World

Analysis: The EU's €7.4-billion bet on Egypt comes with high risks

Published

2 months ago

March 18, 2024

Analysis: The EU's €7.4-billion bet on Egypt comes with high risks

After Tunisia and Mauritania, the European Union has found a new “strategic” partner to curb irregular migration: Egypt.

The European Union over the weekend signed a €7.4 billion “comprehensive partnership” with Egypt, a number well over the €700 million and €210 million deals respectively struck with Tunisia and Mauritania.

The logic behind the three deals is however the same: to inject fresh money to help stabilise a wobbly economy and curb flows of irregular migration.

As European Commission President Ursuval von der Leyen said from Cairo, Egypt could not be avoided “given your political and economic weight, as well as your strategic location in a very troubled neighbourhood, the importance of our relations will only increase over time”.

For Egypt, the need is particularly pressing: the country is in the midst of a devastating crisis caused by a perfect storm of high inflation, heavy debt, persistent trade deficit, rising interest rates and a shortage of foreign currency. The woes have been made considerably worse by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which disrupted global wheat markets and pushed food prices to record highs, and the Houthi attacks on the Suez Canal, which have partially deprived Cairo of $10 billion in annual revenues.

The spiralling turmoil led Egypt to request its fourth loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 2016 worth $8 billion (€7.3 billion). In exchange, the country has agreed to devalue its national currency, introduce a floating exchange rate, slow down its spending on infrastructure and preserve debt sustainability.

The €7.4-billion deal with the EU also has a strong economic dimension: €5 billion in concessional loans to support Egypt’s macro-economic reforms and €1.8 billion in additional investments under the bloc’s neighbouring policy, to boost renewable energy and digital connectivity. On migration management, the agreement earmarks €200 million to crack down on human smuggling and trafficking as part of a wider package of €600 million in non-repayable grants.

At first glance, the €200-million envelope appears small in comparison, especially given that curbing irregular migration is a priority shared by all 27 member states, regardless of their political inclination, and that Egypt currently hosts over 500,000 refugees from nearby countries, mostly Sudan and Syria.

But Brussels sees things holistically: putting cash in one place can spill over into others. Under this thinking, boosting Egypt’s domestic economy can do as much – or perhaps even more – to control irregular migration than boosting actual border controls.

In the past few years, the EU has seen a dramatic rise in asylum applications by Egyptian nationals: from 6,616 in 2021 to 26,512 in 2023, according to the bloc’s asylum agency (EUAA). Most of these claims were registered in Italy (69%), followed by Greece at a distant second (9%). This helps explain why Prime Ministers Giorgia Meloni and Kyriakos Mitsotakis joined von der Leyen’s trip.

Notably, the marked increase in requests for international protection has not corresponded with a proportional increase in recognition rates. The EUAA estimates between 6 and 7% of these requests were successful, a very low number.

“Egyptians who migrate abroad are understood to be influenced primarily by economic factors and the search for employment,” the agency said in a study published in 2022, to explain why most of these applications for international protection were rejected.

The findings note that Egyptians seeking to reach Europe do not depart from Egyptian shores, as maritime borders are carefully guarded. Instead, most travel to Lybia, and then attempt to cross the Mediterranean Sea. A minority opts to fly to Turkey and try to enter the bloc via Bulgaria or Greece.

Additionally, the agency highlights Egypt’s position as a transit country for migrants coming from the Horn of Africa, who often rely on the same smugglers as Egyptians do.

‘Untied and undesignated’

The agency, however, points out two additional “push factors” that are driving the exodus of Egyptian nationals: the repression of human rights and the “security situation,” a reference to the anti-terrorism campaign in the Sinai peninsula.

Since the 2013 coup, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a former general, has strengthened his grip on power, expanded his presidential prerogatives and deepened the military’s role in civilian life, prompting accusations of clientelism, cronyism and corruption.

As a result, organizations like Freedom House, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International describe Egypt as an authoritarian country where freedom of expression and assembly are legally recognised but severely restricted in practice. Courts, media and the private sector are subservient to the state and discrimination against minorities, such as LGBTQ+ people, Coptic Christians, Shiites and people of colour, is widespread. The reported use of torture and forced disappearance against political critics and dissenters have equally caused international alarm.

During her press conference with al-Sisi, von der Leyen vowed to “promote democracy and human rights” but did not elaborate further.

A Commission spokesperson later said human rights have been part of EU-Egypt relations since the entry into force of the Association Agreement in 2004 and would continue to be so under the reinforced partnership.

“There are many issues that need to be dealt with that require that we work with Egypt. We cannot pretend this country does not exist nor can we simply ignore it,” the spokesperson said, highlighting the work done to bring relief into the Gaza Strip.

The €5 billion in concessional loans will be disbursed under the agreement of “policy reforms,” the executive explained, but the ultimate use of this money, which will be wired straight into the Egyptian treasury, will be “untied and undesignated,” meaning the government will enjoy a comfortable margin of discretion for spending.

This big bet is flawed, says Claudio Francavilla, an associate director at Human Rights Watch, because it is overly focused on the fight against human trafficking and fails to address the rule-of-law decline that has contributed to the economic turmoil and pushed investors away from the country. Both the IMF and the EU statements spoke of the need to restore “confidence” to bring back foreign investment.

“The economic crisis in Egypt is very, very deeply intertwined with the human rights crisis,” Francavilla told Euronews.

“Egypt has pretty much a military authoritarian leadership that strangles every part of life in the country, including the economy, and through its repression has gotten rid that anything that resembles checks and balances on the power.”

“If you don’t address those issues, you’re simply kicking the can down the road,” he added. “The next crisis is just around the corner.”

Sara Prestianni, director of advocacy at EuroMed Rights, a human rights network, called on the bloc to make a “clear” link between pay-outs and the rule of law. Otherwise, the partnership “risks being only a legitimisation of the authoritarian drift that characterises al-Sissi’s regimes today. So, all these types of reforms, all this cooperation, must be strictly linked to conditionalities of respect for fundamental rights of the rule of law.”

Even if the Egyptian economy were to find a stable footing and Egyptian citizens had fewer reasons to leave their home country, as Brussels hopes under the multi-billion plan, there would still be an unresolved question over the fate of the Sudanese people and other nationalities who have sought refuge in the country or transit through its territory.

The European pressure to decrease irregular departures could encourage the Egyptian authorities to double down on their “repressive tools,” warns Andrew Geddes, the director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute (EUI), leading to greater suffering for those feeling war-torn nations.

“Asylum seekers in Egypt are very heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance, live in very bad conditions and have high unemployment levels. It’s unlikely that the resources provided by the EU will be directed by the Egyptian authorities to improve this situation,” Geddes told Euronews, calling the partnership a “transactional agreement.”

“The situation for asylum-seekers and refugees in Egypt may deteriorate and, for those that do try to move, the journeys may become even more dangerous and deadly.”

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World

‘SNL’ Cold Open Riffs on Trump Trial and His VP Picks

Published

3 hours ago

May 19, 2024

Press Room

‘SNL’ Cold Open Riffs on Trump Trial and His VP Picks

The 49^th season finale of “Saturday Night Live” opened with James Austin Johnson as Donald Trump speaking at the barricades of a Manhattan courthouse, in a nod to Trump’s ongoing legal woes amid his presidential campaign.

During the sketch, Johnson as Trump spoke about his “weird and depressing” state at the courthouse, saying, “I don’t like being in court because they say very mean things about me as I’m trying to sleep.” (It was reported that Trump fell asleep in court during proceedings.) He goes on to say, “Now that my defense is supposed to begin on Monday, I would love to testify; I’m not afraid to testify at all, I’m just not going to out of fear.”

He continues to say how he doesn’t want to go back to the White House, “But it appears people want to send me there.” Johnson’s Trump pokes fun at Trump’s rigged election claims, too. “For me, it’s much better for me to not win and say it was rigged.”

Making fun of Trump’s sexist comments about women (and how he once said Heidi Klum is “no longer a 10”), Johnson, as Trump says of a juror at his trial, “They call her juror 9, but to me, she’s like a six, baby.”

Johnson’s Trump then introduced three of his potential VP candidates. “We love to say ‘VP’, like ‘Veep’ with Elaine from ‘Seinfeld.’ She can’t dance!” He says he won’t announce his VP just yet. “In many ways, it will be determined by the winner of the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight.” Trump says he’s invited a few people from “my short bus––I mean my shortlist.”

He brings out South Carolina Governor Tim Scott (played by Devon Walker). “I’m here to help Trump win the Black vote,” he says. Trump adds, “I’m more popular than you among the Blacks, which is really saying something.” Walker, as Scott says, “Black people have called my support humiliating, but trust me, I am my own man!”

Trump then brings out South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (played by Heidi Gardner), wearing a red MAGA hat, holding a stuffed dog, and pointing a fake gun at the dog (a reference to her shooting a dog). “She shot a dog, which you really can’t do…but on the other hand, she shot a dog, which is pretty awesome.” Gardner, as Noem chimes in and says, “I kill goats, too!”

Finally, he wheels out his final VP pick, “The late great Hannibal Lecter!” Trump says, as Mikey Day as Hannibal Lecter is wheeled out in an orange jumpsuit and wearing the famous mask. “I think he’d really scare everybody at the border. “Get him out of here, he’s giving me Pence vibes,” says Trump, as Hannibal Lecter is then wheeled away.

Trump says it’s going to be “the summer of Trump. You’re gonna get that Trump espresso,” he sings in a reference to a Sabrina Carpenter song. Johnson, as Trump says he’ll be selling more Trump Bibles as well, along with a “Trump Torah.”

Trump finishes the cold open shouting, “In the words of my mentor, the late great Hannibal Lecter, “Live from New York, it’s Saturday night!”

This week’s “SNL” host is actor Jake Gyllenhaal, and Sabrina Carpenter stars as the week’s musical guest.

Watch the sketch below:

World

Blue flash caught in night sky over Spain, Portugal lights up social media

Published

3 hours ago

May 19, 2024

Press Room

Blue flash caught in night sky over Spain, Portugal lights up social media

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It’s a bird… it’s a plane… it’s a blue meteor? Fireball? Piece of a comet?

Whatever it was, it lit up the night sky for millions of people early Sunday morning in Spain and Portugal. Social media users took stunning pictures and videos for all to revel in the natural science phenomenon.

The spectacular sight crossed the night sky at 12:46 a.m., according to CCTV footage released by the mayor’s office in Cádiz.

The European Space Agency (ESA) Operations says the “blue meteor” everyone is referring to was actually “a small piece of a comet” that flew over the European countries at the speed of 45 kilometers a second, which is equivalent to almost 28 miles.

MERGER OF MASSIVE BLACK HOLES FROM EARLY UNIVERSE UNCOVERED BY WEBB TELESCOPE, SCIENTISTS SAY

It burned up over the Atlantic Ocean at an altitude of 60 kilometers, or more than 37 miles above the surface.

“The likelihood of any meteorites being found is very low,” ESA Operations tweeted after the agency’s Planetary Defence Office analyzed the size and trajectory of the object.

SCIENTISTS DISCOVER LARGE, ‘COTTON CANDY-LIKE’ PLANET WITH UNUSUALLY LOW DENSITY

The night sky in Cadiz, Spain, prior to the fireball’s appearance. (Ayuntamiento de Cadiz via Storyful)

Cadiz mayor's office camera captures fireball

The moment the blue fireball first appeared on the camera rolling at the Cadiz mayor’s office. (Ayuntamiento de Cadiz via Storyful)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration explains the color was likely due to magnesium, and that “meteor color depends on whether the metal atom emissions or the air plasma emissions dominate.”

The blue fireball lit up Spain’s sky early in the morning May 19, 2024. (Ayuntamiento de Cadiz via Storyful)

“Short-period comets, also known as periodic comets, originate from a disk-shaped band of icy objects known as the Kuiper Belt beyond Neptune’s orbit, with gravitational interactions with the outer planets dragging these bodies inward, where they become active comets,” Space.com states.

Many on social media referred to what they witnessed as a “once in a lifetime sight,” according to news.com.au, with at least one joking, “That’s no meteor, that’s Optimus Prime.”

Fox News’ Mitch Picasso contributed to this report.

World

How is Azerbaijan involved with France and New Caledonia?

Published

4 hours ago

May 19, 2024

Press Room

How is Azerbaijan involved with France and New Caledonia?

France has accused Azerbaijan of meddling in its Pacific territory, New Caledonia, by supporting independence movements and spreading disinformation, amid broader geopolitical tensions.

France has accused Azerbaijan of meddling in its Pacific archipelago territory of New Caledonia.

Despite the vast geographical and cultural distance between the Caspian state and the French Pacific territory, this claim is rooted in a complex web of historical, political, and diplomatic tensions.

The Crisis in New Caledonia

New Caledonia, located between Australia and Fiji, is a French territory with a history of striving for independence.

The recent unrest in New Caledonia was ignited by a new electoral law perceived by the indigenous Kanak population as discriminatory.

This law allows people who have lived in New Caledonia for at least ten years the right to vote in local elections, which pro-independence supporters argue will dilute the Kanak vote.

France’s Accusations

France’s Interior Minister, Gérald Darmanin, has publicly stated that Azerbaijan, along with China and Russia, is interfering in New Caledonia’s internal matters. “This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” Darmanin told the France 2 TV channel, emphasizing the seriousness of the allegations.

The French government points to the sudden appearance of Azerbaijani flags at Kanak independence protests and the backing of separatists by groups linked to Baku.

Azerbaijan has vehemently denied any involvement, calling the accusations baseless. “We completely reject the baseless accusations,” said Ayhan Hajizadeh, a spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry. “We refute any connection between the leaders of the struggle for freedom in Caledonia and Azerbaijan.”

A significant element in this story is the Baku Initiative Group, established during a conference in July 2023 in Azerbaijan. This group, which includes participants from various French territories seeking independence, aims to support anti-colonial movements against France.

The group has expressed solidarity with the Kanak people and condemned the recent electoral reforms in New Caledonia. “We stand in solidarity with our Kanak friends and support their fair struggle,” the Baku Initiative Group stated.

Why are France and Azerbaijan clashing diplomatically?

The tensions between France and Azerbaijan extend beyond New Caledonia. France is a traditional ally of Armenia, Azerbaijan’s historical rival, particularly regarding the contentious Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Following the 2020 war and a subsequent 2023 offensive by Azerbaijan to reclaim control of Nagorno-Karabakh, France has openly supported Armenia.

This support includes defence agreements and military equipment supplies, fuelling further animosity from Azerbaijan. Darmanin referred to Azerbaijan as a “dictatorship,” highlighting the deep-seated distrust.

France has also accused Azerbaijan of engaging in disinformation campaigns to destabilise its territories. Pro-Azerbaijani social media accounts have been linked to the spread of misleading content about the French police’s actions in New Caledonia.

A French government source mentioned a “pretty massive campaign, with around 4,000 posts generated by (these) accounts,” aimed at inciting violence and mistrust.

This follows France recalling its ambassador to Azerbaijan in April, with President Macron expressing regret for Azerbaijan’s actions, along with his hope that the Azerbaijanis would clarify their intentions.

Why New Caledonia?

While Azerbaijan’s direct interest in New Caledonia might seem far-fetched, it fits into a broader strategy of challenging the French colonial legacy and supporting separatist movements.

By aligning with anti-colonial sentiments, Azerbaijan aims to position itself as a champion of liberation movements, simultaneously discrediting France on the international stage.

This effort is seen as part of a broader geopolitical manoeuvering, including Azerbaijan’s efforts to tarnish France’s image, as noted by its alleged disinformation campaign against France’s capability to host the Olympic Games.

The heightened tensions have had further repercussions. The French Sports Minister cancelled the Olympic flame’s journey through New Caledonia, for security reasons, but also an action that reflects the severity of the unrest and the accusations of foreign interference.

The involvement of Azerbaijan in New Caledonia’s unrest is a multifaceted issue rooted in broader geopolitical rivalries and historical grievances.

For Azerbaijan, supporting independence movements in French territories is a way to strike back at France for its support of Armenia and to bolster its own international standing.

For France, these actions represent a direct challenge to its sovereignty and stability in its overseas territories, prompting strong accusations and heightened tensions between Paris and Baku.