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Europe braces for hard winter, hoping for a political payoff

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Europe braces for hard winter, hoping for a political payoff

European leaders have accredited an unprecedented mixture of vitality subsidies and monetary measures aimed toward making the continent much less reliant on Russian coal, oil and gasoline and, more and more, it appears to be like as if political will is stiffening to make that independence everlasting.

On Friday, European Union heads of presidency voted to subsidise electrical energy and gasoline consumed by households and companies this winter amid hovering costs.

They’ve requested the European Fee, the EU government, to suggest worth caps above which the subsidy would kick in.

Governments would pay for it by clawing again electrical energy producers’ and gasoline importers’ extra income.

Over the previous yr, gasoline costs have risen eightfold to face at 340 euros ($345) per megawatt hour final month, whereas electrical energy costs have tripled this yr primarily as a result of rise in costs of hydrocarbons, leaders mentioned.

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Some EU members had already began subsidising payments.

Greece tops the league, spending 3.7 p.c of GDP to separate electrical energy payments with customers 50-50 – greater than some other EU member.

Germany, on September 7, handed a 3rd vitality reduction package deal value 65 billion euros ($66bn), bringing to 95 billion euros ($96bn) the whole worth of subsidies to households and companies.

Russian blackmail

The EU banned imports of Russian coal final April in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and adopted up with a ban on Russian oil in June.

Nevertheless it didn’t ban gasoline, which is tough to exchange with shipments to European ports.

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It is because the worldwide provide of Liquefied Pure Gasoline (LNG) was already oversubscribed after the post-pandemic international rebound and transition to cleaner fuels, but it surely’s additionally as a result of some EU international locations haven’t any LNG import amenities.

Germany and landlocked Central and Jap Europe, particularly, are depending on gasoline introduced in by way of Russian pipelines, which provided a couple of third of EU gasoline final yr.

Russia has threatened to chop off this important provide until the EU lifts sanctions and stops weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

“We’re prepared to provide gasoline in volumes that had been contracted even now. Nonetheless, this can positively rely on the place of European international locations,” mentioned Russian Safety Council Vice President Dmitry Medvedev on August 28. “If our arms are twisted, if funds are banned, or the supply of repaired generators, or the Nordstream 2 launch is rejected, then provides of this sort will in all probability not be in volumes the Western international locations anticipate.”

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Germany halted the method of certifying the newly constructed Nordstream 2 pipeline on February 22, after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his first troops into jap Ukraine. The pipeline was to start delivering 55 billion cubic metres of gasoline to Germany this yr.

And sanctions have prevented German industrial large Siemens from delivering to Russia gasoline compressor generators after upkeep. With out them, Russia says it can not pressurise the Nordstream 1 pipeline.

It halved flows by way of Nordstream 1 twice, on June 15 and July 27, earlier than asserting it was shutting it off fully on September 3. On every event, Russia’s actions despatched gasoline costs in Europe increased.

European leaders have rejected the Russian rationalization that technical difficulties led to the shutdown.

“Putin’s gasoline conflict in opposition to Europe is a direct continuation of his conflict on Ukraine,” mentioned Ukrainian international minister Dmytro Kuleba in July.

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“Wherever he can convey hurt, he’ll. He’ll use each dependence Europe has on Russia to smash the conventional life of each European household. The one means is to hit again laborious and eliminate any dependence.”

Power safety

Europe’s vitality decoupling from Russia might cripple it this winter and plenty of economists imagine it can undergo a recession, primarily attributable to excessive vitality prices.

“Europe doesn’t have sufficient gasoline as a complete, regardless of having storages 85 p.c full, as a result of it’s a query of whether or not you may get gasoline from the place it’s saved to the place it’s wanted,” mentioned Jonathan Stern, who leads the Oxford Institute for Power Research.

“For instance, France [which has LNG terminals] can not provide Germany with gasoline as a result of there’s inadequate capability between them.”

Germany has been furiously shopping for up gasoline tankers to behave as offshore storage and is constructing regasification vegetation onshore.

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“Germany is meant to convey one LNG terminal on-line on the finish of this yr at Wilhelmshaven, and one other early subsequent yr at Brunsbuttel. So it might need some LNG imports within the second half of the winter, however provided that every thing goes in response to plan,” mentioned Stern.

INTERACTIVE - Where Europe gets its energy from

Russia’s cutoff hasn’t been full.

Russian gasoline nonetheless flows by way of the Yamal pipeline that crosses Ukraine and the TurkStream pipeline that runs below the Black Sea.

Dropping these would make issues a lot worse for Europe, which nonetheless leaves Russia with leverage, mentioned Michalis Mathioulakis, head of the Greek Power Discussion board think-tank.

“About 10 billion cubic metres every year [bcma] are nonetheless flowing [through TurkStream]. The system by way of Ukraine is working at about 50-60 [percent] capability… [through which] we get about 25bcma. Whole 35bcma… If that’s shut down, we are able to’t exchange it,” Mathioulakis mentioned.

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The US has promised elevated LNG exports to Europe, however these are depending on non-public sector capability.

Even Scholz isn’t completely positive he can hold Germany powered.

“We’re ready and can in all probability have the ability to get by way of this winter,” he mentioned on September 7.

A European Fee proposal to chop 15 p.c of consumption divided member states between people who have import amenities and people who don’t.

“Spain, France and the UK will in all probability be OK. Southeast Europe will in all probability be OK. Germany, central Europe and Italy won’t be OK,” predicted Stern.

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Newfound political will

Regardless of the unknowns, the consequences of vitality decoupling on European politics appear clear, and the shutoff of Nordstream 1 appears to have been a turning level.

In Germany, arguably probably the most Russophilic EU member after Hungary, there seems to be a tidal shift.

“Russia is not a dependable vitality associate,” German chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed a information convention on September 4.

Three days later, he instructed Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung, “Such a dependence on one provider should not exist once more. We should have the ability to swap to different suppliers at any time.”

Scholz has adopted the zeitgeist of public opinion.

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In reply to the query, “Ought to we proceed to help Ukraine regardless of excessive vitality costs?” 70 p.c of Germans answered sure in a Polit Barometer ballot this month, representing overwhelming majorities from each Bundestag celebration besides AfD.

Scholz just lately acknowledged that “Germany has undergone a basic change,” in its help for Ukraine.

That is essential as a result of, by supporting the development of Nordstream 2 for the previous 12 years, Germany was accused of missing ignoring Ukraine’s issues.

The brand new pipeline’s operation would have allowed Russia to wind down gasoline deliveries to Europe by way of Ukraine, till now its most important route, depriving that nation of transit charges and leverage.

“It has been a really very steep studying curve for the Germans as a result of they didn’t have any issues with Russia to date,” mentioned Minna Ålander, analysis fellow on the Finnish Institute of Worldwide Affairs.

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“That they had this very worthwhile vitality relationship with Russia, which enabled Germany to have the form of trade it has with none of its personal pure assets and wouldn’t have developed in any other case.”

Different cutoffs had been additionally turning factors.

In Might, Russia lower gasoline flows to Finland and Bulgaria, ostensibly as a result of they refused to pay in roubles.

“The speaker of the Finnish parliament mentioned ‘As soon as it’s lower off, there’s no curiosity to reopen it… it’s Russia’s loss’,” mentioned Ålander. Bulgaria, as soon as thought of probably the most Russophilic Balkan nation, turned to Greece.

The 2 have simply completed constructing an interconnector that can enable LNG imported by way of Greece to circulation to Bulgaria.

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The conflict in Ukraine is clearly propelling European integration.

The EU invited Ukraine and Moldova to open membership talks in June, weeks after they utilized.

Albania and North Macedonia, whose EU candidacies have been stalled for years, are anticipated to be invited to begin talks in December.

The most important EU members, France, Germany and Italy, at the moment are swinging behind certified majority voting to extend efficient decision-making on international coverage.

The EU in March accredited a Strategic Compass to construct a fast response drive and command and management capabilities unbiased of NATO by 2030.

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“Russia’s conflict in opposition to Ukraine, which has been for an amazing half motivated by Ukraine’s want to combine with the EU, and the lengths to which Ukrainians are able to go and the excessive worth they’re paying for a future as a part of the European Union, has highlighted that there actually isn’t any good different for European integration,” mentioned Ålander.

“Seeing Ukraine actually struggle for his or her European alternative has in a means triggered a ‘renaissance’ of the European id.”

This winter will doubtless be very costly for the European Union, however its leaders seem to anticipate good-looking political dividends subsequent yr.

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‘Despicable Me 4’ Tops July 4 Holiday Box Office With Mighty $122.6 Million, ‘MaXXXine’ Opens to $6.7 Million

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‘Despicable Me 4’ Tops July 4 Holiday Box Office With Mighty $122.6 Million, ‘MaXXXine’ Opens to $6.7 Million

Gru and the Minions set off fireworks at the box office as America celebrated its birthday. “Despicable Me 4,” the latest chapter in Universal and Illumination’s long-running franchise about a recovering supervillain who trades world domination for a family life, dominated the competition, earning $122.6 million over its first five days of release and $75 million during the three-day weekend. The movie opened on Wednesday, allowing it to fully capitalize on the Fourth of July holiday.

But “Despicable Me’s” appeal transcends borders. Internationally, the film earned $106.9 million from 73 markets, bringing its global earnings to $229.5 million. Even better, “Despicable Me 4” carries a relatively economical $100 million production budget, which should make it very profitable for the companies behind it, to say nothing of all the Minions merch they will sell. For context, films at Pixar and Disney, Illumination’s main rival, routinely cost $200 million to make.

One of those Disney and Pixar productions, “Inside Out 2,” continued to be a box office juggernaut, nabbing $30 million for a second place finish. The animated sequel about the emotional life of a teenage girl is the summer’s biggest hit, earning $533.8 million domestically and $1.2 billion globally (it passed “Minions” to become the fifth highest-grossing animated release in history). Catering to older audiences, Paramount’s “A Quiet Place: Day One” earned $21 million over the weekend for a third place finish, bringing the horror prequel’s domestic gross to a sterling $94.4 million.

Box office analysts believe that the movie business is regaining its stride after a horrendous start to the summer, one that saw well-reviewed films like “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa” flop, leaving ticket sales off nearly 28%. Things are shifting now, with new installments in franchises like “Despicable Me,” “Inside Out,” “A Quiet Place” and “Bad Boys” closing the gap — revenues are now down 17%.

“What a difference a few heavy hitters can make,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore. “They really moved the needle and you can feel momentum building.”

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That’s good news for other major studio releases such as “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Twisters,” which are scheduled to open in theaters this month.

Also opening over the Independence Day holiday, A24’s “MaXXXine,” a horror-thriller about a starlet-targeting killer that unfolds in 1980s Hollywood, debuted to $6.7 million for a fourth place finish, while Angel Studios’ “Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot,” a faith-based drama about the members of a rural church and the foster children they help, earned $3.2 million over the weekend to bring its domestic total to $6.8 million. The Utah-based Angel Studios scored an outsized hit with last summer’s “Sound of Freedom,” which was geared at Christian audiences and opened over the Fourth of July in 2023 before earning more than $250 million. Given its modest start, don’t look for “Sound of Hope” to come anywhere near to achieving that kind of success. “MaXXXine” also suffered from a more muted start, opening slightly below projections, which had the film debuting to a little more than $8 million. The bulk of the film’s audience was comprised of men between the ages of 18 to 34 and “MaXXXine” was strongest in coastal cities like New York and Los Angeles, as well as in Austin, Texas, where Alamo Drafthouse, a movie theater chain that caters to cinephiles, over-indexed.

Sony’s “Bad Boys: Ride or Die,” the latest Will Smith and Martin Lawrence exercise in quips, pyrotechnics and vehicular destruction, rounded out the top five. It earned $6.5 million to bring its domestic haul to $177.4 million.

Meanwhile, Kevin Costner’s costly Western “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” seems ready to amble off into the sunset without much in its saddlebags. The film, an $100 million passion project that Costner mortgaged his land to make, earned $5.5 million over the weekend, bringing its domestic total to a disastrous $22.2 million. A second installment in what is intended to one day be a four-film series is scheduled to open in August. Costner is in production on a third chapter, though after audiences rejected the first one, questions remain about the commercial viability of his labor of love.

That’s not the case with “Despicable Me,” which has shown remarkable endurance, spawning multiple sequels and spinoffs since the first film opened in 2010. Every single one of those films has opened in first place and the series has becoming virtually synonymous with the Fourth of July, with nearly every installment debuting during the period.

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“It’s a tremendous debut for a franchise that is now many installments in,” said Jim Orr, Universal’s head of distribution. “People around the world love Gru and the Minions and find them to be clever and adorable and hysterically funny.”

The success of “Despicable Me 4” continues a hot streak for Illumination, which has fielded hits like “The Secret Life of Pets,” “Sing” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and become one of the most reliable brands in movies. Orr praised the company and its founder Chris Meledandri for “having their thumb on the pulse of what audiences want.”

The latest “Despicable Me” adventure brings back Steve Carell as Gru and introduces new foils in the form of Will Ferrell (as a French bad guy named Maxime Le Mal) and Sofia Vergara (portraying Maxime’s partner in love and crime). But it’s the Minions, the adorable, anarchic, gibberish-spouting creatures who have captured kids’ hearts, becoming Illumination’s mascot in the process. When asked if there might be more “Despicable Me” movies and spinoffs in the future, Orr responded decisively. “Absolutely,” he said. “Particularly after a debut like this one.”

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Putin stresses peace only after Ukraine's surrender as Hungary's Orban makes surprise visit to Moscow

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Putin stresses peace only after Ukraine's surrender as Hungary's Orban makes surprise visit to Moscow

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is advocating a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that peace talks can only happen after Ukraine essentially surrenders. 

“If we sit in Brussels, we won’t be able to get any closer to peace. Action must be taken,” Orban said during a regular interview on Hungarian state radio following his visit. 

Orban turned heads this week when he made back-to-back trips to Kyiv and Moscow just days before a major NATO summit in Washington, D.C., next week. Hungary on Monday started its six-month tenure as the president of the EU, which is a rotating role among all members, and this is Orban’s first visit to Ukraine since the invasion started in Feb. 2022. 

European Union Foreign Policy chief Josep Borrell rushed out a statement stressing that Orban had no mandate from the union and that he was “not representing the EU in any form.” 

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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo described the visit as “disturbing” news, writing on social media platform X that the visit shows “disregard for the duties of the EU presidency and undermines interests of the European Union.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) enter the hall during their joint press conference at the Senat Palace of the Kremlin on July 5, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. Hingarian Prime Minister Orban arrived in Moscow after his talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. (Contributor/Getty Images)

Orban insisted that he had had a “really useful, frank conversation” with Putin about Ukraine, and Putin said that the pair had discussed “possible ways of resolving” the conflict, repeating his demands that Ukraine withdraw all troops from annexed regions. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia had had no idea about the visit until Orban’s camp established contact one day before his arrival. 

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However, Orban admitted that after his two visits, he realized that the “positions are far apart” between Kyiv and Moscow, adding that “the number of steps needed to end the war and bring about peace is many,” Euractiv reported.

Hungary Kyiv Ukraine

Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban (L) and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi (R) shake hands during a press conference on July 2, 2024, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Orban visited Ukraine for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion.  (Viktor Kovalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

Ukraine’s foreign ministry stressed that Orban had made the trip “without any agreement or coordination with Ukraine.”

Leaders of NATO member states will meet in Washington, D.C., next week to mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary and tackle the issue of how to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, now well into its third year. 

Ukraine Invasion Moscow

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin meets with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 5, 2024. (Valery Sharifulin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

In a pre-summit background call, the White House laid out its goals for the week, including the announcement of new steps to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and military capabilities, all with the intent of ultimately sending a “strong signal” to Putin that NATO will outlast him if needed. 

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“We’re also going to send an important message to the rest of the world, including through our partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, as we stand together united and in support of democratic values,” a White House spokesperson told reporters. 

But Orban’s trip has angered his allies, drawing backlash from various leaders across the bloc who deemed his visit to Moscow in particular a danger to their position in negotiations with Putin. 

Press Conference Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) attend their joint press conference at the Senat Palace of Moscow’s Kremlin on July 5, 2024, in Moscow, Russia.  ( Contributor/Getty Images)

“With such a meeting the Hungarian presidency ends before it has really begun,” one EU diplomat told Reuters. “Hungary does not seem to have understood its role. . . . The skepticism of EU member states was unfortunately justified – it’s all about promoting Budapest’s interests.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X, “Appeasement will not stop Putin,” and “only unity and determination will pave the path to a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” 

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White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre labeled the visit as “counterproductive” for NATO and argued that the visit “will not advance the cause of peace.” 

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'Democracy is not in good health,' says Pope Francis

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'Democracy is not in good health,' says Pope Francis

The leader of the Catholic Church addressed thousands in Trieste and renewed his commitment to pray and work for peace in Ukraine, Palestine, Israel, Sudan and Myanmar.

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Pope Francis said global democracy was “not in good health” as he encouraged Catholics to work for peace in Ukraine, Palestine and other conflict zones. 

His comments came during a visit to the northern Italian city of Trieste on Sunday, which marked the 50th Social Week of Italian Catholics. This year, he addressed the theme of democracy in crisis. 

As part of the trip, he went to the Generali Convention Centre, where the leader of the Catholic Church addressed the state of global democracy and its functionality. 

“Let’s be honest, in today’s world democracy is not in good health,” Francis said. 

“I am concerned about the small number of people who voted,” he continued, stressing the importance of creating conditions that allow everyone to express themselves and participate in the democratic process. 

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“Indifference is a cancer to democracy, a non-participation.”  

The pope addressed 8,500 people gathered in the Piazza dell’Unità d’Italia, urging them to renew their commitment to pray and work for peace in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan, Myanmar and wherever there is war.  

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