This week, we witnessed deep divisions between EU member states over the ongoing conflict in the Middle East – once again.

The reason was the decision by the International Criminal Court to seek arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister and his defence chief as well as against three Hamas leaders.

Reactions ranged from welcoming the Court’s decision — in Belgium, France and Slovenia — to rebuking it in various forms — Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic.

The disunity was also on display when Ireland and Spain together with Norway moved to recognise Palestine as an independent state – something that had been discussed for quite a while.

“Quite frankly, because we must keep the hope, the dream and the destination of a two-state solution alive at a time when, sadly, others are working to undermine that,” Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris told Euronews.

“Ireland would have much preferred to have done this as part of a peace process. But we can’t wait forever. It’s an awful long time, many decades, since the Oslo Accords.”

Ukraine air defence

There is more European unity regarding Ukraine – on the surface. But when it comes to arms shipments, action hasn’t always matched words.

Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions, Ukraine complained, at a time when Russia seems to be stepping up its offensive in the north-east.

In the face of relentless Russian attacks, Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, during a visit to Kyiv, warned that the country needed to boost its air defences – with Western help.

“Some of the rockets and missiles could be brought down by air defence, but obviously not all of them. And this is why I am calling worldwide to increase the air defence support.”

Moldova’s EU future

Watching the war very closely is Moldova, a country sandwiched between EU and NATO member Romania, and Ukraine.

The former Soviet republic has long been defying warnings from Moscow that closer Western integration could see it face Ukraine’s fate.

Nonetheless, Moldova signed a defence partnership with Brussels this week, a step designed to tie the country closer to the EU. The country is a candidate to join the bloc and formal talks are expected to begin next month.

For more on this, we spoke to Daniela Vidaicu, executive director of the Moldova Soros Foundation.

Euronews: So, how significant are the EU accession talks for the Moldovan public, how do people see EU membership?

Vidaicu: Well, the upcoming inter-governmental conference to be held in the nearest future is the most important political event for the pro-European Moldovan population. (…) Moldova is an inclusive society, it managed to achieve very good milestones in implementing national and domestic reforms so that the country and the society is transformed. And the negotiations should really move forward to be irreversible. For Moldovans, as you ask, both for those who are living in the country, but also for those that are living abroad in EU member states (and) holding already European citizenship, the European integration of Moldova is very important as a development plan and the most, probably, important strategic plan since its independence.

Euronews: We hear a lot about Russian disinformation – tell us what’s happening?

Vidaicu: Well, unfortunately, Moldova is one of the most affected European countries by Russian propaganda, which is very much coordinated by the Russian parties, the Russian media, the Russian social networks and influencers. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moldova started to face a very complicated, complex and aggressive hybrid war that undermines its development, its social cohesion, independence and security. And the goal actually is to increase the population polarisation and scepticism towards the European integration of the country and to keep the country under the Russian control, actually. So, the fake news, the disinformation, the Russian manipulation and interference target social or economic or political Moldovan vulnerabilities to keep the country in poverty and to undermine the European development of the country.

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Euronews: There is a constitutional referendum coming up, there will be elections in October – how are these campaigns going, and to what extent is the EU part of the debate?

Vidaicu: Yes, indeed. In October 2024, Moldova is going to host two important electoral events. Both events are considered to be very relevant and very crucial for the Moldovan future and are going to happen on the same day. We have the pro-European government and the president, who announced his intention to run for the second mandate, civil society and media who are supporting the European integration. And we have the pro-Russian parties and Russian media that are trying to convince the population not to go to the referendum, to boycott the referendum or to vote against the referendum.

June 1944 – June 2024

In a few weeks, the Allies will mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day, that were the beginning of World War II and the liberation of Europe from the Nazis.

As a tribute to the fallen and to surviving veterans the British Royal Mint unveiled a commemorative coin depicting soldiers disembarking from a landing craft.

More than two million soldiers, sailors, pilots, medics and other people from a dozen countries were involved in Operation Overlord.

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And nearly 160,000 troops hit the codenamed beaches of Utah, Omaha, Gold, Juno and Sword on June 6th, 1944.

A few days ago, to mark the coin’s release, its design was recreated in Normandy – on Gold Beach. Quite appropriate.

At 35 meters across, the sand art served as a reminder of the bravery and sacrifices of allied troops – for a few days.

The coin, on the other hand, is permanent.

Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources have told the Reuters news agency.

Three of the sources claimed that the Russian leader had expressed frustration about what he views as Western-backed attempts to hinder ceasefire negotiations.

“Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war,” a senior Russian source who has reportedly worked with Mr Putin and has knowledge of top-level conversations in the Kremlin, told Reuters.

The Russian president later told a press conference on Friday that peace talks with Ukraine need to be renewed, but they “must reflect realities on the ground”.

Sources said freezing the conflict along current lines is a non-negotiable, as it would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions, but without full control of any.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire, going so far as to sign a decree in 2022 that formally declared any talks with Mr Putin “impossible”.

He reiterated this view at the beginning of the year, saying any pause in fighting would “play into [Russia’s] hands” and “might crush us afterwards”.

Both Mr Putin and Mr Zelenskyy also rejected a proposal put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month, for a temporary ceasefire to be held during the Olympic Games, between 26 July-11 August.

But according to two of the sources who spoke to Reuters, Mr Putin thinks recent gains in the war are enough to sell a victory to the Russian people.

This month, Russian forces have intensified the bombardment of the southern region of Kharkiv.

The Kremlin has claimed its troops have taken control of numerous villages and cities in the area, while Ukrainian officials said troops were still in control of the majority of the territory and house-to-house fighting had been taking place.

Read more:
Putin seizes chance to hit Kharkiv
‘Possibility’ of $50bn Ukraine loan from seized Russian assets
Inside Ukraine’s new northern frontline

Mr Putin is reportedly understood to think any dramatic new advances in the country would require another nationwide mobilisation which he wants to avoid – one source pointing to the fact that his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.

Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told Reuters that Russia had repeatedly made clear it was open to dialogue to achieve its goals, saying the country did not want “eternal war”.

But Mr Putin has already ruled out that he will attend the upcoming Ukraine Peace Summit, which is being held in Burgenstock, Switzerland, from 15-16 June – which Ukraine is keen for Russia’s allies to attend.

Much of the West – including the US – does not believe Russia is interested in serious ceasefire negotiations.

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A US state department spokesperson said in response to Reuters that any initiative for peace must respect Ukraine’s “territorial integrity, within its internationally recognised borders”.

They described Russia as the sole obstacle to peace in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s foreign and defence ministries did not respond to Reuters for comment.

• Several Russian defense ministry personnel have been arrested on corruption charges over the last month.
• Corruption in Russia functions as both a carrot and a stick. If the state has compromising information on key officials, it can cherry-pick whom to target, says Sam Greene, director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
• The reason for the changes is unclear. Theories include that Putin is reasserting control over the Defense Ministry amid the war in Ukraine, and that a “turf battle” has broken out between the military and the security services.

It began last month with the arrest of a Russian deputy defense minister. Then the head of the ministry’s personnel directorate was hauled into court. This week, two more senior military officials were detained. All face charges of corruption, which they have denied.

The arrests started shortly before President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term and shuffled his ally, longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, into a new post.

They immediately raised questions about whether Putin was reasserting control over the Defense Ministry amid the war in Ukraine, whether a turf battle had broken out between the military and the security services, or whether some other scenario was playing out behind the Kremlin’s walls.

PUTIN SIGNS DECREE NAMING NEW RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING REPLACEMENT OF DEFENSE MINISTER

A look at what’s behind the arrests and why they are happening:

HOW SERIOUS IS CORRUPTION IN RUSSIA?

Corruption scandals are not new and officials and top officials have been accused of profiting from their positions for decades.

Graft in Russia functions as both a carrot and a stick. It’s a way of “encouraging loyalty and urging people to be on the same page,” as well as a method of control, said Sam Greene, director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Putin wants everyone to have “a skeleton in their closet,” security expert Mark Galeotti said on a recent podcast. If the state has compromising material on key officials, it can cherry-pick whom to target, he added.

Corruption, “is the essence of the system,” said Nigel Gould-Davies a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The war in Ukraine has led to ballooning defense spending that only has increased opportunities for graft.

WHO WAS ARRESTED?

Former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov — the first official arrested in April and the highest-ranking one so far — oversaw large military-related construction projects and had access to vast sums of money. Those projects included rebuilding parts of Ukraine’s destroyed port city of Mariupol.

The team headed by the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny alleged that Ivanov, 48, and his family owned elite real estate, enjoyed lavish parties and trips abroad, even after the war began. They also alleged that Ivanov’s wife, Svetlana, divorced him in 2022 to avoid sanctions and to continue living a luxurious lifestyle.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday the recent arrests are not a “campaign” against corruption but rather reflect ongoing activities in “all government bodies.”

Peskov and Ivanov were once part of an embarrassing episode caught on camera. Navalny’s team has shared 2022 images of the Kremlin spokesman celebrating at a birthday party for Ivanov’s former wife. In the video, Peskov, with Ivanov at his side, is seen wearing a watch estimated to cost $85,000.

In April, the Investigative Committee, Russia’s top law enforcement agency, reported that Ivanov is suspected of taking an especially large bribe — a criminal offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

Since then, other arrests on bribery charges have included Lt. Gen. Yury Kuznetsov, head of the Defense Ministry’s personnel directorate; Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, a career soldier and former top commander in Ukraine; and Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin, deputy chief of the military general staff. Shamarin is a deputy to Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff.

A fifth ministry official was reported arrested Thursday — Vladimir Verteletsky, who headed a division in the ministry’s defense procurement department. He was charged with abuse of office that resulted in damages worth over $776,000, the Investigative Committee said.

Also, the deputy head of the federal prison service for the Moscow region, Vladimir Telayev, was arrested Thursday on charges of large-scale bribery, Russian reports said.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING NOW?

The arrests suggest that “really egregious” corruption in the Defense Ministry will no longer be tolerated, said Richard Connolly, a specialist on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

Shortly after his inauguration, Putin replaced Shoigu as defense minister with Andrei Belousov, an economist. Peskov said Russia’s increasing defense budget must fit into the country’s wider economy.

Peskov said Russia’s defense budget is 6.7% of gross domestic product. That is a level not seen since the Soviet era.

“There is a view that this needs to be spent more wisely,” Connolly said.

Before his death in a still-mysterious plane crash last year, mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led a brief rebellion against the country’s military leadership, saying it mismanaged the war and denied weapons and ammunition to his forces.

Belousov’s appointment is “a grudging recognition from the Kremlin” that it has to pay attention to these problems, said Gould-Davies.

It’s also critical the war is managed correctly because Russia’s economy depends on it. Russians are earning higher salaries driven by the booming defense sector. While that has created problems with inflation, it allows Putin to keep delivering on promises to raise living standards.

Greene said the government needs to “keep the war going in order to keep the economy going,” but also must ensure the costs — and corruption — are not higher than needed.

Connolly said it’s also possible that Belousov, the new defense minister, is clearing out his predecessor’s associates and sending the message that “things are going to be done differently.”

Other changes include Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Sadovenko, who was replaced by Oleg Saveliev, a former aide to Belousov, and Rossiyana Markovskaya, a former Shoigu spokesperson who said she was quitting to take a new job.

Popov’s case may be different. He fought in Ukraine and was suspended in July 2023 for criticizing the Defense Ministry leadership — like Prigozhin did — and blaming it for a lack of weapons and poor supply lines that led to many Russian casualties.

He now may be facing the consequences for that criticism.

COULD THIS BE A TURF BATTLE?

It is unclear whether the Kremlin or Russia’s security services, particularly the State Security Service, or FSB, are the driving force behind the arrests.

It’s possible that officials sufficiently distant from Putin could have been caught in the middle of a turf war unconnected to the appointment of the new defense minister.

The security services, Greene said, could be trying to “push back” against the military’s dominance seen since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

While the Kremlin denies that any kind of a purge was taking place, “if Putin didn’t want it to happen, it wouldn’t be happening,” Greene said.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

More arrests are likely as the new defense minister wants to show “there is a price to be paid” for corruption in order to rein it in, Connolly said.

Greene added that it’s also possible that “entrepreneurial” investigators will think launching a criminal case against a general is a great opportunity for career advancement.

Because corruption is so endemic, however, it could cause panic in the whole system.

If officials are arrested for behavior that previously was allowed even though it was illegal, it could shift the “red lines,” Greene said.

If the arrests continue or widen beyond the Defense Ministry, it could cause finger-pointing and for officials to “rush for the exits,” he said, and that is something the Kremlin wants to avoid.

Because the system is built on corruption, Greene said, attacking it too hard could cause it to “fall apart.”