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Battling the Books | July 1

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Battling the Books | July 1


It’s official. June is in the books.
How did I do?
In my very first article here at PredictEm I stated my goals for sports betting, and I’ll restate them here:
1 – Do Not Lose Money
2 – Finish with a Profit – ANY Profit
3 – Seek the Grail: 67%
And of course – HAVE FUN!

Along with a lot of other advice for new bettors, (and any of you who are trying to stop bleeding cash and get your bankroll back to the plus side of the ledger) I recommended not treating your sports betting as an open ended, never ending war. Set goals for time frames (weeks or months) and sports (keep separate records and numbers for college football, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.)
Win enough battles and you’ll win the war.

June was the first window I had. Overall, all sports, I came in at 16-13, enough to bank a small profit.
I hit goal number one and two.
And I had a LOT of fun, crunching numbers and sharing my tips, methods, and picks with you.

Round one in my Battle with the Books has ended, and the judge’s scorecards have it as a 10-9 round for me.

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The next window I have is July.
Same goals, as always.

The WNBA season started on May 14th, so I now have six weeks worth of data to help me try to Beat the Books in July. That should make it easier, BUT . . . I’ll have limited opportunities as the league goes on break for the All-Star game and then the Olympics.

The All Star break begins on July 18th, and they don’t come back from the Olympic break until August 14.
Like I said, limited opportunities in July.

So where will I get some action?
Hell if I know.

NASCAR?
Possibly. Depends on what track they’re at.
Even with money on it I can’t watch when they’re racing at tracks that are boring.
I need a high percentage possibility of metal hitting metal, or walls, or else my Sunday afternoon TV viewing finds me channel flipping over to Wicked Tuna. Or Naked and Afraid (but only if the chick on it is hot. If not, it’s back to channel flipping, looking for something that can hold my attention. Yes, that’s shallow, I know, but I’ve come to accept my shortcomings.)

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CFL?
Possibly. But despite having been fortunate enough to live in Vancouver, BC for two years, I still find the northern version of the game a little bit weird.
Unlike football here in the US, in Canada you can score one point without kicking an extra point. I’m not sure how, I could look it up but I just don’t care enough to take time to do so. It has something to do with punt returns, or not returned, or something. And I still don’t get how the clock could show .00, which in the normal world means the game is over, but in the country that is responsible for Loverboy and Nickelback they can still run one more play.
But they did give us Norm Macdonald, so Canada will always be okay in my book.

Boxing?
It’s always been my favorite sport, but there just aren’t enough quality, evenly matched bouts to make it advantageous from a wagering point of view. Seems like every time I check the odds the favorite is -1,200.00 or higher. At the Sports book I’d see people lay odds like those and I had to refrain myself from asking, “You’re risking $1,200 to win $100. So what is it that you’re going to do with $1,300 that you couldn’t do with $1,200?”
It just doesn’t make sense to me.

Tennis? Golf? Soccer???
I don’t think so.

Like life in general, I’ll just take things day by day.

Note – all of the advice I offer is based on years as a bettor and years of experience gained while running a sports book in Vegas. I never say it’s the right way, I only say it works for me. And it can work for you, too.

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Record: 0-0

  • WNBA YTD (Year To Date):
  • Overall: 10-9
  • Favs: 5-6, Dogs 1-1
  • Overs 2-1, Unders 2-1

Review: I slipped by with a 1-point win using Minnesota, but missed by 4 points with the Over in the Indy/Phx game. I had quarters of 46, 41, and 44 heading into the 4th quarter, meaning all I needed was 43 to get a Push at worst case. That number was right in line with the first three quarters, but the 4th came in at 39. I lost, but it was a really fun game to watch.

Today’s bet

Slim Pickens to choose from tonight but I’m going to take a chance with the Seattle Storm.
This game that fits a trend reversal system I use that says take the Storm to beat the Dallas Wings.

The overall record is 11- 13, not much of an edge to make me want to take Seattle.

And it’s even worse for home teams like Seattle is tonight, the record is 3-6.

The only saving grace I have is Home teams in this spot are 6-5.

So with not a lot of numbers in my favor why am I taking Seattle?

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Let’s start with the fact that Seattle IS going to win the game. That means I only have to worry about the spread. And yes, the spread is high but it’s where it should be against Dallas, the worst team in the league at 4-14.

But the main reason I’m taking Seattle is because they’re killers on their home court.
Starting with their most recent victory they’ve won by 21 (against tonight’s opponent, Dallas) 12, 11 (against Connecticut, the number one defense in the league), 17, 18, 32, and 2, an average of 16 points per game.

Dallas has lost five of the last six by double digits and I’m looking for one more tonight.

Sea -11′

Open bet : Oklahoma -40′
June record, all sports, 16-13

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TRAFFIC ALERT: Why eastbound West Seattle Bridge traffic was stopped at Fauntleroy end

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TRAFFIC ALERT: Why eastbound West Seattle Bridge traffic was stopped at Fauntleroy end


(Screengrab from 8:09 pm)

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8:11 PM: This was supposed to be fairly quick but for some reason it’s taking crews a while to reposition a barrier near the Fauntleroy end of the eastbound West Seattle Bridge, and dozens of drivers are stuck waiting. If you have to head eastbound, get on the bridge another way.

8:15 PM: The dispatcher just told SPD that SDOT needs “traffic control” for another barrier fix closer to the bridge entrance at 35th; an officer replied, “Just as soon as this one gets figured out.” So avoid 35th/Fauntleroy entirely for a while.

8:19 PM: The live camera just east of 35th shows SDOT now blocking the inside eastbound lane but the others have reopened.

8:30 PM: Now they’re blocking all eastbound lanes again just past the Fauntleroy entrance, per police radio.

9:27 PM: Still blocked, per live view on traffic cameras.

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Seahawks have a Super Bowl roster decision to make by Tuesday

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Seahawks have a Super Bowl roster decision to make by Tuesday


The Seattle Seahawks are set to fly to San Jose on Sunday ahead of Super Bowl 60 against the New England Patriots. Before their Wednesday practice, they’ll have to decide on whether or not their final eligible player to come off injured reserve will indeed be part of the active roster again.

The 21-day practice window

Seattle’s first practice with an injury report for Super Bowl week is Wednesday, Feb. 4, so either Surratt is practicing that day or his season is over. We’ll know by Tuesday.

Who could Chazz Surratt replace on the active roster?

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Should he return to the active roster, then the Seahawks will have to make a corresponding move to make room, which means either waiving a player during Super Bowl week or stashing a currently injured Seahawk on IR. The most likely candidate is rookie tackle Amari Kight, who was inactive against the Los Angeles Rams and was listed as doubtful in Friday’s game designations. It’s possible that Kight could end up with the same IR stash as fellow rookie Bryce Cabeldue.

It’s also worth monitoring the health of fullback Robbie Ouzts, who missed the NFC Championship Game with a neck injury and was limited in practice all week.

What happens if Chazz Surratt reverts to IR?

Nothing, I suppose. Seattle doesn’t have to tweak the active roster, Surratt doesn’t play in the Super Bowl, and while the Seahawks do keep their IR-return slot, no one else on injured reserve is coming back this year.



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Seattle Mariners FanFest: Quick hits from Dipoto, Cal, more

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Seattle Mariners FanFest: Quick hits from Dipoto, Cal, more


It was good to see the ballpark buzzing once again as the full-fledged Seattle Mariners FanFest returned to T-Mobile Park.

Steelheads uniforms will be Mariners’ new home Sunday look

Fans had the opportunity to get behind the scenes and tour the Mariners’ and visitor’s clubhouses, run the bases, take a picture at home plate with the trident and throw from the bullpen mound. There were autograph opportunities and “Dugout Dialogues” as well, with numerous players on hand taking part, including Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, George Kirby, Gabe Speier and a number of the Mariners’ highly touted prospects.

On the airwaves and in person, Gary Hill, Aaron Goldsmith and I held a live Hot Stove Show from Edgar’s Cantina, with former Mariners center fielder Franklin Gutierrez, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, Raleigh, Speier, Kirby and Emerson Hancock stopping by.

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Here are some quick hits from those conversations.

Guti talks J-Rod and Laz

Gutierrez, who has been working with Mariners outfielders since 2021 as a special assignment coach, raised an eyebrow when he talked about Rodríguez – who this week was named baseball’s best center fielder by MLB Network.

“He is still developing as one of the best in the business,” Gutierrez said. “He likes to listen, he likes to improve on every area of his game. That’s why he’s going to be so successful.”

So, he thinks the ceiling for Rodriguez in center field is even higher?

“I do,” Gutierrez said. “He’s still grinding in there. He’s still asking questions about how he can get better, especially how he can prepare himself on every pitch, how he can move better. All of those questions are very important for him just to be who he wants to be.”

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Gutierrez raised another ceiling when talking about highly touted outfield prospect Lazaro Montes, who he has also worked closely with.

“His attitude is pretty much like Julio’s,” Gutierrez said. “He’s different. He will be (a corner outfielder), but he wants to get better. He wants to know what he can do better in the outfield, how he can move. I think he is still young, still developing. In my mind, I think he’s going to be a really, really, really good player. He’s not going to be average. I think he is going to be a little bit above average in the outfield.”

Dipoto: M’s not done adding

Dipoto indicated not once, but twice, that the Mariners are not finished when it comes to player acquisitions.

When asked to sum up the offseason, he said they were still working to make an addition. And then again, he echoed that sentiment when asked what they were bringing into spring training in two weeks compared to what they finished the season with on the field in Game 7 of the ALCS in Toronto.

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“I do think there is one more player that is coming along for the ride that is not in a Mariners uniform just yet,” Dipoto said.

WBC creates spring training opportunity for M’s prospects

Another topic addressed was the World Baseball Classic, which will take a large number of players out of Mariners camp.

“We have in the organization 19 players on preliminary rosters – 13 are associated with the big league team – and we think we will lose 11 when it starts,” Dipoto said. “Only the Dodgers have more.”

This leaves huge opportunity for the Mariners’ prospects in spring training. Dipoto relayed a conversation he had with Colt Emerson earlier in the day, with his message being to take advantage of the runway we are giving you. He’s excited to see what the 20-year-old top prospect is able to do.

“He’s not going to knock on the door. He’s just going to knock it down. You know when you are watching it,” Dipoto said. “We trust that if these guys come into spring training and do their thing and are ready to go, we are going to give them their chance.”

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Speier, Cal discuss WBC invites

Among those leaving camp will be Speier, who was thrilled to be selected to Team USA. He shared the story of how he got the news after a workout when he saw a missed call notice on his phone from: “Maybe Mark DeRosa.”

“Just the feelings going through me when I saw this, it was an easy yes,” Speier said.

It has been quite an ascension for Speier, who was pitching at Triple-A just two years ago.

“It’s wild to just take a step back and reflect how I got to this point,” Speier said. “A lot of thanks to the M’s for believing in me and claiming me off waivers from Kansas City and putting the ball in my hands in big spots. I’m proud to play for Team USA and rep the country. It’s wild to think about.”

Raleigh was also an “easy yes” to DeRosa and Team USA. Perhaps a little too easy.

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“We were in New York playing the Mets and D-Ro called me,” Raleigh said. “I was super excited. I was like, yes, I’m in. I was so excited. Dream came true. Such a cool thing to do. I committed.”

Did he perhaps forget something that day?

“It kind of hit me a couple of days after – Oh, I didn’t tell Jerry or Justin (Hollander) or Dan (Wilson). I might get in trouble for this,” Raleigh said sheepishly. “So I had to backtrack a little bit, reach out and ask. I think they knew. I think D-Ro called them too, but I was like, hey, I kind of went the wrong way. I said yes because I was so excited, but having to backtrack, I thought it was kind of funny.”

Catching up with Kirby and Hancock

It was good to catch up with Kirby, who has not added a new pitch but, as always, was happy to talk about his knuckleball.

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It was interesting to hear that he had been throwing bullpens to new catcher Andrew Knizer in Florida. Last week on the Hot Stove Show, Logan Gilbert noted Knizer had called him a few times and was going about the business of learning the pitchers.

Hancock is an interesting one heading into spring training. With the loss of Logan Evans to UCL surgery, pitching as a reliever exclusively appears to be off the table for Hancock, and he is preparing as such.

“I think this offseason has just been the normal build-up, then just adjust if we have to,” Hancock said.

Hancock’s attitude and outlook about his role over the last year has been fantastic, despite often not knowing where he will be day to day.

“Just go out there and enjoy it with the guys. Be grateful for the job you have been given and do the best you can when your name is called,” Hancock said. “It was a good year.

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“The baseball season is so long, there is so much up and down and so much you learn, and then the next thing you know, you’re out of the bullpen,” he said with a laugh. “But awesome. What a year, what an experience, the run that we had. And to share it with the fans, it was incredible.”

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Seattle Mariners lose RHP Logan Evans to UCL surgery
• Seattle Mariners’ non-roster spring invites include top picks of 2025
• Logan Gilbert has the scoop on what Mariners’ rotation has been up to
• Mariners reveal the ways to watch games on TV this season
• Coach’s Insight: Why this could be Julio’s big year






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