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Here's why a flare-up between India and Pakistan over Kashmir matters

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Here's why a flare-up between India and Pakistan over Kashmir matters

India and Pakistan have intensified their hostilities over the hotly contested Kashmir region following a massacre of 26 mostly Indian tourists, which New Delhi linked to Pakistan.

Pakistan denies it was behind Tuesday’s attack by gunmen on a group of tourists in Kashmir. Both sides have since escalated the tensions by exchanging diplomatic and trade sanctions against each other and raising fears of a military conflict.

INDIA VOWS TO HUNT TERRORISTS ‘TO THE ENDS OF THE EARTH’ AS TENSIONS WITH PAKISTAN RISE AFTER KASHMIR ATTACK

Here are five reasons why a flare-up between India and Pakistan matters:

The Kashmir attack could lead to an armed conflict between 2 neighbors

Under intense domestic pressure, India has hinted at the possibility of a limited military strike on Pakistan in response to what it called the “terror attack” with “cross-border links.” Pakistan has made it clear that it will respond militarily to an attack.

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This raises fears that an escalation by any one side could lead to a wider war. The last time the two nations came to blows was in 2019, when a suicide car bombing killed 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir.

In 2021, the sides renewed a ceasefire agreement along their border, which has largely held. That relative calm was broken on Thursday after a brief exchange of fire between their armies.

Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint between the archrivals

Both India and Pakistan are armed with nuclear weapons. There are fears that any conventional war or skirmish between them could potentially turn into a nuclear exchange.

India and Pakistan fought two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, but in 1974, India conducted its first nuclear tests, raising the stakes in any military conflict. It triggered a nuclear race and Pakistan reached that same milestone in 1998.

Kashmiri villager women walk past the blown-up family home of Asif Shiekh, a militant who officials say is involved in the deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, at Monghama village in Tral, south of Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, Friday.  (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)

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Since then, India and Pakistan have had one major border skirmish in 1999 that killed at least 1,000 combatants. The fighting only stopped after the U.S. intervened.

A conflict could bring in China

India and China are geopolitical rivals whose armies clashed along the disputed Himalayan border in 2020. Ties between the Asian giants have improved since, but they still maintain large numbers of troops on their borders. Their borders are also contiguous to Pakistan’s, making it the world’s only three-way nuclear junction.

Beijing also controls a part of the Kashmir region that New Delhi says belongs to India.

On the other hand, China is also a main ally of Pakistan and has helped advance its missile programs, creating additional military concerns for New Delhi. Meanwhile, India maintains strong defense ties with the U.S., which has long sought to limit Beijing’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region.

Experts say any conflict between India and Pakistan is unlikely to stay strictly between them, as their strategic partners are likely to get involved.

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Kashmir tensions can lead to a war over water

In response to the massacre, India suspended a crucial treaty that governs the flow of river waters into Pakistan. Pakistan said it would consider any attempt to stop the flow of water from India an “act of war.”

Under the Indus Water treaty, India is obliged to let six rivers flow freely to Pakistan. If India follows through and restricts the flow, it could have a devastating impact on Pakistan’s agriculture as it battles acute water shortages.

It’s also a major environmental issue. Water insecurity is a big concern in both India and Pakistan due to rapidly growing populations and climate change.

Attacks by militants and rights abuses in Kashmir test world’s response

 

Rights groups — including the U.N. — have blamed New Delhi for rights violations, including civilian killings and arbitrary arrests, in Indian-controlled Kashmir as a result of an intense crackdown by Indian forces. It has hurt India’s human rights record and raised concerns that global powers are not doing enough to pressure New Delhi and hold it accountable.

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Militants fighting against Indian rule have also killed scores of civilians, including Hindu pilgrims.

India has used military response against militants as part of its efforts to eradicate “terrorism,” saying it threatens regional stability.

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‘Sentimental Value’ Writing Duo Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt Still ‘Keep the Marriage Happy’: ‘He’s My Longest Relationship’

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‘Sentimental Value’ Writing Duo Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt Still ‘Keep the Marriage Happy’: ‘He’s My Longest Relationship’

It wasn’t love at first sight for longtime collaborators Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, who met when they were both in their late teens.

“We were both camera assistants, taking care of the cables on a quiz show in Norway. Joachim was still skating and wearing the biggest pants I’d ever seen. They were as wide as they were tall. I was the black jeans and Dr. Martens type, so I was skeptical,” laughs Vogt, who co-wrote “Sentimental Value” with Trier.

Then they started talking about films. 

“Suddenly, there was someone who’s seen more Fellini films than I had, and I had Hal Hartley films on VHS he wanted to borrow. This was the first time I met someone who shared my dream of making films, and that made the dream more tangible and real,” says Vogt.

Six features later, they are much more similar now, says Trier. Their way of working hasn’t really changed — they still start with ideas and develop the plot later on. 

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“We know it would be easier the other way around, but we still think of the plot quite late. Instead, we put notes up on the board and say: ‘Oh, I love this scene.’ And then we try to keep most of our darlings,” explains Vogt. 

Trier agrees: “We don’t construct the story until very late. Instead of having scenes I don’t want to shoot and we don’t want to write, we try to make sure none of them just ‘tells the story.’ They all have to be about the characters or [present us] with an exciting visual situation.”

“We still have a phase when we entertain a lot of ideas, but we come to the core of it quicker now. I think we’re more honest with ourselves — and about what we want. We also have this silly rule that we shouldn’t think too much about production limitations and money when we write. When I become the director again, it bites me in the ass.”

How do they keep it fresh? 

“I think we don’t,” laughs Vogt. 

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“There’s a lot of stuff going on when you make and release films, and we both like to go back to that safe space and rediscover that calm where it’s just our two voices. We are fortunate enough that our films generate more and more noise that we have to shut out, so when we work, we make it personal and small again.”

Following the success of 2021’s “The Worst Person in the World,” which earned them an Academy Award nomination for original screenplay — it also scored an Oscar nomination for international feature — expectations were high. Then again, they always are. 

“Every film feels like that. The first one, ‘Reprise,’ was quite successful, so ‘Oslo, August 31st’ was made out of panic: ‘Let’s do what we want now, before we don’t sell out’,” says Trier with a laugh. “’Worst Person’ was this fun film that generated a lot of attention and we knew we were going to put [“Sentimental Value”’”] into a climate of expectation. We used that panic and that energy to go deep into something we cared about.” 

In the film, which scored Grand Prix at Cannes, two sisters reunite with their absentee father, a movie director who wants to make a film about their family. It stars Stellan Skarsgård, “Worst Person” breakout star Renate Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, who seems to be on the same trajectory as Reinsve in terms of global recognition for her performance.

“A few months into that process, we thought: ‘We’re going to lose some of the people who loved ‘Worst Person’ for being so young and exuberant,’” says Vogt. Fast forward to November and the film is being embraced by an even younger audience and “spreading on TikTok,” says Trier with a hint of irony.  

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Their friendship allows them to get “very intimate and very personal super quickly” when they write. 

“When I write alone, I procrastinate. When I’m procrastinating with Joachim, even if I haven’t done anything, at least I got to spend a day with my friend,” says Vogt. Trier adds: “It took me a long time to create a real family outside of art. I have one now, but Eskil is my longest relationship outside of my parents. We don’t need to be silly romantic about it, but we have to be honest: it’s a real gift.”

Trier continues: “If you look at our filmography, it becomes apparent we’ve been tracing the development of our life stages. I don’t think we could have made ‘Sentimental Value’ earlier in our collaboration.”

They say their relationship is “like every old marriage,” but having an open relationship isn’t an option just yet.

“I think we get enough excitement with other collaborators to keep the marriage happy,” says Trier.

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“Eskil has always told me: ‘If you want to write with someone else, it’s OK’ We have those tough conversations, but it just hasn’t happened yet. I still call him during the shoot, so he’s used to me working with others and doing my own thing, and he allows that. I’m also happy to see Eskil making his own films without me at all.” 

Vogt, who directed “The Innocents,” adds: “Maybe it would be interesting for you to make a film without me involved…” 

“…And see how shitty I really am,” deadpans Trier. “I come from a family of artists — I love the team thing. Eskil can write alone — I would hate that. We get annoyed with each other, but that’s life: there’s still love at the end of the day. So, you know, touch wood. I hope it continues.”

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Russia warns Western forces in Ukraine would be considered ‘legitimate combat targets’

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Russia warns Western forces in Ukraine would be considered ‘legitimate combat targets’

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Russia on Thursday warned that any Western military forces deployed to Ukraine under a post-war security arrangement would be considered “legitimate combat targets,” sharply criticizing a newly signed Paris declaration outlining security guarantees for Kyiv.

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In a statement posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Telegram channel, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the declaration, backed by Ukraine, the United States and several European countries, was not aimed at peace but at further militarizing Ukraine and escalating the conflict.

She specifically objected to provisions calling for a multinational force and continued military support for Ukraine’s armed forces, warning that any foreign troops, military infrastructure or facilities on Ukrainian territory would be viewed by Moscow as direct foreign intervention.

UKRAINE, US NEAR 20-POINT PEACE DEAL AS PUTIN SPURNS ZELENSKYY CHRISTMAS CEASEFIRE OFFER

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova attends the annual press conference held by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Jan. 14, 2025, in Moscow. (Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters)

“All such units and facilities will be considered as legitimate combat targets of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,” Zakharova said.

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“These warnings have been voiced more than once at the highest level and remain relevant.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday the U.K. and France signed a declaration of intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, including establishing military hubs and facilities to store weapons and equipment after a ceasefire.

A soldier fires a third-generation Javelin man-portable anti-tank missile system during a professional training session on Jan. 7, 2026, in Ukraine. (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

“It paves the way for the legal framework under which British, French and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil – securing Ukraine’s skies and seas – and regenerating Ukraine’s armed forces for the future,” Starmer told reporters at a press conference after the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Paris.

RUSSIA ALLEGES ATTACK ON PUTIN RESIDENCE AS UKRAINE DENIES CLAIM AHEAD OF TRUMP TALKS

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“We also have agreed [on] significant further steps. First, that we will participate in U.S.-led monitoring and verification of any ceasefire. Second, we will support the long-term provision of armaments for Ukraine’s defence. And third, we will work towards binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia,” he added.

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. businessman Jared Kushner speak at a press conference after signing a declaration at the Coalition of the Willing summit on Jan. 6, 2026, in Paris. (Ludovic Marin/Pool via Reuters)

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said on X that negotiators made significant progress on a bilateral security guarantee framework and a prosperity plan for Ukraine, calling durable security guarantees essential to a lasting peace.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said the document on security guarantees for Ukraine is essentially “ready for finalization at the highest level with the President of the United States.”

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“Complex issues from the basic framework for ending the war were also addressed, and the Ukrainian side presented possible options for finalizing this document,” he added. “We understand that the American side will engage with Russia, and we expect feedback on whether the aggressor is genuinely willing to end the war.”

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Belgium open to housing foreign prisoners in other countries, minister says

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Belgium’s Migration Minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt is looking at “every possible solution” to increase the number of irregular migrants returned from Belgium, including renting or building prison space abroad to house foreign prisoners.

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