World
Analysis: Trump’s policies set to widen EU-US innovation gap
As the curtain falls on 2025, policymakers in Brussels have yet to decisively counter the negative economic impacts of two major developments: the trade deal struck between the European Union and the United States this summer, and President Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, a mammoth piece of domestic legislation with global economic implications.
The EU’s slow progress toward improving relative business conditions at such a volatile moment has left investors frustrated and looking elsewhere.
According to a report published this week by the European Round Table for Industry, the leaders of the bloc’s industrial giants are “alarmed at the lack of urgency in delivering on Draghi and Letta’s bold reforms to restore the business case for investing in Europe.”
The report also points to a survey of CEOs conducted in October, which shows that only 55% expect to stick to their investment plans. Even worse, a mere 8% intend to invest more in Europe than they planned to six months prior, in contrast with the 38% who will either invest less than previously intended or have put decisions on hold.
And most tellingly, the US now attracts more investment than originally planned by 45% of respondents.
The ‘carrot-and-stick’ approach
The Trump administration’s combination of supply-side economics and protectionism has converted the necessity of avoiding US tariffs into a massive financial incentive for foreign companies and multinationals to invest in the United States directly.
The Big Beautiful Bill, which Trump signed into law in July, formalised huge tax breaks and effectively guaranteed incentives to shift investments across the Atlantic. Namely, the 100% bonus depreciation for new machinery and factories, as well as the 100% immediate expensing of domestic research and development (R&D) costs, mitigating the expenses of moving production and innovation to the US.
Companies have until 1 January 2026 to finalize their decisions and collect retroactive benefits for capital deployed in 2025, but the conditions will remain the same next year.
To compound the EU’s growing inability to compete, the heavily criticised EU-US trade deal was agreed in the same month. The agreement de-escalated the transatlantic trade war of 2025 but it levied a 15% tariff on the vast majority of the EU’s industrial exports to the US, with an exemption from duties for most US-made goods bound for the EU market.
In addition, the EU committed to spending over €640 billion in US energy, investing more than €500 billion in the US economy and buying around €35 billion worth of US-made AI chips, until the end of President Trump’s mandate. Meanwhile, the United States made no similar pledges.
As for corporations, the choice became simple: relocate investment to the US, avoid the tariff and claim massive tax deductions.
The innovation gap in numbers
The R&D siphon is the most critical threat to Europe’s future competitiveness, as the Trump administration’s new incentives pull core innovation to the US.
In the most innovative industries, such as the AI and healthcare sectors, the numbers for 2025 already demonstrate the chasm between the EU and the US.
In the first three quarters of this year, private investment flowing into US AI companies exceeded €100 billion, with the US capturing over 80% of global AI funding. In contrast, the entire EU attracted just shy of €7 billion, according to the widely read State of AI Report 2025.
This severe 15-to-1 funding deficit means the technological future is being built and scaled primarily outside the EU, something that has been recognised by the European Parliament.
Likewise, the EU is aiming to achieve 20% market share in semiconductor manufacturing by 2030, as outlined in the Chips Act, but experts say such a goal is unlikely given that Europe is among the slowest growers in the sector year-on-year.
Furthermore, the EU is even falling behind on AI adoption among young users, according to a new survey by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
As for the pharmaceutical industry, CEOs sent a stark warning to President von der Leyen back in April that “unless Europe delivers rapid, radical policy change then pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing is increasingly likely to be directed towards the US.”
In the following weeks, fuelled by the fear of the ongoing transatlantic trade war at the time and frustration with the European regulatory scene, the third largest company in Europe by market capitalization, the Swiss-based Roche, committed over €40 billion in US investment over the next five years. Likewise, the French multinational Sanofi announced an investment of €17 billion to expand manufacturing in the US through 2030.
In July, as the Big Beautiful Bill and the EU-US trade deal were being agreed, the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca also declared investing over €40 billion in the US over the next five years, including the construction of a chronic disease research centre in the state of Virginia, the company’s largest single investment in a facility to date.
In November, the White House announced a large-scale agreement between two pharmaceutical rivals, the American manufacturer Eli Lilly, and the Danish corporation Novo Nordisk, known for pioneering the prescription drug for type 2 diabetes, Ozempic, which has also been widely used off-label for weight loss.
The two companies agreed a strategy to reduce the prices of several medications for Americans and announced new investments in the US, with Novo Nordisk committing roughly €8.5 billion to expand US manufacturing capacity. In exchange, the Danish company is expected to receive a three-year exemption from US tariffs, among other benefits.
In total, the European pharmaceutical industry has pledged more than €100 billion for US expansion in 2025 alone with multi-year commitments.
The scramble to deregulate
The pressure applied by the US is evident as this year has seen the European Commission pivot to an aggressive deregulation agenda.
In response to a request from the European Council, six simplification proposals, referred to as “omnibuses”, have been presented since February covering energy, finance, agriculture, technology, defence and chemicals.
Notably, the so-called Digital Omnibus was introduced in November, and it includes delays to provisions of the AI Act and modifications to the GDPR.
These initiatives aim to rapidly cut red tape and reduce bureaucratic costs for European businesses in an attempt to stem the outflow of talent and capital. However, the proposed measures are still facing legislative scrutiny, as well as administrative oversight and political backlash from privacy and climate advocates, among others.
It was only this week that an agreement was finally reached on the first omnibus, another sign that the EU is still far from offering the immediate financial certainty of minimising or avoiding US tariffs while benefiting from President Trump’s policies where possible.
The numbers reveal the plain economic truth: while the EU debates the fine print of deregulation, the investment in innovation is already being decisively relocated.
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices rose in early trading Sunday as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is crucial to global energy supplies.
The price of U.S. crude oil increased 6.4% to $87.90 per barrel an hour after trading resumed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 5.8% to $95.64 per barrel.
The market reaction followed more than two days of lifted hopes and dashed expectations involving the strait. Crude prices plunged more than 9% Friday after Iran said it would fully reopen the strait, which it effectively controls, to commercial traffic.
Tehran reversed that decision and fired on several vessels Saturday after President Donald Trump said a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect. On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. attacked and forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that allegedly tried to get around the blockade. Iran’s joint military command vowed to respond.
Sunday’s higher prices wiped out much of the declines seen Friday, signaling renewed doubts about how soon ships will again transport the vast amounts oil the world gets from the Middle East.
The US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth week, has created one of the worst global energy crises in decades. Countries in Asia and Europe that import much of their oil from the Gulf have felt the most impact of halted supplies and production cuts, although rapidly rising gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.
Asked when he thought U.S. motorists would again see gas cost less than $3 a gallon on average, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices at the pump might not go down that much until next year.
“But prices have likely peaked, and they’ll start going down,” Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The price of crude oil — the main ingredient in gasoline — has fluctated dramatically since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and as Iran retaliated with airstrikes on other Gulf states. Crude traded at roughly $70 a barrel before the conflict, spiked to more than $119 at times, and previously closed Friday at $82.59 for U.S. oil and $90.38 for Brent.
Industry analysts have repeatedly warned that the longer the strait is closed, the worse prices could get.
A fragile, two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire Wednesday, while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz puts the fate of new talks to end the war into question.
Even if a lasting deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerges, analysts say it could take months for oil shipments to return to normal levels and for fuel prices to go down. Backed-up tanker traffic, shipowners concerned about another sudden escalation, and energy infrastructure damaged during the war are factors that could impede production and shipment volumes from returning to pre-war levels.
A gallon of regular gas cost an average of nearly $4.05 a gallon in the U.S. on Sunday, according to motor club federation AAA. That’s about 8 cents lower than a week ago, but far higher than $2.98 before the war.
Trump warns Iran it ‘can’t blackmail’ US with Hormuz closure
Fox News reports on heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reaffirms strict control over the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships. President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, states the US naval blockade will remain in full force. White House correspondent Alex Hogan provides updates on the escalating diplomatic and military standoff.
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Hundreds of commercial tankers are stranded on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut the critical chokepoint on April 18, halting traffic and leaving crews trapped amid reports of gunfire and “traumatic experiences” on board.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered an international waterway under international law, through which ships have the right of transit passage, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Iranian gunboats opened fire on a tanker the same day, while a projectile struck a container vessel, damaging cargo.
STARMER AND MACRON ACCUSED OF ‘PLAYING AT BEING RELEVANT’ WITH STRAIT OF HORMUZ PLAN
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that “U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are among the assets executing a blockade mission impacting Iranian ports.” (CENTCOM)
Audio released by maritime monitoring group TankerTrackers appears to capture the moment a vessel and its crew came under fire while approaching the strait, including a distress call from a crew member.
“Sepah Navy! Motor tanker Sanmar Herald! You gave me clearance to go… you are firing now. Let me turn back!” the crew member can be heard saying in the recording, according to TankerTrackers.
Iranian state media confirmed that shots were fired near vessels to force them to turn back, while the Ministry of External Affairs of the Government of India said the foreign secretary was deeply concerned.
Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line, told Fox News Digital that it had activated a crisis team as its crews remain stuck on board vessels in the region.
“We have been working from Friday afternoon until today with the entire crisis team to bring the vessels out — in vain, unfortunately,” said Nils Haupt, senior director of group communications at Hapag-Lloyd AG.
“These events can easily lead to traumatic experiences. There is also a significant risk from sea mines, which has made insuring vessels for passage through the Strait nearly impossible.”
LISA DAFTARI: HORMUZ WHIPLASH PROVES TEHRAN CAN’T HONOR ANY DEAL IT SIGNS
“The crews are well, but they are becoming increasingly impatient and frustrated. It is very unfortunate that we could not leave today,” he added. “Many ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf.”
“Our six ships are anchored near the port of Dubai, and all crews hope for an improvement in the situation,” Haupt said.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on April 18 that the strait would remain closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, warning ships not to move from anchorage or risk being treated as “enemy” collaborators.
Iran has previously argued that restrictions on its oil exports and shipping amount to “economic warfare,” framing actions in the Strait of Hormuz as a response to foreign pressure on its economy, according to statements from Iranian officials and state media in past incidents.
“Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and any violating vessel will be targeted,” the IRGC said in a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.
TRUMP ORDERS A BLOCKADE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TENSIONS WITH IRAN SOAR
Fishing boats dot the sea as cargo ships, in the background, sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz off the United Arab Emirates, Friday, March 27, 2026. (AP Photo)
The United States imposed the blockade on Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait, with U.S. Central Command saying the measures are being enforced “impartially against all vessels.”
Hapag-Lloyd said its vessels have been stuck for weeks following the initial closure after the outbreak of war with Iran on Feb. 28.
“For us, it is critical that our vessels can pass through the strait soon,” Haupt said.
“We offer all crew members unlimited data so they can video call loved ones and access entertainment. Crews are strong, but after weeks on board there is growing monotony and frustration.”
“One crew experienced a fire on board from bomb fragments. Others have seen missiles or drones near their vessels,” he added.
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“They are resilient, but each additional day makes the situation more difficult, more monotonous, and more stressful.”
President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed not to close the strait again but after the closure, Trump called the situation “blackmail” and said the U.S. would not back down.
Shops and schools shut in northern Israel as residents protested a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon that took effect on April 16, saying “nothing was achieved”. Israeli officials say operations may continue, with forces still deployed inside southern Lebanon.
Published On 19 Apr 2026
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