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How European countries stand on 2% of GDP defence spending

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How European countries stand on 2% of GDP defence spending

Ever since NATO defence ministers agreed to spend a 2% GDP quota on their army budgets yearly, it’s been a persist with which the large spenders can beat their frugal companions.

It’s additionally turn out to be a lightning-rod challenge each time there’s a brand new international disaster, and the Russian conflict in Ukraine is not any totally different.

A number of European governments, notably Germany, have vowed to massively enhance defence spending because of the primary army invasion on the continent since World Struggle II.

Throughout a lot of Central and Jap Europe, politicians at the moment are racing to verify they meet the proportion goal by no less than subsequent yr.

Poland, which often meets the goal, not too long ago handed a regulation to extend its spending to three%.

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In a landmark speech in February, which presupposed to revolutionise Berlin’s strategy to nationwide safety, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz introduced a €100 billion injection in defence spending.

“It’s clear we have to make investments considerably extra within the safety of our nation, in an effort to shield our freedom and our democracy,” he mentioned.

Scholz added: “We are going to any more, yr after yr, make investments greater than 2% of gross home product in our defence.”

At present, no European authorities needs to be thought of a spendthrift. Whether or not they really shall be is one other matter.

“International locations in Europe have actually began to take the two% spending goal critically,” says Calle Håkansson, an affiliate fellow on the Swedish Institute of Worldwide Affairs’ Europe Programme.

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Though there was a development towards defence expenditure will increase lately, the conflict in Ukraine “served as a transparent catalyst for brand spanking new defence spending,” Håkansson famous.

In any case, many governments should spend extra within the coming years to exchange and replenish weapons programs they’ve despatched to Ukraine, he added.

Simply this month the governments of Slovakia, Slovenia and Latvia mentioned they supposed to achieve the spending mark by no less than 2023, if not this yr. Romania has elevated defence spending by 14% for 2022 and says it might meet the two% goal subsequent yr.

Poland’s parliament handed the Homeland Defence Act in March that can enhance defence spending to a few per cent of GDP, which might make Warsaw the second-biggest European spender in NATO, after Greece.

Finland, which not too long ago agreed to hitch NATO, spent round 1.5% of GDP on defence in 2020. However its authorities introduced an injection of €2 billion following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which might deliver it above the two% mark in 2022 or 2023.

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In Might, the Czech prime minister, Petr Fiala, mentioned his nation would attain this goal by 2024. Defence officers from North Macedonia to the Netherlands have additionally mentioned they anticipate to satisfy the purpose by that yr, which had been a deadline signed off by all members ten years in the past.

When NATO members once more agreed to satisfy the two% of GDP goal on the summit in 2014, solely the UK and Greece have been maintaining the European aspect of the cut price. 

By 2018 it was as much as 5 states, and by 2020 9 of the 28 European members of NATO have been spending the agreed proportion, in line with the defence alliance’s statistics.

In response to NATO forecasts revealed final month, seven European members of NATO will hit the goal this yr — Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and the UK. Romania and France shall be off by lower than 0.1%. All however Greece and the UK are from the previous “Jap bloc”.

However Normal Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary normal, mentioned at a summit final month that he reckons 19 companions will exceed the goal by 2024.

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“Two per cent is more and more thought of a ground, not a ceiling,” he added.

Others are taking longer, nonetheless, in line with statements made by their governments. Sweden, which additionally not too long ago agreed to hitch NATO, has vowed to achieve the two% mark by 2028. 

Now-former Prime Minister Mario Draghi mentioned in April that Italy would meet the goal the identical yr. Spain’s authorities says by 2029. Denmark thinks by 2033.

Final week, Belgium’s parliament agreed to spend an extra €10 billion by 2030, taking it as much as round 1.5% of GDP. Alexander De Croo, the prime minister, reckons the two% mark shall be reached by 2035.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off alarm bells, particularly amongst governments in Central and Jap Europe, however it additionally confirmed up issues in European defence planning that analysts had warned about for years.

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Between 1999 and 2021, EU mixed defence spending elevated by 20%, in line with stories by the European Defence Company. That compares with a 66% enhance by the US, and 292% by Russia and 592% by China, over the identical interval.

Liz Truss, the British international secretary, mentioned earlier this yr: “Geopolitics is again”.

Some are involved that Europeans can not depend on the US for defensive assist. That was panic through the Donald Trump presidency, and a few worry Europe could possibly be much more uncovered if Trump or one other “isolationist” takes the White Home in 2024.

China is now spoken of as a rival. A doable Chinese language invasion of Taiwan was a non-issue for a lot of European governments just a few years in the past; a lot of the area is decidedly pro-Taipei these days. Parliamentary committees and commentators debate whether or not Europeans would militarily assist Taiwan if Beijing makes an attempt “reunification” of the self-governed island.

Daniel Fiott, a professor on the Vrije Universiteit Brussel and Actual Instituto Elcano, says the important thing take a look at is whether or not the pledges materialise into precise defence spending. “We nonetheless do probably not know the way inflation will eat away at introduced spending will increase,” he added, referring to an all-time excessive of 8.6% inflation throughout the eurozone in June.

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Germany has not too long ago come beneath criticism after new monetary plans launched this month seem to point that defence spending will solely be round 1.5% of GDP this yr and 1.7% in 2023. Solely by 2026 will it fulfil its 2% pledge, in line with some media stories.

Even when most European nations exceed the two% goal, the query will then be: why?

“Inevitably, the extra NATO allies meet the two% goal the extra consideration will flip to the worth of the rule of thumb,” mentioned Fiott.

Precisely why 2% was chosen has been a supply of debate for years.

When it was agreed by NATO defence ministers in 2006, it was “largely supposed as a political mechanism…to assist defence ministries fend off funds cuts imposed by finance ministers,” wrote Kathleen J. McInnis and Daniel Fata, of the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research, a think-tank, in a Overseas Coverage article final month.

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In response to some analysts, the arbitrary proportion doesn’t convey a lot details about defensive preparedness. A authorities might, in any case, spend 2% of GDP on outdated army {hardware} or 1% on the most recent know-how. The latter may be higher off.

“Inevitably, the extra NATO allies meet the two% goal the extra consideration will flip to the worth of the rule of thumb,” mentioned Fiott.

However, he added, any revision of the two% rule shall be “a possibility to consider the effectiveness of defence investments in Europe”.

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Earth bids farewell to its temporary 'mini moon' that is possibly a chunk of our actual moon

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Earth bids farewell to its temporary 'mini moon' that is possibly a chunk of our actual moon

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Planet Earth is parting company with an asteroid that’s been tagging along as a “mini moon” for the past two months.

The harmless space rock will peel away on Monday, overcome by the stronger tug of the sun’s gravity. But it will zip closer for a quick visit in January.

NASA will use a radar antenna to observe the 33-foot (10-meter) asteroid then. That should deepen scientists’ understanding of the object known as 2024 PT5, quite possibly a boulder that was blasted off the moon by an impacting, crater-forming asteroid.

While not technically a moon — NASA stresses it was never captured by Earth’s gravity and fully in orbit — it’s “an interesting object” worthy of study.

The astrophysicist brothers who identified the asteroid’s “mini moon behavior,” Raul and Carlos de la Fuente Marcos of Complutense University of Madrid, have collaborated with telescopes in the Canary Islands for hundreds of observations so far.

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Currently more than 2 million miles (3.5 million kilometers) away, the object is too small and faint to see without a powerful telescope. It will pass as close as 1.1 million miles (1.8 million kilometers) of Earth in January, maintaining a safe distance before it zooms farther into the solar system while orbiting the sun, not to return until 2055. That’s almost five times farther than the moon.

First spotted in August, the asteroid began its semi jog around Earth in late September, after coming under the grips of Earth’s gravity and following a horseshoe-shaped path. By the time it returns next year, it will be moving too fast — more than double its speed from September — to hang around, said Raul de la Fuente Marcos.

NASA will track the asteroid for more than a week in January using the Goldstone solar system radar antenna in California’s Mojave Desert, part of the Deep Space Network.

Current data suggest that during its 2055 visit, the sun-circling asteroid will once again make a temporary and partial lap around Earth.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Israel confirms death of missing Abu Dhabi rabbi: 'Abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism’

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Israel confirms death of missing Abu Dhabi rabbi: 'Abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism’

Israeli officials on Sunday confirmed the death of an Abu Dhabi rabbi who had been missing since Thursday. 

“The UAE intelligence and security authorities have located the body of Zvi Kogan, who has been missing since Thursday, 21 November 2024,” the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on X. “The Israeli mission in Abu Dhabi has been in contact with the family from the start of the event and is continuing to assist it at this difficult time; his family in Israel has also been updated.” 

“The murder of Zvi Kogan, of blessed memory, is an abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism. The State of Israel will use all means and will deal with the criminals responsible for his death to the fullest extent of the law,” the statement added. 

RABBI FEARED KIDNAPPED, KILLED BY TERRORISTS AFTER GOING MISSING, PROMPTING INVESTIGATION

Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Chabad emissary, had been missing since Thursday. (Chabad.org via X)

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Rabbi Zvi Kogan was an emissary of the Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Hasidic Judaism based in Brooklyn’s Crown Heights neighborhood in New York City.

The 28-year-old was a resident of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates when he went missing Thursday. He is a citizen of both Moldova and Israel.

According to his LinkedIn, Kogan worked as a recruiter and was “passionate about volunteering and serving [his] community.”

Rabbi Zvi Kogan's grocery store

A man walks past Rimon Market, a Kosher grocery store managed by the late Rabbi Zvi Kogan, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024.  (AP Photo/Jon Gambrell)

‘CHEERLEADING FOR TERRORISM’: TWITCH STAR CALLED FOR NEW 9/11, DISMISSED HORROR OF OCT 7

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announced its investigation into the unusual disappearance on Saturday. At the time, the statement said the disappearance appeared to be related to “a terrorist incident” but did not elaborate.

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The United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Interior had confirmed it was investigating Kogan’s disappearance, but described his citizenship solely as a “Moldovan national.” 

Jew praying in UAE

Rabbi Levi Duchman performs morning prayers on the roof of the Jewish Community Center of the UAE on March 22, 2021, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.  (Andrea DiCenzo/Getty Images)

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The Rimon Market, a Kosher grocery store that Kogan managed on Dubai’s busy Al Wasl Road, was shut Sunday, according to the Associated Press. It had been a target of anti-Israel protests. 

Kogan’s wife, Rivky, is a U.S. citizen who lived with him in the UAE. She is the niece of Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg, who was killed in the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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‘Optical illusion’: Key takeaways from COP29

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‘Optical illusion’: Key takeaways from COP29

Rich countries have pledged to contribute $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations combat the effects of climate change after two weeks of intense negotiations at the United Nations climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.

While this marks a significant increase from the previous $100bn pledge, the deal has been sharply criticised by developing nations as woefully insufficient to address the scale of the climate crisis.

This year’s summit, hosted by the oil and gas-rich former Soviet republic, unfolded against the backdrop of a looming political shift in the United States as a climate-sceptic Donald Trump administration takes office in January. Faced with this uncertainty, many countries deemed the failure to secure a new financial agreement in Baku an unacceptable risk.

Here are the key takeaways from this year’s summit:

‘No real money on the table’: $300bn climate finance fund slammed

While a broader target of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 was adopted, only $300bn annually was designated for grants and low-interest loans from developed nations to aid the developing world in transitioning to low-carbon economies and preparing for climate change effects.

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Under the deal, the majority of the funding is expected to come from private investment and alternative sources, such as proposed levies on fossil fuels and frequent flyers – which remain under discussion.

“The rich world staged a great escape in Baku,” said Mohamed Adow, the Kenyan director of Power Shift Africa, a think tank.

“With no real money on the table, and vague and unaccountable promises of funds to be mobilised, they are trying to shirk their climate finance obligations,” he added, explaining that “poor countries needed to see clear, grant-based, climate finance” which “was sorely lacking”.

The deal states that developed nations would be “taking the lead” in providing the $300bn – implying that others could join.

The US and the European Union want newly wealthy emerging economies like China – currently the world’s largest emitter – to chip in. But the deal only “encourages” emerging economies to make voluntary contributions.

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Failure to explicitly repeat the call for a transition away from fossil fuels

A call to “transition away” from coal, oil, and gas made during last year’s COP28 summit in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, was touted as groundbreaking – the first time that 200 countries, including top oil and gas producers like Saudi Arabia and the US, acknowledged the need to phase down fossil fuels. But the latest talks only referred to the Dubai deal, without explicitly repeating the call for a transition away from fossil fuels.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev referred to fossil fuel resources as a “gift from God” during his keynote opening speech.

New carbon credit trading rules approved

New rules allowing wealthy, high-emission countries to buy carbon-cutting “offsets” from developing nations were approved this week.

The initiative, known as Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, establishes frameworks for both direct country-to-country carbon trading and a UN-regulated marketplace.

Proponents believe this could channel vital investment into developing nations, where many carbon credits are generated through activities like reforestation, protecting carbon sinks, and transitioning to clean energy.

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However, critics warn that without strict safeguards, these systems could be exploited to greenwash climate targets, allowing leading polluters to delay meaningful emissions reductions. The unregulated carbon market has previously faced scandals, raising concerns about the effectiveness and integrity of these credits.

Disagreements within the developing world

The negotiations were also the scene of disagreements within the developing world.

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc had asked that it receive $220bn per year, while the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) wanted $39bn – demands that were opposed by other developing nations.

The figures did not appear in the final deal. Instead, it calls for tripling other public funds they receive by 2030.

The next COP, in Brazil in 2025, is expected to issue a report on how to boost climate finance for these countries.

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Who said what?

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the deal in Baku as marking “a new era for climate cooperation and finance”.

She said the $300bn agreement after marathon talks “will drive investments in the clean transition, bringing down emissions and building resilience to climate change”.

US President Joe Biden cast the agreement reached in Baku as a “historic outcome”, while EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra said it would be remembered as “the start of a new era for climate finance”.

But others fully disagreed. India, a vociferous critic of rich countries’ stance in climate negotiations, called it “a paltry sum”.

“This document is little more than an optical illusion,” India’s delegate Chandni Raina said.

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Sierra Leone’s Environment Minister Jiwoh Abdulai said the deal showed a “lack of goodwill” from rich countries to stand by the world’s poorest as they confront rising seas and harsher droughts. Nigeria’s envoy Nkiruka Maduekwe called it “an insult”.

Is the COP process in doubt?

Despite years of celebrated climate agreements, greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures continue to rise, with 2024 on track to be the hottest year recorded. The intensifying effects of extreme weather highlight the insufficient pace of action to avert a full-blown climate crisis.

The COP29 finance deal has drawn criticism as inadequate.

Adding to the unease, Trump’s presidential election victory loomed over the talks, with his pledges to withdraw the US from global climate efforts and appoint a climate sceptic as energy secretary further dampening optimism.

‘No longer fit for purpose’

The Kick the Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition of NGOs analysed accreditations at the summit, calculating that more than 1,700 people linked to fossil fuel interests attended.

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A group of leading climate activists and scientists, including former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, warned earlier this month that the COP process was “no longer fit for purpose”.

They urged smaller, more frequent meetings, strict criteria for host countries and rules to ensure companies showed clear climate commitments before being allowed to send lobbyists to the talks.

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