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Home Insurance Rates in America Are Wildly Distorted. Here’s Why.

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Home Insurance Rates in America Are Wildly Distorted. Here’s Why.

Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024)

Note: State average is shown in counties with few or no observations.

Enid, Okla., surrounded by farms about 90 minutes north of Oklahoma City, has an unwelcome distinction: Home insurance is more expensive, relative to home values, than almost anywhere else in the country.

Enid is hardly the American community that is most vulnerable to damaging weather. Yet as a share of home prices, insurance costs more in parts of Enid than in New Orleans, much of which is below sea level. More than in Paradise, Calif., which was destroyed by the Camp fire in 2018. More than in the Florida Keys, which are frequently wracked by hurricanes. Even more than in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where houses have begun slipping into the rising sea.

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Enid’s plight reveals an odd distortion in America’s system of pricing home insurance. As a warming planet delivers increasingly damaging weather, the cost of home insurance has jumped drastically. But companies are charging some people, especially in the middle of the country and parts of the southeast, far more than other homeowners with similar levels of risk, an examination by The New York Times has shown.

Explore home insurance costs in your area with our interactive map.

Industry experts offer several reasons for the disparities, including the fact rural states have fewer homeowners to share risk, and states have varying rates of insurance fraud, which can drive up premiums.

But new research points to a striking pattern: Higher premiums are being charged in states where regulators apply less scrutiny to requests for rate increases, compared with states where officials question the justifications offered by companies and try to keep rates low, the data show.

The analysis is based on new data that make it possible for the first time to see what households pay for home insurance by county and ZIP code, across the United States. The average premium jumped 33 percent between 2020 and 2023, far more than the rate of inflation, the data show. But in some places, homeowners are paying more than twice as much for insurance, as a share of home value, than people who live elsewhere and face similar exposure to severe weather.

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Sources: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024); Zillow; FEMA; First Street Foundation.

Note: “Average premium as a share of home value” compares median home insurance premium in 2023 to Zillow’s typical home value estimate in each county. State average shown in counties with few or no observations.

As a result, America’s home insurance market is increasingly distorted, said Ishita Sen, a professor of finance at Harvard Business School who studies why insurance rates diverge from risk.

In communities where insurance rates exceed the actual risk, home ownership can be unaffordable. And in places where insurance prices are too low, it encourages people to move into homes in areas likely to be hit by wildfires or other disasters that could deliver financial ruin, Dr. Sen said.

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The market is “incentivizing all sorts of crazy behavior,” she said.

Getting a detailed look at the cost of insurance in different parts of the United States has been almost impossible until now because private insurers don’t publicly disclose what they charge. But two researchers, Benjamin Keys, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and Philip Mulder, a professor at the University of Wisconsin School of Business, found a workaround.

Homeowners often pay their insurance premiums together with their mortgage and property tax, through an escrow account. They make a single payment every month to a mortgage service company, which then pays the mortgage lender, the local government and the insurance company. The system is designed to ensure homeowners never miss a payment.

Working with CoreLogic, a property information and analytics company that collects data from mortgage servicers, the researchers obtained data for about 12.4 million of the nation’s roughly 80 million owner-occupied households. That data showed how much those households paid in escrow annually from 2014 through 2023. After deducting payments for mortgages, property tax and other fees, they could estimate what each household paid for property insurance.

Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024)

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Note: Inflation-adjusted. Each line depicts the median of all loan observations within a risk group.

There is certainly a relationship between climate risk and what insurance companies charge for coverage in case of damage from extreme weather. But all kinds of other factors get in the way, causing a misalignment between risk and premiums.

In McCurtain County, Okla., for example, the typical homeowner paid an average of $2,837 for insurance. But in the same area with the same weather just across the state line, the average homeowner in Little River County, Ark., paid $1,673.

The cost of insurance is often higher for large, expensive homes because they cost more to replace. To get more accurate comparisons, Dr. Keys and Dr. Mulder looked at insurance costs as a share of the typical local home value.

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Across the more than 9,000 ZIP codes for which data was available, the typical American household last year paid about $500 in home insurance premiums for every $100,000 of home value, or 0.5 percent, the professors found.

But in California, which suffered through more than 7,000 wildfires last year, the typical homeowner in many ZIP codes paid premiums as low as .05 percent of home value. By contrast, in parts of Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas, the average homeowner faced home insurance premiums greater than 2 percent of the value of local homes.

“Families with the same level of risk exposure pay wildly different amounts to protect themselves from harm,” Dr. Keys said. “Different prices for the same risk feels unfair.”

A visitor to Enid, population 50,000, would not recognize it as the riskiest spot in America to own a house. At the center of town is the Garfield County Courthouse, a handsome Art Deco structure built during the Great Depression, surrounded by a wide and inviting lawn. The square is ringed by storefronts offering cannabis, legal services and $500 cowboy boots.

The federal government designates Garfield County, which includes Enid and sometimes suffers hail storms and tornadoes, as having a “relatively low” level of risk. Yet the typical Enid homeowner spent $2,113 on home insurance last year, according to the researchers. That was 3.5 percent of the average home value of about $60,000 — more than six times the national average.

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That high cost is taking its toll.

In 2019, Kelsey Keyworth bought her first house, a handsome pale-gray bungalow with a wood deck and white trim. She hoped to stay in the house until her son, who is now 13, finished high school. But despite never filing an insurance claim, her premiums jumped by 42 percent over three years. Ms. Keyworth, the membership director at Enid’s YMCA, decided to sell and move with her son into a rental home.

“It’s kind of heartbreaking,” Ms. Keyworth said on a recent afternoon at a coffee shop in Enid. “You’re like, gosh, I tried so hard to get here.”

Torrie Vann, the real estate agent who sold Ms. Keyworth’s house, said that since February, other clients had sold their homes because of rising insurance premiums. “They’re having to sell and buy something smaller,” she said.

Kelsey Keyworth in Champlin Park in Enid.

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Megann Johnson, agent and owner of Great Plains Insurance.

Home buyers, meanwhile, are reacting to rising premiums in Enid by settling for smaller houses than they planned, according to Jeff Shaffer, another Realtor in town. “People are having to buy down,” he said. “There’s a lot of sticker shock.”

Oklahoma is the sixth-most expensive state for home insurance. (The top five are Florida, New York, Louisiana, Colorado and Hawaii.) But measured as a share of home value, Oklahoma ranks third, behind Louisiana and Mississippi.

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Along the edges of Oklahoma, the premium paid by the typical household last year was as much as 70 percent higher than in adjacent counties in Texas, Arkansas and Kansas — despite those counties having similar levels of exposure to disasters, according to federal data.

Megann Johnson is an insurance agent in Enid whose own home insurance premiums almost doubled, to $4,860 this year from $2,570 in 2021. She says her aunts, who sell insurance in nearby Kansas, tease her about what they call Oklahoma’s “stupid” high rates. “Our risk is the same, right?” Ms. Johnson said. “We’re 50 miles from the state line.”

Glen W. Mulready, Oklahoma’s elected insurance commissioner, has never exercised his power to deny a rate increase requested by an insurance company for home insurance. He said he believed that competition, not regulation, was the best way to hold down prices.

But that could be one important reason why Oklahoma homeowners with relatively low risk are paying high premiums, according to Dr. Sen.

In states where officials tightly control what insurance companies can charge, premiums tend to be priced below what they would be if they reflected the true likelihood of damage from storms, fires or other catastrophes, she and her co-authors found.

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Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024)

Note: “High regulation” and “lower regulation” categories from Oh, Sen and Tenekedjieva, Harvard Business School working paper (2022).

And Dr. Sen and her colleagues discovered something else.

After big losses in those tightly regulated states, such as California, national insurers tend to raise rates in more loosely regulated states. In other words, homeowners in states with weaker rules may be overpaying for insurance, effectively subsidizing homeowners in states with tougher rules, she said.

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If California makes it especially hard for insurers to increase premiums, Oklahoma makes it much easier.

Mr. Mulready defended his approach, saying it’s not his role to stop private insurance companies from raising rates in Oklahoma.

“We allow the competitive free market to work,” he said in an interview. If national companies raised rates in Oklahoma to make up losses in states like California, they would lose business to local insurers, Mr. Mulready said.

But Dr. Sen said her research suggests the home insurance market is far less competitive than it might seem. After choosing an insurer, people often stick with that same company, even if their premiums go up, she said.

Three insurers — State Farm, Farmers, and Allstate — collectively wrote more than half of all home insurance in Oklahoma last year. A spokesman for Allstate, Michael Passman, said in a statement that “we do not raise rates in one state to offset losses in another.” State Farm and Farmers did not respond to questions. Allstate is publicly traded; State Farm and Farmers are not. (Farmers’ parent company, Zurich Insurance Group, is traded on the Swiss exchange.)

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Allstate and State Farm reported a profit in their life insurance divisions last year but losses in property and casualty insurance left them in the red companywide, according to AM Best, a company that rates the financial strength of insurers. Farmers also lost money in its property and casualty insurance operations, which include home insurance, but it’s not clear if its overall business turned a profit.

Homes in Enid. Oklahoma’s current insurance commissioner has never blocked an insurers’ rate increase.

There are some other possible explanations for why insurance companies charge wildly different rates in places facing similar threats.

Insurance can be more expensive in smaller, more rural states, where there are fewer households to share the risk, said Karen Collins, a vice president at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, which represents insurance companies. Some states require higher minimum levels of coverage, which makes policies more expensive. And fraudulent claims, which end up increasing premium costs, can be more prevalent in some locations than others, she said.

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Reinsurance is another reason. The price of reinsurance (effectively, insurance purchased by insurance companies to make sure they can cover losses) has spiked in recent years. Companies buy different amounts in different parts of the country and pass those costs onto homeowners.

A fourth factor is whether a state has a government-mandated, high-risk pool of insurance designed for homeowners who cannot find private coverage. Research suggests those pools, which are available in about two-thirds of states, can lower private insurance premiums. Oklahoma has no such risk pool, though creating one would “certainly pull down rates,” Mr. Mulready said. The question for lawmakers, he added, is “whether that’s the role of government.”

Explaining the distortions in the insurance market is perhaps easier than fixing them.

United Policyholders, a nonprofit group that advocates for consumers, said the fact that some households pay more for insurance than others, despite having the same level of risk, underlined the need for regulators to demand more transparency about how insurers set rates.

That discrepancy in rates “is certainly not fair,” said Emily Rogan, a senior program officer at United Policyholders. She said customers need to know what data insurers collect on them, so that they have the opportunity to contest information that may be inaccurate.

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Forrest Bennett is an insurance agent in Oklahoma City and a Democratic state lawmaker. He said the challenge his state faced was how to protect the average homeowner from high premiums without causing insurers to flee because they can’t turn a profit, as has happened in California.

Mr. Bennett praised a new state program that gives homeowners money to install hail-resistant roofs, which he hopes will lower premiums. But he said enacting broader reforms to address the cost of disasters “requires people to accept that climate change is real.”

The rising cost of home insurance is “where climate change meets the average American’s pocketbook,” Mr. Bennett said. “We are trending toward a place where it’s not sustainable.”

Covington, Okla., just south of Enid. Oklahoma is one of the most expensive states for home insurance.

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Last fall, the Senate Budget Committee began investigating rising insurance rates and how underwriters are responding to the growing dangers of extreme weather.

“Climate havoc” is pushing up insurance costs and risks upending “housing markets, mortgage markets, and local property tax bases, and spilling out into the broader economy,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Democrat of Rhode Island and the committee’s chairman, said at a hearing on the issue in June. He warned that climate change threatens the stability of the insurance market and, by extension, the economy, in a way that “sounds eerily reminiscent of the run-up to the mortgage meltdown of 2008.”

And even in places where insurance costs remain relatively flat, the disconnect between premiums and actual risk is cause for concern, Dr. Keys said. As climate change gets worse, those insurance costs will eventually rise, and possibly quickly, he said — hurting home values, shocking some homeowners and destabilizing real estate.

“I personally think we’re in a lot of trouble,” Dr. Keys said. “This should be ringing alarm bells for housing markets all over the country.”

Edited by Lyndsey Layton and Douglas Alteen

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Additional visual editing: Claire O’Neill and Matt McCann

Methodology

Home insurance cost map: Keys and Mulder calculated annual homeowners insurance costs by separating mortgage and tax payments from loan-level escrow data obtained from CoreLogic. Households whose payments were captured by CoreLogic were not necessarily present in all years of data from 2014 to 2023.

Climate risk map vs. insurance costs as a share of home value map: Risk percentiles are based on a combination of FEMA’s National Risk Index expected annual loss rates per dollar of building value for hail, heat and cold waves, ice storms, lightning, strong winds, tornadoes, volcanic activity and winter weather. Wildfire and hurricane risk data came from First Street Foundation, which separates flood risk out of their hurricane risk score. Flooding is typically covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and less likely to be reflected in the escrow-based data.

State regulation charts: Risk scores use the composite FEMA and First Street Foundation risk scores. Categorization of “high regulation” and “low regulation” states come from analysis of requested and approved rate filings from Oh, Sen and Tenekedjieva (2022), where “lower regulation” includes both low and medium friction states. Regulation analysis was conducted on rate filing requests from 2009 to 2019. The charts use a loess regression to visualize the overall trend.

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“High regulation” states include California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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EU Commission examines childlike sexual images created by Musk’s AI

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EU Commission examines childlike sexual images created by Musk’s AI

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The European Commission has announced it is looking into cases of sexually suggestive and explicit images of young girls generated by Grok, the AI chatbot integrated into social media platform X, following the introduction of a paid feature known as “Spicy Mode” last summer.

“I can confirm from this podium that the Commission is also very seriously looking into this matter,” a Commission spokesperson told journalists in Brussels on Monday.

“This is not ‘spicy’. This is illegal. This is appalling. This is disgusting. This has no place in Europe.”

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On Sunday, in response to growing anger and alarm at the images, the social media platform said the images had been removed from the platform and that the users involved had been banned.

“We take action against illegal content on X, including Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM), by removing it, permanently suspending accounts, and working with local governments and law enforcement as necessary,” the X Safety account posted.

Similar investigations have been opened in France, Malaysia and India.

The European Commission also referenced an episode last November in which Grok generated Holocaust denial content. The Commission said it had sent a request for information under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), and that it is now analysing the response.

In December, X was fined €120 million under the DSA over its handling of account verification check marks and its advertising policy.

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“I think X is very well aware that we are very serious about DSA enforcement. They will remember the fine that they have received from us,” said the EU Commission spokesperson.

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The most interesting tech AP saw on Day 1 of CES

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The most interesting tech AP saw on Day 1 of CES

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Sure, Nvidia, AMD and Intel all had important chip and AI platform announcements on the first day of CES 2026, but all audiences wanted to see more of was Star Wars and Jensen Huang’s little robot buddies.

CES is a huge opportunity annually for companies both large and small to parade products they plan to put on shelves this year. And, as predicted, artificial intelligence was anchored in nearly everything as tech firms continue to look for AI products that will attract customers.

AP has been on the ground looking at booths and covering big announcements, here is a roundup of the highlights we saw on the first day of CES.

Nvidia gets physical

The biggest buzzword in the air at CES is “physical AI,” Nvidia’s term for AI models that are trained in a virtual environment using computer generated, “synthetic” data, then deployed as physical machines once they’ve mastered their purpose.

CEO Jensen Huang showed off Cosmos, an AI foundation model trained on massive datasets, capable of simulating environments governed by actual physics. He also announced Alpamayo, an AI model specifically designed for autonomous driving. Huang revealed that Nvidia’s next generation AI superchip platform, dubbed Vera Rubin, is in full production, and that Nvidia has a new partnership with Siemens. All of this shows Nvidia is going to fight increased competition to retain its reputation as the backbone of the AI industry.

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But once Huang called for two little, waddling, chirping robots to join him on stage, that’s all the audience wanted to see more of.

The chips are back in town

AMD CEO Lisa Su announced a new line of its famed Ryzen AI processors as the company continues to expand its footprint in the world of AI-powered personal computers.

For gamers, AMD also showed off the latest version of its gaming-focused processor, the AMD Ryzen 7 9850X3D.

Meanwhile, Intel announced its new AI chip for laptops, Panther Lake (also known as the Intel Core Ultra Series 3), and said the company has plans to launch a new platform to address a growing market for handheld video gaming machines.

Intel, a Silicon Valley pioneer that enjoyed decades of growth as its processors powered the personal computer boom, fell into a slump after missing the shift to the mobile computing era unleashed by the iPhone. It fell further behind after the AI boom propelled Nvidia into the spotlight.

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President Donald Trump’s administration stepped in recently to secure a 10% stake in the company, making the government one of Intel’s biggest shareholders. Federal officials said they invested in Intel to support U.S. technology and domestic manufacturing.

Uber dives back into the robotaxi game

Uber is giving the public a first look at their robotaxi at this CES this week. Uber, along with luxury electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Motors and vehicle tech company Nuro, introduced an autonomous vehicle with an Uber-designed in-cabin experience.

Uber calls it the most luxurious robotaxi yet. It features cameras, sensors and radars that provide 360-degree perception and a low-profile roof “halo” with integrated LEDs that will display riders’ initials to help them spot their car and track their ride status. Inside, riders can personalize everything from climate and seat heating to music, while real-time visuals show exactly what the vehicle is seeing on the road and the route it plans to take.

Autonomous on-road testing began last month in San Francisco, led by Nuro, marking a major step toward what the companies said is a planned launch before the end of the year.

Star Wars and Lego announce new a partnership

When Lucasfilm chief creative officer David Filoni brought out an array of X-Wing pilots, Chewbacca, R2D2 and C-3PO, he won the Star Wars fandom for Lego.

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Lego announced its Lego Smart Play platform on Monday, which introduces new smart bricks, tags and special minifigs for your collection. The new bricks contain sensors that enable them to sense light and distance, and to provide an array of responses, essentially lights and sounds, when they are used in unison.

Combine this with a newly announced partnership with the Star Wars franchise and now you can create your own interactive space battles and light-saber duels.

LG reveals a new robot to help around the home

File this one under intrigued, for now.

The Korean tech giant gave the media a glimpse Monday of its humanoid robot that is designed to handle household chores such as folding laundry and fetching food. Although many companies have robots on display at CES, LG certainly is one of the biggest tech companies to promise to put a service robot in homes.

It will be on display — and we assume demonstrating some of its purported abilities — beginning Tuesday, so we’ll have more to report soon.

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What’s new with lollipops?

Music you can taste was on display Monday at CES: Lollipop Star unveiled a candy that plays music while you eat it. The company says it uses something called “bone induction technology,” which lets you hear songs — like tracks from Ice Spice and Akon — through the lollipop as you lick it or bite it in the back of your mouth, according to spokesperson Cassie Lawrence.

The musical lollipops will go on sale after CES on Lollipop Star’s website for $8.99 each. And if that wasn’t enough star power, Akon was expected to visit the company’s booth Tuesday when CES opens to the public.

Atlas holds up Hyundai’s (manufacturing) world

Hyundai-owned Boston Dynamics publicly demonstrated its humanoid robot Atlas for the first time at the CES tech showcase, ratcheting up a competition with Tesla and other rivals to build robots that look like people and do things that people do.

The company said a version of the robot that will help assemble cars is already in production and will be deployed by 2028 at Hyundai’s electric vehicle manufacturing facility near Savannah, Georgia.

Delta gets spherical

Delta Air Lines is taking entertainment to new heights as the “official airline” of the Sphere in Las Vegas. The airline announced a new multiyear partnership with Sphere Entertainment Co. that it says will deliver premium experiences to the venue, including a Delta SKY360° Club lounge.

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The carrier said SkyMiles members can unlock exclusive access to other experiences at the Sphere, starting during the final weekend of the Backstreet Boys’ residency in February with features including private suite seating, food and beverages. The partnership brings Delta branding to the Sphere’s massive exterior LED screen. Delta says more exclusive SkyMiles experiences will roll out in 2026 and beyond.

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Iran offers citizens $7 monthly payments as protests spiral over economic crisis: report

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Iran offers citizens  monthly payments as protests spiral over economic crisis: report

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Iran’s government has said its citizens will be given a monthly payment equivalent to about $7 to ease economic pressures as protests spread across the country, according to reports.

The announcement was reported to have been made on Monday by the government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, on Iranian State TV.

She said the measure was aimed at “preserving households” purchasing power, controlling inflation and ensuring food security,” per The New York Times.

The outlet also said the plan represents a shift away from long-standing import subsidies toward direct assistance for citizens.

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IRAN CRACKDOWN RATTLES MIDDLE EAST AS ANALYSTS WEIGH US OPTIONS SHORT OF MILITARY INTERVENTION

A protester faces Iranian security forces during clashes amid nationwide unrest, according to images released by the Iranian opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran. (NCRI )

Under the proposal, roughly $10 billion that had been spent each year to subsidize certain imports, will now be given directly to the public.

Eligible Iranians will get one million Iranian tomans, which is around $7, and in the form of credit that can be used to buy goods.

The labor minister said the payments would be handed out to about 80 million people, which is the majority of Iran’s population.

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PROTESTS SPREAD ACROSS IRAN AS REGIME THREATENS US FORCES AS ‘LEGITIMATE TARGETS’ AFTER TRUMP WARNING

Protesters march in downtown Tehran, Iran, Monday, Dec. 29, 2025.  (Fars News Agency via AP)

Iran’s economy has been hit by sanctions and declining oil revenues which have led to protests.

The currency has lost more than half its value against the U.S. dollar.

The Statistical Center of Iran, a state-run body under Iran’s regime, reported in December that the average annual inflation rate also reached 42.2%, according to reports.

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The payments were announced amid widespread protests that included merchants, traders and university students, according to the Times. Marketplaces have been shut down and rallies have been held on campuses.

IRAN’S KHAMENEI LASHES OUT AT PROTESTERS AS NATIONWIDE ANTI-REGIME UNREST GROWS

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pictured sitting next to a senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)

As previously reported by Fox News Digital, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), the intensity of the protests has reached at least 78 cities and 222 locations.

Protesters have been demanding the end of the regime controlled by the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

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The group said the regime has killed at least 20 people, including three children, and arrested 990 people. Khamenei’s security forces have detained more than 40 children, HRAI noted.

Fox News Digital’s Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report.

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