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Lebanon's new president strikes a nationalistic tone amid regional shifts, further weakening of Hezbollah

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Lebanon's new president strikes a nationalistic tone amid regional shifts, further weakening of Hezbollah

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Lebanon’s political landscape has undergone a dramatic shift with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After more than two years of political deadlock, the Lebanese Parliament elected the army commander on Thursday with 99 out of 128 votes. 

Aoun’s election represents a significant achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp, reflecting the weakening influence of the powerful Shia terrorist organization within Lebanon’s political system. Despite this, experts say Hezbollah remains a formidable force in the country, and the challenges Aoun faces in balancing Lebanon’s internal politics and foreign relations remain immense.

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For much of the past two years, Hezbollah worked tirelessly to block any movement toward the election of a new president. The group had strongly opposed Aoun’s candidacy. However, as the political situation evolved and the ousting of Assad from Syria unfolded, Hezbollah was ultimately forced to accept Aoun, who secured the presidency. 

“Hezbollah had been opposed to his election for the last two and a half years and had blocked any process toward electing a president for all that time. Now, they’ve voted for him in the second round, which indicates they are in a bind, that they are weaker, and their leverage is not what it was,” Vice President for International Engagement at the Middle East Institute Paul Salem told Fox News Digital.

ISRAEL DEGRADES IRAN-BACKED HEZBOLLAH TERRORISTS IN SPECTACULAR PAGER EXPLOSION OPERATION: EXPERTS

Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as the new president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Salem points to the broader shift in regional politics, notably the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated. “They are now not only cut off from Iran, but they’re also isolated in the region. They’re the only Shiite community between here and Basra, and it’s a Sunni takeover of Damascus, which used to be dominated by a friendly Alawite, pro-Iranian regime. It’s a huge historic shift that leaves the Shiites and Hezbollah deeply isolated. Hezbollah’s future is worse than its present,” he added.

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The U.S. and Israel, along with other Western and Arab powers, have long sought to distance Lebanon from Hezbollah’s influence, and Aoun’s election could be a step in that direction.

Aoun, a Maronite Christian and the commander of the Lebanese army, took office with a strong message focused on Lebanon’s sovereignty. In his inaugural speech, he emphasized the necessity for the state to have a monopoly on the use of force.

David Schenker, former head of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. State Department under the first Trump administration, remarked that Aoun’s speech was both a positive and pragmatic step for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all groups and ensuring that weapons are under the control of the state,” Schenker said. “This was a good move, as it shows a commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law.”

CHRISTIAN LEADER IN LEBANON URGES US, ALLIES TO INTERVENE TO STOP HEZBOLLAH

An updated graphic detailing the members of Hezbollah’s leadership who have been eliminated by the Israeli Defense Forces. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

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However, Schenker, who is currently the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that Aoun’s position as president does not grant him absolute power in Lebanon’s political system. “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role that he demonstrated as chief of staff,” Schenker noted.

Though Hezbollah has been militarily weakened by recent Israeli campaigns and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other key leaders, it still retains significant influence, particularly in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker says the organization’s ability to intimidate Lebanon’s population is diminishing. “Hezbollah isn’t the force it was. It can still reactivate its killing machine if needed, but it no longer dominates the way it did before,” he said.

“Hezbollah has calculated that they’ve lost this battle against Israel, and then they lost another battle in Syria. So their interest now is to lay low, have a president and government that’s acceptable to the U.S. and the region, which, at the end of the day, they hope will protect them from any further Israeli incursions and help their people,” Salem explained. “They need a functioning government to secure international aid for the millions displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. It’s about survival for them, not just politically, but financially.”

Hezbollah terrorists form a human barrier during the funeral procession of slain top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Aug. 1, 2024. (Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Aoun’s election is not only significant for Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, but also for the country’s relations with external powers like the U.S. and Israel. Lebanon has faced economic collapse, with its currency devalued by over 99%, and nearly 80% of the population now living below the poverty line. Hezbollah’s previous resistance to international pressure now seems less tenable.

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The U.S. has long supported Lebanon’s military and is expected to strengthen its ties with Aoun, given his role in the army and his pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker said that Lebanon’s future alignment with the U.S. and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.

Lebanese cabinet ministers applaud the newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, standing at the top, as he gives his first speech at Parliament after being sworn in as president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

“The U.S. military has been close to the Lebanese military for many years,” Salem told Fox News Digital. “That has been the strongest link between the U.S. and Lebanon. So to have the head of the military come to power, he’s a known figure in Washington. He’s known to the military, and now, he’s known to the diplomats and politicians, and will be known to President Trump and others over time. This realignment could put Lebanon on a much more natural path of cooperation with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies.”

Israel will also be closely monitoring Aoun’s presidency. Schenker said that Aoun’s commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for disarmament in southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative stance from Lebanon toward Israel. “Israel will be invested in Lebanon’s implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun’s stance will influence Israel’s position toward Lebanon, as the Trump administration has clearly signaled a desire to end the wars in the region.”

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Israel sees no certainty Iran’s government will fall despite war

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Israel sees no certainty Iran’s government will fall despite war
Israeli officials in closed discussions have acknowledged there is no certainty the war against Iran will lead to a collapse of its clerical government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters, with no sign ​of an Iranian uprising amid the bombardment.
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Canada’s Carney under pressure to act after synagogues shot at in latest antisemitic incidents

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Canada’s Carney under pressure to act after synagogues shot at in latest antisemitic incidents

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Over the weekend, two Toronto synagogues were attacked by gunfire. Several days earlier, another synagogue was hit by around twenty gunshots on the Jewish holiday of Purim. 

Though the three attacks caused no injuries, many in the Jewish community are demanding concrete action from Prime Minister Mark Carney — not just words of comfort that have typically followed such antisemitic incidents.

Carney took to X saying that the “antisemitic and criminal attacks violate the right of Canadian Jewish men and women to live and pray in complete safety” and “represent a serious assault on the way of life of all Canadians.”

ISRAELI MINISTER WARNS CANADA IS ‘MARCHING TOWARD THE ABYSS’ AFTER JEWISH MAN ATTACKED IN FRONT OF CHILDREN

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Temple Emanu-El in Toronto, Canada was shot at on March 3, 2026. No injuries were reported. (Nick Lachance/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

In the aftermath of the first synagogue attack, Israel’s National Security Council warned Israelis overseas to “maintain vigilance and adhere to safety precautions.” Among their suggestions were for Israelis to “conceal Jewish and Israeli identifiers while in public spaces,” to be aware of surroundings “in areas associated with Israel or Judaism,” and to “avoid visiting sites identified as Jewish or Israeli.”

On X, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said that “all eyes are on Canada: it’s time to halt the unprecedented wave of Jew-hatred that has erupted since October 7th.”

Anti-Israel demonstrators gather outside Union Station during a rally in Toronto, Ontario on Jan. 4, 2024.  (Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Like many Western countries, Canada has seen a marked rise in annual antisemitic incidents since the Hamas terror attack in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The League for Human Rights B’nai Brith Canada found that there were 6,219 incidents of antisemitism in Canada in 2024. This constituted an average of 17 incidents per day, more than double the eight incidents per day calculated in 2022. 

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CANADA’S ANTISEMITISM ENVOY RESIGNS, CITING EXHAUSTION AMID HATE SURGE

While figures for 2025 have yet to be released, Public Safety Canada noted that from April to June 2025, “Among hate crimes targeting religion… the majority were directed at the Jewish community (69%).”

Conservative MP Roman Baber, said the behavior of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and other liberal Canadian politicians have been “adding fuel to the fire of Jew hatred in Canada.”

Baber aimed further criticism at Carney, saying, “When the Prime Minister on the campaign trail says he knows there is genocide in Gaza, he engages in Jew hatred.”

General view of Beth Avraham Yoseph of Toronto synagogue in Thornhill, north of Toronto, Ontario. The place of worship was one of three synagogues attacked in early March 2026.

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Baber was referring to an event in April 2025 during which a heckler yelled over a bustling crowd that “there is a genocide happening in Gaza.” Carney responded, “I’m aware, that’s why we have an arms embargo.”

SKYROCKETING ANTISEMITISM IN CANADA SPARKS CONCERN FOR COUNTRY’S JEWS AHEAD OF ELECTION

Carney later said that he did not hear the heckler use the term “genocide.”

Baber noted that “when the Prime Minister recognized the Palestinian state, he rewarded the brutality of Hamas, and he did so on the eve of Rosh Hashanah.”

In his announcement, released the day prior to the Jewish holiday, Carney claimed that recognizing “the State of Palestine, led by the Palestinian Authority, empowers those who seek peaceful coexistence and the end of Hamas,” and “in no way legitimizes terrorism, nor is it any reward for it.” He also claimed recognition “in no way compromises Canada’s steadfast support for the State of Israel, its people, and their security.” 

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Anti-Israel protesters gather outside the Beth Avraham Yoseph of Toronto synagogue on March 7, 2024. The place of worship was one of three synagogues shot at in the first week of March 2026. (Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Watchdog organization StopAntisemitism told Fox News Digital that “every day we are seeing painful reminders that antisemitism remains a real and dangerous threat. Acts of violence meant to intimidate or silence our community will not succeed. Loud and proud Jews will not allow hatred or fear to deter our Jewish way of life or our presence in the world. Not in Canada, in the United States, in Europe, and certainly not in Israel.”

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StopAntisemitism called for the perpetrators to “be punished to the fullest extent of the law so that justice is served and deterrence is clear.”

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Not ‘a litre of oil’ to pass Strait of Hormuz, expect $200 price tag: Iran

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Not ‘a litre of oil’ to pass Strait of Hormuz, expect 0 price tag: Iran

Warning comes as 400 million barrels of oil are being released from global reserves during waterway’s closure.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it will not allow “a litre of oil” through the Strait of Hormuz as the closure of the key Gulf waterway continues to roil global energy markets during the US-Israeli war on Iran.

A spokesperson for the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said on Wednesday that any vessel linked to the United States and Israel or their allies “will be considered a legitimate target”.

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“You will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Expect oil at $200 per barrel,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The price of oil depends on regional security, and you are the main source of insecurity in the region.”

Global oil prices have fluctuated wildly this week during continued US-Israeli attacks against Iran, which has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at targets across the wider Middle East.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies transit, and production slowdowns in some Gulf countries have raised concerns of further disruptions.

Concerns around the duration of the war, which began on February 28 and has shown no sign of abating, are also adding to uncertainty, sending oil prices soaring.

On Wednesday, three ships were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security and risk firms said, including a Thai-flagged cargo vessel that came under attack about 11 nautical miles (18km) north of Oman.

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Release of oil reserves

World leaders, including members of the Group of Seven (G7) and the European Union, have been mulling what action to take in response to the war’s impact on global economies.

Christian Bueger, a professor of international relations at the University of Copenhagen and an expert in maritime security, said Europe will be facing “a major energy supply crisis” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

“For the shipping industry right now, it’s impossible to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” Bueger told Al Jazeera. “And if there are not stronger signals in the near future that they can at least try to go through the strait, then we are looking at a major shipping crisis, which can last weeks if not months.”

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to try to lower prices.

“This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said during an address from the agency’s headquarters in Paris.

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“But to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

The reserve supplies will be made available “over a timeframe that is appropriate” for each member state, the IEA said in a statement without providing details.

German Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche said earlier in the day that the country would comply with the release while Austria also said it would make part of its emergency oil reserve available and extend its national strategic gas reserve.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said it would release about 80 million barrels from its private and national oil reserves.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the country, which gets about 70 percent of its oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, would begin releasing the reserves on Monday.

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