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Could a bird flu pandemic spread to humans?

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Could a bird flu pandemic spread to humans?

The bird flu virus, which was first reported in US poultry farms in 14 states in early 2022, has spread to cows and two humans in the first-ever cases of bird flu in humans in the United States. The same subtype of bird flu is also spreading in other countries, in what experts are calling a “global pandemic for animals”.

US public health officials have been monitoring dairy cow herds, as well as beef and milk products around the country since the first outbreak in cows was reported in March. So far, the US is the only country to have reported bird flu in cattle, but there are fears that it could pose a serious threat to humans, too.

In April, a Texas farm worker contracted the virus in what is believed to be the first-ever transmission of the virus from a mammal – in this case, cattle – to a human. Thankfully, he suffered only mild conjunctivitis – an infection in the eye – and has since made a full recovery. The US’s first-ever bird flu case in a human was reported in 2022 when a poultry farm worker in Colorado was exposed to infected chicken. He reported only fatigue as the main symptom.

However, bird flu can be extremely dangerous for humans. Since the virus – also known as Avian Influenza – was first detected nearly three decades ago in China, some 860 people have been infected by birds in 23 countries, including China, Egypt, Vietnam and Turkey, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Of those, 463 people died from the virus, giving a huge 52 percent death rate.

So far, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has detected the virus in more than 200 cows, 9,000 wild birds and some 90 million chickens across the US.

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On Friday last week, Canada began implementing stricter import checks for US cattle, following similar measures in Colombia.

So how is bird flu spreading, and could it become a more serious threat to humans?

What is bird flu?

Bird flu is a viral infection that primarily affects birds. Some strains of bird flu can, however, also be infectious to other animals, including humans.

Bird flu belongs to the Influenza A group, one of four types of influenza, and the only one known to cause flu pandemics.

There are also subtypes of avian influenza. Three of these – H5N1, H5N6 and H7N9 – have been found to cause illness in humans as well. While the letters in the names of these subtypes refer to a combination of proteins found in bird flu, the numbers indicate the subtype.

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The first and best-known subtype of bird flu is H5N1, which was first identified in domestic geese in the Guangdong province of southern China in 1996. This is the subtype of bird flu which is currently affecting birds and cattle in the US.

In birds, the virus is likely to cause severe disease and death. Cows, particularly older ones, have displayed symptoms such as reduced appetite and lactation when infected.

“This particular strain of the H5N1 virus has been causing a global pandemic for animals – the term is an epizootic disease – and it has affected a lot of domestic poultry production,” said Meghan Davis, associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and trained dairy veterinarian.

How widespread is bird flu among cattle in the US?

Since late March, H5N1 has been reported in around 200 animals in 36 dairy cattle herds in the US states of Colorado, South Dakota, Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Idaho, Texas, Ohio and New Mexico.

Some experts suspect that the outbreak may have begun to spread to cows before March – even as early as late 2023 – but was not reported.

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“What we don’t know is just how widespread this might be”, said Davis. “This is something where we need lots of surveillance, lots of eyes on this, lots of different ways of looking at the challenge.”

Could bird flu spread to cattle in other countries?

Although there have been no confirmed cases of bird flu in cows beyond US borders so far, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that there is a risk of it spreading internationally through the movement of migratory birds.

“With the virus carried around the world by migratory birds, certainly there is a risk for cows in other countries to be getting infected,” said Wenqing Zhang, head of WHO’s Global Influenza Programme, at a news briefing in Geneva in late April.

Dairy cows in their pen at a cattle farm in Rockford, Illinois, US on April 9, 2024 [Jim Vondruska/Reuters]

How dangerous is bird flu for humans?

H5N1 is described by the CDC as “highly pathogenic”, meaning it is “strongly able to cause disease”, in birds. But it has also proved to be deadly to humans in past cases. Only 860 people around the world have contracted the virus since it was first discovered in 1996, but more than half of those have died from it, according to the WHO.

Farm workers or others in direct contact with infected animals are most at risk. Beyond that, humans are unlikely to be able to transmit the virus to each other, although there was one suspected case of human-to-human transmission in Indonesia in 2006.

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In humans, bird flu can cause a range of symptoms within two to eight days after infection. This ranges from fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches, to more severe effects such as pneumonia and organ failure.

How do we treat bird flu in humans?

There is no vaccine for bird flu in humans. Infected people are typically prescribed antiviral medication such as oseltamivir or zanamivir to manage the symptoms. Health authorities including the CDC recommend administering such drugs as soon as symptoms begin.

How do farmers deal with outbreaks of a virus?

In most parts of the world, farmers cull animals which have been exposed to an outbreak of a deadly virus such as bird flu. Early in April, for example, a poultry farm in Texas destroyed 1.5 million chickens to curtail the spread of bird flu.

So far, there have been no reports of cattle being culled. This is because bird flu has so far not been as deadly in cows as it has in chickens and turkeys, said Andrew Stevens, assistant professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“In this setting, culling would be an extreme and costly step to prevent further spread of the disease. This is especially true because we don’t yet have as good a sense of how contagious the bird flu virus is between cattle,” he said.

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How is bird flu transmitted to farm animals and humans?

Bird flu can be spread by wild birds and waterfowl such as ducks and geese through their droppings or secretions such as saliva.

When poultry or other animals scavenge environments which have been contaminated or have come into contact with infected birds, they can catch the virus too. Infected wild birds may also be present on farms and come into contact with water or feed that cows consume, although researchers are still studying such potential modes of transmission, said Davis.

In cattle, it is still not fully understood how the virus passes from one cow to another, but traces of the virus in milk suggest a heavy viral load can often be found in the mammary glands. Higher viral load in milk compared with respiratory tracts of cows may also point to the routes of exposure of the virus.

Scientists suspect, therefore, that the virus spreads when cows are milked, as equipment may become infected or the virus may become aerosolised – suspended in the air – during cleaning.

Humans who have close or prolonged contact with farm animals or wild birds can become infected when the virus enters their system via the eyes or mouth, or when droplets or small aerosol particles are inhaled via the nose.

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Can you contract bird flu from milk and beef products?

Since April, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has tested 297 milk products, including milk, cottage cheese and sour cream. Traces of the virus were found in 20 percent of an initial 96 samples but additional testing has confirmed that pasteurisation – a heating process used by farmers to screen out harmful pathogens and bacteria from farm products – kills the virus, removing the danger for consumers.

Experts and public health authorities including the CDC strongly advise people to only consume pasteurised dairy products, not just because of avian flu but also to avoid bacterial infections such as salmonella and brucella.

Beef samples tested by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have so far tested negative for bird flu, but official advice from the FDA remains against consuming raw beef.

Aren’t all dairy products pasteurised?

There is a growing movement against food regulation, seen by some in Western countries such as the US as a symbol of freedom. In 2015, for example, Wyoming passed the Food Freedom Act which allows farmers to sell raw milk and other farm goods directly to customers.

Australia, the only country apart from Canada with a blanket ban on raw milk sales, also has a growing “Raw Milk Movement” which advocates for regulated distribution of unpasteurised products. Such regulations would include hygienic production and packaging of the milk, as well as testing for active harmful pathogens.

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While 30 US states allow sales of raw milk, federal law prohibits the distribution of unpasteurised milk across state lines. Additionally, milk from sick cows must be discarded completely under federal law. In cases where raw milk has been packaged before cows are found to be ill, however, products with traces of the virus could still make it to store shelves.

Although such a study has not been conducted on humans due to research ethics, US studies of cats which consumed raw milk infected with H5N1 showed that the cats became sick or even died as a result.

How are the authorities in the US responding to the bird flu outbreak?

Experts and public health authorities such as the CDC say they have been studying bird flu for decades now, and that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to positive shifts in terms of preparing for outbreaks.

Regulatory authorities are also stepping up surveillance of viruses. In late April, the USDA began to require all dairy cattle moving between states to be tested for bird flu.

However, testing at farms within state boundaries is still only done on a voluntary basis, which may not be enough to curb the spread of the virus, said Davis.

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“What I would like to see happen is a switch from what we would consider to be more passive surveillance where we are waiting on farmers and workers to tell us that they’re having a problem, to a more active surveillance where we’re really trying to understand the scope of the problem,” she said.

One way to do this is through antibody serology testing, she said, whereby samples of blood or saliva are taken from a human and tested to detect whether their immune system has been exposed to the virus recently.

Another form of testing is polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, which typically uses more invasive nasal swabs to determine if a person is currently infected and may not be best suited for those who are asymptomatic or have not had very high exposure to a virus, said Davis.

Rural populations in the US may especially be at a disadvantage during the outbreak, as they can lack access to healthcare services and personal protective equipment, she added. Medical centres may be far away and these populations may be unable to afford services. “And if they [farmers] are not interested in having cows tested, then would the workforce even have the opportunity to get tested? That’s unclear,” she said.

How are other countries reacting to the US bird flu crisis?

In late April, Colombia became the first country to limit trade with the US because of bird flu in cows. It has restricted imports of beef and beef products from states where cows have tested positive for the virus.

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Mexico, a major market for US beef and dairy products, has also increased surveillance of cattle entering the country for any sign of respiratory distress, the agriculture ministry said.

On Friday last week, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency also tightened import controls relating to US cattle, introducing a requirement for exporters to provide negative bird flu test results for lactating dairy cattle as well as mandatory testing of retail milk to check for traces of the virus.

Stevens said such measures are important for the long-term sustainability of supply chains. “Although increasing import checks of cattle and dairy products from the US may slightly increase the relative costs of US exports, these costs are small relative to the potential impacts of an import ban or moratorium.”

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Pope Leo XIV delivers first Christmas message calling for end to violence in Middle East, Russia-Ukraine war

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Pope Leo XIV delivers first Christmas message calling for end to violence in Middle East, Russia-Ukraine war

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Pope Leo XIV appealed Thursday in his Christmas Day message for peace in conflict-scarred regions, calling for an end to violence in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Speaking to tens of thousands gathered in St. Peter’s Square for his first Christmas “Urbi et Orbi” address, Latin for “to the city and to the world,” Pope Leo prayed for “justice, peace and stability for Lebanon, Palestine, Israel and Syria.”

The pontiff then turned to the Russia-Ukraine war, calling on believers to pray for the “tormented people” of Ukraine. 

“May the clamor of weapons cease, and may the parties involved, with the support and commitment of the international community, find the courage to engage in sincere, direct and respectful dialogue,” he said.

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Pope Leo XIV waves before delivering the “Urbi et Orbi” Christmas Day blessing from the main balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican, Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025. (Gregorio Borgia/AP)

Pope Leo also remembered civilians caught in other conflicts, including in parts of Africa and Asia, and prayed for peace for people suffering under political instability, religious persecution and terrorism.

He urged world leaders to reject violence and indifference, stressing that peace must be rooted in justice, dialogue and solidarity with the most vulnerable.

“In becoming man, Jesus took upon himself our fragility, identifying with each one of us: with those who have nothing left and have lost everything, like the inhabitants of Gaza; with those who are prey to hunger and poverty, like the Yemeni people; with those who are fleeing their homeland to seek a future elsewhere, like the many refugees and migrants who cross the Mediterranean or traverse the American continent,” the pontiff said.

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Pope Leo XIV, after delivering the Urbi et Orbi” Christmas Day blessing from the main balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican, Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025. (Gregorio Borgia/AP)

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“On this holy day, let us open our hearts to our brothers and sisters who are in need or in pain. In doing so, we open our hearts to the Child Jesus, who welcomes us with open arms and reveals his divinity to us,” he added.

Pope Leo, the first U.S.-born pope, was elected in May following the death of Pope Francis and has made appeals for peace a central theme of his early papacy.

Pope Leo XIV waves before delivering the “Urbi et Orbi” Christmas Day blessing from the main balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican, Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025. (Gregorio Borgia/AP)

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He has repeatedly called for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine and has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as part of his diplomatic outreach. 

The Vatican said in July that Pope Leo expressed willingness to host representatives of both Russia and Ukraine for peace negotiations, a position he has maintained.

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Ukraine accepts demilitarised zone to end Russia war, but do DMZs work?

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Ukraine accepts demilitarised zone to end Russia war, but do DMZs work?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv is willing to turn the parts of the Donbas region that his troops currently control into a demilitarised zone (DMZ) if Russia also commits to keeping its soldiers out of this eastern region of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s comments represent Ukraine’s biggest territorial concession so far as he faces mounting pressure from both Russian military advances and United States President Donald Trump to agree to a ceasefire with Moscow.

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The Ukrainian president also spoke of a second DMZ near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, which is currently controlled by Russia. The DMZ proposals, he said, were part of a 20-point peace plan seeking the end of the Ukraine war that Zelenskyy on Tuesday said was backed by the US.

Here is what we know about the plan and whether demilitarised zones could work in Ukraine:

What is the 20-point peace plan?

Zelenskyy unveiled the plan in a two-hour briefing with journalists, reading aloud from a highlighted and annotated copy. The plan was formulated by negotiators from Washington and Kyiv in Florida over the weekend.

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Here’s where negotiations stand on key issues:

  • Ukraine’s NATO membership: Russia has insisted from the start of the war that it will not accept Ukraine as a part of NATO. The Trump administration, too, has made clear that Ukraine must give up its hopes of joining the military alliance. But Ukraine continues to resist pressure to introduce constitutional amendments explicitly stating that it will stay neutral and not seek NATO membership. “It is the choice of NATO members whether to have Ukraine or not,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. “Our choice has been made. We moved away from the proposed changes to the Constitution of Ukraine that would have prohibited Ukraine from joining NATO.”
  • Territorial concessions: Zelenskyy said any proposal requiring Ukraine to withdraw its troops would have to be approved through a national referendum. Ukraine has repeatedly pointed to its constitution, which prevents the government from changing the country’s borders on its own. But many analysts believe that Ukraine might need to settle for a middle path – not recognising Russian-occupied regions officially while acknowledging that it does not actually control them.
  • Elections: Zelenskyy said Ukraine would hold a presidential election only after a peace agreement is signed. US President Donald Trump has been pushing for elections in Ukraine while Russia has used the absence of elections during the war to question Zelenskyy’s legitimacy.
  • Demilitarised zones: Zelenskyy said any areas that Ukraine pulls out from will become DMZs, which he also called free trade zones. “They are looking for a demilitarised zone or a free economic zone, meaning a format that could satisfy both sides,” he said on Tuesday, referring to US negotiators.

What are the proposed DMZs in Ukraine?

Russia has demanded full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which constitute the Donbas, historically Ukraine’s industrial belt.

Its troops currently control almost all of Luhansk and 70 percent of Donetsk.

The latest proposal would involve Ukrainian soldiers pulling out of the territory in the Donbas that they control – as long as Russia does not seek to occupy the region. Instead, that region is to become a DMZ.

Meanwhile, in Zaporizhzhia, Russian troops are in control of a nuclear plant that Ukraine has tried – so far in vain – to get back.

The latest proposal suggests turning the region around the nuclear plant into a DMZ, too.

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But it is unclear how the proposed DMZs – if both sides were to agree to them – would be governed, who might ensure that both sides play by the rules and how resources there, such as the nuclear plant, could be shared.

“It’s a point in the plan that is supposed to satisfy both sides,” Marina Miron, an analyst at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

“However, I don’t see how this is going to function because in Ukraine Zelenskyy said that Russia would have to withdraw its forces, and we’re talking about the Donbas, and I don’t see that happening, especially if Russia is winning on the battlefield.”

Miron explained that Ukraine designating demilitarised zones in this peace plan was a tactic by Kyiv to signal that it was ready for peace, thereby pushing “the diplomatic burden on Russia”.

Has Russia responded?

Moscow has not accepted or rejected the latest peace plan so far.

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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that Russia was “formulating its position” on the plan. He did not comment on the specifics of the plan.

What are other demilitarised zones in the world?

Several DMZs exist. They include:

Korean Demilitarized Zone

The Korean DMZ is a 4km-wide (2.5-mile-wide) buffer zone separating North Korea and South Korea.

It was established in 1953 after the signing of an armistice ended the fighting of the Korean War.

The war had broken out in June 1950 when North Korean forces crossed the 38th parallel and invaded South Korea in an attempt to reunify the peninsula.

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Korea was temporarily divided at the 38th parallel by the US and the Soviet Union after World War II. This division placed Kim Il Sung’s Soviet-backed Workers’ Party of Korea in control of the North and the US-supported Syngman Rhee government in control in the South.

The conflict lasted three years with Soviet- and Chinese-backed North Korean troops fighting against US-led United Nations forces. It killed an estimated two million people and devastated cities and villages on both sides.

The war concluded with an armistice signed by the US, China and North Korea, but South Korea refused to agree, and no formal peace treaty was ever concluded. More than 70 years later, the two Koreas remain technically at war.

UN Disengagement Observer Force Zone in the Golan Heights

The UN established a narrow strip of land as a DMZ in the Golan Heights in 1974 after the war that year between Israel and Syria and an armistice signed by the two countries.

The broader Golan Heights is a rocky patch of land that under international law belongs to Syria. Israel captured it during the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed it in 1982 in a move recognised only by the US.

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The Observer Force Zone separates Israeli-occupied territory from the remaining part of the Golan Heights that is still under Syria’s control. The zone is still monitored by UN peacekeepers.

Sinai Peninsula demilitarised zones

DMZs were established in the Sinai Peninsula as part of the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty. The treaty divided the Sinai Peninsula into four security zones with different military restrictions.

These zones are monitored by an international peacekeeping force called the Multinational Force and Observers.

Aland Islands

The Aland Islands are a small archipelago in the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Finland. They are an autonomous, Swedish-speaking region of Finland.

They have been demilitarised since 1921 as per a decision by the now nonexistent League of Nations. Finland and Sweden took the issue to the league because in the early 20th century, the islands were part of Finland, which gained independence from the Russian Empire in 1917.

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After this, many Alanders wanted to reunite with Sweden, which spurred tensions.

Antarctica

Antarctica has been established as a demilitarised zone under the 1959 Antarctic Treaty.

This forbids military activity and nuclear testing, ensuring the continent is used exclusively for peaceful purposes and scientific research.

This is because several nations had made overlapping territorial claims in Antarctica, raising fears of future conflicts.

Preah Vihear Temple

The Thailand-Cambodia border, shaped by French colonial-era delineation, contains ambiguous boundaries and overlapping claims.

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These disputes have grown more contentious as both countries strengthened their institutions and the strategic value of certain areas increased.

One of the contested zones is the culturally significant Preah Vihear Temple from the Khmer Empire, which is symbolically important to both nations. In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple belonged to Cambodia.

Disputes erupted from 2008 to 2011, marked by exchanges of artillery fire, mass displacements and duelling legal interpretations of the ICJ ruling.

In 2011, the ICJ ordered a provisional demilitarised zone around the temple.

Have DMZs worked before?

DMZs have been considerably successful in some cases, such as in the case of the Koreas.

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The zone between North and South Korea has prevented the two from large-scale military conflict.

On the other hand, violence has broken out between Thailand and Cambodia this year over their border dispute, killing nearly 100 people in July and December and displacing about a million, according to official counts. The two countries reported new clashes on Wednesday.

In other cases, such as in the Golan Heights or Sinai Peninsula, demilitarised zones have prevented direct, large-scale clashes.

However, Israel has repeatedly violated the Golan Heights buffer zone, especially over the past year, using the chaos after the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 to grab territory and expel Syrian families. The UN has criticised Israel’s DMZ violations.

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Bangladesh’s Tarique Rahman, seen as likely next PM set to return from exile ahead of polls

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Bangladesh’s Tarique Rahman, seen as likely next PM set to return from exile ahead of polls
  • BNP aims to mobilize five million supporters for Rahman’s homecoming
  • Rahman faced criminal convictions, acquitted after Hasina’s removal
  • Rahman seen as likely next PM as BNP widely expected to top February election

DHAKA, Dec 24 (Reuters) – The Bangladesh Nationalist Party aims to gather five million supporters to welcome its leader Tarique Rahman home from nearly 17 years in exile on Thursday, a show of strength as he emerges as a leading contender for prime minister in February elections.

Rahman, 60, is the son of ailing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and acting chairman of the party that is widely expected to come out on top in the parliamentary vote set for February 12.

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His return from London comes as his BNP is on the ascendant following the ouster of its arch foe, long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in a student-led uprising last year. Apart from brief transition administrations, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina have alternated in power since 1991.
A December survey by the U.S.-based International Republican Institute suggests the BNP is on course to win the largest number of parliamentary seats, with the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party also in the race. Hasina’s Awami League party, which has been barred from the election, has threatened unrest that some fear could jeopardize the vote.

Rahman’s decision to return is driven by both political developments and personal circumstances. His mother has been seriously ill for months, prompting what party insiders describe as an urgent trip home.

‘DEFINING POLITICAL MOMENT’, BNP SAYS

BNP leaders said they are preparing for what they call an “unprecedented” gathering in the capital, aiming to draw more than five million supporters along the route from the airport to the reception venue.

“This will be a defining political moment,” senior BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said, adding that security arrangements are being closely coordinated with authorities to ensure order.

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Rahman has lived in London since 2008 as he faced multiple criminal convictions at home including for money laundering and in a case related to a plot to assassinate Hasina. He was, however, acquitted of all charges after Hasina’s removal, clearing the legal barriers that had delayed his return.

BNP officials said he will travel directly from the airport to the reception venue before visiting his mother.

YOUTH PARTY WELCOMES HIS RETURN

Rahman’s return comes as the Muslim-majority South Asian nation of nearly 175 million people enters a sensitive election period under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The vote is widely viewed as crucial to restoring political stability after nearly two years of turmoil.

Bangladesh is at a crossroads, with Rahman’s return testing the BNP’s ability to mobilise peacefully and the interim administration’s promise to deliver a credible transfer of power. While the government has pledged a free and peaceful election, recent attacks on media outlets and sporadic violence have raised concerns about law enforcement.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), which emerged from the youth protest movement that toppled Hasina, said it views Rahman’s return positively.

“Tarique Rahman was forced into exile under severe pressure and threats, so his homecoming carries symbolic weight,” said Khan Muhammad Mursalin, an NCP spokesperson. “His arrival will undoubtedly energize party leaders and supporters … On the path to democracy, we will stand with him.”

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Reporting by Ruma Paul; Editing by YP Rajesh and Peter Graff

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