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Biden's vision for a Palestinian state doomed, experts say: 'An explicit recognition of Hamas'

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Biden's vision for a Palestinian state doomed, experts say: 'An explicit recognition of Hamas'

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JERUSALEM — Reports the Biden administration and a small group of Middle East states will soon begin pushing a new peace initiative with the aim of creating a Palestinian state have drawn pushback from the Israeli government, which declared this week it will not accept “international diktats.”  

Regional experts also say such efforts are doomed to fail as they have in the past.   

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Last week, the Israeli government, including more moderate members of what is considered to be the most right-wing cabinet Israel ever, unanimously declared its opposition to any unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, saying such a move would only reward terrorism and prevent a future peace settlement.

“If a settlement is to be reached, it will come about solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions,” a statement issued by the government said.

ISRAELI SECURITY EXPERTS SAY BIDEN’S PALESTINIAN STATE PUSH IS AN ’EXISTENTIAL THREAT’

Benjamin Netanyahu, President Biden and Mahmoud Abbas (Sebastian Scheiner/Pool/AP via Getty Images; Chris Kleponis/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Jonathan Ernst/Pool/AP via Getty Images)

An Israeli media report over the weekend suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had, however, presented his security cabinet members with a discussion paper about Gaza, stating clearly that Israel plans to maintain security control over all land west of Jordan, including Gaza and other parts of the territories where Palestinians hope to establish an independent state.

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Israel has been battling the Iranian-backed terror group Hamas in the Gaza Strip since Oct. 7 when thousands of its terrorists crossed the border, murdering 1,200 people and taking some 240 people hostage. Even as Israeli troops gear up for what could be the final phase of the war, Netanyahu and his defense chief Yoav Gallant remain reluctant to discuss any broader future arrangements for the war-torn enclave.

Prof. Efraim Inbar, President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told Fox News Digital efforts by the U.S. administration to find a solution to the decades-old intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict were nothing new and, as in the past, efforts to bring about a Palestinian state, particularly under the current conditions, were unlikely to succeed. 

“What the Americans want, a revitalized Palestinian Authority, is nothing new. … We saw a similar attempt during the Bush era,” Inbar said. “I think the question we should be asking is why would a Palestinian state look any different to the Palestinian entities we’ve seen so far?”

Palestinian Hamas terrorists during a military show in the Bani Suheila district July 20, 2017, in Gaza City, Gaza. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Inbar said any future Palestinian state would need to be ready to “make some real compromises,” including recognizing the Zionist movement, accepting Israel as a Jewish state and Jerusalem as its capital and relinquishing some of its territorial dreams. 

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A Palestinian state would also have to exclude terror entities like Hamas, who Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh recently referred to as being “part of the Palestinian people” and “a partner in any future political entity.” 

A terrorist attack from Feb. 22, when three terrorists opened fire on commuters on the highway to Jerusalem near Ma’ale Adumim, murdering one civilian and wounding eight others. One of the terrorists was killed by an off-duty soldier on the scene. (Yoav Dudkevitch/TPS)

“These attempts are noble, but they did not succeed in the past, and I do not see that the current Palestinian leadership is ready to change the situation,” said Inbar. 

ISRAELI PARLIAMENT BACKS NETANYAHU, REJECTS PUSH FOR ‘UNILATERAL’ RECOGNITION OF PALESTINIAN STATE

Palestinians march during the funeral of Palestinian terrorists killed in clashes the previous day in the Israeli military operation in Jenin in the occupied West Bank July 5, 2023.  (Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP)

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Even Fatah, the Palestinian political faction led by the current Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, “are not the nicest of neighbors,” he said, noting that, in the past few months “dozens” of members of the Authority’s official security forces have carried out terror attacks against Israelis and that after 30 years of PA rule, the population had been indoctrinated to “hate Jews and Israel.” 

“I’m not optimistic about what a Palestinian state would look like at this stage,” Inbar said. He added the Palestinian people had also given up hope with their own leadership due to corruption and that any future Palestinian state would most likely carry the same political culture as others in the Arab world, namely dictatorships and tribalism. 

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become a clash over history as much as it is a battle of present-day politics.  (Kobi Natan/TPS)

Bassem Eid, a Palestinian human rights activist and political analyst, also expressed doubts about the success of a future Palestinian state based on past attempts to create a self-governing entity. 

“In my opinion, those leaders who are calling for a Palestinian state have forgotten one important thing – that a state must be built before it is recognized,” he said. 

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People march to the outpost of Eviatar near Tapuah junction, West Bank, April 10, 2023.  (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

Eid said there is no suitable infrastructure for a Palestinian state — no real economy and a society where the majority of the population still lived in refugee camps. 

“What kind of state would that be?” he wondered. “I don’t think that is the kind of state the Palestinians are hoping for.”

“My conclusion is that the Palestinians are not really qualified for a state,” he said, describing how the last attempt to create a Palestinian state was when Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon disengaged from Gaza. 

“He wanted to give the Palestinians Gaza so they could start building their own state, but look at what they did there. They turned Gaza from Singapore into ISIS,” he said. “I don’t think that calling for a Palestinian state right now is a legitimate demand.” 

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BIDEN ADMIN CONTINUES PUSH FOR TWO-STATE SOLUTION AS CRITICS WARN: ‘EFFORTS REPEATEDLY FAIL’

Members of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Palestinian Hamas movement, parade in Gaza City June 7, 2021. ( Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images)

Eid said he believed Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack “set the Israeli-Palestinian conflict backward 50 years” and that instead of calling for the creation of a Palestinian state, there should be international efforts to “build bridges to bring the Israelis and Palestinians together” after the trauma. 

He also said the focus now should move away from the Palestinian Authority, and from Hamas, who are both “specialists in destroying states,” and should be put instead on local Palestinian tribes. 

“Let’s call the tribes and give them a chance to rule,” said Eid. “I believe they will succeed in ruling the Palestinians much better than Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. At least let them try for the next five years, then probably a charismatic Palestinian leader will emerge, we can hold elections and then negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians can start.” 

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Khaled Hassan, a political risk and intelligence analyst with over 13 years of experience working in the Middle East, also said that prospects for the creation of a Palestinian state under the current conditions were dim. 

In this Feb. 11, 2020, file photo, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during a Security Council meeting at United Nations headquarters. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

“The establishment of a state requires tremendous efforts and international support, including a unified nationalist movement, similar to the Zionist Movement in the early 20th century,” he told Fox News Digital. 

“A Palestinian state would, most importantly, need Palestinian unity and Israeli recognition,” he said, adding that any discussion over who might lead this potential state would “most likely spark a civil war among Palestinians” and that “Israel was highly unlikely to recognize a Palestinian state.”

“A Palestinian state can’t be imposed on Israel,” Hassan said. “Arab states have for decades recognized a Palestinian state, but this has led to little to nothing in reality. Although, if there was American and British unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, that could result in unprecedented political, and legal, repercussions for Israel.” 

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Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shake hands prior to a meeting at the Muqata, the presidential compound in the West Bank city of Ramallah. (Saul Loeb/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

“It might not lead to a Palestinian state coming to life, but it would greatly diminish Israel’s standing within the international community,” he said. 

If such a state did successfully emerge, Hassan added, the Palestinians would grapple with finding suitable leadership. 

IRAN SETS MIDEAST ON FIRE AS CRITICS SAY BIDEN POLICIES FAILED: ‘FURTHER RECKLESSNESS’

“Hamas is demanding not only to be part of a future state, but to lead it,” he said. He said the creation of a state as a result of the Oct. 7 terror attacks would be “an explicit recognition of Hamas as a resistance movement whose attacks led to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

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“For Palestinians, the legitimacy of a political leader is largely based on their involvement in anti-Israel terror, so any Palestinian leaders who condemn terrorism are perceived as traitors and agents of Israel.” 

He noted that previous U.S. attempts to install a more moderate Palestinian leader, one that rejected terrorism, had “been met with staggering frustration.” 

“Public statements by the late Egyptian presidents Sadat and Mubarak, as well as U.S. President Bill Clinton have illustrated this,” said Hassan, recalling the widespread condemnation and boycott of Egypt due to its peace treaty with Israel. 

Yahya Sinwar, center, the elected leader of Hamas, appears during a ceremony for fighters killed by Israeli air strikes at Yarmouk football stadium May 24, 2021, in Gaza City, Gaza.  (Laurent Van der Stockt/Getty Images)

“Sadat described Arabs, including Palestinians, who boycotted Egypt over the talks as reckless ‘children and teenagers’ who should not be entrusted with the fate of Egyptians, Arabs and Palestinians,” he said. “His words still ring true 40 years later as the world watches what the recklessness of Palestinian leaders have brought upon their people and upon millions of Israelis who did not want this war.” 

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While the challenges to creating a Palestinian state appear insurmountable, Omer Zanany, head of the joint unit for peace and security at the Mitvim Institute and the Berl Katznelson Center in Israel, said Israelis under the current government were also likely to thwart the efforts. 

He said Israel faces two choices – continuing the war in Gaza at the risk of the conflict escalating to other fronts or seizing what might be a “historic opportunity to end the war, bring home the hostages and defeat Hamas by entering into negotiations for a two-state solution.” 

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Zanany, who heads a joint Israeli-Palestinian task force exploring the options, said there needed to be a gradual process that would bring enduring security for both Israelis and Palestinians. Such a process, he said, would put “hope” on the political horizon that would help to bring about crucial changes in both societies. 

“If we know there’s something that we can change, we have to begin with a process,” he said.”I am not talking about having peace tomorrow but about getting into a new track. And I think that’s exactly what Biden, Secretary of State Blinken and the Saudis are saying.” 

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How Cheap Drones Are Changing Wars Like the Ones in Ukraine and Iran

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How Cheap Drones Are Changing Wars Like the Ones in Ukraine and Iran

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A 3-D rendering of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone, a device with two triangle-shaped wings attached to a central fuselage. It has an engine the size of a small motorcycle’s and carries 110 pounds of explosives.

Engine the size of a small motorcycle’s

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Carries 110 pounds of explosives

One of the biggest takeaways of the war with Iran is that it has proven itself to be a surprisingly capable adversary against the United States. In addition to its willingness to go on the offensive, Iran has forced the U.S. and its regional allies to confront the rise of cheap drones on the battlefield.

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Iranian drones, made with commercial-grade technology, cost roughly $35,000 to produce. That is a fraction of the cost of the high-tech military interceptors sometimes used to shoot them down.

Note: Estimated price of munitions per unit. In practice, multiple interceptors are fired when targeting a drone. For instance, with the $80 bullet fired by the Centurion Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM), 75 rounds are fired in a second. Sources: Department of Defense, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Open Source Munitions Portal, SRC Inc, U.S. Army and U.S. Navy.

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Cheap drones changed the war in Ukraine, and they have enabled Iranians to exploit a gap in American defense investments, which have historically prioritized accurate but expensive solutions.

Countering drones has been a major priority for the Pentagon for years, according to Michael C. Horowitz, who was a Pentagon official in the Biden administration. “But there has not been the impetus to scale a solution,” he said.

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In just the first six days, the U.S. spent $11.3 billion on the war with Iran. The White House and Pentagon have not provided updated estimates, but the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, estimated in early April that the U.S. had spent approximately between $25 and $35 billion on the war, with interceptors driving much of the cost. Many missile defense experts also fear interceptor stockpiles are now running dangerously low.

Here is a breakdown of some of the ways the U.S. and its allies have countered Iran’s drones, and why it can be so costly.

Air-based strikes

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In an ideal scenario, an early warning aircraft spots a drone when it is still several hundred miles out from a target, and a fighter jet, like an F-16, is dispatched from a military base. The F-16 can then use Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) II rockets to shoot a drone from about six miles away.

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A 3-D rendering of an F-16 fighter jet firing an APKWS II rocket from under one wing. Two to three rockets are fired per drone, as per air defense protocol. Two APKWS II rockets and an hour of F-16 flight cost approximately $65,000, a little less than twice that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

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Two to three interceptors fired per drone

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Source: U.S. Navy, Department of Defense

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These types of defensive air patrols are cost-efficient, but haven’t always been available because of the vast scope of the conflict. Iran has also targeted early warning aircraft that the U.S. needs to detect a drone from that distance, according to NBC News.

The other option for detecting and shooting down drones is a variety of different ground-based detection systems, but these systems are all at a disadvantage, as their ability to spot low-flying drones is limited by the curvature of the earth.

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Anti-drone defense systems

One ground-based defense system the U.S. and its allies have built specifically to counter drones at a shorter range is the Coyote. It can intercept drones up to around nine miles away.

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A 3-D rendering of a Coyote Block 2 interceptor, which looks like a three-foot tube with small rockets at one end. Two Coyotes cost approximately $253,000 or about seven times that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

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The Coyote is significantly cheaper than many of the other ground-based defense systems available to the U.S. and its allies and historically effective at defending important assets. But despite being both effective and cost-efficient, relatively few Coyotes have been procured by the U.S. military in recent years.

When Iran-backed militias launched attacks on U.S. ground troops in the region in 2023 and 2024, there were so few Coyotes available that troops had to shuffle the systems between eight different bases in the region almost daily, according to a report from the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.

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Ship-based anti-missile defenses

Many of the longer-range ground-based defense systems the U.S. and its allies can use to combat drones are more expensive, as they are designed to shoot down aircraft and ballistic missiles, not drones. A Navy destroyer’s built-in radar system, for instance, can detect drones from 30 miles away and shoot it down with Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) interceptors. As in the air-based strikes, military protocol stipulates that at least two missiles be fired.

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A 3-D rendering of the deck of a Navy destroyer firing an SM-2 missile from a built-in launcher, which looks like a 15-foot missile launching from a grid of openings on the ship’s surface. Two SM-2 missiles cost approximately $4.2 million, about 120 times that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

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This misalignment between America’s defense systems and current warfighting tactics started after the Cold War, when the anticipated threats were fewer, faster, higher-end projectiles, not mass drone raids.

Iran often launches multiple Shahed-136 drones at a time, given their low price tag. The drones are also programmed with a destination before launch and can travel roughly 1,500 miles, putting targets all across the Middle East within reach.

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“This category of lower-cost precision strike just didn’t exist at the time that most American air defenses were developed,” said Mr. Horowitz.

Ground-based anti-missile defenses

The Army’s standard air-defense system is the Patriot. Typically stationed at a military base, it can shoot down a drone from up to around 27 miles away with PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors. Military protocol stipulates that at least two missiles be fired.

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A 3-D rendering of a Patriot launcher loaded with 17-foot PAC-3 MSE missiles, which looks like a tilted shipping container with scaffolding. Two PAC-3 MSE missiles cost approximately $8 million, about 220 times that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

Patriot missile defense system

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Air defense training teaches service members to prioritize using longer-range defense systems first to “get as many bites at the apple as you can,” but those are the most expensive, said Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security.

But a costly defense can still make economic sense to protect a valuable target, especially those that are difficult to repair or replace, such as the nearly $1.1 billion radar at a military base in Qatar and the $500 million air defense sensor at a base in Jordan that were damaged early in the conflict.

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Ground-based guns

Finally, there is what one might call a last resort: a ground-based gun. When a drone is about a mile away or less than a minute from hitting its target, something like the Centurion C-RAM can begin rapidly firing to take down the drone.

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A 3-D rendering of a Centurion C-RAM, which looks like a gun mounted to a rotating, cylindrical stand. The gun fires 75 rounds of ammunition per second. Five seconds of firing the gun costs $30,000, slightly less than a single Iranian Shahed-136.

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Centurion Counter-Rocket, Artillery and Mortar

Fires 375 rounds of ammunition in 5 seconds

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Even though it is fairly cost-effective, the Centurion C-RAM is not the best option because it has such a short range.

Interceptor drones

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There’s also what one might call the future of fighting drones: A.I.-powered interceptor drones. Interceptor drones like the Merops Surveyor can theoretically hunt and take down enemy projectiles from a short range.

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A 3-D rendering of a Surveyor drone, which looks like a three-foot tube with wings and a tail. The Merops drone costs approximately $30,000, a little less than a single Iranian Shahed-136.

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Merops system: Surveyor drone

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Eric Schmidt, the former Google chief executive, founded a company to develop the Merops counter-drone system in conjunction with Ukrainian fighters, who have already been combatting Iranian drones in the war with Russia for years.

The U.S. sent thousands of Merops units to the Middle East after the conflict began, but it is unclear whether they have been deployed. The military set up training on the system in the middle of the war, as reported by Business Insider.

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Other attempts to lower the cost-per-shot ratio of taking out a drone have failed.

The Pentagon invested over a billion dollars in fiscal year 2024 researching directed energy weapons, or lasers, that would cost only $3 per shot and have a range of 12 miles. Those systems have yet to be used in the field.

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Despite the cost imbalance, the real fear for many in the defense community is the depleted stockpile of munitions.

“What scares me is that we will run out of these things,” said Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Not that we can’t afford them, but that we’ll run out before we can replace them.”

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Moscow-born gunman dead after Kyiv shooting rampage leaves at least 6 dead, 14 wounded: Zelenskyy

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Moscow-born gunman dead after Kyiv shooting rampage leaves at least 6 dead, 14 wounded: Zelenskyy

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A Russian gunman was killed by special forces Saturday in Ukraine after opening fire at a supermarket in Kyiv, killing six people and wounding 14 others — including a 12‑year‑old boy.

The 58-year-old shooter long resided in the Donetsk region and was born in Moscow, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

He took at least four hostages, killed one of them, and fatally shot four others on the street, Zelenskyy said. Another woman died at a hospital from her injuries.

Graphic video captured by witnesses showed the gunman shooting at a victim within close range on the street. Other bodies were seen lying on the pavement and in courtyards.

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The gunman was seen walking with a weapon on the street. (Obtained by Will Stewart)

MANHUNT UNDERWAY AFTER GUNMEN STORM CHICK-FIL-A LEAVING 1 DEAD

Ukranian special forces stormed the convenience store after 40 minutes of failed negotiations, according to Klymenko.

At least fourteen people were wounded in the attack, though officials cautioned the number may rise as people continue to seek medical assistance.

Among the injured is a 12‑year‑old boy and a supermarket security guard, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko.

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The gunman was pictured dead in the convenience store. (Obtained by Will Stewart)

NINE DEAD, 13 WOUNDED IN SECOND TURKISH MASS SHOOTING IN TWO DAYS

Zelenskyy said the shooter also set fire to an apartment prior to the attack, though it is unclear if any injuries resulted from the arson.

“My condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post. “…We wish all the wounded a swift recovery.”

The gunman had previously been prosecuted for criminal offenses, but held a valid weapons permit, according to authorities. Investigators from the National Police and the Security Service of Ukraine are investigating.

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The gunman was seen holding and shooting a weapon in the street. (Obtained by Will Stewart)

GUNMAN OPENS FIRE AT HIGH SCHOOL IN TURKEY, WOUNDING AT LEAST 16

Ukraine’s security service labeled the attack an act of terrorism.

“All available information about him and the motives behind his actions is being thoroughly investigated,” Zelenskyy said. “Every detail must be verified.”

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One of the shooter’s neighbors, Hanna Kulyk, 75, described him as an “educated, refined man,” who lived alone and did not socialize often.

“You’d never guess he was some kind of criminal,” Kulyk told The Associated Press.

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Iran navy says any ship trying to pass Strait of Hormuz will be targeted

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Iran navy says any ship trying to pass Strait of Hormuz will be targeted

Top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says US naval blockade of Iran’s ports is ‘a clumsy and ignorant decision’.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC) says the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that any ship that attempts to pass through the waterway will be targeted, a dramatic reversal less than 24 hours after the critical shipping lane was reopened.

In a statement carried by Iran’s Student News Agency, the IRGC navy said on Saturday the strait will be closed until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian vessels and ports. It said the blockade was a violation of the ongoing ceasefire agreement in the US-Israel war on Iran.

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“We warn that no vessel of any kind should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted,” it said.

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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and a senior negotiator in talks between Washington and Tehran on ending the war, said in a television interview that “the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic”.

“The Americans have been declaring a blockade for several days now. This is a clumsy and ignorant decision,” he added.

The reassertion of control came just hours after Iran had briefly reopened the strait, in line with a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices dropped on global markets after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the waterway was “completely open for all commercial vessels.”

More than a dozen commercial ships passed through the waterway before the IRGC reversed course.

Iranian gunboats reportedly fired on two commercial ships on Saturday, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). India’s Ministry of External Affairs also said that two Indian-flagged ships were involved in a “shooting incident” in the strait.

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Some merchant vessels in the region received radio messages from the IRGC Navy, warning that no ships were being allowed through the strait.

US President Donald Trump said Tehran could not blackmail Washington by closing the waterway and warned that he would put an end to the ceasefire if a deal before its expiry on Wednesday is not reached. Trump added that the naval blockade would “remain in full force”.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, meanwhile, said the navy was ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.

‘Two competing blockades’

Al Jazeera correspondent Zein Basravi said that Iran and the US are back where they were the previous day.

“Less than 24 hours ago, world leaders were praising what they thought was a breakthrough in this conflict, hoping Iran was signalling a confidence-building measure by opening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to a ceasefire deal and a permanent end to the war,” he said.

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“As disappointed as people may be, this isn’t entirely surprising. What we’re seeing now is a return to square one,” he added, saying there are now “two competing blockades in place”.

Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem, reporting from Tehran, said Iran was using the strait to send a message.

“It’s clear that Iran is dealing with a situation in which they are not sure what’s on the table. So the Strait of Hormuz is once again the only space for engagement, even if it’s a negative engagement. And it’s the space where they are sending and conveying messages to the Americans, showing their leverage,” he said.

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