Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is prevented from running due to term limits, has one eye on the presidency and hasn’t endorsed a successor or publicly nudged lower-performing candidates out of the race.

That neutrality could come at a cost, some experts say, should the two GOP aspirants prevail.

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‘Nobody has leapt out’: Voters disengaged, largely unenthusiastic

Reyes, 29, a lifelong Democrat, said typically by the end of March she would have a strong idea of which candidate she planned to support. She was planning to back former Vice President Kamala Harris or Sen. Alex Padilla, but both bypassed running, leaving her clueless about who was running or who to support.

She has only learned about Steyer, who has poured millions into the contest, and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

“I’m going to be honest in saying that I have been getting a lot of conflicting messaging, even from my own party, about who I should put my vote behind,” Reyes said. “Right now, it seems that the party is very much trying to find its footing on whether or not we’re going for a progressive candidate or for a more moderate Democrat.”

Experts say voter apathy typically occurs in California because it’s a heavily Democratic-leaning state, and that a majority of voters don’t pay attention until after the usually low-turnout primary.

The Berkeley survey underscored how much inattention is responsible for Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm for a specific candidate. It noted that voters “remain largely disengaged and unenthusiastic,” and about 16% of Californians are undecided.

The poll found that even among the candidates who are generally better known, “significant proportions of likely voters have no opinion” of them.

That might come as a surprise, given that the top three Democrats all ran for major office before. Porter made an unsuccessful bid for Senate in 2024 while Steyer and Swalwell launched uneventful presidential campaigns in 2020.

There are other notable contenders on the Democratic side: Becerra, the former health secretary in the Biden administration who had just 5% in the Berkley poll; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan who raked in 4%; Tony Thurmond, state Superintendent of Public Instruction and Betty Yee, a former state controller who both shared 1%.

“No one in particular has caught fire with the average Democratic voter,” said Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst based in San Francisco. “Nobody has leapt out.”

Democrat Rick De Alba, a workers’ compensation rights attorney from Pacifica, California, said he prefers Beccera, but noted he consistently sits in the basement of the race. He doesn’t want his vote going to someone who doesn’t have a shot at winning, and wishes underdog contenders would heed state party leaders’ advice and bow out gracefully.

“I think realistically you need about $30 million to put on an effective campaign in California, and if you can’t raise that, you should step aside,” De Alba said. “California always votes Democrat, no matter what. We just need to know who the candidate is.”

Reyes, the graduate student, said she had hoped to learn more about the other Democrats running through a debate hosted by the University of Southern California, which was originally scheduled to air on March 24. But the university canceled the event at the last minute after an accusation that it purposefully left out candidates of color, casting a shadow over the event for days.

Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer are White, whereas the lower-polling candidates are mostly people of color. Becerra and Villaraigosa are Hispanic; Mahan is White; Thurmond is Black; and Yee is Asian American.

“As a person of color, it did make me take a pause, and it didn’t look good,” Reyes said. “But I feel like this was a chance for all of these Democratic candidates to kind of put their faces in front of California voters.”

GOP shutting out Democrats ‘theoretically possible’ expert says

Conservative-leaning California voters such as Bud Thompson, a 61-year-old state government employee, said they are enjoying the spectacle of the usually dominant California Democrats in disarray. He was surprised to learn that the two leading candidates in this year’s races were the two GOP candidates.

“I think that you can look at California and see what a mess it is. Look at who’s been running it for the last few years,” the Sacramento, California, native said in an interview. “I am going to start seriously looking at the two Republicans. It would be a nice change of pace.”

California, under Newsom, has been one of the larger state governments that have opposed much of the Trump administration’s agenda, so having either Hilton or Bianco, who are both decidedly behind the president, would be a drastic shift.

Bianco made headlines this month when he followed the administration’s lead by seizing roughly 650,000 ballots in Riverside County, based on a tip from a citizen-led group that has been criticized for delving into conspiracy theories by local officials and other voting rights experts. He’s also made support for the president’s controversial SAVE Act voting bill one of the central themes in his campaign.

“Investigations into irregularities must happen so that the public can have full confidence,” Bianco said in a March 22 post on X.

Hilton, a former Fox News host, has also spoken in favor of Trump’s election overhaul, arguing that “(u)niversal mail-in voting must end,” in a March 26 post on X. He has emphasized allegedly fraudulent government spending and slammed Bianco for calling to work with Black Lives Matter protesters in 2020.

Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, said it’s “theoretically possible” that the two could shut out the Democrats, assuming GOP voters back their own candidates and earn enough votes from some independent voters.

But he said in the next couple of months, there will be a lot more pressure from state Democrats and others to significantly drain the pool of candidates so that the remaining contenders can consolidate support.

“I just got to imagine that pressure is really going to mount and a lot of donors to Democratic candidates may also push heavily for some Democrats to drop out,” Holyoke said.

Asked about the prospect of Republicans keeping Democrats out of the top two spots, national campaign officials who spoke with USA TODAY exuded optimism and spotlighted the party’s history of success in the state.

“We are confident that will not happen, and we are having active conversations with our partners in California about ways that we can ensure that doesn’t happen,” Johanna Warsaw, a spokesperson for the Democratic Governors Association, told USA TODAY in an interview.

She noted the group was heavily engaged in other elections that turned out well for progressives, including the 2025 redistricting ballot initiative known as Proposition 50 and the failed 2021 recall battle against Newsom.

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Democrats express confidence as Newsom’s absence scrutinized

As the California election comes into focus, Newsom’s role in picking a successor is also being heavily scrutinized, especially given that he’s a rumored 2028 presidential contender.

Newsom served as lieutenant governor under former Gov. Jerry Brown, a longtime fixture in the state, before taking the reins in 2019. But Newsom’s second-in-command, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, dropped out of the running last August.

“There isn’t a logical heir to the throne this time around,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Newsom’s office did not respond to USA TODAY’s request for comment, but he addressed the lack of a focused message among the Democratic pool when speaking with Politico’s “On the Road” podcast. The governor noted that Harris and Padilla declining to run created “a lot of chill and a lot of delay” in this year’s campaign.

“You have this condensed period of time with a lot of candidates,” Newsom told host Jonathan Martin.