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Meteorological winter is here. What's in store for Utah this season?

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Meteorological winter is here. What's in store for Utah this season?


Despite a warm and dry start to the season, Utah’s statewide snowpack ended meteorological fall slightly above average with 2.8 inches of snow water equivalent.

However, meteorological fall typically produces hors d’oeuvres when compared to meteorological winter, Utah’s main snowpack course. About two-thirds of Utah’s mountain snowpack — a calculation of water in fallen snow — falls between the beginning of December and the end of February.

That’s according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s 30-year median average of data collected from 1991 through 2020. Since about 95% of Utah’s water supply comes from the snowpack collection and spring runoff process, the success of meteorological winter often makes or breaks any given water year.

“That’s when we get our most amount of snow, so it’s very significant,” says Candice Hasenyager, director of the Utah Division of Water Resources, talking about the season that began on Sunday.

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A good winter also matters for snow recreation outdoors, but what’s in store this winter remains a bit of a mystery as long-range forecasts offer no clear signal when it comes to precipitation. That’s par for the course, though, with the conditions setting up over the Pacific Ocean.

Utah’s winter outlook

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center updated its La Niña watch last month, noting that there was about a 57% chance that the oceanic pattern would emerge by the end of this year and last through the first quarter of 2025.

Above-normal trade winds blow warm Pacific Ocean water west, allowing cooler water to resurface in the eastern Pacific during a La Niña pattern, as noted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This typically causes the winter jet stream to move north, often creating a track that sends winter storms through Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest as systems move east.

Meanwhile, warmer and drier conditions generally set up across the southern U.S. during a La Niña pattern.

A map of a typical La Niña winter. Forecasters say it appears that trend will return this winter. | National Weather Service

This also shows up in the prediction center’s final outlook for meteorological winter, where most of the upper West and Great Lakes regions are listed as having the highest precipitation probabilities this winter. The Southwest through the Southeast have higher probabilities for drier conditions.

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Utah, however, is less influenced by La Niña — or El Niño — than other states. Both oceanic patterns tend to help or hurt areas north and south of the Beehive State, while Utah tends to get a wide range of winters that are good, bad or somewhere in between. It all comes down to where the jet stream forms.

Its last three La Niña winters — 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23 — are perfect examples of this. Utah only received 2.34 inches of precipitation statewide during the 2020-21 winter, which was its 18th-driest meteorological winter dating back to 1895, per federal climate data. The following season was also below normal but closer to normal.

Then in the 2022-23 winter, Utah received 5.78 inches statewide — its ninth wettest winter on record. That same water year, boosted by a jet steam that kept pushing storms through Utah, also produced the state’s largest snowpack on record. It was was larger than the 2020-21 and 2021-22 water years combined.

These maps show the temperature and precipitation probabilities for the U.S. from Dec. 1 of this year through Feb. 28, 2025. Most of Utah is expected to have a warmer winter, but precipitation totals are less certain. | National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

Long-range forecasts for the next three months reflect this uncertainty. Most of Utah is listed as having “equal chances,” meaning there’s about an equal probability that Utah ends up with a wetter, drier or near-normal precipitation this winter. Southern Utah has a slightly higher probability of below-normal precipitation.

Most of the state has a slightly higher probability for above-normal temperatures over the next three months. Only a sliver of northern Utah is listed as having equal temperature odds.

Utah’s water savings account

Hasenyager told KSL.com that she’s holding out hope, but the state has a saving grace in its reservoirs right now. Utah’s reservoir system entered December nearly three-fourths full, which is about where it was this time last year. It’s also 20 percentage points ahead of the winter median after back-to-back above-normal snowpack and lower consumption averages in recent years.

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That gives Utah’s water reserves a boost in case the state endures another bad season.

“They’re our bank account. They help us to extend over periods where we have less than optimal snowpack and less than optimal runoff,” Hasenyager said. “We’re hoping for a big year, as always. But if for some reason we don’t, it’s nice to have the reservoir (capacity) available.”

She adds that ways to reduce water consumption are still recommended in case there is a bad winter followed by more drought in the summer. However, another good winter would mean another boost for the Great Salt Lake and Lake Powell, two large bodies of water that remain well below full capacity after major drops during the two-decadeslong “megadrought.” Both have benefitted from controlled releases out of reservoirs to combat flooding concerns.

Gov. Spencer Cox said Monday that he believes that the Great Salt Lake could even move toward “healthy territory” by next spring should the Great Salt Lake Basin have another good snowpack collection.

“We’re hopeful to have a good year,” he said. “Regardless of whether we have another great year, a mediocre year or a terrible year, we’re in better shape than we’ve been in many years because of (conservation efforts).”

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Utah season wrap-up: Offensive struggles provide déjà vu

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Utah season wrap-up: Offensive struggles provide déjà vu


In many ways, 2024 felt like déjà vu for Utah fans.

Starting quarterback Cam Rising missed the majority of the season after missing all of 2023, the production behind him never materialized, and the regular season ended with fifth-string Luke Bottari starting once again.

Sound familiar?

Yet again, offense was the weak link on Utah’s team as the Utes scored 23.6 points per game (14th in the Big 12), passed for just 199.4 yards per game (15th in the Big 12) and rushed for 130.4 yards per game (12th in the Big 12).

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A season that began with such promise never materialized, as Utah went from preseason Big 12 favorites to finishing 13th in the 16-team league.

Injuries piled up once more on the offensive side of the ball, as Rising, quarterbacks Isaac Wilson, Sam Huard and Brandon Rose, tight end Brant Kuithe, running back Anthony Woods and offensive guard Michael Mokofisi all suffered season-ending injuries.

While the Utes were dealt another bad hand injury-wise, the offensive doldrums, just like last year, came down to the fact that there wasn’t a solid plan if Rising went down with injury.

Unfortunately for the Utes, Rising missed all but 2.5 games, injuring his fingers in Week 2 against Baylor, then suffering a season-ending leg injury in Week 6 against Arizona State.

Without a quarterback that could elevate the offense, Utah suffered seven-straight losses — the longest losing streak in the Kyle Whittingham era and the program’s lengthiest since 1986 — before winning the season finale at UCF with Bottari at quarterback.

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The Utes missed a bowl game in a full season for the first time since 2013 — just the third time that’s happened in the Whittingham era.

Utah knows that it has to solve the quarterback quandary that has plaguetd it for two years to find success again, and it’ll be a huge priority this offseason.

“Well, we got to solve our quarterback problems, I can tell you that. And that has been a difficult thing this year,” Whittingham said. “… Quarterback, as I’ve said over and over, the most important position in football, in team sports, period, and you better be good there if you want to have a chance to win. So we’ve got to evaluate just like I’ve got to evaluate my situation, we’ve got to evaluate the quarterback situation and make sure we have ourselves covered for next year.”

With the season wrapped up, here’s a look at how each position group on the Utes’ offense performed in 2024.

Quarterback

Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising sits on the sidelines before a game between the University of Utah and the TCU Horned Frogs at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. | Brice Tucker, Deseret News

With Rising on the sidelines for the majority of the season, backup duties fell to Corner Canyon High true freshman Isaac Wilson, who won the QB2 job in fall camp.

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With Rising returning as the undisputed starter, Utah couldn’t attract a quality backup in the transfer portal. The school tried, offering multiple quarterbacks, including Michigan State’s Sam Leavitt, but starting-level quarterbacks wanted to go somewhere where they wouldn’t be the backup to start the year.

Whittingham and the Utah offensive staff decided Wilson would be the best backup — over Rose and Huard — and for the first couple of games, it felt like the right decision.

The true freshman helped Utah to road wins over Utah State and Oklahoma State, and while there was stuff to clean up in both games, he was able to get the job done.

As Wilson started in three of the next four games, his play left a lot to be desired as the losses piled up, offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned, and the Utes failed to score more than 14 points with the true freshman at the helm. After losses to Arizona, TCU, and a poor first half at Houston, Wilson was benched.

Season-long issues kept creeping up over and over — he had a tendency to hold onto the ball a little too long, his processing never improved to an FBS-starter level, and he threw too many interceptions (11 on the season).

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Wilson’s final stat line: 1,510 yards, 10 touchdowns, 11 interceptions on a 56.4% competition rate.

“He comes in on his own and watches a ton of film so we’re doing everything we can. He’s doing everything he can to continue to develop and see things quicker,” Whittingham said. “And that was another issue in the (Colorado) game particularly early on. It got better as the game wore on, but holding the ball too long and need to go through those reads and spit it out or tuck it and run.”

There were still flashes of potential, like a 40-yard touchdown pass against Colorado that was Wilson’s best throw of the season, a 71-yard score against TCU, or a throw against Utah State where Wilson didn’t take the easy underneath first-down completion, but instead made a tougher downfield throw to Money Parks, dropping the ball perfectly between two defenders for a 20-yard gain.

Those moments were too far and in between, however.

Utah shouldn’t write Wilson off after one season — he will continue to develop and he could become a good college quarterback, but he clearly wasn’t ready at this moment. The plan was never to have Wilson play this season except in mop-up time while he sat and learned from Rising for a season, but that went out the window early.

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Would the Utes have been better served with Rose as their backup?

It’s a small sample size, and the third-year player wasn’t able to deliver a Ute win when he was inserted into the game in the third quarter against Houston, but Utah’s offense looked the most alive it had been since Rising was the quarterback with Rose under center against BYU before he suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury.

As Utah moves onto the 2025 season, its next starting quarterback may not be on the roster, but in the transfer portal.

Offensive line

Utah offensive lineman Spencer Fano (55), who checked in as a receiver, catches a pass and tries to get past Central Florida defensive back Chasen Johnson (27) during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Friday, Nov. 29, 2024, in Orlando, Fla. | John Raoux

Utah had to replace three starters along the offensive line — tackle Sataoa Laumea, guard Keaton Bills and center Kolinu’u Faaiu — with tackle Spencer Fano and guard Micahel Mokofisi the only remaining starters.

For the majority of the season, Utah went with Caleb Lomu, Tanoa Togiai, Jaren Kump, Mokofisi and Fano.

As a unit, it was an up-and-down performance throughout the season, but one player stood above the rest and was consistently good.

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Fano was rated the top tackle in all of college football (minimum 300 snaps) by Pro Football Focus, which gave him a grade of 91.5 (out of 100) on the season. Lomu also had a good first starting season.

Things got dicey in certain games along the interior offensive line, and as the season grew on — and the passing game continued to stagnate and loaded boxes became common — the line struggled to get push at times in the run game.

It’s impossible to completely separate quarterback play and line play, and the offensive line had a tough task this season in the run game due to the lack of a passing offense.

Running back

Utah Utes running back Micah Bernard (2) dives for a touchdown against BYU Cougars safety Faletau Satuala (10) at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. | Jeffrey D. Allred, Deseret News

Utah started the year with a running-back-by-committee approach with Micah Bernard, Mike Mitchell and Jaylon Glover, but Bernard grabbed the RB1 role by the horns and no one really stepped up to be a change-of-pace back this season.

Bernard was the heart and soul of the offense, finally getting a chance to be the lead back after five years in the program. He made the most of his opportunity, becoming the 17th Ute to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.

“He’s been huge this year. He has been the vast bulk and majority of our rush game this year. He’s by far got the most carries and the most production,” Whittingham said. “And talk about a guy who maybe thought he was done playing football last year to what he accomplished this year is pretty impressive, and we’re elated that obviously he was on our team this year and came back for this last year.”

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While Bernard had some great performances — he rushed for over 100 yards four times this year — the lack of an RB2 was a little bit puzzling.

Of course, when you have an RB1 with the production of Bernard, they’re going to get the ball the vast majority of the time, but it’s nice to have someone that can help shoulder the load.

Mitchell assumed that role at the beginning of the year, but had a nagging injury much of the season and didn’t produce as much as hoped — 158 yards on 47 carries.

Beyond that, there was pretty much nothing. Glover only had 12 carries for 60 yards and Dijon Stanley wasn’t utilized much after the first game.

With Bernard graduating, this is one of the more intriguing positions heading into 2025. Who will grab the RB1 position?

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Wide receivers

Utah Utes wide receiver Dorian Singer (3) celebrates a catch for a first down against the Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. | Jeffrey D. Allred, Deseret News

Dorian Singer is one of the most talented receivers Utah has ever had, and it would have been fun to see what he could have done with a healthy Rising.

Even with the middling quarterback play this season, Singer still had 702 yards and a touchdown on 53 receptions. He was the safety blanket for Wilson for much of the season and was a fantastic route runner, consistently getting open. His hands were the surest thing on the team, too — he dropped just one of his 93 targets this season.

Money Parks was a decent second option, catching 21 balls for 291 yards, but after that, there was a steep dropoff.

Mycah Pittman played through injury and wasn’t able to produce much, and players like Daidren Zipperer, Damien Alford and Taeshaun Lyons rarely saw the field.

One player to watch next season is Zacharyus Williams, who played four games (preserving his redshirt) and ended up with the third-most receptions among receivers — 10 for 101 yards.

Tight end

Perhaps the most puzzling position group on the team this year was the tight end room.

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Brant Kuithe played for the first time since 2022 and had a great season with 35 receptions for 505 yards and six touchdowns before suffering a season-ending injury.

But a tight end room that was touted as six-deep never truly materialized this season.

You have to take the lack of production across the board overall into account, but for the majority of the season, Kuithe was the only tight end getting consistent targets. Landen King had just three receptions for 54 yards and Dallen Bentley had just two receptions for 15 yards.

Caleb Lohner had a solid year — he could have potentially been used a little bit more in goal-line situations — and made the most of his opportunity playing college football. He had four receptions — all of them resulting in touchdowns.

UCLA transfer Carsen Ryan was rarely utilized, but a strong game against Colorado — 78 yards on four receptions — made him the second-most-productive tight end this season in terms of yardage.

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A lot of things didn’t go as planned for the offense this season, but the lack of utilization of the tight end room might be the most head-scratching.

Utah Utes tight end Carsen Ryan (85) hugs his mother, Danielle Ryan, after the Utes were defeated by the Iowa State at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. | Isaac Hale, Deseret News



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Michael Carcone leads Utah Hockey Club with a strong effort and no reward vs. Dallas

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Michael Carcone leads Utah Hockey Club with a strong effort and no reward vs. Dallas


Michael Carcone’s hard-nosed performance epitomized Utah Hockey Club’s overall game Monday against the Dallas Stars.

The fourth-line forward had four shots, two hits, one block and a takeaway in 16:31 of ice time in the 2-1 loss at Delta Center. Carcone came inches away from scoring in all three periods and played a gritty defensive style — but he could not find the needed result on the scoresheet.

Similarly, Utah Hockey Club both contained and even dominated a tough divisional opponent for long stretches of the night, unleashing a season-high 35 shots on goal while hunting its way back into the game after going down 2-0 in the second period.

But their comeback fell short.

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“I thought we played well. That’s a good team over there and I felt we outplayed them for the most part tonight,” Carcone said. “I thought we deserved better, but I feel like we’re saying that quite a bit now. Eventually it’s just going to go for us — stick with it.”

Carcone’s line with Alex Kerfoot and Kevin Stenlund pushed the tempo for Utah while skating with a certain edge and snarl. The trio combined for seven shots on goal — second-most of any line — were strong on the forecheck and maintained its energy through 60 minutes.

(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Hockey Club center Kevin Stenlund (82) looks to pass the puck as Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) defends during the game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.

Much of that has to do with Carcone’s growth in confidence since earning consistent lineup slotting, he said. The 28-year-old winger was a healthy scratch for nearly a month before returning to the nightly rotation in early November.

He has now played 12 consecutive games and scored his first goal of the season Saturday in Las Vegas.

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“I think he brings a special element of speed to our team. There’s not one game where I don’t see Carcone pushing their D back, going around their D, bringing the puck deep in their zone and doing those kinds of things,” head coach André Tourigny said.

Like Carcone, Utah came out with pace in the opening frame, carrying over from its blowout win on Saturday. The team created dangerous chances — namely from Kerfoot, Carcone and Dylan Guenther — and controlled the neutral zone which put the Stars on their heels for portions of the period.

Despite a high-flying opening, Utah did not have anything to show for it on the scoreboard.

“The opportunities are there, I just haven’t been knocking them down,” Carcone said. “Could be 2-2, could be 3-2 if I put one of those away. Definitely put that pressure on myself and I need to start contributing in the ways I know I can.”

The Stars took a 1-0 lead in the second period while Clayton Keller sat in the penalty box for holding. Utah let Evgenii Dadonov have as much time and space as he wanted with the puck before the Dallas forward snapped it past Karel Vejmelka from the lower right circle at 7:07.

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(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Referees break up a fight between Utah Hockey Club players and Dallas Stars players after the end of the game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.

Jamie Benn cushioned his team’s advantage with less than a minute remaining in the middle stanza. The Stars won a defensive-zone faceoff and pushed the puck to the other end of the ice where Benn lasered it home from the right side off a pass from Sam Steel.

Nick Schmaltz kept Utah in the fight in the final frame with his third goal in two games. After going 23 games in search of his first of the season, Schmaltz has finally been able to contribute on the scoresheet in a way that tangibly changes the complexion of games.

“That’s what you expect from a player like him,” Tourigny said.

Matias Maccelli picked up the puck along the boards and popped it over to Schmaltz who ripped it top-shelf from the high slot for the 2-1 scoreline at 6:57. Maccelli logged his first point since Nov. 15 with the assist on the play.

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Schmaltz would be the lone goal-scorer for Utah on Monday as the team could not find a way to force overtime in a third period that showed pushback and resolve nonetheless.

“I thought we were all over them. I think they were kind of just hanging on and chipping pucks out and we were kind of controlling the play for the most part,” Schmaltz said. “Fought back in the third and just couldn’t find a way to get the next one.”

(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Hockey Club celebrates a goal against the Dallas Stars during the third period of the game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.

Utah, generally, can feel content with how it competed. But it is the NHL and the sentiment of a moral victory is not enough in the standings nor in the locker room. These professionals want to win and it’s up to them to find the play that pushes them over the edge in games like Monday’s.

“It feels like we take a step forward and then two steps back,” Carcone said. “When we take that step forward, we came in and I thought we played a great game, we just can’t get the results. Once we learn from that and play a little bit stingier I think we are gonna start rolling.”

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Voices: Utah’s victims of nuclear fallout are stuck in limbo. We need our congressional delegation’s help.

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Voices: Utah’s victims of nuclear fallout are stuck in limbo. We need our congressional delegation’s help.


Victims of radiation exposure across Utah have been fighting for justice for years. Now, there is new life in the effort to expand the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA) to cover all Utahns and communities elsewhere harmed by fallout from atmospheric testing in Nevada decades ago.

We just need our own congressional delegation to close the deal. The question is — will they?

On Nov. 20, United States Senate negotiators unveiled a compromise proposal to renew and expand RECA after the program officially lapsed on June 7. Since RECA expired, the Department of Justice stopped processing claims. Families and survivors across all of Utah are now stuck in limbo.

After the government detonated nuclear bombs and exposed Utahns and other downwind communities to cancer-causing fallout, it’s deeply disturbing that the remaining survivors have lost life-saving assistance.

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The U.S. government formally apologized in 1990 for the harm inflicted on ordinary citizens by atmospheric testing during the 1950s and 60s. When President George H.W. Bush signed the original RECA (introduced by the late Sen. Orrin Hatch) into law, the government committed to “recognize and assume responsibility for the harm done to these individuals.”

RECA was always far too limited, covering only 10 counties in Utah and 12 others in Nevada and Arizona. Too many communities in northern Utah and the West were excluded, although evidence since RECA’s passage has shown much more about who was harmed by Cold War testing in Nevada, how much further radioactive fallout from above-ground tests spread, how the uranium industry endangered more workers, and how nuclear waste was negligently and illegally dumped in several U.S. communities.

In March, a bill to expand RECA passed the U.S. Senate with a bipartisan super majority. It adds the entire states of Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Montana and Guam, as well as additional uranium miners and communities dealing with the aftermath of weapons production and waste storage — all of whom evidence has shown were heavily impacted by radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the legislation stalled in the House of Representatives where Speaker Mike Johnson held up its passage citing cost concerns.

After months of negotiations, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri), one of the bill’s sponsors, has rolled out what he called a “reasonable compromise.” The new proposal takes the legislation already passed by the Senate and places a spending cap on it that reduces the projected cost by 90%. This solution is a significant sacrifice for downwinders and advocates, but we willingly agreed to it. It makes good sense.

The compromise keeps the expanded geographic areas and the increase into account for 34 years of inflation and dramatically higher cancer care costs.

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The compromise proposal would mean that payouts to victims across the country would initially be capped at $5 billion in total, which is estimated to last over the next five to six years. If the Department of Justice, which administers the program, needs funds for more claims it can ask Congress for more. This is a reasonable middle ground to ensure that thousands of victims get compensation without the heavier $50 billion price tag over 19 years.

In the past, Speaker Johnson has been a problem. But now with the new proposal, he might play ball. Public reports have said he would support the compromise plan if the Utah delegation gets on board.

This means we are close. All we need is our congressional delegation — Reps. Owens, Malloy, Moore and Curtis — to support the compromise. If they say “yes,” the program is back in operation. If they say “yes,” thousands of additional Utahns are eligible for benefits. If they say “yes,” downwinders, uranium mine workers and atomic veterans in Utah can move on with their lives.

We ask our delegation to support his workable compromise that helps Utahns statewide. The Utah delegation now has no excuse. We are a dwindling population that can’t afford to wait for justice any longer. Rep. Celeste Maloy and Rep. John Curtis represent the areas of the state with the most past RECA claimants. They need to be our champions and get this passed before the current congressional session ends in a few weeks.

(Mary Dickson) Mary Dickson is a Salt Lake City writer and downwinder who has been a long-time advocate for victims of nuclear weapons.

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Mary Dickson is a Salt Lake City writer and downwinder who has been a long-time advocate for victims of nuclear weapons. She is currently the Mellon Community Practitioner in the Environmental Humanities Program at the University of Utah.

The Salt Lake Tribune is committed to creating a space where Utahns can share ideas, perspectives and solutions that move our state forward. We rely on your insight to do this. Find out how to share your opinion here, and email us at voices@sltrib.com.



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