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Central & Eastern Europe want security clout. Can more money do that?

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Central & Eastern Europe want security clout. Can more money do that?

Poland is ready to push the envelope once more when NATO defence ministers meet in Brussels on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has stated his nation could be open to supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets however provided that different NATO members agree, one thing the US, UK and Germany are reportedly towards.

However Warsaw might get its method, because it did with Leopard II tanks. Its fixed stress on Berlin to permit the re-export of the tanks led the federal government to ultimately acquiesce on January 25.

Nevertheless it’s not the one situation Warsaw can also be pushing among the many alliance.

A coalition of japanese European international locations led by Poland and Estonia can also be calling for NATO members to extend the spending benchmark from 2 per cent of GDP — as was agreed in 2014, however of which solely 9 of the 30 members achieved by 2022 — to 2.5 per cent and even 3 per cent.

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NATO Secretary-Basic Jens Stoltenberg instructed German newspaper Die Welt final month {that a} new spending pledge might be debated at a summit in Vilnius in July.

A number of international locations from Central and Japanese Europe — a area recognized in educational circles by the initialisation “CEE” — are stealing a march.

“The conflict in Ukraine has made us arm ourselves even quicker, which is why we’ll make an unprecedented effort: 4 per cent of GDP for the Polish military this 12 months,” Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, stated at a press convention in late January.

Not solely would that make Poland NATO’s most profligate spender by proportion of GDP — the US spent 3.47 per cent final 12 months on defence —, the nation additionally plans to quickly boast Europe’s largest military.

Increased defence speding

Protection Minister Mariusz Błaszczak lately laid out plans to develop the army to 250,000 skilled troopers and 50,000 territorial reservists. France, by comparability, has round 200,000 energetic troops.

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Romania’s defence funds is anticipated to achieve 2.5 per cent this 12 months, whereas the three Baltic states — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — need to get to that degree over the subsequent few years. Lithuania says it can accomplish that in 2023.

The Czech authorities in the meantime accredited a draft legislation in early January to repair defence spending of not less than 2 per cent yearly. Petr Pavel, a former NATO commander, was elected president of the Czech Republic late final month.

If Berlin retains its 2 per cent promise, made in early 2022, it might overtake the UK as NATO’s second-highest real-term spender, behind the US. Germany’s spending could be 2 per cent of a GDP totalling $4.2 trillion, whereas Poland could be spending 4 per cent of round $679 billion, in line with authorities figures from 2022.

Ever for the reason that finish of the Chilly Struggle, Europe’s army powerhouses have been Atlantic-fringed and principally non-continental: the UK and France have been the largest spenders and the least averse to utilizing their militaries overseas; Britain within the Center East and France in Africa.

However Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hubris in invading Ukraine virtually twelve months in the past has spurred a European “revolution” in defence spending. Even frugal Eire, which usually pledges simply 0.3 per cent of GDP to defence, has made guarantees to radically improve army budgets.

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Japanese international locations and weapons for Ukraine

But the centre of safety energy in Europe is shifting eastwards. Apart from extra money for militaries, new NATO battlegroups have been despatched to the Baltics and the Balkans since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Sweden and Finland ought to be capable of be part of the defence alliance later this 12 months. A number of international locations, together with Ukraine, have put in bids to hitch the European Union, which has a mutual-defence clause, albeit weaker than NATO’s.

Governments that have been as soon as side-eyed by their European companions for being too hawkish, like Poland and the Baltics, at the moment are seen because the realists on the desk.

The surge in spending is partly the results of prudent concern in regards to the Ukraine conflict, Calle Håkansson, an affiliate fellow on the Swedish Institute of Worldwide Affairs’ Europe Programme, instructed Euronews.

As a result of CEE states are bodily nearer to the motion and could be most in danger if Putin makes the — extremely unlikely — choice of attacking a NATO member, it’s solely pure that they are extra self-conscious than France or Germany, which have buffer states between themselves and Russia.

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Most CEE international locations have additionally contributed a relatively increased share of their weapons with Ukraine, they usually now want to exchange these weapons programs, which calls for extra spending.

In addition they know that america and the UK have supplied a lot gear to Kyiv and are working low themselves, so now have fewer means to assist, say, Latvia or Moldova in the event that they have been threatened.

In actual financial phrases, non-CEE states nonetheless have the sting. Nonetheless, increased defence spending has taken place amid a relatively worse inflation disaster in Europe’s east. Whereas the price of dwelling has risen by a mean of 10 per cent within the Eurozone, it was between 16-17 per cent in Poland and the Czech Republic, as an example, on the finish of 2022.

Estonia, Latvia and Poland have supplied essentially the most authorities assist to Ukraine as a proportion of the donor nation’s GDP, in line with the Ukraine Help Tracker compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Financial system, a suppose tank.

Lithuania is available in fifth, whereas Slovakia and the Czech Republic are simply behind the seventh-placed US. France lags behind Slovenia.

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‘Greater than pawns’

And most CEE international locations additionally lack the mammoth defence firms of France and Germany. A lot of the cash to pay for Berlin’s surge in defence spending will go to German firms.

Poland and different japanese Europeans might be depending on international suppliers for his or her army build-up, though they’re additionally trying to spur home manufacturing.

Warsaw agreed a €5.2 billion deal to purchase tanks and self-propelled howitzers from South Korea, now a number one army provider to the world.

This has its benefits. As Soviet-made programs are despatched from Japanese European international locations to Ukraine, new, state-of-the-art equipment is bought to exchange them. As such, it’s not simply spending however modernisation for these states.

The query is: does this give Central and Japanese European states extra clout? Håkansson instructed Euronews that we will count on them to realize “a stronger voice on defence issues in each NATO and the EU” due to their increased defence spending.

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Dimitar Bechev, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, a suppose tank, wrote lately that one takeaway from the Ukraine conflict is that “Japanese European international locations and nations have company and are greater than pawns within the energy struggles of bigger gamers.”

Earlier than the conflict, NATO presence within the japanese flank was 4 battalion-sized battlegroups in Poland and the three Baltic states. After Russia’s invasion, NATO determined to deploy forces additionally to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, and to extend these eight battlegroups to brigade-size.

“These strikes signify a shift away from a ‘tripwire’ strategy, and in direction of a concentrate on ‘ahead defence’,” in line with a report printed final month by the Middle for Safety Analyses and Prevention (CBAP), a Czech safety suppose tank. Put merely, japanese Europe is now longer merely a buffer.

‘Reflexive hysteria’?

Though the EU and NATO’s obligations are tilting eastwards, this might swing a number of methods.

Increased spending by NATO’s Japanese flank “shouldn’t present Western and Southern Europeans with an excuse to solely modestly improve their very own defence investments,” Daniel Fiott, a professor on the Vrije Universiteit Brussel and Actual Instituto Elcano, instructed Euronews.

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There are indicators of a wobble in Berlin, not simply over the Leopard 2 tank affair. January marked the sixtieth anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, which established a fruitful partnership between Germany and France, however relations at the moment are at an ebb.

“In the case of defence, the conflict in Ukraine has underscored the pressing want for each international locations to revise their safety methods…However as a substitute of working collectively, the international locations are once more at odds,” Jean Pisani-Ferry, a senior fellow on the Brussels-based suppose tank Bruegel, wrote final week in Venture Syndicate.

There are additionally issues about how CEE states will spend their enlarged defence budgets.

“Lots of the newly introduced funding schemes mirror a scarcity of creativeness, coupled with a level of reflexive hysteria. Nowhere is that this extra seen than within the fixation on cost-ineffective ‘marvel weapons’, such because the F-35,” the CBAP report said.

Poland, as an example, is in discussions to accumulate these state-of-the-art fighter jets from America.

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One other concern is that European safety issues change into purely continental. France has its pursuits in Africa; Britain within the Center and Far East.

Germany, like the 2 former colonial powers, has some type of safety ambitions within the Indo-Pacific, a area of main financial significance within the twenty first century and, additionally, safety issues, given fears that China would possibly sometime invade Taiwan, a battle that will be much more impactful on world markets than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

‘We’d like extra American troops’

However CEE states stay primarily targeted on countering threats from Russia. 

On the one hand, analysts reckon that larger enter from japanese Europeans might unlock Western governments to concentrate on points additional afield. Then again, they could compel the likes of Berlin or Paris to focus totally on the Russian menace.

But CEE governments are extra accepting of the necessity for US energy, and their publics are much less “anti-American” than their extra westwards neighbours. Some 91 per cent of Poles have beneficial opinions of the US, in line with a survey final 12 months by the Pew Analysis Centre, a suppose tank. Solely 63 per cent of Germans suppose the identical, and simply 57 per cent of French.

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“Europe is just too weak and fragile for just one geographical area to emerge because the safety guarantor of the remainder. That is why the US has historically performed the position of guarantor; it’s militarily succesful but additionally politically adept at suppressing divergences between European states,” Fiott instructed Euronews.

There isn’t a single or small group of states in Europe that may change into Europe’s predominant safety guarantor; “no quantity of army spending will change this case,” he added.

In some ways, Poland is once more main the cost on this entrance.

“We have now been making an attempt for months to persuade our American companions that we’d like a everlasting presence on Polish soil,” Marek Magierowski, the Polish ambassador to the US, instructed American media final week.

“We’d like extra American troops.”

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Taking presidential debates out of commission's hands virtually guarantees fewer viewers

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Taking presidential debates out of commission's hands virtually guarantees fewer viewers

NEW YORK (AP) — The planned presidential debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump that were swiftly organized this week are a coup for CNN and ABC News — but a virtual guarantee they’ll be among the least-watched general election contests ever.

The two campaigns skirted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which has organized the events for 36 years with the goal of getting them before as many eyes as possible.

ABC, which has assigned David Muir and Linsey Davis as moderators for a debate scheduled for Sept. 10, has said it will make it available for simulcast on any U.S. television network or streaming service that wants it. CNN had not said by early Friday whether it will do the same for its debate, set for June 27 with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash as questioners.

A debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and whomever former President Trump chooses as his running mate is expected to air this summer on CBS.

Each of the two debates between Biden and Trump in 2020 were carried on at least 16 networks, according to the Nielsen company. The first was seen by 73.1 million viewers, the second by 63 million.

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Debates prior to a party’s nominating process, which Trump skipped this year, are usually organized and broadcast by individual media organizations. The tradition has been different for those organized by the commission during general election campaigns, said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, and member of a group of experts Annenberg organized a decade ago that explored ways to increase viewership.

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“It’s the public’s debate,” Jamieson said.

For CNN leaders, there’s a great temptation to keep it for themselves. It would likely be the most-watched event ever on a network that is struggling in ratings. CNN’s chief executive, Mark Thompson, made a point in tying the debate to the brand on Wednesday when he announced the agreement to hold it during a sales presentation to advertisers in New York.

“When people have something important to say,” Thompson said, “they say it on CNN.”

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CNN said Wednesday the debate would also air live on its international and Spanish-speaking networks, and stream on CNN Max and CNN.com.

The pool of people available to watch on CNN’s main television network is dwindling due to cord-cutting of cable and satellite services. CNN was available in 71% of American homes with television in May 2020; this month it’s just under 54%, Nielsen said.

Keeping the debate on CNN alone would run up against stout criticism that it’s not the public-spirited thing to do, something ABC moved quickly to avoid.

Political polarization that has spread to the media would also likely cut into viewership if the event was not shared, Jamieson said. Would Fox News viewers, after years of hearing CNN criticized by some of their favorite politicians and media figures, turn to CNN for a debate or skip it entirely?

It’s still not certain how many other networks will carry the debates even with the opportunity. Only PBS has said that it would; other networks have yet to give a public commitment.

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Some of those executives would have to swallow hard to carry another network’s personalities on their air, with the risk some of their regular viewers might like them and switch allegiances. Pressure to carry the debates for public service reasons would be intense, though.

Despite worries about how many people will watch, Jamieson said there’s some irony in that there’s a lot to like about the proposed ground rules for the event. So far, the plans are to hold them in television studios without an audience.

That’s something the Annenberg group had proposed a decade ago, saying an audience that reacts to what the candidates are saying is often a distraction, and that audience is usually packed with partisans on both sides.

If the two campaigns agree to rules where one candidate’s microphone would be shut off while his opponent answers a question, it would go a long way to solving what has been a more frequent problem recently with politicians interrupting and talking over an opponent, she said.

“If someone had told me that there was going to be some good news about political discourse this year, I would have told them they were delusional,” she said.

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David Bauder writes about media for The Associated Press. Follow him at http://twitter.com/dbauder.

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First brewery opens in Abu Dhabi as parts of UAE loosen alcohol laws

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First brewery opens in Abu Dhabi as parts of UAE loosen alcohol laws

In 2018, Chad McGehee opened Side Hustle Brews and Spirits, an Abu Dhabi-branded brewery and distillery with funky camels on its cans and playful names familiar to anyone living in the United Arab Emirates.

The only problem was it was illegal to produce alcohol in the country, so his company made its hoppy India pale ale in the United States and then imported it to the UAE for sale.

That’s all changed as Abu Dhabi has overhauled its laws to allow for the micro and craft breweries that have taken the rest of the world by storm, part of a wider reconsideration of alcohol policies in the Islamic nation increasingly drawing tourists. And McGehee’s dream of IPAs in Arabia became a reality — though it took hard work as they were the first to open.

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“The government had created a regulation around fermentation, but the steps of getting a permit, the steps of inspection, all of these things were not put on paper yet. So that had to be built out as we were going through this process,” McGehee said on a recent afternoon at his brew pub on Abu Dhabi’s Al Maryah Island.

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Abu Dhabi has long been considered by those living in the UAE to be more buttoned-up than the rambunctious neighboring emirate of Dubai, home to nightclubs, beach bars and pubs drawing tourists and residents to imbibe. In the seven emirates of the UAE, Sharjah outright bans the sale and consumption of alcohol, like neighboring Saudi Arabia, as well as Iran and Kuwait.

But beginning in 2020, Abu Dhabi changed its policies. It eliminated its licensing system for alcohol purchases for drinkers to boost sales and tourism during the coronavirus pandemic. Eliminating the licenses allowed Muslims, if they chose, to drink, as well as decriminalized alcohol possession for those without a license.

Mitchell Dougherty, the brewmaster at Side Hustle Brews and Spirits, pours a pint of beer at his brew pub in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on May 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Malak Harb)

“I think progression in this country is par for the course, they’re always moving things forward,” said Nadeem Selbak, one of the partners at Craft, which is Side Hustle’s brew pub.

The Emirates still maintains a strict no-tolerance policy on drunken driving and public intoxication. Islam also considers alcohol consumption as “haram,” or forbidden.

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But alcohol sales long have been a major driver of tax revenue and a moneymaker for the UAE. Dubai Duty Free, for instance, sold 6 million cans of beer last year, as well as 3.8 million bottles of liquor and 2.3 million bottles of whiskey for thirsty travelers.

But despite that demand, there was no local equipment available to open a brewery in the UAE. McGehee ended up importing almost everything for the brewery, nearly all of it coming from the U.S.

Abu Dhabi represents a completely untapped market for Side Hustle.

“The idea for me was like going back in time, when I started almost 20 years ago,” said Mitchell Dougherty, Side Hustle’s brewmaster.

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At any given point, Craft has 14 beers on tap. So far this year they have brewed 34 and aim to reach up to 100 by the end of the year. The names of the beers include some winking reminders of life in the UAE, including one called “Massage Card Ninja” — a nod to business cards showing scantily clad women that appear under car windshield wipers in some Dubai neighborhoods.

McGehee said the different types of beers include ingredients from the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Japan and the U.S., covering a variety of palates for their international customers.

“If you look at Abu Dhabi, you have people from almost 200 countries,” he said. “They all have their own definition of what beer is, what craft beer is, or what lager is, or what IPA is, so we’re trying to cater to as many of them as possible.”

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Tunisian lawyers defiant as government cracks down on all voices

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Tunisian lawyers defiant as government cracks down on all voices

Tunis, Tunisia – Hundreds of black-clad lawyers filled the narrow Boulevard Ben Bnet outside Tunis’s bar association headquarters as they protested the arrests of two of their own.

Thursday was the second day of strikes in a dark week for Tunisian civil society as security forces swept up journalists and activists in what rights groups have characterised as a further crackdown on dissent.

“The regime’s machinery is operating very efficiently, meaning it devours anyone who has a critical perspective on the situation, … lawyers, journalists, bloggers, citizens or associations,” Romdhane Ben Amor of the Ligue Tunisienne pour la defense des droits de l’homme (LTDH, the Tunisian League for the Defence of Human Rights) said.

Ben Amor said President Kais Saied, like populists the world over, sides with those he sees as the people against the elites, encouraging them to blame others for their difficulties.

“So, of course, Kais Saied from now until the elections [scheduled for November] has a long list of individuals, associations, parties and journalists whom he will gradually criminalise to always maintain the sympathy of his electoral base,” Ben Amor said.

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Lawyers protest outside the central court in Tunis [Al Jazeera]

The purge

Saied, a former law professor elected in 2019, swept to power on widespread Tunisian anger and frustration over politics regarded as corrupt and self-serving.

After dismissing parliament in July 2021, Saied began rebuilding Tunisia according to his design, ignoring the acute, unresolved financial crisis that led to its 2011 revolution. He blamed “international plots against Tunisia”, rewrote the constitution and purged his critics in politics and the media.

He oversaw the arrest of leaders of the self-styled Muslim Democratic Ennahdha party, including former parliamentary Speaker Rached Ghannouchi as well as the party’s archrival, Abir Moussi.

He weakened the previously vibrant media, introducing Decree 54, criminalising the publication or broadcast of any information the state subsequently deems false.  And he has battled the judiciary, restructuring it to his own design.

In the protesting throng on Thursday was Lamine Benghazi of Avocats Sans Frontiers (Lawyers Without Borders).

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“The wave of repression we witnessed this week clearly marks a new threshold for Saied and Tunisia,” Benghazi said as the noise of the crowd almost drowned him out.

“Those parts of civil society that avoided the repression that followed the [July 2021 events] now seem to be the primary targets of the authorities. Arrests, raids and investigations on NGOs working on migrant rights have all multiplied over the last few weeks.”

The outlook for Tunisia’s civil society, whose leads were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015, is grim, he said.

“Our fear is this crackdown will broaden to other groups, especially those working on democracy and rule of law and who are critical of the direction Tunisia is taking. The fact the discussions over the decree governing associations have resumed as civil society is under attack is no coincidence,” he said.

Benghazi referred to a law that parliament – now in a vastly weakened state – has long been discussing. If passed, it would force civil society groups to seek permission from authorities to operate, Amnesty International said in October.

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Arrests denounced

Anger was tangible among the protesters outside the imposing colonial courthouse. Slogans from the 2011 revolution rang out – “The people want to topple the regime” – as demonstrators denounced the treatment of their colleagues.

Sonia Dahmani was seized at the bar association on Saturday by masked police who stormed the building in front of television cameras to arrest her, reportedly in connection to a passing quip she had made about Tunisia on a television programme.

Lawyer Mehdi Zagrouba was taken on Monday after an initial national strike by lawyers to protest Dahmani’s arrest. Witnesses said police again violently entered the bar association, breaking windows and doors before detaining Zagrouba.

Zagrouba had been with Dahmani during her court appearance that day and active in the strike. The Ministry of the Interior charged him with verbally and physically attacking the police, which his defence denied.

Video of Zagrouba’s late-night arrest shows him being taken on a stretcher from the bar association, and sources told Al Jazeera that a photographer covering the event had his camera seized.

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On Wednesday, Zagrouba’s lawyers told a court he had been tortured before he collapsed and was taken to hospital, forcing the hearing’s postponement.

According to the Tunisian bar association, Zagrouba had “traces of physical violence on different parts of his body, which were examined by the investigating judge, confirming that he was tortured during his detention”.

“The Tunisian authorities have managed to subordinate the judiciary … and to effectively turn courts and the prosecutor’s office into tools of oppression,” Said Benarbia, director of the Middle East-North Africa programme at the International Commission of Jurists, told Al Jazeera.

“By targeting independent lawyers, the authorities are dismantling the remaining pillar on which the fair administration of justice stands, …. part of a wider campaign to intimidate and silence the legal profession, one of the last lines of defence against the government’s crackdown,” he added.

In a statement to local radio, the Interior Ministry denied that Zagrouba had been assaulted at any point and threatened to prosecute anyone sharing false information.

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Crackdown after crackdown

On the same evening as Dahmani’s arrest, TV and radio presenter Borhen Bsaies and political commentator Mourad Zeghidi were also arrested under an “anti-fake news” cybercrime law. Bsaies’s lawyer said no proper evidence had been offered to show his client had violated the law.

A judge ruled on Wednesday that both would be held until May 22 on charges of having breached Decree 54.

Bssais and Zeghidi are the latest in a long line of journalists accused of breaching Decree 54 or similar charges.

According to Zied Dabbar, head of the National Union of Tunisian Journalists, at least 60 journalists and commentators have so far been summoned under the law.

Among them is radio host Haythem El Mekki, who is being pursued after saying in April last year that the Sfax morgue was unable to cope with the number of refugee bodies it was receiving.

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Those found guilty of having breached Decree 54 face a fine of 50,000 dinars ($16,000) and a prison sentence of five years. The prison sentence could double to 10 years if the offence involves a public official.

“Tunisian authorities must urgently reverse this significant backsliding on human rights,” said Heba Morayef, Amnesty’s regional director for the Middle East and North Africa. “They must cease this judicial harassment and release all those detained solely for the exercise of their freedom of expression and freedom of association.”

Tunisia is also witnessing an influx of sub-Saharan Africans who arrive hoping to catch a boat to Europe – and a purge of groups defending them.

On May 6, Saied repeated claims, without evidence, to his security council of “plots against Tunisia” pertaining to the presence of sub-Saharan Africans.

On the same day, Saadia Mosbah, president of the anti-racism organisation Mnemty (My Dream) and Mnemty programme coordinator Zied Rouin were jailed on “terrorism” and money laundering charges.

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The following day, Human Rights Watch said, the president and vice president of the United Nations-partnered Tunisian Refugee Council were arrested after inviting Tunisian hotels to bid to accommodate refugees.

This crackdown on their advocates comes as police persecution of the thousands of Black refugees and migrants in Tunisia increases, including deporting them to Libya, which Saied confirmed.

Mosbah remains in custody. Rouin was released shortly after his arrest.

European backing

As Tunisia retreats from the democratic gains of its revolution, it may have lost some of its sheen, but its status as a transit point for tens of thousands of sub-Saharan African refugees means it will remain a priority for European politicians who fear arrivals from “the south” on their shores.

Far-right ItalianPrime Minister Giorgia Meloni has visited Tunisia many times, most recently in April, to meet with Saied to discuss stemming migration in Tunisia before it proceeds north.

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Meloni’s eagerness to support Saied is matched only by that of the European Union, which has made millions of euros in financial aid available to help shore up Tunisia’s economy and border security despite rights abuses by the government being well documented.

Nevertheless, both the EU and the United States Department of State have expressed concern over these latest purges with State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel saying the raids are “inconsistent with what we think are universal rights that are explicitly guaranteed in the Tunisian Constitution and we have been clear about at all levels”.

No mention has been made of any further action.

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