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NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?

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NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?


Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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We made a model to determine the odds for every potential San Francisco 49ers playoff opponent.

As the NFL regular season comes to a close today, the final pieces of the NFL playoff picture are falling into place. The San Francisco 49ers have already secured the top seed in the NFC, but their path to the Super Bowl is far from clear, as one of nine potential teams will travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners in the home team’s first playoff game.

The Niners plan to rest a number of their starters today, similar to their opponent–the Los Angeles Rams–who have already secured a wild-card spot. On its face, this afternoon’s game appears to hold little meaning; However, it will play a pivotal role in shaping the now-blurry NFC playoff picture, as only the No. 1 seed is currently secured.

So, who will the 49ers first playoff opponent be? Well, that’s easy–we’ll just create a model. And by “create,” I mean “borrow” (with permission, h/t below) from existing models, mix them together with my predictive model, toss it in the simulation oven for 45 minutes at 350 degrees, and voilà!

The San Francisco 49ers will play one of the following teams:

Los Angeles Rams

Again? Yes, the most likely team among San Francisco’s nine potential opponents is the one the 49ers play today, and the two squads may clash again, regardless of the outcome of the game. With a victory today, the Rams will secure the No. 6 seed; If the Niners prevail, Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. Either way, the Rams will play one of three potential teams: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, or the Detroit Lions, and a victory in the opening round will most likely send the Rams back to the Bay Area the following week. Although this is the most likely scenario among many, it’s far from a sure thing at 26 percent.

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Philadelphia Eagles

“Been there, done that.” But not so fast, because the Eagles may be back again–although this time, it won’t be on their home field. If the Eagles lose or the Cowboys win, Philadelphia is relegated to the No. 5 seed, and will face the winner of the NFC South. In this scenario, if Philadelphia is only wild-card team to pull off an upset, their next game will be at Levi’s Stadium. Overall, a repeat playoff matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is the second most-likely outcome for the Niners, at 23 percent.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If all three NFC division winners win on their home turf next week, the NFC South Champion will head to the Bay in the second round. This team is most likely to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after winning four of their last five games, will secure the top spot in the NFC South with a victory over the two-win Carolina Panthers today. Overall, the odds of a 49ers-Bucs matchup in the divisional round are 18 percent.

Green Bay Packers

Today’s 49ers game has a clear and direct impact on this scenario. While the Green Bay Packers have a slight chance of holding on to a wild-card spot if they lose to the 7-9 Chicago Bears today, the 8-8 Packers are in if they win. Green Bay will be locked into one of the two last playoff spots, along with the 9-win Rams. Since Green Bay holds the tie-breaker, the outcome of today’s 49ers-Rams game will determine the order of the two final teams. If Green Bay pulls off an upset next week, The 49ers’ first opponent will be either the Rams or the Packers; the odds it’s the Packers? 14 percent.

Seattle Seahawks

A Packers loss would open the door for the Seattle Seahawks to squeeze into the playoffs with a win today, along with a loss by the Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints. If the 7-seed Seahawks win their first game, they’ll head to San Francisco. One year after beating the Seahawks three times in the same season, the 49ers will be forced into a repeat scenario, but only at an 8-percent rate.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints’ playoff road to the Bay is similar to that of the Buccaneers. If the Saints are the unlikely NFC South champs, and all division winners win next week, the 49ers will play New Orleans in the second round. This scenario is a long-shot at 5 percent.

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Dallas Cowboys

Like the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys have a broad range of potential playoff paths. If the Cowboys lose their way back into the top wild-card spot, they’ll face the winner of the NFC South. If Dallas can then win on the road, and the two remaining division winners prevail, then yet another 49ers-Cowboys playoff game is on the horizon. But in the end, the odds are unlikely, at just 4 percent.

Atlanta Falcons

It’s technically possible for the 7-win Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. If they do, and then take a similar path as the one described above, San Francisco would be their second round opponent. It’s rather difficult to picture this scenario, which comes in at approximately 1 percent.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs, which would require a victory, and a lot of help–including losses by both the Packers and Seahawks, as well as one of the NFC South’s top-2 teams. If the Vikings are in, and then pull off the upset in the opening round, their next matchup would be the 49ers. Yes, the odds are more than zero, but just barely, at less than 1 percent.

Credit to nflverse for significant portions of code and data.
Thanks to Sebastian Carl, Ben Baldwin, Lee Sharpe, Tan Ho, and John Edwards.

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The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.

The San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday, guaranteeing a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage. The team still has one more game to play, a somewhat inconsequential clash with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams earned a playoff berth this weekend by defeating the New York Giants and witnessing the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Seattle Seahawks.

Able to bypass the first week of playoff games, the 49ers will await the weakest-seeded victor from the Wild Card Round.

Below are the current playoff standings with Week 17 in the books. This is what the NFC postseason picture would look like of the season

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On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. With little at stake in their regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 provides an excellent opportunity for some ailing players, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, to rest and recover.

However, only some starters will get the week off entirely. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained this week that the 49ers still need to field a team against the Rams.

“When you give guys the game off, practice changes, too, and that can end up hurting guys a lot, and you end up just developing bad

The San Francisco 49ers have disclosed their quarterback strategy for the upcoming regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters that Brock Purdy will not play on Sunday, providing the quarterback a two-week break leading into the playoffs.

Earlier today, the Rams announced that Carson Wentz would start against the 49ers instead of Matthew Stafford. While San Francisco has secured the No. 1 seed in the postseason, Los Angeles will be seeded either sixth or seventh, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game.

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“Brock’s the only guy for sure I know I don’t plan on playing,” Shanahan said.

That means it will be Sam

Safety Tashaun Gipson was on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s lengthy list of San Francisco 49ers players who will not practice on Wednesday, the first on-field session ahead of the team’s regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Gipson is sidelined with a quad strain and will not recover in time to play this weekend.

“Gip ended up—I think we got it yesterday—he had a quad strain, so that could be anywhere seven to 10 days,” Shanahan informed reporters. “So the odds—that can heal faster, too—but just with our situation, the odds aren’t there.”

The other 49ers players not expected to practice on Wednesday are defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot, knee), running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), guard Jon

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San Francisco has a tax plan to save Muni

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San Francisco has a tax plan to save Muni


A parcel tax plan to rescue Muni would charge most homeowners at least $129 annually if voters approve the policy in November.

The finalized tax scheme, which updates a version presented Dec. 8, comes after weeks of negotiations between city officials and transit advocates.

The plan lowers the levels previously proposed for owners of apartment and condo buildings. They would still pay a $249 base tax up to 5,000 square feet of property, but additional square footage would be taxed at 19.5 cents, versus the previous 30 cents. The tax would be capped at $50,000.

The plan also adds provisions limiting how much of the tax can be passed through to tenants in rent-controlled buildings. Owners of rent-controlled properties would be able to pass through up to 50% of the parcel tax on a unit, with a cap of $65 a year.

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These changes bring the total estimated annual tax revenue from $187 million to $183 million and earmark 10% for expanding transit service.

What you pay depends on what kind of property you or your landlord owns. There are three tiers: single-family homes, apartment and condo buildings, and commercial properties.

Owners of single-family homes smaller than 3,000 square feet would pay the base tax of $129 per year. Homes between 3,000 and 5,000 square feet would pay the base tax plus an additional 42 cents per square foot, and any home above 5,000 square feet would be taxed at an added $1.99 per square foot.

Source: Jeremy Chen/The Standard

Commercial landlords would face a $799 base tax for buildings up to 5,000 square feet, with per-square-foot rates that scale with the property size, up to a maximum of $400,000.

The finalized plan was presented by Julie Kirschbaum, director of transportation at the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, at a board meeting Tuesday.

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The plan proposed in December was criticized for failing to set aside funds to increase transit service and not including pass-through restrictions for tenants.

The tax is meant to close SFMTA’s $307 million budget gap, which stems from lagging ridership post-pandemic and the expiration of emergency federal funding. Without additional funding, the agency would be forced to drastically cut service. The parcel tax, a regional sales tax measure, and cost-cutting, would all be needed to close the fiscal gap.

The next steps for the parcel tax are creating draft legislation and launching a signature-gathering campaign to place the measure on the ballot.

Any measure would need review by the city attorney’s office. But all stakeholders have agreed on the tax structure presented Tuesday, according to Emma Hare, an aide to Supervisor Myrna Melgar, whose office led negotiations over the tax between advocates and City Hall.

“It’s final,” Hare said. “We just need to write it down.”

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Claims in lawsuit against Great Highway park dismissed by San Francisco judge

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Claims in lawsuit against Great Highway park dismissed by San Francisco judge


A San Francisco Superior Court judge dismissed claims in a lawsuit against Proposition K, the ballot measure that permanently cleared traffic from the Great Highway to make way for a two-mile park. 

One advocacy group, Friends of Sunset Dunes, said the legal action affirmed Proposition K’s legal standing and called the lawsuit against the park “wasteful.” 

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Proposition K passed with more than 54% of the vote in November 2024, but the debate didn’t end there. The Sunset District supervisor was recalled in the aftermath of that vote by residents in the district who argued their streets would be flooded by traffic and that the decision by voters citywide to close a major thoroughfare in their area was out of touch with the local community. 

What they’re saying:

Friends of Sunset Dunes hailed the judge’s decision in the lawsuit, Boschetto vs the City and County of San Francisco, as a victory. 

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“After two ballot measures, two lawsuits, three failed appeals, and dozens of hours of public meetings and untold administrative time and cost, this ruling affirms Proposition K’s legal foundation, and affirms the city’s authority to move forward in creating a permanent coastal park to serve future generations of San Franciscans,” the group said in a statement. 

The group added that their volunteers are working to bring the coastal park to life. Meanwhile, “anti-park zealots continue to waste more public resources in their attempt to overturn the will of the people and close Sunset Dunes.” 

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“Now that they’ve lost two lawsuits and two elections, we invite them to accept the will of San Franciscans and work with us to make the most of our collective coastal park,” said Lucas Lux, president of Friends of Sunset Dunes. 

The supervisor for the Sunset District, Alan Wong, doubled down on what he had stated earlier. In a statement on Monday, Wong said he is “prepared to support a ballot initiative to reopen the Great Highway and restore the original compromise.” The compromise he’s referring to is vehicles allowed to drive along the highway on weekdays and a closure to traffic on the weekends. 

Wong, in his statement, added that he’s talked to constituents in his district across the political spectrum and that his values align with the majority of district 4 residents and organizations. 

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When he was sworn in last month, Wong indicated he was open to revisiting the issue of reopening the Great Highway to traffic. He also said he voted against Proposition K, which cleared the way and made Sunset Dunes official. 

Engardio’s two-cents

Last September, Joel Engardio was recalled as the Sunset District supervisor in a special election. The primary reason for his ouster was his support of Sunset Dunes, the park which also saw the support of other prominent politicians, including former Mayor London Breed, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and State Senator Scott Wiener. 

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Engardio on Monday issued his own statement after the judge dismissed all claims in the lawsuit against Prop. K. 

“It’s time to consider Sunset Dunes settled. Too many people have seen how the park is good for the environment, local businesses, and the physical and mental health of every visitor,” Engardio said. “Future generations will see this as a silly controversy because the park’s benefits far outweigh the fears of traffic jams that never happened. The coast belongs to everyone and it won’t be long before a majority everywhere will embrace the wonderful and magical Sunset Dunes.” 

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Commentary: Let’s Do Better in 2026 – Streetsblog San Francisco

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Commentary: Let’s Do Better in 2026 – Streetsblog San Francisco


Editor’s note: special thanks to all our Streetsblog supporters! We fulfilled our 2025 fundraising goals. If you’d like to help us do even more, it’s not too late to donate.

I was on my way to dinner with friends on Christmas Eve when my westbound K Ingleside train was turned back at West Portal without explanation. I waited for the next train. It was turned back too. I asked one of the Muni drivers what was going on, and he said no M Ocean View or K Ingleside trains were running past the station.

I guessed it had something to do with the weather—the rain was coming down in sheets. I realized getting an Uber or Lyft at the station, with everybody else doing the same thing, probably wasn’t going to work. I had a good umbrella and rain coat so I started to walk down West Portal Avenue, ducking under awnings as I looked for a good spot to call a Lyft.

I didn’t get far before I saw why the trains were stopped, as seen in the lead photo.

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I don’t know exactly how this blundering driver managed to bottom out his car on the barrier between the tracks. But, for me, it symbolized everything that’s wrong with San Francisco’s auto-uber-alles policies that continue to put the needs of individual drivers above buses and trains full of people. Mayor Lurie reiterated San Francisco’s supposed transit-first policy in his end-of-year directive. But if it’s a transit-first city, why are motorists still prioritized and permitted to drive on busy train tracks in the first place?

Photo of West Portal Ave.’s original configuration, before it was “upgraded” with angled parking and to allow drivers to use the tracks. Photo: Open SF History

Why isn’t the barrier in West Portal positioned to keep drivers from using the tracks, as it was historically? Why do we even have pavement on the tracks? And why haven’t we banned drivers from using West Portal Avenue and Ulloa Street as thoroughfares in the first place, where they regularly interfere with and delay trains?

I should have stopped walking and summoned a Lyft. But being forced by the shitty politics of San Francisco, combined with a shitty driver, to call yet another car, pissed me off. I thought about all the people who got off those trains who can’t afford to call a ride-hail. I thought about the hundreds of people trapped inside trains that were stuck between stations. I continued walking and thinking about all the times I’ve visited Europe and been through similarly busy, vibrant merchant corridors such as West Portal with one major difference: no cars.

Amsterdam. Not saying to turn West Portal into a pedestrian mall necessarily, but it shows what’s possible. Photo: Streetsblog/Rudick

Yes, even on “car-free” streets in Europe, typically cars and delivery vehicles can still cross and access the shops directly for deliveries. But some streets are just not meant to be a motoring free-for-all. Anybody who doubts that merchants flourish in car-free and car-lite environments should either get a passport, or they should take a look at the merchant receipts after a Sunday Streets event. On the other hand, Papenhausen Hardware, which helped block a safety plan that prioritized transit movements through West Portal, went out of business anyway in 2024.

As I walked in the driving rain, my thoughts drifted to 2024’s tragedy, in which a reckless driver wiped out a family of four when she crashed onto a sidewalk in West Portal. San Francisco had an opportunity to finally implement a transit-first project and prevent a future tragedy by banning most drivers from the tracks and preventing them from using West Portal as a cut through. And yet, a supposedly safe-streets ally, Supervisor Myrna Melgar, aligned with a subset of the merchants in West Portal and sabotaged the project.

Since then, I’m aware of at least one other incident in West Portal where an errant driver went up on the sidewalk and hit a building. Thankfully, there wasn’t a family in the way that time. Either way, West Portal Avenue, and a whole lot of other streets that have hosted horrible tragedies, are still as dangerous as ever thanks to the lack of political commitment and an unwillingness to change.

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Another look at the car that blocked Muni on Christmas Eve. Photo: Streetsblog/Rudick

I finally got to my friends’ house, 35 minutes later. They loaned me some dry clothes and put my jeans in the dryer. We had a lovely meal and a great time. My friend drove me to BART for an uneventful trip home (not that BART is always impervious to driver insanity).

In 2026, advocates, allies, and friends, we all need to raise the bar and find a way to make sure politicians follow through on transit first, Vision Zero, and making San Francisco safe. Because the half-assed improvements made in West Portal and elsewhere aren’t enough. And the status quo isn’t working.

On a closely related note, be sure to sign this petition, demanding that SFMTA finish the transit-only lanes on Ocean Avenue.



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