Connect with us

World

Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling

Published

on

Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling
  • CIA produced reports highlighting Cuba’s economic collapse
  • Energy sector was portrayed in particularly dire shape
  • Trump suggested US raid in Venezuela could cause Cuba to fall
  • CIA view was inconclusive on whether economic hardship would mean collapse of the government
MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.

Sign up here.

But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.

CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP

These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”

The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.

Advertisement

Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.

Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.

ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?

Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.

But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.

The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Advertisement

One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.

Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.

OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE

Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.

Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.

Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”

Advertisement

He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.

“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.

“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”

Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Advertisement

World

Natasha Lyonne Posts Health Update Two Months After Relapse: ‘Doing a Whole Lot Better and Back on Her Feet’

Published

on

Natasha Lyonne Posts Health Update Two Months After Relapse: ‘Doing a Whole Lot Better and Back on Her Feet’

Natasha Lyonne is thanking fans for their support after she revealed in January that she had relapsed and was no longer sober. “Proud to report this kid is doing a whole lot better and back on her feet,” she wrote.

“Want to thank our recovery communities and the fans who stood by and were so supportive. Aiming to keep the journey somehow private, but look forward to sharing my experience, strength and hope as makes sense.”

Lyonne struggled with addiction to drugs and alcohol throughout the 2000s.

After attending the Sundance Film Festival in late January, the “Poker Face” star wrote that she had relapsed and then added, “Recovery is a lifelong process. Anyone out there struggling, remember you’re not alone. Grateful for love & smart feet. Gonna do it for baby Bambo. Stay honest, folks. Sick as our secrets. If no one told ya today, I love you. No matter how far down the scales we have gone, we will see how our experience may help another. Keep going, kiddos. Don’t quit before the miracle. Wallpaper your mind with love. Rest is all noise & baloney.”

Advertisement

“Poker Face” was canceled at Peacock in November, though Lyonne and producer MRC were shopping a new version that would star Peter Dinklage as the bullshit-detecting detective.

Lyonne has several feature projects in the works: She is set to write and direct the indie film “Bambo” about a New York boxing promoter and was previously set to make her directing debut with “Uncanny Valley,” produced by her AI film studio Asteria Film Co.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

World

Ukraine peace talks on ‘situational pause’ as Middle East conflict intensifies: Kremlin

Published

on

Ukraine peace talks on ‘situational pause’ as Middle East conflict intensifies: Kremlin

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Ukraine peace talks are on a “situational pause” as the Middle East conflict intensifies, the Kremlin said Thursday, even as Kyiv signaled negotiations could resume as soon as this weekend.

Following reports in Russian media that the Kremlin had paused talks on Ukraine and that the Middle East conflict could push Kyiv toward compromise, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the pause.

“This is a situational pause, for obvious reasons,” Peskov told reporters when asked about the report, according to Reuters.

Peskov added that as soon as “our American partners” could refocus on the Ukraine conflict, Moscow hopes the pause will end and new talks can begin, the outlet reported.

Advertisement

UKRAINE TO MEET TRUMP ENVOYS AHEAD OF HIGH-STAKES GENEVA TALKS WITH RUSSIA AS WAR ENTERS FIFTH YEAR

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. (Danylo Antoniuk/AP)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video posted on X that Kyiv has received signals from the U.S. that it is ready to resume talks aimed at ending the war.

“There has been a pause in the talks, and it is time to resume them,” he said. “We are doing everything to ensure that the negotiations are genuinely substantive.”

Zelenskyy added that a Ukrainian negotiating team is already on its way to the U.S. and is expected to hold meetings Saturday.

Advertisement

RUSSIA, UKRAINE TO DISCUSS TERRITORY AS TRUMP SAYS BOTH SIDES ‘WANT TO MAKE A DEAL’

Firefighters put out the fire in the ruins of an apartment building following Russia’s missile attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, March 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said the “hatred” between Russia and Ukraine was getting in the way of reaching a peace deal.

Speaking at the Shield of the Americas Summit in Doral, Florida, Trump said the “hatred between Putin and his counterpart is so great.”

“It’s so great that, you know, Ukraine, Russia, you’d think there would be a little bit of camaraderie, [but] there’s not. And the hatred is so great. It’s very hard for them to get there. It’s very, very hard to get there. So we’ll see what happens,” Trump said. “But we’ve been close a lot of times and one or the other would back out.”

Advertisement

UKRAINE’S ZELENSKYY: RUSSIA TRYING ‘TO PLAY’ GAME WITH TRUMP, STALL PEACE TALKS

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands at a news conference following a meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on December 28, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Trump’s comments came after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in January that Russia was losing between 20,000 and 25,000 troops each month in its war against Ukraine.

The pause in talks comes as Ukraine is increasingly being drawn into the wider Middle East conflict.

With the conflict in Iran now in its third week, Ukraine is providing technology and battlefield-tested tactics to counter Iranian drone attacks.

Advertisement

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

U.S. and Gulf partners have requested Ukrainian assistance, with Kyiv signaling it is prepared to share both systems and personnel to help defend against Iranian aerial threats.

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman-Diamond and Morgan Phillips contributed to this report, along with Reuters.

Continue Reading

World

‘Nobody can blackmail us’: Leaders excoriate Orbán’s veto

Published

on

‘Nobody can blackmail us’: Leaders excoriate Orbán’s veto

Fury over Viktor Orbán’s decision to veto the European Union’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine burst into the open on Thursday as leaders castigated, one by one, in the harshest terms yet, the “unacceptable” behaviour of the Hungarian prime minister.

ADVERTISEMENT


ADVERTISEMENT

The condemnation was led by António Costa, the usually mild-mannered president of the European Council, whose authority is being directly challenged by Orbán’s disruption.

“The leaders took the floor to condemn the attitude from Viktor Orbán, to remember that a deal is a deal and all the leaders need to honour that word,” Costa said at the end of the summit, venting months of frustration over the antics of the Hungarian.

“Nobody can blackmail the European Council. Nobody can blackmail the European Union institutions,” he told reporters after being questioned by Euronews, insisting that the loan will be paid out as agreed last December. Still, Orbán doubled down on his veto.

Advertisement

Separately, Costa praised Ukraine’s efforts to repair the Druzhba pipeline and allow an EU-led inspection on site in line with demands by Hungary and Slovakia just days before the summit, despite the fact that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was personally against reinstating transit of Russian oil through Ukraine as the war continues.

Orbán insists that Ukraine has purposely sabotaged the pipeline to orchestrate an energy crisis ahead of a tight election on April 12. Zelenskyy says the allegation is unfounded but has also lashed out in public at Orbán in multiple occasions.

Costa, according to a diplomat, said both must tone down the rhetoric, but also noted that Hungary is putting on the table impossible conditions, such as ensuring the safety of transit, while Russia keeps pounding Ukraine with missiles and drones.

“This is not acting in good faith, when you put a condition that neither the European Union nor the member states can ensure,” Costa said.

“Because only Russia is willing to decide if they try again to destroy the Druzhba pipeline,” he added, noting Moscow has attacked it more than 20 times since 2022.

Advertisement

“And of course, it is not the responsibility of Ukraine, the Commission, the European Council or any member state.”

In an effort to break the impasse, Brussels announced two days before the summit that Ukraine had allowed an external inspection and the EU would provide funding to fix the pipeline. But the pressure on Zelenskyy to approve the on-site mission failed to get the Hungarian leader to change his mind.

And it now poses a direct threat to the credibility of the institutions, the functioning of the EU and the top leadership from Costa to Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

On Thursday evening, von der Leyen said Hungary, alongside Slovakia and the Czech Republic, agreed at the highest political level to go ahead with the loan in December in exchange for being financially exempted.

“That condition has been fulfilled. So let us be clear about where we stand: the loan remains blocked because one leader is not honouring his word,” she said.

Advertisement

“But let me reiterate what I already said in Kyiv: we will deliver one way or the other.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also accused Orbán of an “act of serious disloyalty” that should be prevented in the future, changing voting rules if necessary.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the December deal to be respected and warned that concerns about energy security “must not be instrumentalised”.

Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson, Austria’s Christian Stocker and Belgium’s Bart De Wever were among those who criticised Orbán for exploiting the dispute with Kyiv for his re-election campaign, which has taken an explosive tone in its final stretch.

High Representative Kaja Kallas went further, questioning the motivations of the veto and the Hungarian arguments: “I guess, in the time of elections, people are not that rational.”

Advertisement

No backing down

A roundtable session described as “heated and tense” by diplomats was not enough to get Orbán to back down. If anything, he doubled down. And leaders quickly understood the veto will most certainly remain until the Hungarian elections take place.

After the summit, the Hungarian leader went a step beyond and suggested Brussels is working with Ukraine to force a pro-Brussels government in Budapest.

“The European institutions, including parts of the Commission and the European Parliament, would like to have a change of government in Hungary. And they finance it,” he said as he departed the meeting.

The accusations are not new, but they are serious as they imply political meddling. As the campaign enters its final weeks, Orbán is intensifying his attacks on his opponent, Péter Magyar, as a puppet candidate of von der Leyen and Zelenskyy.

Before leaving Brussels, he vowed to “no money for Ukraine” until the oil flows are back and claimed he “had defended the Hungarian national interest by breaking the blockade”.

Advertisement

The Hungarian veto comes at a precarious time for Europe.

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has cut off all assistance to Ukraine, leaving Europeans to pick up the tab alone.

The €90 billion loan agreed in December, following contentious talks among leaders, serves as the backbone of Ukraine’s budget needs for 2026 and 2027. Without it, Ukrainian authorities have warned they may not be able to make ends meet, and that could have serious repercussions on the battlefield.

Under the original plan, Kyiv was supposed to receive the first payment in early April to avoid a sudden cut-off in foreign assistance. But the veto, coupled with the Hungarian vote, has thrown that timeline into disarray.

Although opinion polls show Orbán trailing Magyar by double digits, he could still win as the gap narrows ahead of the vote and prolong the veto even further.

Advertisement

To make matters more difficult, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose country is also connected to Druzhba, has warned that he will continue the blockage if Orbán loses the elections and the pipeline is not repaired.

The dispute poses an exceptionally complex challenge for Brussels, which is caught between safeguarding energy security for member states and supporting Ukraine.

For António Costa, the person tasked with ensuring that decisions taken by EU leaders are upheld, Orbán’s defiance threatens to undercut his authority.

“It’s completely unacceptable what Hungary is doing,” Costa said on Thursday. “And this behaviour cannot be accepted by the leaders.”

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending