Seattle, WA
The Seahawks shouldn’t be taken seriously until they can beat top teams again
The Seattle Seahawks are just about destined to miss out on the postseason, and for the second year in a row it’ll likely come down to the rarely applied strength of victory tiebreaker.
With the Los Angeles Rams scraping past the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, Seattle is on the verge of elimination and it could come as soon as Sunday. They would’ve been on the better side of the SOV tiebreaker situation had they beaten the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. They didn’t, which is all that matters, and that might cost them their season.
I cannot think of a more appropriate encapsulation of recent Seahawks football, if not the Geno Smith Era in totality, than these past three games.
Week 15: Blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers
Week 16: Competitive but close loss to the Minnesota Vikings
Week 17: Unbelievably ugly but narrow win over the Chicago Bears
Two different types of losses to Super Bowl contenders and the barest of margins to get past a checked out Chicago Bears team that’s currently on a 10-game losing streak. Te Seahawks typically beat bad teams and don’t beat any serious playoff contenders, whether within their own division or outside of it.
Since 2020, the Seahawks are just 3-17 against eventual division champions (usually Super Bowl contenders, with few exceptions). The .150 win percentage is an abysmal 28th in the NFL. This includes getting swept by the Rams in 2021, as well as the 49ers in 2022 and 2023. One of those “division champion” wins was the 7-9 Washington Football Team in 2020. This stat could actually get worse if they lose to the Rams again and the Atlanta Falcons don’t win the NFC South.
In that same time frame, they are tied for the most wins in the NFL against teams below .400. That stat could fluctuate depending on whether or not the San Francisco 49ers lose out this season. And even then, more than half of those wins were by one possession.
Yes, I included the 2020 division champion Seahawks to not isolate almost everything exclusively to the Geno Smith era. Beyond any other asterisks we could put on that unprecedented coronavirus pandemic season, those Seahawks were pretty damn inflated. They were a 12-4 team with a point differential more akin to a 10-6 squad despite playing the third easiest schedule in the entire NFL by opponent win percentage. Their only game against a serious Super Bowl contender that season was a complete humiliation against the Buffalo Bills. Against the only other playoff team they faced with a winning record, they went 1-2 versus the Rams and were blown out in the playoffs.
If we isolate to just the Geno Smith seasons, the numbers are grim. As things stand—they’ll be fluid given the possibility of beating the Rams in Week 18—Seattle’s strength of victory has been under .400 in all three of his years as the starter. Their four wins against teams with at least 10 victories are the P.J. Walker-led 11-6 Cleveland Browns in 2023, a genuinely excellent overtime win over the 12-5 Detroit Lions in 2023, Drew Lock’s career highlight against the collapsing 11-6 Philadelphia Eagles in 2023, and the 37-23 beatdown of the 10-7 Los Angeles Chargers in 2022. That’s it. The Browns, Chargers, and Eagles were very clearly not contenders and none of them won a playoff game. Detroit is Geno’s gold standard win surrounded by a stream of Ls that have ranged from blowout to “close but no cigar.”
You can rightly argue that the Seahawks were ahead of schedule given the expectations following the Russell Wilson trade. But I can just as easily counter that we’ve effectively seen the same sort of results with the Seahawks on either side of the trade. Exempting the disastrous 2021 campaign, they’ve been firmly entrenched in the NFL’s middle class of fringe playoff team/faux contender. My designation of the “Geno Smith Era” does not necessarily mean he’s been the main reason Seattle has struggled to beat top-tier teams; he’s had good games in defeat (see: Dallas Cowboys, 2023), horrid games in blowouts (see: multiple 49ers games), and unremarkable games where he neither elevated nor held the team back. We’ve seen the Seahawks defense capitulate repeatedly against elite opposition and the offensive line get destroyed, so it’s usually all-encompassing failure. However, if the organization decides to move on from Smith in 2025, whether justified or not, It’s hard not to think that the lack of signature wins will be one of the main factors.
I believe Mike Macdonald has generally done a good job in his rookie season as head coach and I am optimistic about his future. The end of Carroll’s tenure suggested stagnation and that nothing was going to improve unless he left. I’d also say, however, that citing Vegas over/under win totals as proof of exceeded expectations needs to come with the acknowledgement that the likes of the San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, and even the Denver Broncos were all expected to do either much worse or much better than anticipated. If I were to tell you at the start of the season that the 49ers, Dolphins, and Jets would be bad/injured teams and that the Vikings would be pushing for the No. 1 seed, you’d probably readjust your expectations. With the way the schedule has turned out, I do not think it was unreasonable to believe the playoffs were possible. This is as weak as the NFC West has been in years and Seattle unfortunately fumbled fate right out of its hands.
Beating a 13-2 team like the Vikings is obviously much easier said than done, but the main point is that this recent stretch of Seahawks football has been largely defined by middling results. The quarterback has changed, as has the bulk of the roster and coaching staff, and the results have not changed a whole lot in terms of who they beat, who they lose to, and how they win and lose.
The hope is that Macdonald is coaching the next great Seahawks team, but we’re also basing that on the assumption of linear growth akin to 2010-2013, which is neither guaranteed nor always the norm. If anything, John Schneider’s 2025 offseason decisions (especially at quarterback) will tell us how he feels about the state of his own roster and whether the Seahawks are going to keep looking at competing in one-year increments, or if they may have to risk taking a major step back in order to be better in 2026, 2027, and beyond.
We’ll know when the Seahawks are on the cusp of breaking through to the upper floors again when they show they can win tough games against the best, including within the NFC West. Note that I didn’t say “consistently beat good teams” in the headline, because only the absolute elite like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills can do that on an annual basis. The Seahawks of the past five seasons have scarcely shown that, and the lack of playoff success and appearances accurately reflects who they’ve been and what they are right now.
(All stats via Stathead)
Seattle, WA
Harger: Hundreds responded to my Seattle homelessness commentary. Here’s what you said, and what I missed – MyNorthwest.com
Last week, I wrote about the word “homeless” and what it’s hiding. About Ben, who lives in his Jeep with his dog after a divorce and a job loss, ready to work, unable to get help because he doesn’t fit the profile the system was built for. About a woman in a tent in Ballard, severely addicted to fentanyl, found unresponsive twice in one week, turning down shelter every time it’s offered. About a third group: the severely mentally ill, cycling endlessly between the street, the ER, and the jail.
One word covering three completely different crises. One industry getting rich off the confusion.
I was not prepared for what came back.
A listener texted almost immediately to say I had perfectly described the homeless industrial complex. I’ve heard that phrase before. I’d never stopped to really sit with it. But that’s exactly what it is: A system that has organized itself around the problem rather than the solution, where the incentive is to manage homelessness, not end it.
Seattle readers respond: The homeless industrial complex, tiny homes, and a broken housing system
The emails and texts started coming in immediately and haven’t stopped. From people who said they felt seen for the first time. From people living this. From people who have been trying to say exactly this for years and couldn’t get anyone to listen.
Don wrote that the suffering caused by misguided homeless policy is just as real whether the motivation is malicious or simply misguided. He put it better than I did.
“The results are likely worse than what most of us could generate from a lifetime of determined ill-will,” Don wrote.
You don’t have to be cruel to cause real damage. You just have to be wrong and well-funded.
Igor called it “homeless heresy.” Two words. Said everything.
Laurie asked me to keep holding the spending accountable. I intend to.
Tammy told me her friend was given a tiny home and is doing meth inside it. She said the community has a room where residents do their drugs. She thought tiny homes were drug-free. They’re not required to be. That’s exactly what I was talking about. We put a roof over someone’s head, call it compassion, and walk away from the harder problem.
James flagged something I want to look into more closely. Affordable housing programs, he said, require proof of residency going back two years. This makes it nearly impossible for someone who is actually homeless to qualify. He was denied housing himself because his name wasn’t on his brother’s lease, even though that was the only address he had. That’s worth a much closer look.
Seattle homelessness has more categories than I described. A DV survivor showed me what I missed
Andrea is a domestic violence survivor who suffered a serious work injury the same year. She lost her mobility, her housing, and her safety all at once, and ended up back in a home with family members she’d spent years trying to escape. She doesn’t fit neatly into any of the three categories I described. She falls through every crack in the system.
I should have included her situation, and I didn’t. That was a mistake.
I’ve worked on stories with The More We Love, an organization that works specifically with women and children in situations like Andrea’s, and I want to tell her story more fully in the weeks ahead.
Steve spent seven years as a mission coordinator at a Seattle homeless mission in Belltown, interviewing everyone who came in seeking help. He wrote to describe a fourth category I did not address: people in the country illegally using services intended for others. It’s a complicated area, and I’m not going to treat his account as the final word, but it’s worth noting that people working directly in these facilities are seeing things the policy conversations aren’t accounting for.
Sally, a low-income senior who navigated the system herself and now rides Seattle buses regularly, wrote to describe several more categories I had not addressed: LGBTQ+ youth, domestic violence survivors on the run, and the residentially unstable who cycle through evictions and can’t get along in shelter settings. She’s offered to talk, and I may take her up on it.
North Beacon Hill: Open-air drug use, encampments near schools, and letters that go nowhere
Kevin is from North Beacon Hill. He wrote to describe his neighborhood: the parks full of encampments, the open-air drug use and sales, the day cares and schools nearby, the community group writing letters that go nowhere. His council member attended one meeting and didn’t seem particularly interested. The neighborhood is left to document what’s happening and hope someone eventually notices.
I went out to Kevin’s North Beacon Hill neighborhood this week. I talked to him. That report airs early next week, and I think you’ll want to check it out.
Seattle’s homeless policy is failing. People see it clearly. They just needed someone to say it
People aren’t confused about this. They see it clearly. They’ve been seeing it for years. They just haven’t had anyone reflect it back to them without flinching.
Igor called it heresy. Around here, maybe it is. We’ve spent billions. The people sleeping outside are still sleeping outside. The people like Ben who just need a hand up can’t get one. And suggesting that what we’re doing clearly isn’t working is apparently the most controversial thing you can say in this city.
I’m not done with this story. Not even close.
Charlie Harger is the host of on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries . Follow Charlie and email him .
Seattle, WA
Post-Game Instant Analysis: Seattle at Tampa Bay | Seattle Kraken
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Seattle, WA
The question Jeff Passan has about the Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners enter this season with fewer question marks than they’ve had in any year in recent memory.
Mariners unveil 2026 opening day roster and who’s on IL
The club began spring camp with few open spots on a big league roster set to return many of the same faces from last year’s run to the American League Championship Series. And outside of what are believed to be short-term injuries to shortstop J.P. Crawford and right-hander Bryce Miller, the M’s left their spring training facility in Peoria without much to be concerned about.
ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan is high on this year’s Mariners, even picking them to represent the American League in the World Series. But there is one question he has about the team as the season begins, he told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Wednesday.
“Cal Raleigh had a once-in-a-lifetime season last year, and while he’s still going to be excellent his year, once in a lifetime is once in a lifetime. So how does the offense make up for – I’m not gonna even say lack of production – but the difference in production from what they got from Cal Raleigh last year?” Passan said.
After leading MLB catchers in home runs during the 2023 and 2024 campaigns, Raleigh led all of baseball with a historic 60-homer season in 2026 that nearly doubled his previous career high of 34 hit in 2024. Raleigh’s 60 homers broke Salvador Perez’s single-season record of 48 for a primary catcher, Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle’s record of 54 for a switch-hitter and Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr.’s Mariners record of 56.
While Raleigh has displayed premier slugging abilities since becoming a full-time starter in 2022, Passan expects a significant drop from the 60 he hit last year.
“I don’t think it would be fair or reasonable to expect 60 home runs again from Cal Raleigh because let’s not forget no catcher in history had come close to that number,” Passan said. “I don’t even know if 50 is a reasonable expectation, frankly. But a 40-plus home run season from Cal Raleigh (is reasonable).”
Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player in this story. Listen to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.
More on the Seattle Mariners
• Cable TV channels for Seattle Mariners games this season are set
• Drayer: This season, the Mariners replace hope with expectations
• Morosi: Seattle Mariners made the right decision on Mitch Garver
• How prospect expert views Seattle Mariners OF Lazaro Montes
• M’s dust off a classic in latest commercial featuring Cal Raleigh
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