Seattle, WA
Seahawks have been one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL
The Seattle Seahawks are 8-5, leading the NFC West, and they’re also one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL.
NFL data analyst Tom Bliss has been charting the net win probability added through “luck” plays all season. This includes opposition dropped interceptions (as in, passes thrown by a quarterback that were dropped by the other team), opposition dropped passes, opposition field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries by either team.
As of Week 14, the Seahawks rank 29th in favorable luck.
Luck dashboard thru week 14.
Most impactful plays:
– TEN dropped pass in end zone on 4th down with 1:15 left in Q4 (+61.6% for JAX)
– CAR dropped pass with 0:52 left in Q4 (+31.2% for PHI)
– MIA made 52-yd FG with 0:12 left in Q4 (-22.4% for NYJ) pic.twitter.com/vVLmngfIeP— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 10, 2024
This is a flip from last season, when the Seahawks were near the top of the luck charts.
What’s been hurting the Seahawks the most? Turnover luck. Geno Smith has thrown 12 interceptions, but he’s had a few tipped passes go into the arms of defensive players. If you look at the Turnover Worthy Plays on PFF, Geno’s TWP% is just 2.1%, so passes deemed “interceptable” have basically all been picked. Can you count how many dropped would-be interceptions Smith has had this year? It can’t be a high number.
Dropped passes and missed field goals/extra points have favored the Seahawks, but nothing has been more damaging to Seattle than fumble luck. They’ve forced 12 fumbles and only recovered four while losing seven of their own fumbles. Several of the fumbles recovered on offense were wayward Connor Williams snaps or Geno Smith dropping the ball and immediately picking it up.
One of the biggest moments against the Seahawks was Josh Allen’s kicked-forward fumble in Week 8, turning what would’ve been a turnover and another Seattle possession inside Buffalo territory into an eventual Bills touchdown.
Luck dashboard thru week 8.
Most impactful plays:
– Dropped interception by BAL with 1:08 in Q4 (+31.7% for CLE)
– Dropped pass by BAL with 9:30 left in Q4 (+19.8% for CLE)
– BUF recovers own fumble in Q2 vs SEA (+14.5% for BUF, -14.5% for SEA) pic.twitter.com/4iOPDRKJ9B— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) October 29, 2024
Green Bay has only lost four fumbles on the season, although one came against the Detroit Lions last week from Christian Watson. However, the opportunistic Packers defense has recovered 12 fumbles, the second-most in the NFL.
I’m of the belief that ball security is generally not luck. Fumble recoveries are overwhelmingly luck, and the Seahawks have not been able to be on the plus side of recovering their own fumbles or getting their opposition’s.
If that changes in Seattle’s favor over the past few weeks, perhaps that’ll be a key difference between a playoff berth and sitting home after Week 18.
Seattle, WA
SEEN FROM WEST SEATTLE: Downtown drone show
Thanks to Stewart L. for the photos of a drone show over the downtown waterfront tonight, as seen from Harbor Avenue. With Emerald City Comic Con in Seattle, the show commemorated the 10th anniversary of the finale of the two-season Disney-produced animated series “Gravity Falls,” and the launch of a new “visual history” of the series, a book titled “The Art of Gravity Falls.”
(It was meant to be seen from the Overlook Walk on the waterfront, so the images visible from here were reversed.)
Seattle, WA
Seattle Sounders at St. Louis City SC: community player ratings form
The Seattle Sounders traveled to St. Louis on Saturday and came away 1-0 winners in a gritty performance. Soon after halftime, first half substitute Kalani Kossa-Rienzi scored the lone goal following a good counterpress from Jesús Ferreira, with calmness and composure from the goalscorer to pick his spot. The Sounders came under pressure from the hosts, but their defense was resolute throughout, turning aside repeated attacks in exactly the kind of performance you need to win on the road in MLS.
Here is a direct link to the form; we hope this allows everyone to submit a response.
Here’s the scale:
(Substitutes can be left blank if the player did not play enough to judge)
1 – Not a pro quality performance
4 – Average USL Championship starter
6 – Average MLS starter
9 – MLS All Star
10 – MLS MVP-quality performance
Seattle, WA
Seattle Kraken blown out in 7-4 home loss to Senators
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 07: Shane Pinto #12 of the Ottawa Senators celebrates his goal during the second period against the Seattle Kraken at Climate Pledge Arena on March 07, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
SEATTLE – Shane Pinto had a goal and two assists in Ottawa’s four-goal spree in the first and second periods and the Senators beat the Seattle Kraken 7-4 on Saturday night.
Linus Ulmark made 17 saves to help Ottawa improve to 3-1 on a five-game trip. The Senators are four points behind Boston for the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Seattle has lost two in a row and four of its past six. It holds the second wild card in the West after San Jose’s overtime loss to the New York Islanders.
Tyler Kleven, Dylan Cozens and Michael Amadio also scored after Jacob Melanson gave Seattle an early lead.
After Eeli Tolvanen scored for Seattle to cut it to 4-2 late in the second, Warren Foegele, Tim Stutzle, and Brady Tkachuk pushed Ottawa’s lead to five in the third.
Matty Beniers and Brandon Montour had late goals for the Kraken. Joey Daccord made 29 savss for Seattle.
Seattle’s Jaden Schwartz left late in the first period after taking a skate to the face. He did not return.
Up next
Senators: At Vancouver on Monday night.
Kraken: Host Nashville on Tuesday night.
The Source: Information in this story came from The Associated Press.
MORE KRAKEN NEWS FROM FOX 13 SEATTLE
Seattle Kraken add some help ahead of trade deadline
Seattle Kraken acquire Bobby McMann from Maple Leafs for draft picks
Seattle Kraken sign captain Jordan Eberle to two-year, $5.5 million extension
Seattle Kraken deliver dud in 3-2 loss to Blues ahead of trade deadline
Joey Daccord makes 35 saves as Seattle Kraken earn 2-1 win over Hurricanes
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