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Israel-Gaza Cease-Fire Talks and Hostage Release Negotiations Gain Momentum: What to Know

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Israel-Gaza Cease-Fire Talks and Hostage Release Negotiations Gain Momentum: What to Know

High-level cease-fire talks appeared to be gaining momentum on Monday as Arab and American mediators pressed for an agreement to halt the fighting in Gaza and release hostages held by Hamas before President-elect Donald J. Trump assumes office on Jan. 20.

It was still unclear whether the parties had reached a resolution on all the central disputes that have proved insurmountable in previous rounds of negotiations, but officials expressed optimism that a deal was achievable..

On Monday, President Biden suggested an agreement between Israel and Hamas was imminent. “On the war between Israel and Hamas, we’re on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago finally coming to fruition,” he said in a foreign policy speech.

Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, said there was “a distinct possibility” that Hamas and Israel could agree to a deal this week.

“The question is now can we all collectively seize the moment and make this happen,” he told Bloomberg in an interview.

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A Hamas official said in a text message that progress had been made on all issues and that a deal was possible in the coming two days as long as Israel does not change its position at the last minute.

Earlier on Monday, an Arab diplomat said “real progress” was being made in the talks, and two Israeli officials said a draft agreement was awaiting Hamas’s approval, with the next 24 hours seen as being critical.

Other Israeli officials said that the optimal conditions for an agreement had been created, making a breakthrough possible. These officials said that the emerging agreement would allow Israel to maintain a buffer zone in Gaza during its implementation and that Israeli forces would not leave the territory until the release of all hostages.

They also said it would allow displaced Palestinians in southern Gaza to return to the north while unspecified “security arrangements” were enforced.

The Hamas official, the diplomat and the Israeli officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.

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For months, repeated rounds of talks have seen hopes rise only to be dashed days later, with Israel and Hamas each blaming the other for the impasse.

If a deal is achieved, it would bring some respite to Palestinians in Gaza, who have endured miserable conditions in displacement camps and relentless bombardments by Israel, and the families of hostages taken from Israel, who have suffered for months wondering about the fate of their loved ones.

  • Hamas leaders want to bring about an end to the Israeli assault, which has severely weakened the group’s armed wing and government, uprooted nearly two million people and reduced cities to rubble. Hamas officials have also said they are seeking a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the return of displaced people in the south of the enclave to the north, the entry of materials for reconstruction, and freedom for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. On Monday, Hamas said in a statement that Palestinian prisoners would be freed soon.

  • The parties have long been discussing an agreement that would have three stages in what Arab and American officials hope will result in the end of the war. But Israeli officials said on Monday that the deal coming together could have only two phases, with negotiations about the details of the second stage commencing on the 16th day of the first stage.

  • A major hurdle to the success of the talks has been the permanency of a cease-fire. While Hamas has demanded a comprehensive end to the war, Mr. Netanyahu has said he wants a “partial” deal that would allow Israel to resume the war after freeing hostages.

  • Israel has been demanding vague language in the text of an agreement that leaves room for a resumption of fighting at some point, according to a Palestinian familiar with the matter and two Israeli officials. Mr. Netanyahu has feared that his right-wing coalition partners could take down his government and jeopardize his political future if he agrees to a deal that ends the war, analysts say.

  • In a post on X on Monday, Bezalel Smotrich, the Israeli finance minister, described “the emerging deal” as “a catastrophe for the national security” of Israel and declared he would not support it.

  • Hamas has not suggested that it would be willing to compromise on its demand to end the war. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, told a gathering in Algeria last week that there must be “an absolute end to the aggression.”

  • Another hurdle has been how far into Gaza Israel will be allowed to carry out military operations in the first phase of an agreement. Israel had wanted the ability to maneuver up to 1.5 kilometers, or about a mile, into the enclave, the two Israeli officials and the Palestinian familiar with the matter said. Hamas had wanted any incursions limited to within 500 meters of the border, according to the Palestinian.

  • The Israeli officials, however, have now been saying that the emerging agreement would allow Israel to maintain a buffer zone in Gaza during its implementation and that Israeli forces would not leave the territory until the release of all hostages.

  • Israel has demanded a list from Hamas of which hostages are still alive. Without that, Israeli officials say, there can be no agreement on how many Palestinian prisoners Israel would be willing to release in exchange. As of Sunday morning, Israel had not received such a list, according to an official familiar with the matter.

  • Last week, Hamas representatives indicated that the group had approved an Israeli list of 34 hostages to be released in the first stage of an agreement, but it did not specify how many of them were alive. On Wednesday, the Israeli authorities announced that the body of one of the hostages whose name appeared on the list— Youssef Ziyadne, 53, an Arab citizen of Israel — had been found in Gaza.

  • On Monday, Israeli officials confirmed that the number of hostages to be released in the first stage was 33 and said their assessment was that most of them were alive.

  • But Hamas has agreed to Israel’s request to include 11 contested individuals on the list of hostages to be released in the first phase of a deal. Israel classifies them as civilians, but Hamas considers them soldiers, according to the two Israeli officials and the Palestinian. Israel is weighing Hamas’s demand that the 11 be treated as soldiers who would be exchanged for a higher number of Palestinian prisoners than those released for civilian hostages.

Isabel Kershner contributed reporting to this article.

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Fake Euronews website targets Hungary election with false claims

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Fake Euronews website targets Hungary election with false claims

A fake Euronews-style article and website claiming that Hungary’s opposition leader Péter Magyar insulted Donald Trump is circulating online as part of a wider campaign researchers have linked to Storm-1516, a Russian disinformation operation.

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The article, which utilises a real byline and appeared on a fake Euronews website that has since been taken down, claims that Magyar delivered a blistering critique of Trump at a campaign rally.

Among other false claims, the article says Magyar called Trump a “senile grandpa” and promised to undo “key agreements” made with the US, should Magyar win parliamentary elections in Hungary scheduled on 12 April.

The article’s contents are fabricated and the website it appeared on have no connection to Euronews.

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A video report that repeats the claim using Euronews’ branding is also circulating on social media. The Cube, Euronews’ fact-checking team, found examples of this clip circulating since Monday evening, some with thousands of views.

The videos were posted by accounts with similar captions in quick succession, implying they are part of a coordinated campaign. The accounts that posted the clip were largely anonymised, with X’s location tool showing they are based in the US and Africa.

Researchers at Antibot for Navalny, a collective that tracks Russian bot networks online, told The Cube that the post was part of Storm-1516, a prolific Russian disinformation campaign that spreads claims online that further the interests of the Russian government.

The group are typically active during election campaigns, having spread false claims about Democratic Party candidates in the 2024 US presidential election and during Germany’s February 2025 elections.

In December, Germany’s Foreign Minister summoned the country’s Russian ambassador over allegations of repeated Russian hybrid attempts in Germany including allegations that Storm 1516 actively spread disinformation during the country’s general elections.

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At the time, the campaign focused on Chancellor candidate for the Greens, Robert Habeck, and current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Hungary’s upcoming parliamentary elections will see Magyar’s Tisza Party pitted against current Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Magyar has accused Hungary’s secret service of targeting his party’s campaign systems just weeks before the election date in a hostile election campaign in which polls suggest his party is ahead.

Orbán, meanwhile, has become embroiled in scandal in Brussels after a Washington Post investigation revealed Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó regularly leaked sensitive information from high-level European Union meetings to Moscow.

Orbán has maintained close ties to the Kremlin despite the resistance of other European leaders and has utilised Hungary’s veto power to block key decisions on European aid to Ukraine.

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Reuters: Iran toughens negotiating stance amid mediation efforts

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Reuters: Iran toughens negotiating stance amid mediation efforts
Iran’s negotiating posture has hardened sharply since the war began, with the Revolutionary ‌Guards exerting growing influence over decision-making, and it will demand significant concessions from the United States if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, three senior sources in Tehran said.

In any talks with the U.S., Iran would not only demand an end to the war but concessions that are likely red lines for U.S. President Donald Trump – guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.


Iran would also refuse to negotiate any limitations to its ballistic missile programme, they said, an issue that had been a red line for Tehran during the talks that were taking place when the U.S. and Israel launched their attack last month.

Reuters

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Who actually runs Iran right now? The key power players as Trump claims talks to ‘top’ official

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Who actually runs Iran right now? The key power players as Trump claims talks to ‘top’ official

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“Nobody knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity inside Iran’s leadership. “But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly.” 

His remarks come as the U.S. claims it is engaged in talks with a “top” Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies negotiations are taking place.

The question now is not just whether talks are happening, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver. With strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.

Here’s who matters now.

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TRUMP’S MIDDLE EAST ENVOY REVEALS WHAT LED TO BREAKDOWN IN IRAN TALKS BEFORE OPERATION EPIC FURY

A State Department Rewards for Justice poster offers up to $10 million for information on key leaders tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Asghar Hejazi, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ali Larijani, Eskandar Momeni and Esmail Khatib. (State Department / Rewards for Justice)

The IRGC: The real power behind the state

Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend. 

“No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,” he said.  “But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC.”

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“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security rump state than ever before,” he said. 

“It shouldn’t particularly preoccupy Washington, who is and isn’t offering negotiations,” Ben Taleblu added, “The preeminent preoccupation of Washington has to be working toward a military win at a political win, and that does not come by working with the IRGC, but actually beating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces’s most arrayed against them in Iran, which are the Iranian people.”

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military personnel are walking along Enghelab (Revolution) Avenue as an Iranian Kheibar Surface-to-Surface missile is being unveiled during the Ela Beit Al-Moghaddas (Al-Aqsa Mosque) military rally in Tehran, Iran, on November 24, 2023. The IRGC is unveiling two new missiles during the rally.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The command room: Supreme National Security Council

If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.

The Supreme National Security Council is Iran’s top forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and government officials under the authority of the supreme leader. It was established after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.

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Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, as secretary of the council, reinforcing its central role in coordinating military and political decisions, Reuters reported Tuesday.

A Middle Eastern official source with knowledge of the system described the structure:

“Right now, the power is in the hands of the IRGC,” the source said. “The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.”

A mourner holds a poster depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

Mojtabā Khamenei: The supreme leader in name

Formally, Iran’s system centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But his actual grip on power remains uncertain.

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Khamenei inherited the position’s sweeping authority following his father’s death, but “lacks the automatic authority enjoyed by his father,” the Middle Eastern official said.

Moreover, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and only has issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after reportedly being injured in the initial Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested his role may currently be limited: “For the time being, since Mojtaba has been injured, it seems he’s a hologram and not holding power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in ruling Iran. He is not just a figurehead. But anyhow, for the time being, the control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guards.”

WITH DOGS, DANCE AND UNCOVERED HAIR, IRANIANS DEFY ‘UNHOLY ALLIANCE’ OF SOCIALISTS, RADICALS: ‘HYPOCRITES!’

Ghalibaf: The man at the center of Trump’s claim

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a public event in Iran in 2024 (Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)

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Trump’s statement that he is speaking to a “top person” has focused attention on one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, Axios reported.

A former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and current parliament speaker, Ghalibaf represents a hybrid figure inside the system, bridging military credentials and political authority.

He was one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.

IRAN WAR, 11 DAYS IN: US CONTROLS SKIES, OIL SURGES AND THE REGION BRACES FOR WHAT’S NEXT

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Ghalibaf is expected to meet U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the capital of Pakistan as early as the end of this week.

Ben Taleblu said: “Those who see the ascendants of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, having extended power outside his traditional civilian rule, have missed the decades of how personality, not profession, has been the driving force, has been a driving force in Iranian politics for the past few decades. I would also say those who worry about the IRGC background of the Supreme National Security Council are all that in Iran today, may have missed the fact that the past few Supreme National Security Council Secretaries, Shamkhani, Larijani, Ahmadian, all also had IRGC backgrounds.”

At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States, and no direct confirmation of negotiations has been provided by either side.

Araqchi: The diplomat carrying messages

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister following their talks in Moscow on April 18, 2025. (Getty Images)

Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.

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If talks were to take place, Araqchi likely would be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf, Reuters reported.

But analysts caution that his role is limited. He may act as a channel for communication, but does not set policy independently. 

Strategic decisions, particularly on war and negotiations, are still shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary and Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, attend the meeting of the interim leadership council of Iran in an unknown location, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Iran, March 1, 2026.  (IRIB/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

The wider power circle: generals, clerics and enforcers

Beyond the headline figures, a broader group of officials who continue to shape Iran’s direction can be identified.

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These include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and senior clerical and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.

Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression and religious legitimacy.

Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governing network.

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A billboard depicting Iran’s supreme leaders since 1979: (L to R) Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini (until 1989), Ali Khamenei (until 2026), and Mojtaba Khamenei (incumbent) is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. Iran marked the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father as its supreme leader on March 9, 2026.  (AFP/Via Getty Images)

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Despite internal divisions, Iran’s leadership remains united on one core objective: survival of the regime.

Kuperwasser described the split: “There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani, and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually held the upper hand … But they are united in one issue — that the regime should survive and stay in power.”
Iran’s U.N. mission did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication. 

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