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Battling the Books | July 1

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Battling the Books | July 1


It’s official. June is in the books.
How did I do?
In my very first article here at PredictEm I stated my goals for sports betting, and I’ll restate them here:
1 – Do Not Lose Money
2 – Finish with a Profit – ANY Profit
3 – Seek the Grail: 67%
And of course – HAVE FUN!

Along with a lot of other advice for new bettors, (and any of you who are trying to stop bleeding cash and get your bankroll back to the plus side of the ledger) I recommended not treating your sports betting as an open ended, never ending war. Set goals for time frames (weeks or months) and sports (keep separate records and numbers for college football, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.)
Win enough battles and you’ll win the war.

June was the first window I had. Overall, all sports, I came in at 16-13, enough to bank a small profit.
I hit goal number one and two.
And I had a LOT of fun, crunching numbers and sharing my tips, methods, and picks with you.

Round one in my Battle with the Books has ended, and the judge’s scorecards have it as a 10-9 round for me.

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The next window I have is July.
Same goals, as always.

The WNBA season started on May 14th, so I now have six weeks worth of data to help me try to Beat the Books in July. That should make it easier, BUT . . . I’ll have limited opportunities as the league goes on break for the All-Star game and then the Olympics.

The All Star break begins on July 18th, and they don’t come back from the Olympic break until August 14.
Like I said, limited opportunities in July.

So where will I get some action?
Hell if I know.

NASCAR?
Possibly. Depends on what track they’re at.
Even with money on it I can’t watch when they’re racing at tracks that are boring.
I need a high percentage possibility of metal hitting metal, or walls, or else my Sunday afternoon TV viewing finds me channel flipping over to Wicked Tuna. Or Naked and Afraid (but only if the chick on it is hot. If not, it’s back to channel flipping, looking for something that can hold my attention. Yes, that’s shallow, I know, but I’ve come to accept my shortcomings.)

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CFL?
Possibly. But despite having been fortunate enough to live in Vancouver, BC for two years, I still find the northern version of the game a little bit weird.
Unlike football here in the US, in Canada you can score one point without kicking an extra point. I’m not sure how, I could look it up but I just don’t care enough to take time to do so. It has something to do with punt returns, or not returned, or something. And I still don’t get how the clock could show .00, which in the normal world means the game is over, but in the country that is responsible for Loverboy and Nickelback they can still run one more play.
But they did give us Norm Macdonald, so Canada will always be okay in my book.

Boxing?
It’s always been my favorite sport, but there just aren’t enough quality, evenly matched bouts to make it advantageous from a wagering point of view. Seems like every time I check the odds the favorite is -1,200.00 or higher. At the Sports book I’d see people lay odds like those and I had to refrain myself from asking, “You’re risking $1,200 to win $100. So what is it that you’re going to do with $1,300 that you couldn’t do with $1,200?”
It just doesn’t make sense to me.

Tennis? Golf? Soccer???
I don’t think so.

Like life in general, I’ll just take things day by day.

Note – all of the advice I offer is based on years as a bettor and years of experience gained while running a sports book in Vegas. I never say it’s the right way, I only say it works for me. And it can work for you, too.

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Record: 0-0

  • WNBA YTD (Year To Date):
  • Overall: 10-9
  • Favs: 5-6, Dogs 1-1
  • Overs 2-1, Unders 2-1

Review: I slipped by with a 1-point win using Minnesota, but missed by 4 points with the Over in the Indy/Phx game. I had quarters of 46, 41, and 44 heading into the 4th quarter, meaning all I needed was 43 to get a Push at worst case. That number was right in line with the first three quarters, but the 4th came in at 39. I lost, but it was a really fun game to watch.

Today’s bet

Slim Pickens to choose from tonight but I’m going to take a chance with the Seattle Storm.
This game that fits a trend reversal system I use that says take the Storm to beat the Dallas Wings.

The overall record is 11- 13, not much of an edge to make me want to take Seattle.

And it’s even worse for home teams like Seattle is tonight, the record is 3-6.

The only saving grace I have is Home teams in this spot are 6-5.

So with not a lot of numbers in my favor why am I taking Seattle?

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Let’s start with the fact that Seattle IS going to win the game. That means I only have to worry about the spread. And yes, the spread is high but it’s where it should be against Dallas, the worst team in the league at 4-14.

But the main reason I’m taking Seattle is because they’re killers on their home court.
Starting with their most recent victory they’ve won by 21 (against tonight’s opponent, Dallas) 12, 11 (against Connecticut, the number one defense in the league), 17, 18, 32, and 2, an average of 16 points per game.

Dallas has lost five of the last six by double digits and I’m looking for one more tonight.

Sea -11′

Open bet : Oklahoma -40′
June record, all sports, 16-13

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Las Vegas and Seattle are the front-runners if NBA expansion to 32 teams happens

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Las Vegas and Seattle are the front-runners if NBA expansion to 32 teams happens


LAS VEGAS (AP) — The NBA plans to make a decision regarding domestic expansion in the coming year, Commissioner Adam Silver said Tuesday, offering the most definitive timeline since the league began exploring the possibility of moving from 30 to 32 teams.

And if there are favorites, as has long been expected, Las Vegas and Seattle are at the top of the list.

“Not a secret, we’re looking at this market in Las Vegas. We are looking at Seattle,” Silver said before the NBA Cup final between San Antonio and New York. “We’ve looked at other markets as well. I’d say I want to be sensitive there about this notion that we’re somehow teasing these markets, because I know we’ve been talking about it for a while.”

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Expansion has been a topic for years in the NBA, and it’s no secret that Seattle — which had a team until the SuperSonics were moved to Oklahoma City in 2008 — and Las Vegas have long been clamoring for franchises.

“I think Seattle and Las Vegas are two incredible cities,” Silver said. “Obviously we had a team in Seattle that had great success. We have a WNBA team here in Las Vegas in the Aces. … I don’t have any doubt that Las Vegas, despite all of the other major league teams that are here now, the other entertainment properties, that this city could support an NBA team.

“I think now we’re in the process of working with our teams and gauging the level of interest and having a better understanding of what the economics would be on the ground for those particular teams and what a pro forma would look like for them, and then sometime in 2026 we’ll make a determination.”

Cup future

Silver revealed on Amazon Prime Video’s pregame show for the NBA Cup final that the title game of the tournament may move away from Las Vegas.

Among the sites under consideration: “Some storied college arenas,” Silver said. “We’re looking at other ways we can do this.”

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Semifinal games in the Cup will be played at No. 1 seed home sites starting next season, so the concept of a final four in Las Vegas was going to change in 2026 anyway.

Cup viewership increases

Going to a streaming service hasn’t prevented fans from watching the NBA Cup.

Saturday night’s semifinals on Prime Video — in its first season as a league broadcast partner — averaged 1.67 million viewers, a 14% increase over last season’s semifinals.

And Saturday’s doubleheader — San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City and New York vs. Toronto — saw a 126% year-over-year increase in social media views, the league said, with more than 400 million views across all platforms.

NBA Europe plans

Silver hinted that there might be some news next month on the plans for the NBA’s project with FIBA to start a league in Europe.

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That makes sense, with the league set to play regular-season games in Berlin and London next month when Orlando and Memphis go over for a pair of matchups.

“I would say we’re casting a very, very wide net right now and essentially saying to anyone who’s interested, come see our bankers, explain to us why you’re interested, how you view the opportunity, what resources you would put behind opening a team, and then we’re taking all that information back,” Silver said. “And then I think sometime in late January, or in January, we’ll be in a position to have more serious conversations with those interested parties.”

Silver said he got the news on Chris Paul being sent home by the Los Angeles Clippers the same way basically everyone else did: He checked his phone in the middle of the night.

“I will say I was dismayed just for everyone involved,” Silver said. “As you know, I’m particularly close to Chris because he was president of the Players Association many years. … I would love to see him finish off the season on another team. He’s already announced this is his last season, so I’d love to see him finish strong.”

Silver said it’s not his role “to cross-examine the participants” and added that he hasn’t talked to Clippers owner Steve Ballmer about what happened.

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“It’s an unfortunate situation that it ended the way it did,” Silver said. “So, I’m focused, and I hope Chris is now, on the future.”

Silver says WNBA talks are progressing

Silver said he and NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum are available to help the WNBA and its players strike a new labor deal, if needed.

Silver said he’s “optimistic” a deal will get done.

“I’m tracking things very closely,” Silver said. “We’re integrated at the league office. I talk to the people who are at the negotiating table on a daily basis. As I’ve said before, we, the NBA-WNBA collective, acknowledged that our players deserve to be paid significantly more than they have so far based on the increased success of the league. It’s just a question now of finding a meeting of the minds in terms of what is a fair deal. It’s going to require compromise on both sides.”

___

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AP NBA: https://apnews.com/NBA



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Why Seattle Seahawks continue to impress Mark Schlereth

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Why Seattle Seahawks continue to impress Mark Schlereth


The Seattle Seahawks keep winning football games, but recently the offense has been showing signs of regression after a strong start to the season.

How injury to Rams star could impact clash with Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s offensive woes were magnified in its 18-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The unit had another slow first half, producing just 80 yards, and didn’t reach the end zone the entire game. The running game also produced just 50 yards on 22 carries. However, the Seahawks able to put together six drives that ended in field goals to squeak by a team they were heavily favored against.

Over its past five games, four of which were wins, the Seahawks have only one first-half touchdown. All four of those wins have come against teams starting unproven rookies or past-their-prime veterans, including a 44-year-old Philip Rivers who was playing in his first game since retiring after the 2020 season. The one loss came against Matthew Stafford and the Rams, who the Seahawks face in a pivotal NFC West showdown on Thursday.

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Have Seattle’s recent problems on offense, particularly the slow starts in the first half, become a big concern moving forward? FOX color analyst and former NFL offensive lineman Mark Schlereth doesn’t seem to think so. Schlereth explained why the bottom line with the Seahawks team is that it keeps finding ways to win football games during his weekly conversation with Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob on Monday.

“Everybody game plans you, everybody’s got really good players. It’s hard to consistently win,” Schlereth said. “I think there’s a lot to be said for finding ways to win.”

Similar to when the Seahawks beat a Vikings squad led by undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer in Week 13 after a slow start on offense, Schlereth saw the victory over the Colts as the Seahawks adapting to an opponent with a good defense but a quarterback who likely wasn’t going to be able to beat them without mistakes on Seattle’s end. And to the Seahawks’ credit, they didn’t have any turnovers against Indianapolis, which entered the game tied for the eighth-most takeaways in the league.

“I talked about the way the Indianapolis approached this game (with) the quick (passing) game, getting rid of it, screens, all those different things. Sometimes when the coaching staff puts a game plan together, it’s not necessarily about scoring 50. It’s about, how do we win this game?” Schlereth said. “And sometimes the best way to win a game is to say, ‘Hey man, we just can’t let our quarterback get hit, or we just can’t take a risk with the football,’ whatever that happens to be that week, and every week it changes.

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“Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you lack some efficiency. But the bottom line to me is every week you find ways to win, that to me is the sign of a really good football team, and it’s done in a bunch of different fashions. So I just tip my cap.”

Schlereth added that one aspect that gives him confidence in Seattle’s offense to come through when needed is the connection between quarterback Sam Darnold and league-leading receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

“I will say this, the connection between Sam Darnold and (Jaxon) Smith-Njigba is special,” he said. “When they’ve got to have a big-time play, when they’ve got to have yardage, they seem to be able to find those yards, those big-time plays. That part to me is special.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-7 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

Seattle Seahawks coverage

• Macdonald explains strategy behind game-winning decision vs Colts
• Seattle Seahawks’ win over Colts was ugly, which is why it was great
• Has a problem emerged for the Seattle Seahawks’ offense?
• Where the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks stand in NFC playoff picture
• Stacy Rost: Where Seattle Seahawks’ offense is trending in wrong direction

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WEST SEATTLE CRIME WATCH: Gunfire at Westcrest Park

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WEST SEATTLE CRIME WATCH: Gunfire at Westcrest Park






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