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As Trump brings the EU and China closer, reality pulls them apart

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As Trump brings the EU and China closer, reality pulls them apart
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Is China an “essential partner” to tackle the greatest challenges of our time or the “key enabler” behind the largest armed conflict on European soil since 1945?

At this stage, it just depends on who you ask.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has unleashed seismic changes across the globe, forcing nations to re-evaluate their alliances and rivalries in desperate search of shelter against the president’s go-for-broke policies.

His sweeping tariffs, in particular, have deeply unsettled governments, which are now seriously contemplating if the trade flows and supply chains on which they have relied for the past decades are about to crumble overnight, wreaking untold havoc.

For the European Union, an export-oriented powerhouse and staunch advocate of free markets, the Trump tariffs have hit like a slap in the face. Despite the White House’s surprise reversal, the bloc will still be subject to the 10% baseline rate. Additionally, steel, aluminum and cars will be under a punishing 25% levy. Trump has threatened further duties on foreign-made pharmaceuticals, a precious sector for the Europeans.

With transatlantic relations plunging at a vertiginous pace and the American market becoming increasingly prohibitive, Brussels is on the hunt for economic opportunities that can offset, even if partially, the shockwaves unleashed by Trump.

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China has quickly emerged as a prospective option.

Thanks to a vast middle class that is increasingly wealthier and, therefore, increasingly able to afford foreign-made goods, China represents a lucrative business partner that can provide European companies with new clients and fresh investment – exactly what they need at a time of stagnant growth at home and political turmoil abroad.

In 2023, the US was the top destination for EU-made goods (€501.9 billion) followed by China (€223.5 billion), according to Eurostat. However, China brought the largest share of goods into the bloc (€516.2 billion) after the US (€346.7 billion).

It was telling that a few days after Trump showed up at the Rose Garden and unveiled his self-styled “reciprocal tariffs”, Ursula von der Leyen held a phone call with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to discuss bilateral issues and the state of the global economy.

“In response to the widespread disruption caused by the US tariffs, President von der Leyen stressed the responsibility of Europe and China, as two of the world’s largest markets, to support a strong reformed trading system, free, fair and founded on a level playing field,” the European Commission said in its official read-out.

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The version released by Beijing was notably more optimistic and highlighted a “momentum of steady growth” in ties. “China is ready to work with the European side to promote the sound and steady development of China-EU relations,” Li told von der Leyen.

The exchange, peppered with explicit criticism of Trump’s policies (Li called them “economic bullying”), immediately fuelled speculation that the leaders were carefully planting the seeds for a rapprochement.

Von der Leyen, who during her first mandate spearheaded a new policy to de-risk from China, has in recent months softened her tone. Now, the Commission chief prefers to speak about a “transactional” foreign policy to “engage constructively” with Beijing.

The impression of a diplomatic thaw deepened a few days later when Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez flew to Beijing and met with President Xi Jinping. Sánchez described China as an “essential partner” in tackling modern-day challenges and made a plea to turn the page on the confrontational approach.

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“Spain is in favour of more balanced relations between the European Union and China, of finding negotiated solutions to our differences, which we have, and of greater cooperation in areas of common interest,” Sánchez declared.

Then, on Friday, the Commission delivered more news: Brussels and Beijing have agreed to take a second look at the option of “price undertakings” (minimum prices) to resolve the long-running dispute on China-made electric vehicles. The option was repeatedly floated last year but quietly abandoned due to a lack of progress.

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Diplomats from member states, which have been traditionally split on how to deal with China, have taken note of the developments, without rushing to issue a verdict.

“The EU wants and needs to be seen as a reliable partner in the world,” a diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “In that sense, the discussion with China is evolving because China is looking at us differently. I don’t think the European approach towards China has changed completely, but the winds are moving.”

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Reality check

The geopolitical winds might be moving – but not all blow in China’s favour.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his army had captured two Chinese citizens fighting alongside Russia inside Ukrainian territory. He later said his government had collected “precise data” indicating that more than 150 Chinese nationals had joined the war on Moscow’s side.

Ukraine’s security services say the Chinese citizens were recruited by Russia through advertisements, including on social media, but have been unable to verify whether the central government in Beijing was aware or involved in the operation.

“I think the United States of America should pay attention to what is happening today. And we expect after this, that this is another country that militarily supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – on the side of Russia. This is another one after Iran and the North Korean military,” Zelenskyy said.

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The Chinese Foreign Ministry struck back, saying the claims had “no basis in fact”.

“Let me stress that the Chinese government always asks Chinese nationals to stay away from areas of armed conflict,” said Lin Jian, the ministry’s spokesperson.

In Brussels, the news arrived just a few hours after von der Leyen spoke with Premier Li, almost like a reality check that dampened the fervor of a potential rapprochement.

For the past three years, the EU has been dismayed by Beijing’s hands-off position on the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which it consistently refers to as a “crisis”, and by the “no limits” partnership established between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. (Xi is expected to attend the 9 May celebrations in Moscow at Putin’s invitation. By contrast, he has refused to travel to Belgium for the EU-China summit in July.)

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High Representative Kaja Kallas left no doubt of her frustration.

“What is clear is that China is the key enabler of Russia’s war. Without Chinese support, Russia wouldn’t be able to wage the war in the amount that they are waging it. We see that 80% of the dual-use goods are actually entering Russia via China,” Kallas said, referring to the circumvention of Western sanctions.

“If China would want to really stop the support then it would have an impact.”

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Beijing’s close-knit friendship with Moscow has added to a string of grievances and tensions that have plunged EU-China relations to an all-time low.

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Other tensions involve the massive export of low-cost, made-in-China products, the heavy use of state subsidies to the detriment of foreign competitors, protectionist regulations that prevent European access to the Chinese market, surveillance of private citizens and companies, the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, aggressive behavior in the Taiwan Strait, the repression of the Uyghur minority in the Xinjiang region, violations of human rights, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

Any coordination between Brussels and Beijing to navigate the Trump tariffs is highly unlikely to deliver a resolution on this long – and unrelated – range of open fronts, all of which are complex and depend on factors that go well beyond the EU’s control.

Although some leaders like Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán advocate for a reset in relations, others remain profoundly skeptical. The coalition deal of the next German government, led by Friedrich Merz, reads: “We must recognise that the elements of systemic rivalry have now come to the fore as a result of China’s actions.”

The contradictions in public discourse – calls for closer cooperation next to stinging criticism – encapsulate the persistent difficulty in finding a common, uniform line of action on China among the 27 member states. The ambivalence has remained even as Beijing stood by the same country the bloc considers its main adversary – Russia – and is set to go on as the EU searches for new partners to face up to Trump’s disruption.

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Whether those partnerships are forged on genuine shared values or opportunistic pragmatism is an entirely separate matter.

“Current trade talks with China are not necessarily about working closer with Beijing: they are rather about using this strategic moment of uncertainty to negotiate new conditions and a new framework for engagement with China,” said Alicja Bachulska, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

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“It is not a return to ‘business as usual’. The EU would like to get some concessions from Beijing, such as enforceable rules on tech transfer from China or local content requirements, trying to ensure more value-added for the European economy. It remains unclear whether Beijing would be willing to do that.”

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Gazans Once Escaped To Rafah. Now Israel Is Razing It.

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Gazans Once Escaped To Rafah. Now Israel Is Razing It.

Last year, a million Palestinians fled to Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, to escape the brunt of Israel’s bombardment in its war against Hamas. When Israeli forces later invaded Rafah itself, they flattened areas along the border with Egypt, but many neighborhoods were largely spared the worst of the war.

That is no longer the case.

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The Israeli military has destroyed extensive parts of Rafah since it ended a cease-fire in March after talks with Hamas collapsed. In early May, after much of the destruction was already complete, Israel announced it would soon launch an “intensive” escalation of its campaign in Gaza. Over the previous two nights, strikes have killed dozens of Palestinians in Gaza, Palestinian officials said. On Tuesday, the Israeli military targeted Muhammad Sinwar, a top Hamas leader in Gaza, near a hospital in Khan Younis.

Satellite images analyzed by The New York Times show that the Israeli military has flattened large areas in and around the city of Rafah and built new military infrastructure in the last two months.

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Israeli leaders say capturing more territory inside Gaza will pressure Hamas to surrender and release the remaining hostages that the group has held since it led a deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Israel’s defense minister vowed that Israeli forces would “clear out” the areas and “prevent any threat,” including in Rafah.

Israeli security officials have previously said that tunnels between Egypt and Gaza have allowed Hamas to stock up on weaponry and other supplies.

In response to a question from The Times about the Israeli military’s operations in Rafah, the military said that it was part of an effort to secure operational control and conduct counterterrorism operations.

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“We will replicate the model implemented in Rafah in other areas of the Strip as well,” said Effie Defrin, the Israeli military spokesperson, in a press briefing last week.

Demolishing Block by Block

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Here is what the operation looks like on the ground: Four excavators could be seen in a video verified by The Times tearing down a row of buildings in Rafah’s Shaboura neighborhood in April. The video, first shared on an Israeli Telegram channel, was taken from an armored vehicle.

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Ali Abu Express via Telegram

Satellite imagery shows that hundreds of buildings were destroyed in this neighborhood during the month of April, including on the block where the video was filmed.

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Source: Satellite images via Planet Labs

Earlier this month, the Israeli security cabinet approved a new plan to call up tens of thousands of additional soldiers, to seize and hold territory in the embattled enclave, and to forcibly displace Palestinians to the south. But the satellite imagery shows the areas of the south where buildings are still standing are getting smaller and smaller.

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Another video shows four buildings destroyed in a controlled demolition. The video, uploaded on an Israeli soldier’s Instagram account and shared by the Palestinian journalist Younis Tirawi on his X account, was filmed in northern Rafah, where much of the destruction has taken place. Satellite image shows that the demolition took place sometime in April.

New Construction

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Israeli forces are not just clearing land. They are building on it.

One new road already stretches more than three miles from the Israeli border across Rafah into agricultural areas. It is protected by berms, trenches and several military outposts.

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And other construction is moving at a rapid clip, the satellite images show.

Several new military outposts, often graded, paved and surrounded by defensive walls, have been built across southern Gaza in the past month. Soldiers have also commandeered buildings to use as bases, such as an under-construction hospital.

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Source: Satellite image via Planet Labs

Israel calls the road it has constructed from the Israeli border the “Morag Corridor,” which Mr. Netanyahu said last month was intended to cut Rafah off from the rest of the enclave. The name is a reference to a Jewish settlement that existed in the area until Israel withdrew its soldiers and civilians from Gaza two decades ago.

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What the construction might mean for the long term is uncertain. Some Israeli officials have agitated for Israel to rebuild Jewish settlements in the enclave, but Mr. Netanyahu has rebuffed the prospect for now.

Mr. Netanyahu said last week, after much of the construction and razing in Rafah was already in progress, that Israel was “on the eve of a forceful entry to Gaza.”

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Rubio doubts 'anything productive' will happen in Ukraine peace talks without Trump, Putin

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Rubio doubts 'anything productive' will happen in Ukraine peace talks without Trump, Putin

Secretary of State Macro Rubio cast a pessimistic tone ahead of talks in Turkey now set for Friday after both Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump said they would not be in attendance. 

The peace talks, which were supposed to happen on Thursday, got thrown into disarray after both Russian and Ukrainian delegations, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, landed in various cities in Turkey as confirmation arrived that not only would Putin not be engaging in the discussions, but neither would senior members from the Kremlin.

According to reports, frustration grew as the delegations and mediators spent much of the day questioning when, and even whether, they would meet on Thursday before the meeting was ultimately pushed to Friday.

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One en route from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to Doha, Qatar, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

TRUMP TO SKIP RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE TALKS, CALLS ZELENSKYY THE ‘GREATEST SALESMAN, MAYBE IN HISTORY’

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“Frankly, at this point, I think it’s abundantly clear that the only way we’re going to have a breakthrough here is between President Trump and President Putin,” Rubio told reporters. “It’s going to require that level of engagement to have a breakthrough in this matter. 

“I don’t think anything productive is actually going to happen from this point forward… until they engage in a very frank and direct conversation, which I know President Trump is willing to do,” he added. 

The peace talks first came about after Putin suggested last week that Ukraine and Russia should engage in direct talks. Zelenskyy agreed and said those talks should be held by the leaders of the warring nations. 

Trump sparked surprise earlier this week when he suggested he might travel to Turkey from the UAE if progress was made in the talks on Thursday, but it was never previously suggested that the U.S. president, who was set to be wrapping up a Middle East tour, would be present for the negotiations. 

Zelenskyy Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2025. (Turkish Presidency/Murat Kula/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

PUTIN PROPOSES DIRECT PEACE TALKS WITH UKRAINE TO END WAR

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The Kremlin on Thursday confirmed Putin was not going to participate in the peace talks. 

Aboard Air Force One on Thursday, Trump suggested Putin did not attend because of a scheduling miscommunication and told reporters that there was no hope on any real progress in negotiations until he and Putin speak.

“Look, nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together. OK?” Trump said. “He was going to go, but he thought I was going to go. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there. 

“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” he added.

Any future plans for Trump and Putin to talk remain unknown.

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“What I can say with certainty is that the president’s… willing to stick with [this] as long as it takes to achieve peace,” Rubio said. “What we cannot do, however, is continue to fly all over the world and engage in meetings that are not going to be productive.

Marco Rubio

Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to the media following a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Antalya, on May 15, 2025, ahead of potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. (Umit Bektas/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

“The only way we’re going to have a breakthrough here is with President Trump sitting face to face with President Putin and determining once and for all whether there’s a path to peace,” he added.

Zelenskyy did not hold back in expressing his frustration over what he said is proof that Putin’s “attitude is unserious.”

“No time of the meeting, no agenda, no high-level of delegation – this is personal disrespect to Erdoğan, to Trump,” Zelenskyy reportedly said at a Thursday news conference after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

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US judge dismisses case against migrants caught in new military zone

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US judge dismisses case against migrants caught in new military zone

The magistrate ruled that apprehended migrants may not have been aware they were crossing into a military zone.

A United States judge in the southwestern state of New Mexico has dismissed trespassing charges against dozens of migrants apprehended in a military zone recently created under President Donald Trump.

The military zone is one of two so far that the Trump administration has created along the US-Mexico border, in order to deter undocumented migration into the country.

Entering a military zone can result in heightened criminal penalties. As many as 400 cases have since been filed in Las Cruces, New Mexico, alleging security violations and crimes like trespassing on restricted military property.

But starting late on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday, Chief US Magistrate Judge Gregory Wormuth began issuing dismissals at the request of the federal public defender’s office in Las Cruces.

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Wormuth ruled that the government had failed to demonstrate that the migrants knew they were entering a military zone.

“The criminal complaint fails to establish probable cause to believe the defendant knew he/she was entering” the military zone, Wormuth wrote in his orders dismissing charges.

The ruling is the latest legal setback for the Trump administration, as it seeks to impose stricter restrictions and penalties for undocumented immigration. But the president’s broad use of executive power has drawn the ire of civil liberties groups, who argue that Trump is trampling constitutional safeguards.

Establishing new military zones has been part of Trump’s strategy to reduce the flow of migration into the US.

Normally, the crime of “improper entry by an alien” carries fines or a prison sentence of up to six months. But trespassing on a military zone comes with steeper penalties than a typical border crossing, and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned of a possible combined sentence of up to 10 years.

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“You can be detained. You will be detained,” Hegseth warned migrants. “You will be interdicted by US troops and border patrol working together.”

On April 18, the first military zone was unveiled, called the  “New Mexico National Defence Area”. It covered a stretch of about 274 kilometres — or 180 miles — along the border with Mexico, extending into land formerly held by the Department of the Interior.

Hegseth has said he would like to see more military zones set up along the border, and in early May, a second one was announced near El Paso, Texas. That strip was approximately 101km or 63 miles.

“Let me be clear: if you cross into the National Defense Area, you will be charged to the FULLEST extent of the law,” Hegseth wrote in a social media post.

Hegseth has previously stated that the military will continue to expand such zones until they have achieved “100 percent operational control” of the border.

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Trump and his allies have frequently compared undocumented immigration to an “invasion”, and they have used that justification to invoke wartime laws like the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

In a court brief on behalf of the Trump administration, US Attorney Ryan Ellison argued that the new military zones were a vital bulwark for national security. He also rejected the idea that innocent people might be caught in those areas.

“The New Mexico National Defense Area is a crucial installation necessary to strengthen the authority of servicemembers to help secure our borders and safeguard the country,” Ellison said.

He noted that the government had put up “restricted area” signs along the border. But the public defender’s office in New Mexico argued that the government had not done enough to make it sufficiently clear to migrants in the area that they were entering a military zone.

In the US, the public defenders noted that trespassing requires that the migrants were aware of the restriction and acted “in defiance of that regulation for some nefarious or bad purpose”.

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Despite this week’s dismissals, the migrants involved still face less severe charges of crossing the border illegally.

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