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Home Insurance Rates in America Are Wildly Distorted. Here’s Why.

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Home Insurance Rates in America Are Wildly Distorted. Here’s Why.

Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024)

Note: State average is shown in counties with few or no observations.

Enid, Okla., surrounded by farms about 90 minutes north of Oklahoma City, has an unwelcome distinction: Home insurance is more expensive, relative to home values, than almost anywhere else in the country.

Enid is hardly the American community that is most vulnerable to damaging weather. Yet as a share of home prices, insurance costs more in parts of Enid than in New Orleans, much of which is below sea level. More than in Paradise, Calif., which was destroyed by the Camp fire in 2018. More than in the Florida Keys, which are frequently wracked by hurricanes. Even more than in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where houses have begun slipping into the rising sea.

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Enid’s plight reveals an odd distortion in America’s system of pricing home insurance. As a warming planet delivers increasingly damaging weather, the cost of home insurance has jumped drastically. But companies are charging some people, especially in the middle of the country and parts of the southeast, far more than other homeowners with similar levels of risk, an examination by The New York Times has shown.

Explore home insurance costs in your area with our interactive map.

Industry experts offer several reasons for the disparities, including the fact rural states have fewer homeowners to share risk, and states have varying rates of insurance fraud, which can drive up premiums.

But new research points to a striking pattern: Higher premiums are being charged in states where regulators apply less scrutiny to requests for rate increases, compared with states where officials question the justifications offered by companies and try to keep rates low, the data show.

The analysis is based on new data that make it possible for the first time to see what households pay for home insurance by county and ZIP code, across the United States. The average premium jumped 33 percent between 2020 and 2023, far more than the rate of inflation, the data show. But in some places, homeowners are paying more than twice as much for insurance, as a share of home value, than people who live elsewhere and face similar exposure to severe weather.

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Sources: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024); Zillow; FEMA; First Street Foundation.

Note: “Average premium as a share of home value” compares median home insurance premium in 2023 to Zillow’s typical home value estimate in each county. State average shown in counties with few or no observations.

As a result, America’s home insurance market is increasingly distorted, said Ishita Sen, a professor of finance at Harvard Business School who studies why insurance rates diverge from risk.

In communities where insurance rates exceed the actual risk, home ownership can be unaffordable. And in places where insurance prices are too low, it encourages people to move into homes in areas likely to be hit by wildfires or other disasters that could deliver financial ruin, Dr. Sen said.

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The market is “incentivizing all sorts of crazy behavior,” she said.

Getting a detailed look at the cost of insurance in different parts of the United States has been almost impossible until now because private insurers don’t publicly disclose what they charge. But two researchers, Benjamin Keys, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and Philip Mulder, a professor at the University of Wisconsin School of Business, found a workaround.

Homeowners often pay their insurance premiums together with their mortgage and property tax, through an escrow account. They make a single payment every month to a mortgage service company, which then pays the mortgage lender, the local government and the insurance company. The system is designed to ensure homeowners never miss a payment.

Working with CoreLogic, a property information and analytics company that collects data from mortgage servicers, the researchers obtained data for about 12.4 million of the nation’s roughly 80 million owner-occupied households. That data showed how much those households paid in escrow annually from 2014 through 2023. After deducting payments for mortgages, property tax and other fees, they could estimate what each household paid for property insurance.

Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024)

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Note: Inflation-adjusted. Each line depicts the median of all loan observations within a risk group.

There is certainly a relationship between climate risk and what insurance companies charge for coverage in case of damage from extreme weather. But all kinds of other factors get in the way, causing a misalignment between risk and premiums.

In McCurtain County, Okla., for example, the typical homeowner paid an average of $2,837 for insurance. But in the same area with the same weather just across the state line, the average homeowner in Little River County, Ark., paid $1,673.

The cost of insurance is often higher for large, expensive homes because they cost more to replace. To get more accurate comparisons, Dr. Keys and Dr. Mulder looked at insurance costs as a share of the typical local home value.

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Across the more than 9,000 ZIP codes for which data was available, the typical American household last year paid about $500 in home insurance premiums for every $100,000 of home value, or 0.5 percent, the professors found.

But in California, which suffered through more than 7,000 wildfires last year, the typical homeowner in many ZIP codes paid premiums as low as .05 percent of home value. By contrast, in parts of Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas, the average homeowner faced home insurance premiums greater than 2 percent of the value of local homes.

“Families with the same level of risk exposure pay wildly different amounts to protect themselves from harm,” Dr. Keys said. “Different prices for the same risk feels unfair.”

A visitor to Enid, population 50,000, would not recognize it as the riskiest spot in America to own a house. At the center of town is the Garfield County Courthouse, a handsome Art Deco structure built during the Great Depression, surrounded by a wide and inviting lawn. The square is ringed by storefronts offering cannabis, legal services and $500 cowboy boots.

The federal government designates Garfield County, which includes Enid and sometimes suffers hail storms and tornadoes, as having a “relatively low” level of risk. Yet the typical Enid homeowner spent $2,113 on home insurance last year, according to the researchers. That was 3.5 percent of the average home value of about $60,000 — more than six times the national average.

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That high cost is taking its toll.

In 2019, Kelsey Keyworth bought her first house, a handsome pale-gray bungalow with a wood deck and white trim. She hoped to stay in the house until her son, who is now 13, finished high school. But despite never filing an insurance claim, her premiums jumped by 42 percent over three years. Ms. Keyworth, the membership director at Enid’s YMCA, decided to sell and move with her son into a rental home.

“It’s kind of heartbreaking,” Ms. Keyworth said on a recent afternoon at a coffee shop in Enid. “You’re like, gosh, I tried so hard to get here.”

Torrie Vann, the real estate agent who sold Ms. Keyworth’s house, said that since February, other clients had sold their homes because of rising insurance premiums. “They’re having to sell and buy something smaller,” she said.

Kelsey Keyworth in Champlin Park in Enid.

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Megann Johnson, agent and owner of Great Plains Insurance.

Home buyers, meanwhile, are reacting to rising premiums in Enid by settling for smaller houses than they planned, according to Jeff Shaffer, another Realtor in town. “People are having to buy down,” he said. “There’s a lot of sticker shock.”

Oklahoma is the sixth-most expensive state for home insurance. (The top five are Florida, New York, Louisiana, Colorado and Hawaii.) But measured as a share of home value, Oklahoma ranks third, behind Louisiana and Mississippi.

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Along the edges of Oklahoma, the premium paid by the typical household last year was as much as 70 percent higher than in adjacent counties in Texas, Arkansas and Kansas — despite those counties having similar levels of exposure to disasters, according to federal data.

Megann Johnson is an insurance agent in Enid whose own home insurance premiums almost doubled, to $4,860 this year from $2,570 in 2021. She says her aunts, who sell insurance in nearby Kansas, tease her about what they call Oklahoma’s “stupid” high rates. “Our risk is the same, right?” Ms. Johnson said. “We’re 50 miles from the state line.”

Glen W. Mulready, Oklahoma’s elected insurance commissioner, has never exercised his power to deny a rate increase requested by an insurance company for home insurance. He said he believed that competition, not regulation, was the best way to hold down prices.

But that could be one important reason why Oklahoma homeowners with relatively low risk are paying high premiums, according to Dr. Sen.

In states where officials tightly control what insurance companies can charge, premiums tend to be priced below what they would be if they reflected the true likelihood of damage from storms, fires or other catastrophes, she and her co-authors found.

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Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024)

Note: “High regulation” and “lower regulation” categories from Oh, Sen and Tenekedjieva, Harvard Business School working paper (2022).

And Dr. Sen and her colleagues discovered something else.

After big losses in those tightly regulated states, such as California, national insurers tend to raise rates in more loosely regulated states. In other words, homeowners in states with weaker rules may be overpaying for insurance, effectively subsidizing homeowners in states with tougher rules, she said.

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If California makes it especially hard for insurers to increase premiums, Oklahoma makes it much easier.

Mr. Mulready defended his approach, saying it’s not his role to stop private insurance companies from raising rates in Oklahoma.

“We allow the competitive free market to work,” he said in an interview. If national companies raised rates in Oklahoma to make up losses in states like California, they would lose business to local insurers, Mr. Mulready said.

But Dr. Sen said her research suggests the home insurance market is far less competitive than it might seem. After choosing an insurer, people often stick with that same company, even if their premiums go up, she said.

Three insurers — State Farm, Farmers, and Allstate — collectively wrote more than half of all home insurance in Oklahoma last year. A spokesman for Allstate, Michael Passman, said in a statement that “we do not raise rates in one state to offset losses in another.” State Farm and Farmers did not respond to questions. Allstate is publicly traded; State Farm and Farmers are not. (Farmers’ parent company, Zurich Insurance Group, is traded on the Swiss exchange.)

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Allstate and State Farm reported a profit in their life insurance divisions last year but losses in property and casualty insurance left them in the red companywide, according to AM Best, a company that rates the financial strength of insurers. Farmers also lost money in its property and casualty insurance operations, which include home insurance, but it’s not clear if its overall business turned a profit.

Homes in Enid. Oklahoma’s current insurance commissioner has never blocked an insurers’ rate increase.

There are some other possible explanations for why insurance companies charge wildly different rates in places facing similar threats.

Insurance can be more expensive in smaller, more rural states, where there are fewer households to share the risk, said Karen Collins, a vice president at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, which represents insurance companies. Some states require higher minimum levels of coverage, which makes policies more expensive. And fraudulent claims, which end up increasing premium costs, can be more prevalent in some locations than others, she said.

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Reinsurance is another reason. The price of reinsurance (effectively, insurance purchased by insurance companies to make sure they can cover losses) has spiked in recent years. Companies buy different amounts in different parts of the country and pass those costs onto homeowners.

A fourth factor is whether a state has a government-mandated, high-risk pool of insurance designed for homeowners who cannot find private coverage. Research suggests those pools, which are available in about two-thirds of states, can lower private insurance premiums. Oklahoma has no such risk pool, though creating one would “certainly pull down rates,” Mr. Mulready said. The question for lawmakers, he added, is “whether that’s the role of government.”

Explaining the distortions in the insurance market is perhaps easier than fixing them.

United Policyholders, a nonprofit group that advocates for consumers, said the fact that some households pay more for insurance than others, despite having the same level of risk, underlined the need for regulators to demand more transparency about how insurers set rates.

That discrepancy in rates “is certainly not fair,” said Emily Rogan, a senior program officer at United Policyholders. She said customers need to know what data insurers collect on them, so that they have the opportunity to contest information that may be inaccurate.

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Forrest Bennett is an insurance agent in Oklahoma City and a Democratic state lawmaker. He said the challenge his state faced was how to protect the average homeowner from high premiums without causing insurers to flee because they can’t turn a profit, as has happened in California.

Mr. Bennett praised a new state program that gives homeowners money to install hail-resistant roofs, which he hopes will lower premiums. But he said enacting broader reforms to address the cost of disasters “requires people to accept that climate change is real.”

The rising cost of home insurance is “where climate change meets the average American’s pocketbook,” Mr. Bennett said. “We are trending toward a place where it’s not sustainable.”

Covington, Okla., just south of Enid. Oklahoma is one of the most expensive states for home insurance.

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Last fall, the Senate Budget Committee began investigating rising insurance rates and how underwriters are responding to the growing dangers of extreme weather.

“Climate havoc” is pushing up insurance costs and risks upending “housing markets, mortgage markets, and local property tax bases, and spilling out into the broader economy,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Democrat of Rhode Island and the committee’s chairman, said at a hearing on the issue in June. He warned that climate change threatens the stability of the insurance market and, by extension, the economy, in a way that “sounds eerily reminiscent of the run-up to the mortgage meltdown of 2008.”

And even in places where insurance costs remain relatively flat, the disconnect between premiums and actual risk is cause for concern, Dr. Keys said. As climate change gets worse, those insurance costs will eventually rise, and possibly quickly, he said — hurting home values, shocking some homeowners and destabilizing real estate.

“I personally think we’re in a lot of trouble,” Dr. Keys said. “This should be ringing alarm bells for housing markets all over the country.”

Edited by Lyndsey Layton and Douglas Alteen

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Additional visual editing: Claire O’Neill and Matt McCann

Methodology

Home insurance cost map: Keys and Mulder calculated annual homeowners insurance costs by separating mortgage and tax payments from loan-level escrow data obtained from CoreLogic. Households whose payments were captured by CoreLogic were not necessarily present in all years of data from 2014 to 2023.

Climate risk map vs. insurance costs as a share of home value map: Risk percentiles are based on a combination of FEMA’s National Risk Index expected annual loss rates per dollar of building value for hail, heat and cold waves, ice storms, lightning, strong winds, tornadoes, volcanic activity and winter weather. Wildfire and hurricane risk data came from First Street Foundation, which separates flood risk out of their hurricane risk score. Flooding is typically covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and less likely to be reflected in the escrow-based data.

State regulation charts: Risk scores use the composite FEMA and First Street Foundation risk scores. Categorization of “high regulation” and “low regulation” states come from analysis of requested and approved rate filings from Oh, Sen and Tenekedjieva (2022), where “lower regulation” includes both low and medium friction states. Regulation analysis was conducted on rate filing requests from 2009 to 2019. The charts use a loess regression to visualize the overall trend.

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“High regulation” states include California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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Russian ambassador to US 'concludes' term – report

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Russian ambassador to US 'concludes' term – report

Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, is “concluding” his diplomatic mission, Russian agencies reported late on Saturday.

“Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Ivanovich Antonov is concluding his Washington assignment and heading to Moscow,” Interfax agency cited a representative of the Foreign Ministry as saying.

The envoy will be returning to Moscow within hours, Vedomosti newspaper reported. There was no further detail provided.

Antonov has been Russia’s ambassador in Washington since 2017.

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Under fire: Israel's Iron Dome winning but pressure's on as conflict with Iran escalates

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Under fire: Israel's Iron Dome winning but pressure's on as conflict with Iran escalates

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As rockets continue to rain down on Israel, Tuesday marked an unprecedented attack from Iran, which fired 181 ballistic missiles toward the country. For an hour, the entire nation took shelter; fortunately, there were no casualties or injuries, thanks to Israel’s air defense system. 

This system has been crucial in protecting Israeli civilians, intercepting thousands of missiles aimed at population centers. However, some missiles did land at several air force bases and near the Mossad headquarters, although they did not cause “significant damage,” according to the IDF chief of staff.

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Israel’s air defense strategy extends beyond Iron Dome. Systems like David’s Sling and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 provide defense against medium- and long-range missiles, and these systems have also been crucial in the current conflict. Israel Air Force Reserve Brig. Gen. Doron Gavish explains that the multi-layered defense structure was designed to handle a wide range of threats. “We’ve used David’s Sling to intercept rockets from Lebanon, and Arrow 3 to counter ballistic missiles from Iran. It’s not just Iron Dome – it’s a network of systems working together.” 

HEZBOLLAH’S NEIGHBORS: ISRAELI BORDER COMMUNITY UNDER CONSTANT ATTACK FROM TERROR GROUP

Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, Oct. 1, 2024. (Reuters/Amir Cohen)

While the Iron Dome wasn’t extensively utilized against Iran, its operators have kept busy keeping Israel safe since the start of the war on Oct. 7 last year. 

“The Iron Dome has done incredible work, but, like any defensive system, the extended, high-intensity fighting has taken its toll on it – it wasn’t built for a conflict of this length and intensity,” Hilla Haddad Chmelnik, an aerospace engineer who played a key role in developing Iron Dome, and who acknowledges that the system is being tested in ways it was not originally designed for. 

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Haddad Chmelnik, who also served as director-general of Israel’s Ministry of Innovation, Science, and Technology, emphasizes the need for ongoing innovation to keep up with evolving threats. 

And with Lebanon and Israel’s escalating fight with Hezbollah, the need for the system is greater than ever, she says. Just this last week alone, hundreds of rockets, missiles and UAVs were launched against Israel from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Missiles over Israel

Rockets fired by Palestinian terrorists from Gaza City are intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome defense missile system in the early hours of Oct. 8, 2023. (Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images)

While Hamas’s rocket supply in Gaza has been largely depleted, the situation in Lebanon is very different. “In Gaza, we have significantly reduced the number of rockets left in Hamas’ arsenal. But in Lebanon, the numbers have not dropped enough,” she says. Hezbollah is believed to have perhaps 140,000 rockets, and they are much more sophisticated than those used by Hamas and can penetrate much deeper into Israel. 

And then there is the question of Iran, and the possibility of the war widening to include direct conflict with that country. “Compared to Lebanon, the threat from Iran is more manageable,” she says. Staging a large-scale missile attack from Iran is a complex undertaking, which can be detected and preemptively targeted,” Haddad Chmelnik says. “Launching a ballistic missile 1,500 kilometers requires preparation, and that’s visible. It’s very hard to hide from satellites, and that gives us the opportunity to strike preemptively, in addition to preparing to defend ourselves.”

Haddad Chmelnik emphasizes that Israel’s missile-defense systems, which were built in coordination with the U.S., are capable of withstanding Iranian attacks. “The Iranian missile threat can be countered, and our second-strike capability is very significant. Israel has the upper hand in that respect,” she says. “That’s why Iran is cautious – it has more to lose than to gain.”

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IRAN WARNS OF ‘DECISIVE RESPONSE’ IF ISRAEL CROSSES ‘RED LINES’ 

Iron Dome was first deployed in 2011, following years of development in response to the growing threat of rocket fire from Gaza.

Iron Dome was first deployed in 2011, following years of development in response to the growing threat of rocket fire from Gaza. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit.)

Iron Dome was first deployed in 2011, following years of development in response to the growing threat of rocket fire from Gaza. What sets the system apart, Haddad Chmelnik says, is its innovation and simplicity. “It’s a brilliant technology that no other country has. Iron Dome was developed with the support of the U.S., and now we’re seeing other nations buying it for their own defense.”

Indeed, the success of Iron Dome has attracted international attention. Countries such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Finland have purchased Iron Dome components or batteries. “Israel is the most protected country in the world when it comes to air defense,” Haddad Chmelnik explains. “Now, we are seeing countries across the globe investing in it.”

Israel Air Force Reserve Brig. Gen. Doron Gavish, former commander of Israel’s Air Defense Corps, recalls the initial skepticism surrounding the project. “Before Iron Dome, we had no real answer to these types of rockets,” he says. “People doubted we could create an effective, cost-efficient interceptor. But the system has proven itself over the years. Iron Dome has intercepted thousands of rockets.”

Katzrin Golan Heights Israel Labanon

An Israeli man works next to a destroyed home after rockets fired by Hezbollah terrorists struck in Katzrin, in the Golan Heights, Aug. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

Each Iron Dome interceptor missile costs around $50,000, while some of the rockets it is designed to destroy, such as those made by Hamas, can cost just a few hundred dollars. The cost of maintaining one Iron Dome battery, which requires dozens of soldiers to operate, is about $100 million. Currently, there are approximately 12 Iron Dome batteries spread out across the country, each capable of defending up to 60 square miles, providing vital coverage in strategic areas.

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WHAT IS ISRAEL’S FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE, THE IRON DOME?

Half of Iron Dome operators are women, who agree to extend their service to three years – the same as is mandatory for men – to accommodate the long period of training. “The experience these soldiers have gained under fire is invaluable. But the pressure is enormous,” Brig. Gen. Gavish says. “It’s not like a video game. You’re making real-time decisions on which rockets to intercept. These soldiers know they’re protecting their families, their cities – sometimes even their own homes.”

But the current conflict, which has seen more than 20,000 rockets fired from Gaza and Lebanon since October 2023, has pushed the system, and its operators, to their limits. “When we designed Iron Dome, we never imagined it would have to function under such continuous strain,” Haddad Chmelnik says. “The system was built for short, intense bursts of fighting – not for a war that lasts nearly a year.”

Iran ballistic missile system

Iran presents its first hypersonic ballistic missile  in Tehran on June 6, 2023. (Sepah News/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

In recent months, some enemy rockets have slipped past the defenses, causing destruction in northern Israel. “No system is hermetic,” Gavish says. “There is no perfect defense. The reality is, the longer the war continues, the more pressure the system is put under.”

Meanwhile, the enemy is learning. “Every time Iron Dome successfully intercepts a rocket, our enemies are watching, learning and adapting,” Haddad Chmelnik says. “That’s why we see more complex threats emerging, like UAVs, and drones, which are harder to intercept.”

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While Iron Dome remains effective, the future is uncertain. “The system is saving lives every day,” Brig. Gen. Gavish says. “But as the war goes on, it becomes harder and harder to maintain the same level of defense.”

Iron Dome battery

A member of Israel’s Air Force technical corps stands by an Iron Dome battery.

Despite these successes, Haddad Chmelnik points out that no defense system is foolproof. “The way Iron Dome is built, it’s about more than just about identifying individual threats; it’s about adapting quickly as those threats evolve.” She emphasizes that while Iron Dome continues to play a crucial role, Israel’s long-term security will depend on continued technological advancements.

Despite the challenges they face in the current situation, those operating Iron Dome continue their mission. “The soldiers – men and women – are making complex decisions in real-time, protecting cities and families,” Brig. Gen. Gavish says, “They are the key to Iron Dome’s success.”

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Palestinian journalist, 19, killed in Israeli raid after receiving threats

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Palestinian journalist, 19, killed in Israeli raid after receiving threats

Hassan Hamad was killed in an attack on his home in Jabalia camp, taking the total number of journalists killed to 175.

Israeli forces have killed Palestinian journalist Hassan Hamad in an air strike on his home in northern Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, days after the slain journalist said he was warned by an Israeli officer to stop filming in Gaza.

With the killing of the 19-year-old journalist, whose work appeared on Al Jazeera and other networks, the number of Palestinian journalists killed since the war began has risen to 175, according to Gaza’s Government Media Office. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) says at least 128 journalists and media workers are among the more than 41,000 people killed since Israel launched the devastating war on Gaza in October 2023.

Colleagues and the Government’s Media Office in Gaza confirmed Hamad’s death, saying the journalist’s home was deliberately attacked to silence him after he received threats.

“Hassan Hamad, the journalist who did not live past the age of 20, resisted for a full year in his own way. He resisted by staying away from his family so they wouldn’t be targeted. He resisted when he struggled to find an internet signal, sitting for an hour or two on the rooftop just to send the videos that reach you in seconds,” a post on Hamad’s X account posted by his colleague said.

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“At 6am (03:00 GMT), he called me to send his last video. After a call that didn’t last more than a few seconds, he said, ‘There they are, there they are, it’s done,’ and hung up,” the colleague added.

Hamad had been documenting Israel’s war in Gaza for more than a year and worked as a freelance TV reporter.

According to Palestinian journalist Maha Hussaini, a few days before Hamad’s death, he had been threatened by an Israeli officer through a Whatsapp message and several calls, ordering him to stop filming in Gaza.

“‘Listen, If you continue spreading lies about Israel, we’ll come for you next and turn your family into […] This is your last warning’…” Hussaini posted on X, sharing the message Hamad had received.

The Israeli government has not yet commented on his death.

“Every time a journalist is killed, injured, arrested, or forced to go to exile, we lose fragments of the truth,” CPJ Program Director Carlos Martinez de la Serna said in a statement on Friday.

“Those responsible for these casualties face dual trials: one under international law and another before history’s unforgiving gaze,” he added.

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