- CIA produced reports highlighting Cuba’s economic collapse
- Energy sector was portrayed in particularly dire shape
- Trump suggested US raid in Venezuela could cause Cuba to fall
- CIA view was inconclusive on whether economic hardship would mean collapse of the government
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Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling
MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.
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But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.
CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP
These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.
“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”
The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.
Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.
Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.
ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?
Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.
But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.
The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.
Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.
OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE
Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.
Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.
Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”
He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.
“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.
“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”
Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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World
Taiwan opposition leader meets Xi in Beijing as Taiwan defense fight intensifies
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KAOHSIUNG – Taiwan: For the first time in nearly a decade, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) supreme leader and the head of the communist party, Xi Jinping, held a meeting with the chairperson of Taiwan’s main opposition party. Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the Chinese Nationalist Party (also known as the Kuomintang, KMT), met Xi in Beijing on Friday.
Before their closed-door meeting the pair posed for pictures. Xi said that Taiwan is historically a part of China and remains an “inalienable” and “inseparable” part of Chinese territory. He said the “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” was a “broader trend” that will not change. China’s state-controlled media and government officials often repeat these party lines, even though, after its establishment in 1949, the communist regime has not ruled Taiwan for a single day.
The two met in their capacities as heads of their respective political parties. China refuses to speak to the democratically elected government of Taiwan, led by President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP won Taiwan’s presidential elections in 2016, 2020, and 2024, although in 2024 it narrowly lost control of the parliament to an opposition coalition led by the KMT.
TAIWAN ‘WILL NOT ESCALATE, BUT WILL NOT YIELD’ TO CHINESE INTIMIDATION, FOREIGN MINISTER WARNS
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Kuomintang (KMT) party leader Cheng Li-wun in Beijing on Friday, April 10, 2026. (Xie Huanchi/Xinhua via AP)
The meeting came as Taiwan is mired in a dispute over defense spending, with the opposition coalition blocking President Lai’s proposed $40 billion special defense budget. During a recent visit to Taipei, Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., said approval of the package would send a clear message that Taiwan is prepared to invest in its own defense and “peace through strength.”
Hours before Cheng and Xi smiled for the cameras, Lai did not directly mention the Beijing meeting, but said on social media that any compromise with an authoritarian regime would damage Taiwan’s sovereignty. There are also concerns that if the special budget isn’t approved soon, the willingness of President Donald Trump to sell weapons to Taiwan could change should Trump decide to strike some kind of deal with Xi at a possible meeting in May.
Xi’s phrase “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” which was repeated by Cheng, is a reference to the goal of China becoming a — if not the — major world power by 2049, the centennial of the founding of the communist PRC.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, center, walks before an offshore anti-terrorism drill at the Kaohsiung harbor in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, Sunday, June 8, 2025. (Chiang Ying-ying/AP)
In comments that are sure to evoke controversy in Taiwan, Cheng repeated much of Xi’s phrasing, claiming that in the more than 100 years of interactions between the KMT and the CCP, “all we ever wanted is to guide the Chinese nation out of decline and toward rejuvenation.” Cheng went on to say, “The great Chinese rejuvenation involves people on both sides of the strait. It is about the reawakening and resurgence of Chinese civilization.”
That’s not how many here in Taiwan see things. Rose Chou, 45, works as an administrator in one of the biggest primary schools in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan’s largest city and a major port. Chou told Fox News Digital it was time for Taiwan to dump any connection to being China or a part of China. “Yes, I want a Republic of Taiwan. I have an 18-year-old son. And, yes, I realize we may have to fight. I’m willing to fight.”
US LAWMAKERS WARN TAIWAN TO ‘MEET THE MOMENT’ AS CHINA STAGES INVASION-STYLE DRILLS
A screen grab captured from a video shows the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command launching large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in China on May 24, 2024. Led by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), “integrated operations inside and outside the island chain are being conducted to test the command’s capabilities to jointly take battlefield control and launch joint strikes, and to seize control of crucial areas,” Li Xi, the spokesman for the PLA Eastern Theater Command, said. (Photo by Feng Hao / PLA / China Military/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Feng Hao/PLA/China Military/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Chou readily admitted that most people she knows favor maintaining the status quo. A very small number, she said, are committed to the idea of unification — but under what terms they hope that could occur, Chou said she didn’t know.
Under the status quo that dates from the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, Taiwan’s official name remains the Republic of China, to nominally indicate that Taiwan is a part of China, just not “Red China.” This formula previously satisfied the communist regime in Beijing, but — especially since Xi Jinping’s rise — Beijing has pushed Taiwan towards outright submission.
A meeting between the head of the KMT and the CPP hasn’t happened in almost a decade, but there is precedent. A KMT chair met Xi in 2015, and again in 2016, and separately, in 2015, then-Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou met Xi in Singapore, during which each addressed the other as “Mister,” and titles used were “Leader of Taiwan” and “Leader of Mainland China,” respectively.
In a statement after the meeting, a spokesperson for the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei, said, “The United States supports cross-Strait dialogue. We expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait. Meaningful cross-Strait exchange should focus on dialogue between Beijing’s leadership and Taiwan’s democratically elected authorities without preconditions, while also including engagement with all other political parties in Taiwan.”
A nuclear-powered Type 094A Jin-class ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is seen during a military display in the South China Sea April 12, 2018. (Reuters/Stringer)
Elizabeth Freund Larus, a Taiwan Fellowship Scholar in Taipei, told Fox News Digital the KMT’s traditional China approach no longer connects with much of Taiwan’s electorate. “KMT Chair Cheng’s trip is trying to replicate Ma Ying-jeou’s approach to cross-Strait relations,” Larus said. “But that approach is 30-years old and no longer appeals to the Taiwanese. As a result, many people in Taiwan are critical of her China trip.”
Larus said Beijing is also likely to use the visit for domestic propaganda, presenting it as proof that Taiwan embraces cultural and social affinities with mainland China while casting the government in Taipei as an outlier. “Cheng may be welcomed in Beijing,” Larus said, “but her party may receive a less enthusiastic reception” in local elections later this year and in the next presidential and legislative elections in 2028.
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Taipei-based political risk analyst and Tamkang University assistant professor Ross Feingold told Fox News Digital, “President Lai’s DPP has a savvy media team, which for many years has successfully shaped public opinion towards China. Following today’s meeting, Cheng and the KMT will be portrayed as traitors willing to sell out Taiwan.”
He concluded by noting, “Ultimately, though, the success or failure of Cheng’s visit to China and meeting with Xi will be determined by Taiwan’s voters, despite efforts from China and the United States to influence events. For the Trump administration, though, its near-term priority in Taiwan remains legislative approval to purchase billions of dollars of American weapons and speedy implementation of Taiwan’s commitment to invest $250 billion in the United States.”
World
Russian propaganda unit targets Hungary’s elections
A false claim that Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar plans to bring back military conscription in Hungary has spread online and been linked by researchers to a widespread Russian disinformation campaign.
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The allegation, shared on X and Facebook alongside an image mimicking a news broadcast, claims that Magyar told voters at a campaign rally that “Hungary needs conscription to get ready for war.”
One post on X claimed that “Magyar thinks forcing 90,000 young men into army boots will solve Hungary’s problems.”
However, there is no evidence that Magyar and his pro-European Tisza party plan to introduce mandatory military conscription.
In fact, his party’s manifesto explicitly rules this out, stating that, if elected, a Tisza government “will not reintroduce conscription” either after the election or any time in the future.
The manifesto also rules out sending Hungarian troops to Ukraine or other conflicts, while calling for increased military spending and strengthened national defence. It also advocates for scaling back foreign missions that do not serve Hungary’s interests.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has echoed the claim that Magyar is pushing for forced conscription, with candidates campaigning on the premise that Tisza will embroil Hungary in the war in Ukraine, re-direct pension funds to support Kyiv and impose conscription.
There is no evidence, however, that Fidesz is behind this social media campaign.
Researchers at the Gnida Project, an open-source investigative unit which tracks Russian disinformation, have linked the theory to Storm-1516, a Russian propagandist group that spreads false claims online to further the interests of the government in Moscow.
The group was first recognised in 2023 by a group of researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina, and has since been identified in multiple election campaigns, including in the US and Germany.
Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Centre, a specialised team that detects foreign state influence operations, said in a 2024 report that the group formed part of a network of “Russian influence actors” that use synchronised techniques to try and discredit Democratic candidates in the final weeks of three US presidential campaigns.
In December 2025, the German government summoned the Russian ambassador over allegations that the group had interfered in the country’s federal elections.
Storm-1516 uses a range of tactics, including creating accounts posing as citizen journalists on YouTube and X, as well as setting up fake news websites to spread false narratives.
These well-established tactic can be seen in Hungary: in this election, Storm-1516 impersonated Euronews by creating a fake report and accompanying website that falsely claimed Magyar insulted Donald Trump at a campaign rally.
A report from the Institute of Strategic Dialogue, an independent non-profit think tank based in London, found that pro-Kremlin information operations, including Storm-1516 have increased their activity in Hungary over the past few weeks, focusing their efforts on discrediting Magyar and his party.
It found that the fake website impersonating Euronews was one of six newly created websites linked to Storm-1516 that were all registered in two weeks and spread false claims about the Hungarian opposition.
The sites shared content in both English and Hungarian, suggesting an intent to target both audiences.
Storm-1516 uses misleading Facebook ads for reach
The false claim that Magyar is planning to introduce compulsory military service also ran as two Facebook advertisements, allowing it to reach a targeted audience in Hungary beyond a regular social media post, the Gnida Project found.
One advert, featuring a photo of Magyar and a link to Tisza’s party website, carried the caption “Every 18-year-old should know: conscription is coming back.”
Together, these ads reached more than 20,000 people combined in Hungary, the majority over the age of 50.
Meta, which owns Facebook, allows advertisers to target users in specific areas or age groups for a fee. In 2025, the tech giant banned political advertisements, defined as those created by political candidates, parties or content promoting or opposing election outcomes, in response to the EU updating its political advertising rules.
The ads promoting the false claim were posted by a page listed as a beauty salon, which has since been removed. No evidence of a salon operating in Hungary under the same name could be found.
According to the Gnida Project, Facebook ads are not a common tactic for Storm-1516, but the campaign has used them in the past.
They said that Storm-1516 often relies on contractors with regional and linguistic knowledge to carry out campaigns on its behalf.
“One of the clearest examples is how almost every campaign targeting Armenia is connected to the Russian propagandist of Turkish origin, Okay Deprem, and the campaign materials are executed in a certain way unique to the targeted region,” the Gnida Project said.
“We are observing the same phenomenon with Hungary, for example, most of the video materials are executed in vertical format with relatively unusual dimensions,” it added.
From conscription to conspiracy theories
Storm-1516’s theories have ranged from implicating members of Tisza to the Epstein files and accusing Magyar of funnelling financial aid from the EU to Ukraine.
One campaign identified by the Gnida Project used a vertical video with a false investigation from the “European Centre for Investigative Journalism” — a non-existent organisation.
The video falsely claimed that Magyar was involved in a scheme to funnel $16.7 million (€14.3 million) in EU aid funds to Ukraine and alleged that a trip Magyar made to Ukraine in 2024 to visit a hospital damaged by a Russian strike was a ruse to deliver the money.
Elsewhere, Lakmusz, a Hungarian fact-checking website, reported that posts linked to Storm 1516 were attempting to discredit Ágnes Forsthoffer, Tisza’s vice president, by alleging she was implicated in sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking ring.
According to the Gnida Project, Storm-1516’s campaign has taken different forms in targeting international and domestic audiences.
“We are seeing that they are using different fake websites to target the Hungarian audience and the international audience to proliferate the same narrative,” the Gnida Project said. “This is a tactical shift.”
For example, after JD Vance’s visit to Hungary, in which he endorsed Orban, an English-language campaign appeared claiming that Magyar had withdrawn from the election, mimicking a Sky News report. The report and the claim are, however, baseless.
World
Video: What the Cease-Fire Means for Iran
new video loaded: What the Cease-Fire Means for Iran
Emerging from weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, an emboldened Iran has 10 demands for talks during the tenuous cease-fire, according to Iranian state media. Our reporter Erika Solomon assesses Iran’s position.
By Erika Solomon, Christina Thornell, David Seekamp and Joey Sendaydiego
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