- Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
- Treaty expires on February 5
- Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
- China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
World
EU's divided right wing can disrupt if it finds greater unity: experts
They’re set to make historic gains in June’s European elections, but Europe’s rising right wing parties need to find unity if they are to wield greater influence on the EU stage, experts tell Euronews.
Across the bloc, hard-right parties are roping in voters with promises to slash migration figures, slam the brakes on climate action and strip back EU powers – all in defence of so-called “national sovereignty.”
The right-wing surge predicted by the polls has raised concern that a bolstered Eurosceptic camp could strain the coalition of progressive, pro-European parties that has reigned over Brussels for decades.
But these right-wing parties remain deeply disunited on a raft of critical issues – in particular foreign policy, the EU’s support for Ukraine and the rule of law. These divisions mean that forming a united right-wing bloc in the European Parliament is currently inconceivable.
But experts say that Europe’s hard right could build greater “discipline” and put its house in order following June’s election to progress its agenda on the EU stage.
“There is an assumption that just because they differ so much, they are such a mixed group of politicians and parties that they will never offer a consistent platform and therefore they are not such a big danger,” Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow at the European Centre for Foreign Relations, said.
“This is far from given,” Zerka warned. “It’s possible that also they become more disciplined and more co-operative because they realise that it’s in their interest to have a more consistent and united voice in the European Parliament.”
“So we shouldn’t prematurely assume that they will be a disagreeing, chaotic bunch,” he added.
‘Big changes’ looming
In the European Parliament, right-wing parties are split into two political families.
The radical, far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group – which is set to clinch some 82 seats (+23) in June – hosts the likes of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, Geert Wilders’ Dutch Party for Freedom, Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Alternative for Germany. It will compete with the centrist Renew Europe to become the parliament’s third-biggest force.
The traditionally softly Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group meanwhile includes Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), Spain’s Vox and the Sweden Democrats. Polls predict ECR will gain seven more seats to reach a total of 75 lawmakers in the next European Parliament.
ID is generally seen as more radical, more anti-European and more hardline in its views on key issues such as migration. But the ideological lines that split these two groups are sometimes incoherent.
For example, Spain’s Vox belongs to ECR while Portugal’s Chega belongs to ID, despite their close political affinities and Chega often being branded the “Portuguese Vox.”
In France, Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête! is also part of ECR, despite many seeing the party as more radical than its national competitor, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which is part of ID.
ECR harbours other hard-line groups such as the Sweden Democrats and the Finns Party, which many feel would find a more politically suitable home within ID.
With the elections set to trigger a realignment of the parliament, analysts say parties are actively looking to reconfigure their membership in order to bolster their influence.
“I would not be surprised if big changes take place ahead of these elections,” Francesco Nicoli, visiting fellow at Bruegel, told Euronews.
Fidesz, the ultra-nationalist right-wing party of Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, which currently has no group after it was expelled from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) in 2022, could be looking to join the ECR, whilst Giorgia’s Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia is seen as a possible contender to join or form bridges with the mainstream centre-right EPP.
Nicoli also explained that the election of the European Commission President, a process which in principle should be driven by the results of the elections, could also trigger big changes in the way the right operates in the parliament.
Outgoing President Ursula von der Leyen, tipped to secure a second term, has left the door ajar to working with ECR post-election, with EPP sources citing Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and Czech premier Peter Fiala’s ODS – both members of ECR – as parties that share the EPP’s core values.
“Because of von der Leyen’s personal relationship with Meloni and because she needs votes, it’s possible that she will poke holes into the cordon sanitaire,” Nicoli explained, referring to the firewall that has traditionally prevented mainstream parties from collaborating with the hard right.
Shifting degrees of Euroscepticism
Parties from both the ECR and ID groups have in recent years shifted in their degrees of scepticism towards the European institutions in Brussels. It means parties sitting within the same groups have slightly different perceptions of how to defend their national interest vis-a-vis the EU capital.
The ID group harbours previously staunch anti-Europeans such as the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and France’s Le Pen, both of whom have in the past promised voters a referendum on EU membership.
But Le Pen has significantly softened her anti-European rhetoric over the past eight years, abandoning plans to leave the bloc and advocating for the defence of French sovereignty by curbing European integration and “reforming” the bloc – a stance more compatible with that of ECR. Wilders has similarly abandoned his call for the Netherlands’ EU exit.
“Marine Le Pen’s RN party has evolved and is no longer necessarily against the European Union as a principle. The same applies to Alternative for Germany (AfD),” Bruegel’s Nicoli explained.
Meanwhile the ECR harbours a range of nation-first parties whose stance on EU integration seems to be drifting ever further apart. Italian premier Meloni and Czech premier Fiala – both of whose parties belong to ECR – are seen as constructive partners in Brussels circles.
But fellow ECR member Sweden Democrats vowed as recently as last February to purge Sweden’s constitution of references to the European Union. Prominent figures within the Finns Party – also ECR – have expressed a long-term goal of leaving the EU. Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) also veered from Eurosceptic to anti-European during its eight-year stint in power, which ended last year.
Divided on Ukraine, Russia
Similarly, on Ukraine, Europe’s hard right parties are deeply divided.
Bulgaria’s blatantly pro-Russian Vazrazhdane (Revival) party joined the ID group this February, days after it sent a delegation to Moscow to meet representatives of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, and despite other parties within the group trying to purge themselves of historic ties to the Kremlin.
Marine Le Pen, whose party has traditionally been marred by allegations of proximity to the Kremlin, has aimed to scrub Rassemblement National of its pro-Russian image
Her party, whose European campaign is spearheaded by Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella, backs supporting Ukraine’s efforts to withhold Russia’s assault in principle, but nonetheless opposes Ukraine’s EU accession and calls for curbing French military aid to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Orbán’s efforts to frustrate EU decisions on aid to Ukraine mean his Fidesz party’s possible entry into ECR would probably be a no-go for staunchly pro-Ukraine Law and Justice (PiS) and the Finns party, which defected from ID to ECR last year in a bid to cut its ties with Putin-friendly parties.
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World
‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”
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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.
“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.
The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.
New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.
Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.
Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.
“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”
“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.
A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.
New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.
Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
World
Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum
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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.
As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.
“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.
“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.
MADURO ARREST SENDS ‘CLEAR MESSAGE’ TO DRUG CARTELS, ALLIES AND US RIVALS, RETIRED ADMIRAL SAYS
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)
Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”
“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.
“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”
Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.
“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.
WAS TRUMP’S MADURO OPERATION ILLEGAL? WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW HAS TO SAY
Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.
“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.
Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.
Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.
The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.
FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY
Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)
Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”
Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.
Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.
“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.
“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”
Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.
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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.
As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.
World
Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate
US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.
United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.
On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.
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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”
The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.
Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.
The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.
Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.
The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.
“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.
Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.
The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.
Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.
“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.
“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”
Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.
The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.
On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.
Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.
But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.
“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”
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