World
Analysis: The EU's €7.4-billion bet on Egypt comes with high risks
After Tunisia and Mauritania, the European Union has found a new “strategic” partner to curb irregular migration: Egypt.
The European Union over the weekend signed a €7.4 billion “comprehensive partnership” with Egypt, a number well over the €700 million and €210 million deals respectively struck with Tunisia and Mauritania.
The logic behind the three deals is however the same: to inject fresh money to help stabilise a wobbly economy and curb flows of irregular migration.
As European Commission President Ursuval von der Leyen said from Cairo, Egypt could not be avoided “given your political and economic weight, as well as your strategic location in a very troubled neighbourhood, the importance of our relations will only increase over time”.
For Egypt, the need is particularly pressing: the country is in the midst of a devastating crisis caused by a perfect storm of high inflation, heavy debt, persistent trade deficit, rising interest rates and a shortage of foreign currency. The woes have been made considerably worse by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which disrupted global wheat markets and pushed food prices to record highs, and the Houthi attacks on the Suez Canal, which have partially deprived Cairo of $10 billion in annual revenues.
The spiralling turmoil led Egypt to request its fourth loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 2016 worth $8 billion (€7.3 billion). In exchange, the country has agreed to devalue its national currency, introduce a floating exchange rate, slow down its spending on infrastructure and preserve debt sustainability.
The €7.4-billion deal with the EU also has a strong economic dimension: €5 billion in concessional loans to support Egypt’s macro-economic reforms and €1.8 billion in additional investments under the bloc’s neighbouring policy, to boost renewable energy and digital connectivity. On migration management, the agreement earmarks €200 million to crack down on human smuggling and trafficking as part of a wider package of €600 million in non-repayable grants.
At first glance, the €200-million envelope appears small in comparison, especially given that curbing irregular migration is a priority shared by all 27 member states, regardless of their political inclination, and that Egypt currently hosts over 500,000 refugees from nearby countries, mostly Sudan and Syria.
But Brussels sees things holistically: putting cash in one place can spill over into others. Under this thinking, boosting Egypt’s domestic economy can do as much – or perhaps even more – to control irregular migration than boosting actual border controls.
In the past few years, the EU has seen a dramatic rise in asylum applications by Egyptian nationals: from 6,616 in 2021 to 26,512 in 2023, according to the bloc’s asylum agency (EUAA). Most of these claims were registered in Italy (69%), followed by Greece at a distant second (9%). This helps explain why Prime Ministers Giorgia Meloni and Kyriakos Mitsotakis joined von der Leyen’s trip.
Notably, the marked increase in requests for international protection has not corresponded with a proportional increase in recognition rates. The EUAA estimates between 6 and 7% of these requests were successful, a very low number.
“Egyptians who migrate abroad are understood to be influenced primarily by economic factors and the search for employment,” the agency said in a study published in 2022, to explain why most of these applications for international protection were rejected.
The findings note that Egyptians seeking to reach Europe do not depart from Egyptian shores, as maritime borders are carefully guarded. Instead, most travel to Lybia, and then attempt to cross the Mediterranean Sea. A minority opts to fly to Turkey and try to enter the bloc via Bulgaria or Greece.
Additionally, the agency highlights Egypt’s position as a transit country for migrants coming from the Horn of Africa, who often rely on the same smugglers as Egyptians do.
‘Untied and undesignated’
The agency, however, points out two additional “push factors” that are driving the exodus of Egyptian nationals: the repression of human rights and the “security situation,” a reference to the anti-terrorism campaign in the Sinai peninsula.
Since the 2013 coup, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a former general, has strengthened his grip on power, expanded his presidential prerogatives and deepened the military’s role in civilian life, prompting accusations of clientelism, cronyism and corruption.
As a result, organizations like Freedom House, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International describe Egypt as an authoritarian country where freedom of expression and assembly are legally recognised but severely restricted in practice. Courts, media and the private sector are subservient to the state and discrimination against minorities, such as LGBTQ+ people, Coptic Christians, Shiites and people of colour, is widespread. The reported use of torture and forced disappearance against political critics and dissenters have equally caused international alarm.
During her press conference with al-Sisi, von der Leyen vowed to “promote democracy and human rights” but did not elaborate further.
A Commission spokesperson later said human rights have been part of EU-Egypt relations since the entry into force of the Association Agreement in 2004 and would continue to be so under the reinforced partnership.
“There are many issues that need to be dealt with that require that we work with Egypt. We cannot pretend this country does not exist nor can we simply ignore it,” the spokesperson said, highlighting the work done to bring relief into the Gaza Strip.
The €5 billion in concessional loans will be disbursed under the agreement of “policy reforms,” the executive explained, but the ultimate use of this money, which will be wired straight into the Egyptian treasury, will be “untied and undesignated,” meaning the government will enjoy a comfortable margin of discretion for spending.
This big bet is flawed, says Claudio Francavilla, an associate director at Human Rights Watch, because it is overly focused on the fight against human trafficking and fails to address the rule-of-law decline that has contributed to the economic turmoil and pushed investors away from the country. Both the IMF and the EU statements spoke of the need to restore “confidence” to bring back foreign investment.
“The economic crisis in Egypt is very, very deeply intertwined with the human rights crisis,” Francavilla told Euronews.
“Egypt has pretty much a military authoritarian leadership that strangles every part of life in the country, including the economy, and through its repression has gotten rid that anything that resembles checks and balances on the power.”
“If you don’t address those issues, you’re simply kicking the can down the road,” he added. “The next crisis is just around the corner.”
Sara Prestianni, director of advocacy at EuroMed Rights, a human rights network, called on the bloc to make a “clear” link between pay-outs and the rule of law. Otherwise, the partnership “risks being only a legitimisation of the authoritarian drift that characterises al-Sissi’s regimes today. So, all these types of reforms, all this cooperation, must be strictly linked to conditionalities of respect for fundamental rights of the rule of law.”
Even if the Egyptian economy were to find a stable footing and Egyptian citizens had fewer reasons to leave their home country, as Brussels hopes under the multi-billion plan, there would still be an unresolved question over the fate of the Sudanese people and other nationalities who have sought refuge in the country or transit through its territory.
The European pressure to decrease irregular departures could encourage the Egyptian authorities to double down on their “repressive tools,” warns Andrew Geddes, the director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute (EUI), leading to greater suffering for those feeling war-torn nations.
“Asylum seekers in Egypt are very heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance, live in very bad conditions and have high unemployment levels. It’s unlikely that the resources provided by the EU will be directed by the Egyptian authorities to improve this situation,” Geddes told Euronews, calling the partnership a “transactional agreement.”
“The situation for asylum-seekers and refugees in Egypt may deteriorate and, for those that do try to move, the journeys may become even more dangerous and deadly.”
World
'It Ends With Us' director Justin Baldoni sues New York Times for libel over Blake Lively story
“It Ends With Us” director Justin Baldoni sued The New York Times for libel on Tuesday over its story on allegations that he sexually harassed and sought to smear the reputation of the film’s star, Blake Lively.
The lawsuit seeking at least $250 million was filed in Los Angeles Superior Court, the next major move in a growing story that has made major waves in Hollywood. It alleges the Times and Lively coordinated a smear campaign against Baldoni and his nine fellow plaintiffs.
The Times stood by its reporting and said it plans to “vigorously defend” against the lawsuit.
The plaintiffs include the film’s lead producer Jamey Heath, its production company Wayfarer Studios, and crisis communications expert Melissa Nathan, whose text message was quoted in the headline of the Dec. 21 Times story: “‘We Can Bury Anyone’: Inside a Hollywood Smear Machine.”
Written by Megan Twohey, Mike McIntire and Julie Tate, the story was published just after Lively filed a legal complaint that is usually a predecessor to a lawsuit with the California Civil Rights Department over her alleged treatment.
Both her legal complaint and the Times story allege Baldoni enlisted publicists and crisis managers in a plan to destroy Lively’s reputation if she went public with her on-set concerns.
Baldoni’s lawsuit says the newspaper “relied almost entirely on Lively’s unverified and self-serving narrative, lifting it nearly verbatim while disregarding an abundance of evidence that contradicted her claims and exposed her true motives. But the Times did not care.”
A spokesperson for the Times, Danielle Rhoades, said in a statement that “our story was meticulously and responsibly reported.”
“It was based on a review of thousands of pages of original documents, including the text messages and emails that we quote accurately and at length in the article. To date, Wayfarer Studios, Mr. Baldoni, the other subjects of the article and their representatives have not pointed to a single error,” the statement said.
But the lawsuit says that “If the Times truly reviewed the thousands of private communications it claimed to have obtained, its reporters would have seen incontrovertible evidence that it was Lively, not Plaintiffs, who engaged in a calculated smear campaign.”
Lively is not a defendant in the lawsuit. Her lawyers said in a statement that “Nothing in this lawsuit changes anything about the claims advanced in Ms. Lively’s California Civil Rights Department Complaint.”
The romantic drama “It Ends With Us,” an adaptation of Colleen Hoover’s bestselling 2016 novel, was released in August, exceeding box office expectations with a $50 million debut. But the movie’s release was shrouded by speculation over discord between Lively and Baldoni. Baldoni took a backseat in promoting the film while Lively took centerstage along with her husband Ryan Reynolds, who was on the press circuit for “Deadpool & Wolverine” at the same time.
Lively came to fame through the 2005 film “The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants,” and bolstered her stardom on the TV series “Gossip Girl” from 2007 to 2012. She has since starred in films including “The Town” and “The Shallows.”
Baldoni starred in the TV comedy “Jane the Virgin,” directed the 2019 film “Five Feet Apart” and wrote “Man Enough,” a book pushing back against traditional notions of masculinity. He responded to concerns that “It Ends With Us” romanticized domestic violence, telling the AP at the time that critics were “absolutely entitled to that opinion.”
He was dropped by his agency, WME, immediately after Lively filed her complaint and the Times published its story.
___
Associated Press writer Ryan Pearson contributed to this story.
World
Republican congressman calls on incoming administration to target 'The Axis of Aggressors'
As the 119th Congress prepares for an opening session on January 3rd, one Republican Congressman appeals to the incoming Trump administration to advance U.S. interests and target foreign malign actors.
In a letter obtained by Fox News Digital, South Carolina Republican Rep. Joe Wilson calls on Secretary of State nominee, Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and National Security Advisor nominee, Representative Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) to “prioritize using U.S. law enforcement mechanisms to expose and dismantle Georgian sanctions evasion schemes, scam call centers, and other illicit Georgian Dream enterprises.”
FORMER GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER SAYS NATION’S ELECTION WAS ‘RIGGED,’ AND ‘WRITTEN IN MOSCOW’
The letter comes after the United States imposed sanctions on Georgia’s former Prime Minister and Russia made billionaire, country’s de-facto ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili.
These operations, according to the congressman’s letter, enable Ivanishvili’s regime to profit from atrocities such as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, “which is abetted by Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian complicity”.
On December 27th, Ivanishvili was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for “undermining the democratic and Euro-Atlantic future of Georgia for the benefit of the Russian federation”.
Congressman Wilson, who chairs The Helsinki Commission, calls sanctions on Ivanishvili a “significant step forward” and urges the incoming administration to extend sanctions to Ivanishvili’s immediate family members and cronies:
“This is a key opportunity to advance our shared goals of defending democracy and countering malign influence worldwide. The Axes of Aggressors would be deprived of a significant force multiplier should Georgia return to rule by the Georgian people,” – the letter reads.
GEORGIAN PM PRAISES COUNTRY’S PROTEST CRACKDOWN DESPITE US CONDEMNATION
Wilson’s letter is a continuation in the series of public outcries among Georgia watchers in the United States and Europe following Georgian Dream’s highly disputed victory in October parliamentary elections and government’s subsequent decision to pause its accession to the European Union that led to massive daily demonstrations throughout the country.
Local and international election observers, including International Republican Institute’s (IRI) mission, concluded elections were “fundamentally flawed”.
“Reflecting on what IRI’s mission observed and on what has transpired since the election, only new elections can restore the Georgian people’s confidence in their government’s legitimacy,” said IRI President Dan Twining.
Despite domestic and international calls for new elections, a single party parliament conveyed to anoint the only presidential candidate, former soccer player and a hard-line West critic Mikheil Kavelashvili on December 29th in an inauguration ceremony, visibly missing foreign dignitaries and guests.
Georgian Dream officials have repeatedly downplayed the prospect of U.S. sanctions. Minutes after the Treasury’s announcement, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze claimed – “in reality, nothing has changed”.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER BLASTS UKRAINE PEACE DEAL REPORTEDLY FLOATED BY TRUMP’S TEAM: ‘NOT HAPPY’
Kobakhidze, as well as other party leaders, also voiced optimism about “positive changes” after President Trump will take office on January 20th. However, this scenario is unlikely, according to Laura Linderman, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.
“Given that Trump’s national security team would likely pursue an even tougher stance against countries aligned with China and Iran, Georgian Dream’s apparent calculation that they would receive more favorable treatment under a Trump administration is misguided,” Linderman tells Fox News Digital.
Linderman also says congressional Republicans are largely united in their support for Georgia’s democratic future and “Trump would be unlikely to expend political capital challenging the bipartisan consensus on Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic path”.
In recent years Ivanishvilis’s Georgian Dream government has increasingly isolated itself from the West and has aligned with authoritarian regimes. Georgia – until recently – a strategic U.S. partner has now formalized such partnership with China, has favoured Chinese companies over American investments, adopted Russian style “foreign agent” law, and suspended EU accession talks. This year alone, PM Kobakhidze has paid a number of visits to Iran. In Tehran he attended both – funeral of late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and inauguration of the new president Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in with chants of “Death to America, Israel”
Heritage Foundations Senior Counselor and leading foreign policy expert James Carafano tells Fox News Digital, that regimes that are leaning on support from Moscow and Beijing are going to find that “playtime is over”, adding they cannot expect a “favorable or indifferent hand” from the Trump administration.
“If there are U.S. interests at stake, and there are some in Georgia, governments that want to lean on Moscow are likely to not only get a cold shoulder from Trump, they are probably going to get hit with the shoulder pads,” Carafano says.
World
From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025
Voting in Europe during 2025 promises major political shifts – Germany’s snap Bundestag vote, Romania’s presidential race, Poland’s referendum on Tusk’s government and the rise of populist forces in Czechia, Norway and beyond. These contests could reshape the future of the European Union.
If 2024 was a year marked by elections around the world – featuring Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the consolidation of right-wing parties in the EU elections, a political shift in the UK from the Conservatives to Labour, and the re-election of Narendra Modi in India – 2025 promises to bring its own set of surprises in Europe.
Here’s a round-up of the key elections taking place in 2025 and what we can expect:
Germany: back in the European political game ?
After the Bundestag’s vote of no-confidence on Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 16 December 2024, snap elections are due to take place on 23 February 2025.
The electoral campaign has been marked by the attack on Magdeburg’s Christmas market on 20 December by a doctor, who is also refugee from Saudi Arabia. Though attacker held Islamophobic views, according to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, and expressed support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) party, the incident has nonetheless crystallised anti-immigration sentiment in a region of eastern Germany already won over by the AFD.
The AfD is currently polling at 20%, second behind the CDU/CSU (32%), which has capitalised on the rejection of the SPD-Grunen-FDP coalition. The CDU is headed by Friedrich Merz, a potential future chancellor, who is proposing a policy that is more economically liberal than under Merkel and more conservative socially, for example on the issue of migration.
Merz, who rose during the Helmut Khol era, is committed to a more integrated Europe. He wants to relaunch relations with France and Poland, criticises Europe’s heavy dependence on the United States and calls for Taurus Cruise missiles to be sent to Ukraine.
Romania: a tense presidential race after foreign meddling and the rise of anti-EU populism
Romania will hold new presidential elections in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of voting. The court’s decision came following concerns over foreign interference in an election where the centrist, pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi and far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu advanced to the second round.
The ruling followed evidence of Russian interference in the election, particularly the artificial boost Georgescu received on social media platforms, notably TikTok. Until then, Georgescu was relatively unknown to the public, but his online support alarmed authorities.
Meanwhile, the legislative elections, which were not annulled, saw a victory for the Social Democrats.
A new presidential vote is expected to take place in the first half of 2025. Official proceedings launched by the European Commission against TikTok under the Digital Services Act will provide deeper insight into how the platform’s algorithms function during elections.
Poland: a test of Tusk’s government approval amid strong right-wing opposition
The upcoming presidential elections in May in Poland are shaping up to feel like a referendum on the government led by Donald Tusk, in power since December 2023, which unites parties from the left to the centre-right. While it is Prime Minister Tusk (Civic Platform) who holds significant sway over day-to-day governance, the President still plays a crucial role. Current President Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party, who has held the position for eight years prior to Tusk’s return, has used his veto power to block many of the government’s policies.
The presidential race is now a showdown between candidates from the two main parties: Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw for Civic Platform (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who will represent PiS. Although the race is tight, opinion polls suggest that the Civic Platform is likely to emerge victorious.
Italy: local elections challenge the stability of a government on shaky ground
An important electoral test awaits Giorgia Meloni next September, as elections will be held in six regions: Puglia, Campania, Le Marche, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, and Veneto. These elections will offer a snapshot of Italian public opinion on the relatively stable Meloni government, at least by Italian standards. Last November, coalition parties were outflanked by the centre-left coalition in the regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria – a setback for Meloni.
The Veneto region will come under particular scrutiny, given its large population and long history of being governed by the populist League, a key player in the ruling coalition.
In Puglia, MEP Antonio Decaro, chair of the Environment committee and of the Democratic Party could run as governor.
Czech Republic: the risk of a strong Europhobic axis in Central Europe
In Czechia, parliamentary elections will take place in October 2025.
The latest polls give ANO (which sits with The Patriots in the European Parliament), led by populist Andrej Babiš, 34.5% of the vote, well ahead The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) – with ECR in the EP-, led by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala, expected to win 13.7%, followed by the center-right STAN party (EPP) – 11%.
Babis’ victory would strengthen a far-right axis in Central Europe, which includes Hungary’s Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. The billionaire former prime minister has been dubbed the “Czech Trump”. Anti-elite and anti-migrant, he is also opposed to more European Union integration and shows complacency towards Russia. Many fear attacks against democracy in Czechia if he returns to power.
Croatia: the reelection of a ‘nationalist’
Croatians will elect their President of the Republic in a second round run-off on 12 January. Zoran Milanovic, the current head of state, is standing for re-election. Heis running as an independent but is supported by a coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
Zoran Milanovic took everyone by surprise during the parliamentary elections last April when he decided to run as head of the SDP list in Zagreb. His candidacy was rejected by the Constitutional Court.
The president calls himself a “nationalist.” He is opposed to the government’s support for Ukraine and the participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO-led mission to train Ukrainian soldiers. He leads with 37,4% in the polls, ahead of Andrej Plenkovic (20,8%), the candidate supported by the prime minister’s party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – which sits with the European People Party (EPP) at the European Parliament – and advocates strengthening Croatia’s ties with its Western allies.
United Kingdom: will Labour’s victory last year translate into lasting support?
On 1 May, the UK will hold its first elections since last July’s general election, which saw the Labour Party return to power and Keir Starmer become Prime Minister.
This vote for England’s county councils will serve as a key test for Labour, revealing whether their victory last year will be the beginning of lasting support for the party.
According to Sky News, polls suggest that Labour and the Conservatives are currently neck and neck in the mid-20% range – a historically low level of backing for both parties – with Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist party, trailing by just five points. Reform UK currently holds no seats in local councils.
Belarus: an election with a silenced opposition
The 2020 Belarusian presidential election was marred by widespread electoral fraud, violent repression of the opposition and brutal crackdowns on protesters challenging the results. The election, which saw dictator Alexander Lukashenko claim a disputed victory with 80% of the vote, was widely condemned, with the European Union and other countries refusing to recognise the outcome. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994.
Since then, Belarusian human rights group Viasna has reported that over 50,000 people have been arrested on political grounds.
With the next election scheduled for 26 January, little is expected to change. Lukashenko has already warned that he may cut off internet access entirely during the 2025 presidential race if protests akin to those of 2020 erupt, according to state-run news outlet Belta in November.
Russia: a foregone conclusion
In the upcoming Russian elections next September, voters will casting their ballot for the Duma by-elections to fill vacant seats in the lower house of parliament, as well as for governors in 18 regions, regional parliaments in 11 regions, and local government representatives across various areas.
However, there are growing concerns regarding the fairness of these elections. Media freedom remains severely restricted, and political opponents continue to face harsh repression, personified by the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. These issues cast a long shadow over the integrity of the electoral process.
Norway: will the EU’s rightward shift reach Norway?
On 8 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections that will decide the makeup of the 169-seat Storting and indicate who might become the next prime minister. Jonas Gahr Støre, leader of the centre-left Labour Party, currently holds the position.
As seen across Europe, the latest polls suggest a shift towards right-wing parties. The far-right Progress Party is expected to come out on top – its 10% share of the vote in 2021 is predicted to double by 2025. Hot on their heels is the centre-right Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.
Ireland: turning the page after Higgins
No official date has been set yet, but the Irish will head to the polls by November 2025 to elect a new president, ending the popular Michael D. Higgins’ 14 years in office. Although largely ceremonial, the role of the President holds significant constitutional responsibilities, such as signing bills into law and representing Ireland on the global stage.
While no candidates have formally entered the presidential race, Irish media outlet The Journal is speculating on potential contenders. Among the names mentioned are familiar faces from Brussels: former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and former MEP Frances Fitzgerald – both from the centre-right party Fine Gael.
The upper house of the Irish Parliament, the Seanad, will also be renewed, though through an indirect process. Forty-nine senators will be elected by university graduates, while 11 will be appointed by the Prime Minister and vocational panels. Final results are expected from 30 January. These elections follow the dissolution of the lower house, the Dáil, on 8 November.
Georgia: will the local elections confirm the country’s pro-Russian orientation as pro-Europe protests continue?
In October 2025, Georgia will hold elections, one year after the disputed parliamentary elections won by the Georgian Dream party which as been widely accused of being pro-Russian. The country is the site of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West, while Russian troops have occupied 20% of Georgian territory since 2008.
The new government’s decision on 28 November to postpone the country’s EU accession process until 2028 provoked a wave of demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities across the country. Georgia gained EU candidate status in December 2023, but the process was halted by the EU, citing the country’s democratically unstable conditions.
29 December marked the end of pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili’s term in office, who was replaced by the pro-Russian former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili. He was elected on 14 December by the parliament in which Georgian Dream has a majority, in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition. As the stranglehold on pro-European forces intensifies, demonstrators have faced a heavy-handed response by the authorities. Meanwhile, Salome Zurabishvili refuses to recognise the new president and stand down from her position.
Moldova: pro-Russian ambush as parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025
As a buffer state to Ukraine, Moldavia is facing attempts at Russian interference with a disinformation campaign. The referendum on accession to the European Union in autumn 2024 went down to the wire in favour of the “Yes” camp (50.35%). Meanwhile, the pro-European president Maia Sandu was re-elected in a second round of voting.
For the 2025 legislative elections, the President’s party (The Party of Action and Solidarity – PAS) is playing for keeps. If it fails to win a majority, it will have to contend with other political forces, not all of which supported the “Yes” vote in the referendum. For Maia Sandu, these elections will be “a final battle” in Moldova’s road to EU membership, in a country where pro-Russian political opposition remains strong.
Albania: the same two political parties fighting for power
In Albania, President Bajram Begaj has set parliamentary elections for 11 May 2025 after a consultation was boycotted by the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which accused the president of endorsing a pre-determined date by the Socialist Party.
Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party and the DP are playing for big stakes in this election: the DP will be attempting to put an end to the Socialist Party’s three successive terms in office. The country has been in the throes of a serious political crisis for several years, the political debate being highly polarised between the DP and the socialists, heir to the communist regime and Enver Hoxha’s Party of Labour.
The opposition has accused the government of sending opposition figures to prison for political reasons. This lack of political plurality coupled with domestic resistance to fighting corruption makes EU accession talks challenging, with the negotiations for EU membership having officially started in 2022.
In May 2025, for the first time, Albanians living abroad will have the opportunity to vote.
Kosovo: will the pro-independence party keep its majority ?
In Kosovo, the Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje), Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party, is well set to win again in the parliamentary elections in February 2025. Since his landslide supermajority victory in 2021, the opposition has lacked leaders capable of challenging Kurti.
After the February’s poll, the question will be whether his party will be able to secure a majority or whether it will have to include opposition parties or representatives of the Serbian community in the government.
Srpska Lista, the Serbian ethnic party, has close ties with Serbia which does not recognise Kosovo’s independence which was declared in 2008 and is backed by key Western powers. After being refused the right to run for Parliamentary seats by the electoral commission, Srpska Lista was finally on 25 December granted the right to compete by an appeals body.
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