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Could Germany’s Leopard 2 hesitation tank its arms exports?

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Could Germany’s Leopard 2 hesitation tank its arms exports?

Hesitation by Berlin over whether or not to ship German-made tanks or approve the re-exporting of such tanks by different international locations to Ukraine has broken the nation’s arms business and management inside Europe, based on consultants.

Whereas Berlin on Tuesday agreed to ship 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, EU and NATO companions, resembling Poland, have been infuriated with how lengthy the choice took and even threatened to behave unilaterally.

“Germany’s foot-dragging on supplying Leopards to Ukraine has accomplished irreparable harm to its status as a dependable ally inside NATO, and as a provider of weapons,” William Alberque, Director of Technique, Know-how and Arms Management for Europe on the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research, advised Euronews.

“International locations will suppose lengthy and exhausting earlier than they buy weapons from Germany as a result of its spending months blocking the re-export of Leopards to Ukraine,” he added.

The reputational harm shall be lambasted by German arms companies, resembling Rheinmetall, which had seen its share worth skyrocket following Berlin’s announcement in February to swiftly increase defence spending to 2 per cent of Gross Home Product (GDP). The German authorities has since stated this goal is probably not realised till 2025.

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The hurt to future German orders

Though Germany is now planning to ship its tanks to Ukraine and can permit different Leopard 2 operators to do the identical, the harm to the nation’s arms business will nonetheless be vital, based on Dr Benjamin Tallis, Senior Analysis Fellow on the German Council on Overseas Relations.

That is particularly vital for the nation which was the fifth largest exporter of main weapons over the 2017-2021 interval. Weapons exports reached a document €9.04 billion in 2021.

However since then, Germany has already misplaced market shares to rivals such because the US and South Korea who’ve clinched offers with former purchasers.

Final yr Poland signed a mammoth cope with South Korea for nearly 1,000 K2 tanks and over 600 K9 armoured howitzers in a major blow to the German defence business.

Poland additionally lately signed a deal to purchase a second batch of 116 US Abrams most important battle tanks.

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Nevertheless, Poland isn’t the one European nation the place German arms are being traded for others. The Baltic states have all both lately ordered or are choosing US-made weaponry.

The truth that Berlin wouldn’t approve re-export licences till the US additionally agreed to ship its battle tanks to Ukraine might additionally spook future purchases of German tanks and weapons — though it’s seen by some in Berlin as a serious win by Chancellor Scholz.

Poland pushes forward as German management takes a success

Nevertheless, the diplomatic disagreements over the delay in approving the sending of Leopard 2 tanks aren’t Germany’s solely tank hassle.

In December the nation halted all additional purchases of its new Puma tank after a mass breakdown noticed 18 of the models rendered unfit for operations throughout an train.

Extra worrying for Berlin although would be the harm these debacles will wreak on German standing and management inside Europe.

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Final week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that: “We is not going to passively watch Ukraine bleed to dying”. He warned that if Germany wouldn’t act, then Poland would by constructing a smaller coalition of nations prepared to ship their Leopard 2 tanks, probably with out the inexperienced mild from Berlin.

Dr Tallis advised Euronews that every one of this “helps place Poland as a pacesetter and as an influence in Europe”

He argued that whereas many in Germany wish to see Poland grow to be an influence, they’re much less eager on seeing the nation grow to be a pacesetter, a place historically stuffed inside Europe by France and Germany.

Dr Tallies provides that whereas: “Many in Berlin who would depend on their status and the problematic nature of the Regulation and Justice (PiS) Polish Authorities to stop this [Poland becoming a leader] and guarantee they keep a level of management, haven’t realised how far their inventory has fallen”.

How be part of ventures might circumvent German re-export guidelines

Regardless of the potential of German weapon exporters dropping market share, it’s not all doom and gloom.

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Germany’s €100 billion overhaul of its army and the continuing warfare will present a powerful base for German producers within the brief time period whereas demand is pent up.

Joint ventures between nations may present a route for NATO international locations to purchase German arms with out worry of falling foul of re-export guidelines once more.

An Elysée supply stated that “the premise is that for widespread tools, built-in widespread, there’s a freedom of export besides in distinctive circumstances that are internationally binding.”

Strain grows on Switzerland to comply with go well with

The transfer by Germany can even improve the stress on Switzerland to approve the re-export certificates for tools destined for Ukraine which it has been withholding, citing its notorious neutrality.

Final yr the nation refused to grant Germany re-export certificates for Swiss ammunition, it additionally blocked strikes by Denmark to switch Swiss-made Piranha III armoured autos and is at present analyzing a request from Spain to permit the switch of two anti-aircraft weapons, however has stated approval might be not attainable.

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Alberque argued {that a} reversal within the Swiss stance couldn’t come at a greater time, citing the truth that “its ‘impartial’ stance was undermined when Russia refused to fulfill with the US in Geneva final yr for talks as a result of they now not noticed Switzerland as impartial.”

The truth that Switzerland additionally equipped weapons to Saudi Arabia, regardless of its involvement and use of arms in Yemen has additional undermined the stance of the Swiss Authorities.

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Protesters block New Caledonia roads as French police pour in

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Protesters block New Caledonia roads as French police pour in
A thousand police arrived in New Caledonia from France and the streets were relatively calm after a week of unrest, the French High Commission said on Monday, but roads were blocked by protesters and the airport remained shut, stranding tourists.
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Ex-Israeli PM calls for defunding ICC after court requests arrest warrant for Netanyahu over ‘war crimes’

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Ex-Israeli PM calls for defunding ICC after court requests arrest warrant for Netanyahu over ‘war crimes’

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Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Monday called for “decent nations” to defund the International Criminal Court (ICC) after a court prosecutor filed applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leaders for alleged “war crimes.” 

Prosecutor Karim Khan said his office had collected evidence to give “reasonable grounds” to believe Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility for… war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine.” 

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Khan said those alleged crimes include “starvation of civilians as a method of warfare” and “intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population.”  

He said he is also seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, its top political leader Ismail Haniyeh, and its military commander Mohammed Deif. 

AMAL CLOONEY PLAYED KEY ROLE IN ICC ARREST WARRANTS FOR NETANYAHU, HAMAS LEADERS

Former Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett speaks at the “Bring Them Home” rally in support of Israeli hostages outside the UN Headquarters on April 07, 2024 in New York City. (Noam Galai/Getty Images)

Bennet said the prosecutor’s request was “a moment of shame for the ICC and the world community” and provided “a huge boost to global Jihadi terror.”

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“An ICC that compares the executor of a deliberate murderous attack that included raping women and burning babies, with those who are defending themselves against it, is better off not existing,” Bennett said. “It’s time for the decent nations to defund the ICC.” 

He included the hashtag: “DefundTheICC.”

Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders condemned the move as disgraceful and antisemitic. U.S. President Joe Biden also lambasted the prosecutor and supported Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas.

A panel of three judges will decide whether to issue the arrest warrants and allow a case to proceed. The judges typically take two months to make such decisions.

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Israel is not a member of the court, so even if the arrest warrants are issued, Netanyahu and Gallant do not face any immediate risk of prosecution. But the threat of arrest could make it difficult for the Israeli leaders to travel abroad.

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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‘Lone wolf’ or JI?: Jemaah Islamiyah confusion after Malaysia attack

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‘Lone wolf’ or JI?: Jemaah Islamiyah confusion after Malaysia attack

Medan, Indonesia – Malaysia has been the target of a rare deadly attack after a man armed with a machete struck a police station in southern Johor state, killing two police officers and injuring a third.

Initially, Malaysian police said they suspected Friday’s incident was linked to the hardline group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and was probably an attempt to steal weapons. Speaking to the media after the attack in the town of Ulu Tiram, Inspector General of Police Razarudin Husain said police raided the suspect’s house and discovered “JI-related paraphernalia”.

Five members of his family were arrested, including the suspect’s 62-year-old father, who police said was a “known JI member”. Two other people, who were in the police station making a report at the time of the attack in the early hours of Friday morning, were also detained.

But on Saturday, Malaysia’s Minister of Home Affairs Saifuddin Nasution Ismail appeared to backtrack on the JI connection, describing the attacker as a “lone wolf” who was “driven by certain motivations based on his own understanding because he rarely mixed with others”.

Former members of JI in Indonesia told Al Jazeera that an attack by the group on Malaysian soil seemed unlikely.

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Speaking from prison in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, where he is serving a life sentence for his role in JI’s 2002 Bali bombing, which killed more than 200 people, Ali Imron told Al Jazeera that JI’s profile in Malaysia did not seem to fit the police station attack.

“There have never been any JI members in Malaysia who agreed to commit acts of violence like this,” he said. “Before the Bali bombing, there were attacks in Malaysia, but these were committed not by JI but Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia [KMM].”

KMM, a hardline group linked to JI, carried out small-scale attacks in Malaysia in the early 2000s.

Rueben Dass, a senior analyst at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, noted that JI had never previously mounted attacks in Malaysia.

“Malaysia was always considered an economic region for JI, not the focus of attacks,” he told Al Jazeera. “The Malaysian authorities were always vigilant and aware, particularly after KMM became active. They have been on their toes and carried out a wave of arrests in the early 2000s of JI members.”

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Since then, he said, JI had maintained a low profile.

“To see them coming up again is a little surprising,” he added.

Indonesia, which saw a spate of JI attacks in the late 1990s and early 2000s – including attacks on churches on Christmas Eve 2000, the Bali bombings and the 2003 attack on Jakarta’s JW Marriott Hotel – has also been largely successful in clamping down.

In 2003, with funding and training from the United States and Australia, it established the Counterterrorism Special Detachment 88 (Densus 88), and later set up a National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT).

Indonesian authorities have also pioneered a range of deradicalisation programmes, using former members of hardline groups including JI, with recidivism rates at about 11 percent, according to the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, a Jakarta-based think tank.

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History of JI

JI was founded by Indonesian Muslim scholar Abu Bakar Bashir and Abdullah Sungkar in 1993, with a mission to establish an Islamic caliphate across Southeast Asia.

The group has historically been linked to al-Qaeda, from which it reportedly received funding and training in the 1990s and early 2000s. It has had members in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia and the Philippines.

JI was officially banned in Indonesia in 2007, leading to the group splintering. Some members focused on dakwah or proselytisation, while others continued to plot violent attacks. Arrests have continued across the region with members accused of stockpiling weapons and bomb-making equipment.

According to open source data, between 2021 and 2023, out of 610 people arrested In Indonesia, 42 percent were JI and 39 percent were from other hardline groups – including Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) and other pro-Islamic State groups.

The majority of JI senior figures have been either executed, shot dead in police raids or jailed.

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The 2002 attack in Bali, which killed more than 200 people, shocked Southeast Asia [File: AP]

Both Bashir and Sungkar lived in Malaysia in the 1980s and 1990s, in addition to senior members such as Indonesian Encep Nurjaman (alias Hambali) and Malaysians Noordin Mohammed Top and Azahari Husin. Ali Ghufron (alias Mukhlas), Amrozi bin Nurhasyim and Imam Samudra, the masterminds of the Bali bombing, also spent time in Malaysia.

Hambali was arrested in Thailand in 2003 and is currently awaiting trial at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, while Samudra, Amrozi and Mukhlas were executed in 2008. The two Malaysians were shot in separate police raids in Indonesia in 2005 and 2009.

Before his death, Noordin ran the Luqmanul Hakiem Islamic boarding school in Malaysia, which was founded by Bashir and Sungkar and was in Ulu Tiram, close to the home of the suspect of Friday’s attack.

Malaysia closed the school in 2002 amid suspicions it was being used to recruit people to JI.

Style of attack

While the profile of the suspect’s father, and the proximity to Luqmanul Hakiem, might have suggested a JI connection, Imron cautioned against such an analysis.

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“If the son followed his father, there is no way he would have committed this act, so there is a strong possibility that he was inspired by ISIS [ISIL],” Imron said, suggesting the Malaysian authorities had “jumped to that conclusion.”

Umar Patek, who was released from prison in 2022 after serving 11 years of a 20-year sentence for mixing some of the chemicals used in the Bali Bombing, told Al Jazeera that he “did not believe” that the attacker was a member of JI and agreed that the attack appeared to have the hallmarks of another group.

“I am very doubtful,” he said. “I don’t understand it, especially carrying out a violent attack. It is impossible in my view that it was JI, but it is possible that it was ISIS.”

The style of the attack has added to the scepticism, as the targeting of a police station and Muslim police officers is inconsistent with JI’s attacks in Indonesia. There, it has been ISIL-inspired hardline groups, including JAD, that have attacked police stations, seeing them as representative of the state.

Soldiers walking through the jungle in Indonesia. They are armed. There is dense foliage around.
Indonesia and Malaysia cracked down on the group after a spate of deadly attacks in the early 2000s [File: Suparta/AFP]

Judith Jacob, the head of Asia for the risk analysis and intelligence company Torchlight, told Al Jazeera that the most unusual aspect of Friday’s attack was the location.

“While Malaysian militants have been key figures in JI and Philippine-based groups, there are few indications of sophisticated plots targeting Malaysia specifically in recent years,” she said.

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However, while Malaysia and Indonesia have not seen anything like the levels of violence of the early 2000s, attacks have not been completely eradicated – with a pattern of more opportunistic and low-level violence emerging.

“The attack in Malaysia remains squarely within the wheelhouse of regional Islamist militant groups – that is to say, it is a relatively unsophisticated assault,” Jacob said.

“Indonesian groups, in particular, have been largely unable to conduct the large-scale attacks or coordinated bombings that were a hallmark of JI in its heyday in the 2000s. Militant groups in the Philippines are more capable, but they too have been unable to conduct sophisticated bombings beyond the southern islands.”

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