By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn

Given the first-round matchups, this might be one of the least surprising second-round tilts in recent memory. In a completely unserious division, it’s no shock that the only two teams that looked like actual contenders from the Metropolitan will square off.

On the line: A trip to the conference final where Washington and Carolina will have a chance to exorcize some demons.

For the Hurricanes, it’s a chance to actually win a Round 3 game for the first time since 2006, having been swept the last three times. For the Capitals, it’s a chance to actually play a conference final series for just the second time in Alex Ovechkin’s 20-year career.

Getting that chance won’t be easy.

The odds

Anyone who is even fleetingly aware of hockey analytics as a concept knows that the above probability was predictable from both sides. Extreme disrespect for the Capitals coupled with unbridled adulation for the Hurricanes? Double whammy.

While that may not make sense given how the two teams played this season, it’s born out of each team’s pedigree.

Carolina has a strong track record of elite play with the team’s incredible ability to control the puck. That was on full display against the Devils in the first round and should continue in this series against the Capitals. While there’s no doubt the Capitals were an elite team this season, the prior track records of every player that broke through (and why they broke through) make them a little tougher to bet on.

Sustainability doesn’t matter in a seven-game series — the Capitals just have to keep it up long enough. That could prove difficult to do against a stifling Hurricanes team, enough to give Carolina the edge to start. That edge grew with the team’s first round, where the Hurricanes had more impressive numbers against a stronger opponent than the Capitals.

The good news for Washington? The Model has literally never been right about them. Ever. A 33 percent chance has the Capitals right where fans want them.

The numbers

The Capitals and Hurricanes were two of the best offensive generators at five-on-five during the regular season. The Canes swarm opponents with their relentless forecheck and have added a stronger rush element than years past. The Caps have a more balanced approach, but what they lack in shot volume compared to Carolina, they make up for on the scoresheet.

That same idea extended to the postseason. The Capitals’ power play wasn’t as effective in the playoffs, but their five-on-five scoring made up for it with 2.66 GF/60 in Round 1. The Hurricanes only mustered 1.91 per 60 against Jacob Markstrom and the Devils, despite generating 3.07 xGF/60. The power play helped make up for that in Round 1. They generated a lot of quality offense and converted on their chances at a high clip.

Washington will have a tough time getting their power play — which only netted three goals in five games against Montreal — going against Carolina. The Canes’ penalty kill is both stingy and disruptive; they did not allow a single power-play goal against in Round 1. The Capitals didn’t allow a high rate of chances in short-handed situations, but gave up more goals than expected. So that’s another special-teams area that needs some improvement in Round 2.

The Capitals didn’t allow the Canadiens to generate much at five-on-five, but the Hurricanes are a different animal with offense that comes in waves. In the regular season, Carolina was the better defensive team — the Caps had better results thanks to goaltending.

The big question

Is Andrei Svechnikov back?

For all the advancements in ACL surgery recovery — and Svechnikov himself is an example of that — for a lot of athletes, it still can be a two-year process. Getting back on the ice is one thing. Getting back to 100 percent is something else.

So, given that Svechnikov originally was injured in March 2023, the timeframe shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Against the Devils, he once again looked like Carolina’s most dangerous forward, leading them with five goals and an average Game Score of 1.54. Those numbers were inflated a bit by his Game 4, when he had a hat trick and helped Carolina take a 3-1 stranglehold on the series, but he was strong overall, putting up solid numbers and generally looking the part of a game-breaking winger.

Whether Svechnikov still fit that billing had started to become a fair question. Part of that was due to his ACL injury, which couldn’t have come at a worse time. Individually, he was having the sort of season, at 22 years old, that suggested a player entering his prime, combining goal scoring, explosiveness and five-on-five play-driving in a way he hadn’t yet managed. With 55 points in 64 games, he was on pace to set a new career high and, perhaps, finish as a point-per-game player for the first time. Most importantly, he added an element of dynamism to a roster that, deep and well-coached as any in the league, had lacked in that department.

His road back has had its bumps; he attacked his rehab but wasn’t quite ready for the start of the 2023-24 season, then dealt with a series of nagging oblique issues that stole some more of his time. His rate stats were fine (his 3.12 points per 60 were second on the team only to Sebastian Aho), but he was less dangerous as a scoring-chance producer, going from 11.1 chance contributions per 60 in 2022-23 to 8.6. As a winger whose calling card is offensive ability — and a player who doesn’t bring the two-way impact of someone like Aho — those numbers were good, not great.

The 2024-25 regular season was a similarly mixed bag. Svechnikov’s chance contributions swung back up, but he might’ve had the least productive season of his career; 2.34 overall points per 60 was the second-worst mark in his seven NHL seasons, and 1.29 per 60 at five-on-five was at the absolute bottom. Another series of upper-body injuries almost certainly played a part.

The Hurricanes weren’t necessarily worse for it; they’re better equipped than ever, thanks in part to the emergence of Seth Jarvis as a legit cornerstone, to deal with Svechnikov’s fluctuations. On the other bench, Capitals winger Tom Wilson had his own two-year, post-ACL production lull before bouncing back in a big way in 2024-25. Svechnikov is now in that same window. If he continues to play at the level he hit against the Devils, look out.

The X-factor

Can Aliaksei Protas keep up his regular-season breakthrough?

We’re going out on a limb and predicting that Protas won’t shoot better than 21 percent for the rest of his career; there were only five regular NHL players with a higher success rate.

That’s not meant to slag his breakout 30-goal season, though. Protas, who’d shot 5.7 percent in 169 career games before 2024-25, has clearly improved as a finisher. He’s also a substantive contributor in ways that go beyond his goal total. Protas’ job with Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin was to add some degree of defensive conscientiousness. He exited the defensive zone with possession more frequently than any other Capitals forward and led Washington’s forwards in puck retrievals.

Protas is also one of Washington’s best penalty killers. He was top 10 in the league in short-handed shots per 60 and seventh in individual short-handed scoring chances per 60 among players with at least 100 minutes on the kill.

The end result is a player who, even if he isn’t scoring at a wild pace, adds plenty, whether it’s substance on a first line or pop on the bottom six. In Protas’ first game back from a skate cut, he played on the fourth line with Nic Dowd and Brandon Duhaime; they led Washington in expected goals.

The rosters

The Canes’ and Caps’ star talent may not compete with the Connor McDavids and Nathan MacKinnons of the world, but it doesn’t take away from how much skill there is up and down the lineup.

It starts at the top with Ovechkin and Strome. With Protas sidelined for most of Round 1, Anthony Beauvillier jumped up to the top line in his place. The process wasn’t perfect with this trio deployed — they generated a lot of offense in their minutes, but gave up even more back — but the results made up for it, with a 4-1 scoring edge. The question is whether Beauvillier sticks on that top line, or if he moves to a utility role in place of Protas.

Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Wilson give the Caps a strong one-two punch in the top-six. That trio’s Round 1 play was pretty consistent with their regular season play — Washington tilted the ice in their minutes with a 55 percent expected goal rate and outscored their opponents, despite having to see a lot of Montreal’s best.

Ryan Leonard adds a spark to a defensive duo of Lars Eller and Andrew Mangiapane on the third line. The Caps are stingy with 4C Nic Dowd deployed, too.

One of the Capitals’ biggest strengths is that there were no weak links on defense. The Hurricanes are one of the few teams that could match that. But the Martin Fehervary injury changed some mainstay pairings and deployments for Round 1. Washington managed despite that against Montreal, but the Canes are a much more challenging test.

After striking out in Ottawa last year, the Capitals bet on reclamation project Jakob Chychrun. The coaches figured out the best way to use him to maximize his offensive strengths, generally in a sheltered role with Trevor van Riemsdyk. But with Fehervary sidelined, he jumped into the top four, and onto John Carlson’s left. Against Montreal, that meant matching up to top offensive competition.

The Caps created a lot of offense with Chychrun and Carlson on the ice, with 3.11 xGF/60 in Round 1, but they allowed just as much. Goaltending helped compensate for it, but that may not fly against the Hurricanes.

Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin, Washington’s new look second pair, will likely see heavier usage in Round 2 to contain Carolina’s depth. Both had solid regular seasons — Sandin’s growth in particular was a real plus for the Caps — but in Round 1, they earned a sub-44 percent expected goal rate, which is a little concerning. Alex Alexeyev and van Riemsdyk were solid in sheltered minutes, but Alexeyev’s track record suggests he can be exploited.

If the Caps’ defensive depth isn’t up to their regular-season levels, the pressure is on Logan Thompson to raise his game. After an almost equal regular season share of playing time, he’s been the de facto starter for the playoffs. Thompson gave his team a chance with a quality start in four of five outings, with 4.7 goals saved above expected.

Goaltending is a bigger question mark for the Hurricanes, namely Frederik Andersen’s health. He was in the starter’s crease in practice on Friday, which is a strong sign, but given his history, he’s not exactly the safest bet to stay in between the pipes. Andersen is a shockingly big part of Carolina’s edge, having saved 27.3 goals above expected in just 38 games over the last two seasons. That per-game work is top five in the league and there’s a substantial drop-off to Pyotr Kochetkov should Andersen miss any games in this series. With Kochetkov in net, Carolina’s series probability would drop to 62 percent. Andersen’s health is crucial.

The Hurricanes don’t need perfect goaltending as long as they can keep up the two-way support in front of the blue paint.

That starts on defense, with Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns. Slavin is the picture of consistency in a shutdown role. That pair earned a 57 percent expected goal rate while playing matchup minutes in the regular season, but their defense wasn’t as stout against the Devils in Round 1.

Jalen Chatfield and Dmitry Orlov’s numbers also took a hit last round to a 37 percent expected goal rate. Defense wasn’t as glaring an issue for this duo; it was how little the team created with them deployed.

That sacrifice by the top four, though, allowed a third pair of Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker to excel in sheltered minutes. With that pair on the ice, the Canes poured on the offense and didn’t allow much. If Carolina can do a better job of turning that into tangible results against the Caps, it could go a long way.

The Hurricanes’ forward group brings a lot of two-way strengths, too. Aho leads the way as a cornerstone up front. He’s a star in all situations, on both ends of the ice, and helped push the team to Round 2 with his clutch scoring. For most of the year, he shared the ice with Jarvis, who has become a true difference-maker, and rookie Jackson Blake. But for Game 5 against the Devils, Jarvis moved to the third line and Svechnikov jumped to the first.

Normally, the Hurricanes would be at a star-power disadvantage, but not in this series, where Aho and Jarvis are arguably the two best players in the series. Spreading that wealth could cause problems for Washington, especially with Carolina having so few weak links. That third line is a real weapon for the Canes. Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook wear down opponents with their disruptive forechecking and sound defense. Whether it’s Jarvis or Logan Stankoven completing the line, they can shut down the opponents’ best and create some pesky offense.

While Staal and Aho solidify this team on both ends of the ice, Taylor Hall brings an offensive spark to the second line. His star power may have faded over the years, but he was a savvy trade addition. So was Mark Jankowski, who fits well on the fourth line with William Carrier to round out a deep forward group. With few, if any, holes up front or on the back end, the Hurricanes are a very hard team to match up against.

The key matchup

Tom Wilson vs. Seth Jarvis

Whether you love him or hate him, Wilson tends to generate conversation in the postseason. He showed what a difference-maker he can still be on both ends of the ice this season, now that he is back up to full strength. And in Round 1, he made an impact. Wilson plays with an edge that frustrates opponents and can bring offense when it matters.

Wilson isn’t the only winger in this series who is a pain to play against — the Canes boast a rising star in Jarvis.

With a plus-12.3 Net Rating, Jarvis leads all forwards in this series. He is a threat on both ends of the ice, even against top competition, which likely earned him some Selke love this year. Jarvis brings puck-moving ability to the Canes’ attack, which adds more rush offense to a team that thrives off the forecheck. He is an all-around threat, likely to be tasked with shutting down Wilson’s line.

The bottom line

If the Capitals are at their best, particularly on the first line and in net, they certainly can beat the Hurricanes. Carolina’s depth and overall edge at five-on-five, even if you disagree with the odds, still make them the smarter bet. Either way, this one should be good.

References

How these projections work

Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

NHL

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

(Top photo of Tom Wilson and Frederik Andersen: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)