. I’m in awe.” — Tessa Smith (@MamasGeeky)

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN looks and sounds great, a standard biopic that truly comes alive when its iconic characters make passionate music together. Timothée Chalamet is well-cast but Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton steal the show as Joan Baez and Pete Seeger.” — Abe Friedtanzer (@movieswithabe)

“A Complete Unknown manages to maintain tell us everything about Bob Dylan while telling us almost nothing about Bob Dylan. Some would say that was the target. The movie is ultimately about the power of the individual and talent and how what we all want can turn on a dime, repeatedly. Chalamet brings enormous power to this portrait of a man who just keeps leaving but then also keeps delivering surprises. Edward Norton’s turn is perfectly true to Seeger. Monica Barbero delivers a Baez of many facets, from fire to ice. And Elle Fanning is destined to be underrated in a complex turn as “the first NY girlfriend.” I really need to see it again to fully negotiate all that is there and all that is not there by design.” — David Poland (@DavidPoland)

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN is a solid biopic, showing Bob Dylan as a deeply talented individual with a lack of social intelligence. Timothee Chalamet is excellent & Monica Barbaro is captivating as Joan Baez. Oscar nominatons for Best Picture, Cinematography, Sound, Costumes are possible” — Tim Gerber (@ZurrieSkate)

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Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missile toward Ukraine, air force says

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Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missile toward Ukraine, air force says

Russian troops launched various missiles, reportedly including an intercontinental ballistic missile from the Astrakhan region, in an early morning attack on Ukraine on Thursday.

Ukraine’s Air Force said on its Telegram account that it destroyed six Kh-101 cruise missiles using anti-aircraft combat.

The Russian attack hit critical infrastructure in the central-eastern city of Dnipro, according to the air force.

US EMBASSY IN KYIV CLOSED WEDNESDAY AS ‘POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT AIR ATTACK’ LOOMS

A Ukrainian chaplain from the city of Dnipro Leonid conducts an evacuation from a frontline village, as local residents are urged to leave due to shelling on November 19, 2024 in the direction of Kurakhovo, Ukraine.  ((Photo by Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images))

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This comes after Ukraine fired American-supplied long-range missiles into Russia on Tuesday, marking the first time for Kyiv to do so in the 1,000 days of war – a move that was authorized by President Biden on Sunday.

UKRAINE FIRES FIRST BARRAGE OF US-MADE LONG-RANGE MISSILES INTO RUSSIA, KREMLIN SAYS

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Moscow-appointed head of Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, Yevgeny Balitsky during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

There are currently no reports on injuries or fatalities.

If the attack did involve an ICBM, it would mark a major escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the first time such a weapon has been used.

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This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

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