Dave Upthegrove suspects there are about two dozen voters in the San Juan Islands who cast primary ballots in his favor that were rejected. The Democratic lands commissioner candidate said Thursday he might call friends or local party officials there to help track these people down and see if their ballots can be fixed and counted.

The level of effort and precision in this outreach reflects how tight the race is for the second spot between Upthegrove and Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson 10 days after the Aug. 6 primary. It’s a squeaker that could come down to a couple hundred votes – or less – as they duel to move onto the general election.

Both campaigns are scrambling to reach voters who might be able to “cure” ballots with problems – like signatures that don’t match those on file with election offices.

As of Friday evening, Upthegrove was ahead by just 951 votes. His advantage has eroded as votes have been tallied in rural counties where Pederson enjoys stronger support. A Friday count in Walla Walla County narrowed his lead, which was around 1,900 votes in the late afternoon.

Both sides expect a mandatory recount in the contest.

The second-place finisher will compete in the November election against Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler. If it’s Pederson, no Democrat will appear on the November ballot in the race. Five Democrats ran in the primary fracturing the party’s vote.

“We know from all our modeling it’s incredibly close,” said Sam Cardwell, Pederson’s campaign manager.

Upthegrove said Thursday that predictive models he’s looking at in recent days indicate that he could either win or lose the second-place spot by 200 votes or less. Any surprising trends as the final votes are tabulated could easily tilt the race. 

“There was one point a day or two ago where our model showed me down by three votes,” he said. 

“We’re right on the razor’s edge,” he added. 

Curing efforts

Upthegrove said his campaign has more than 400 volunteers making calls, sending texts, and doing door-to-door canvassing to reach voters whose ballots were challenged but are thought to be fixable. He said the best “guestimate” is that this effort could help him scoop up around 2,400 more votes from the roughly 7,000 “curable” Democratic ballots in play on Thursday.

He has performed strongly on his home turf in population-dense King County, where he chairs the County Council. He said Thursday there were almost 1,900 rejected Democratic ballots there. In the county, he’d secured about 46% of the Democratic vote, meaning an estimated 860 or so of those outstanding ballots could break in his favor if they were to be cured and counted. 

Data showed he could potentially pick up 175 votes in Kitsap County, 149 in Clark County, and 130 in Whatcom County, he also said.

The Des Moines resident said his condo had become the “war room” for the ballot curing campaign and that he’d been spending time trying to recruit volunteers to help with it.

Cardwell was less forthcoming about Pederson’s ballot-curing operation. “We have a pretty robust strategy,” he said. “We’re focused on the smaller counties in eastern Washington.” 

“We’re super excited and super encouraged by how many people are helping,” he added.

He declined to provide details about the strength of volunteer numbers or what projections the campaign is looking at are showing.

If the difference between the candidates is less than 0.5% of the total votes cast for both of them and also less than 2,000 votes, a machine recount is required. A hand recount is triggered if the difference is less than 1,000 votes and under 0.25% of the total votes cast for both candidates.

Upthegrove said he expected it could be at least Monday before the outcome of the race is clear. County election officials have until Tuesday to certify their ballot counts. Next Friday is the deadline for the secretary of state to certify the primary results.

“We all work so hard for a year, to get to election night, and you gather and there’s all this tension, and you want it to be over, and then all of a sudden it just dribbles out for another week or so,” Upthegrove said. “It can be a little frustrating.”

The NFL season is still a few weeks away, but training camp and preseason have given teams a pulse of what their season could look like. For the Washington Commanders, they’re remaining hopeful of what’s to come this season, though their season could go a multitude of directions.

What is the team’s ceiling and floor in terms of win/loss totals? ESPN’s John Keim analyzed both the team’s ceiling and floor while listing an x-factor for the season. For the x-factor, the answer was quite simple. The offensive line could just dictate how the season goes for the Commanders.

READ MORE: Former Washington Commanders CB Excited to Compete Against Jayden Daniels

“The Commanders revamped their line, adding three new starters — center Tyler Biadasz, guard Nick Allegretti and rookie tackle Brandon Coleman. Washington allowed a franchise-record 65 sacks last season, although the playcalling and quarterback Sam Howell were big reasons why,” Keim wrote.

With Jayden Daniels taking over under center, the Commanders’ offense hoists plenty of potential. His dual-threat ability could make life easier for the offensive line. However, the new-look line must do whatever they can to keep the Heisman-winning quarterback’s jersey clean to ensure the offense can run smoothly.

“But if the Commanders receive solid play up front, they can provide a tremendous boost to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and allow new OC Kliff Kingsbury to run a more varied attack,” Keim wrote.

So, with the offensive line being the x-factor, what is the Commanders’ ceiling and floor for the season? Keim believes it’s a five-win gap, with the ceiling being nine wins and the floor being a 4-13 season.

A 9-8 season would be an incredible start to Washington’s rebuild and reset. It’d be similar to what the Houston Texans achieved last season, and would likely mean Daniels emerged as a star for the franchise.

However, a 4-13 floor absolutely makes sense. Sure, they’re returning the least amount of production, which is fair for a four-win team. They aren’t set to be a worse team, and posting the same record makes sense for a floor.

Landing somewhere in between those two results would be fine for Washington, as long as obvious potential and development is being shown over the course of the 17-game schedule.

READ MORE: How to Watch Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Odds

Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2024 season.

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About 2,600 votes cast in the primary in Washington County on Tuesday weren’t uploaded to the Minnesota Secretary of State’s results website on election night, county officials said Friday.

The oversight, which was corrected on Thursday, impacted vote counts, “but did not impact the final outcome in any race,” said Amy Stenftenagel, director of the county’s property records and taxpayer services division.

The results are now correct on the Secretary of State’s site, Stenftenagel said.

Here’s how it happened: The county has seven pieces of equipment that hold all the results for Election Day and early voting. Early Thursday, election officials discovered the results from one of the seven pieces of equipment were not uploaded on election night, she said.

Stenftenagel said staff members “called the candidates most impacted to notify them that their number of votes may change, but the outcome of races wasn’t affected,” she said.

The county’s five-member canvassing board met Friday morning and certified the election results to the Office of the Secretary of State, she said, adding that county officials “have already done work with our elections team to ensure this oversight doesn’t happen again.”

Originally Published: August 16, 2024 at 2:58 p.m.