San Francisco, CA
NFL Playoff Picture: Who will the San Francisco 49ers play in their first playoff game?
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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We made a model to determine the odds for every potential San Francisco 49ers playoff opponent.
As the NFL regular season comes to a close today, the final pieces of the NFL playoff picture are falling into place. The San Francisco 49ers have already secured the top seed in the NFC, but their path to the Super Bowl is far from clear, as one of nine potential teams will travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners in the home team’s first playoff game.
The Niners plan to rest a number of their starters today, similar to their opponent–the Los Angeles Rams–who have already secured a wild-card spot. On its face, this afternoon’s game appears to hold little meaning; However, it will play a pivotal role in shaping the now-blurry NFC playoff picture, as only the No. 1 seed is currently secured.
So, who will the 49ers first playoff opponent be? Well, that’s easy–we’ll just create a model. And by “create,” I mean “borrow” (with permission, h/t below) from existing models, mix them together with my predictive model, toss it in the simulation oven for 45 minutes at 350 degrees, and voilà!
The San Francisco 49ers will play one of the following teams:
Los Angeles Rams
Again? Yes, the most likely team among San Francisco’s nine potential opponents is the one the 49ers play today, and the two squads may clash again, regardless of the outcome of the game. With a victory today, the Rams will secure the No. 6 seed; If the Niners prevail, Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. Either way, the Rams will play one of three potential teams: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, or the Detroit Lions, and a victory in the opening round will most likely send the Rams back to the Bay Area the following week. Although this is the most likely scenario among many, it’s far from a sure thing at 26 percent.
Philadelphia Eagles
“Been there, done that.” But not so fast, because the Eagles may be back again–although this time, it won’t be on their home field. If the Eagles lose or the Cowboys win, Philadelphia is relegated to the No. 5 seed, and will face the winner of the NFC South. In this scenario, if Philadelphia is only wild-card team to pull off an upset, their next game will be at Levi’s Stadium. Overall, a repeat playoff matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is the second most-likely outcome for the Niners, at 23 percent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If all three NFC division winners win on their home turf next week, the NFC South Champion will head to the Bay in the second round. This team is most likely to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after winning four of their last five games, will secure the top spot in the NFC South with a victory over the two-win Carolina Panthers today. Overall, the odds of a 49ers-Bucs matchup in the divisional round are 18 percent.
Green Bay Packers
Today’s 49ers game has a clear and direct impact on this scenario. While the Green Bay Packers have a slight chance of holding on to a wild-card spot if they lose to the 7-9 Chicago Bears today, the 8-8 Packers are in if they win. Green Bay will be locked into one of the two last playoff spots, along with the 9-win Rams. Since Green Bay holds the tie-breaker, the outcome of today’s 49ers-Rams game will determine the order of the two final teams. If Green Bay pulls off an upset next week, The 49ers’ first opponent will be either the Rams or the Packers; the odds it’s the Packers? 14 percent.
Seattle Seahawks
A Packers loss would open the door for the Seattle Seahawks to squeeze into the playoffs with a win today, along with a loss by the Buccaneers or the New Orleans Saints. If the 7-seed Seahawks win their first game, they’ll head to San Francisco. One year after beating the Seahawks three times in the same season, the 49ers will be forced into a repeat scenario, but only at an 8-percent rate.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints’ playoff road to the Bay is similar to that of the Buccaneers. If the Saints are the unlikely NFC South champs, and all division winners win next week, the 49ers will play New Orleans in the second round. This scenario is a long-shot at 5 percent.
Dallas Cowboys
Like the Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys have a broad range of potential playoff paths. If the Cowboys lose their way back into the top wild-card spot, they’ll face the winner of the NFC South. If Dallas can then win on the road, and the two remaining division winners prevail, then yet another 49ers-Cowboys playoff game is on the horizon. But in the end, the odds are unlikely, at just 4 percent.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s technically possible for the 7-win Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. If they do, and then take a similar path as the one described above, San Francisco would be their second round opponent. It’s rather difficult to picture this scenario, which comes in at approximately 1 percent.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs, which would require a victory, and a lot of help–including losses by both the Packers and Seahawks, as well as one of the NFC South’s top-2 teams. If the Vikings are in, and then pull off the upset in the opening round, their next matchup would be the 49ers. Yes, the odds are more than zero, but just barely, at less than 1 percent.
Credit to nflverse for significant portions of code and data.
Thanks to Sebastian Carl, Ben Baldwin, Lee Sharpe, Tan Ho, and John Edwards.
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.
The San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday, guaranteeing a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage. The team still has one more game to play, a somewhat inconsequential clash with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams earned a playoff berth this weekend by defeating the New York Giants and witnessing the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Seattle Seahawks.
Able to bypass the first week of playoff games, the 49ers will await the weakest-seeded victor from the Wild Card Round.
Below are the current playoff standings with Week 17 in the books. This is what the NFC postseason picture would look like of the season
On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. With little at stake in their regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 18 provides an excellent opportunity for some ailing players, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, to rest and recover.
However, only some starters will get the week off entirely. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained this week that the 49ers still need to field a team against the Rams.
“When you give guys the game off, practice changes, too, and that can end up hurting guys a lot, and you end up just developing bad
The San Francisco 49ers have disclosed their quarterback strategy for the upcoming regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kyle Shanahan informed reporters that Brock Purdy will not play on Sunday, providing the quarterback a two-week break leading into the playoffs.
Earlier today, the Rams announced that Carson Wentz would start against the 49ers instead of Matthew Stafford. While San Francisco has secured the No. 1 seed in the postseason, Los Angeles will be seeded either sixth or seventh, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game.
“Brock’s the only guy for sure I know I don’t plan on playing,” Shanahan said.
That means it will be Sam
Safety Tashaun Gipson was on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s lengthy list of San Francisco 49ers players who will not practice on Wednesday, the first on-field session ahead of the team’s regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Rams. Gipson is sidelined with a quad strain and will not recover in time to play this weekend.
“Gip ended up—I think we got it yesterday—he had a quad strain, so that could be anywhere seven to 10 days,” Shanahan informed reporters. “So the odds—that can heal faster, too—but just with our situation, the odds aren’t there.”
The other 49ers players not expected to practice on Wednesday are defensive tackle Arik Armstead (foot, knee), running back Christian McCaffrey (calf), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), guard Jon
San Francisco, CA
Iran conflict disrupts flights out of SFO
San Francisco, CA
Hundreds Rally in San Francisco Against U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran | KQED
She acknowledged that Iranian Americans hold a range of political views, including some who support U.S. intervention, but said she believes the future of Iran should be determined by its people.
“The Iranian people in Iran can decide the future of their country,” she said. “War, I don’t think, is going to help.”
Speaking to the crowd, Mortazavi challenged what she described as a narrative that Iranians broadly support U.S. and Israeli military action.
“They want you to believe that every Iranian … is cheering on the United States and Israel,” she said. “That is unequivocally false.”
She urged attendees to continue organizing beyond the rally and announced plans for additional demonstrations.
Dina Saadeh, an organizer with the Palestinian Youth Movement, said multiple groups mobilized quickly in response to the strikes.
“I’m angered today,” Saadeh told KQED. “People here don’t want to see our country engaged in more endless war.”
Saadeh described the protest as part of a broader effort to oppose sanctions, military escalation and what she called U.S. imperialism. She said participants were calling on elected officials to redirect public funds toward domestic needs.
“People want money for jobs and education, not for war and occupation,” she said.
KQED’s María Fernanda Bernal contributed to this story.
San Francisco, CA
Sam Smith’s San Francisco Residency Charts New Course for the Castro
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Sam Smith has kicked off his residency at the Castro Theatre in San Francisco, with the singer’s 20-date stint helping to officially usher in a new era for the historic landmark.
First erected in 1922, the Castro closed in 2024 for a reported $41 million renovation project. But the century-old Spanish-style Baroque theatre is open for business — and music — once again, with its gilded ceiling and ornamental walls restored to its original design, while seating is now reconfigurable for different events, including 650 seats that can be removed to create more standing room space (like for Smith’s concert). More importantly, city officials hope the re-opening of the Castro Theatre will also help revive the predominantly queer neighborhood it sits in, which shares a name with the venerable venue.
“Do you guys realize how special this street is?” Smith asked the sold-out crowd, during night two of their residency last week. “I grew up in a village in the middle of f-ckin’ nowhere,” they shared. “I was the only gay in the village and yes I was very dramatic about it as well,” they added with a laugh.
“There is nothing like this street and nothing like the Castro and the community here,” Smith said. “I’ll never forget coming here when I was 20 years old, so reopening this theater now is such an honor.”
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Tickets to Smith’s Castro residency quickly sold out when the shows were first announced but you can still find stubs on sites like StubHub, Vivid Seats and SeatGeek. New users can use the promo code THR30 to save $30 on orders of $300 and up at VividSeats.com. SeatGeek customers can use promo code HOLLYWOOD10 to save $10 at SeatGeek.com.
Smith’s San Francisco stint follows their “To Be Free: New York City,” residency which took place last fall at Brooklyn’s historic Warsaw club. Other artists set to play at the Castro this spring include Father John Misty, José González, Santigold and Lucy Dacus. The Castro will also help celebrate the 50th anniversary of the LGBTQ-themed Frameline Film Festival this June.
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Castro Theatre Tickets on Vivid Seats
Smith’s residency runs until March 14.
According to tourism officials and local businesses, Smith’s new Castro residency and the reopening of the theatre has already helped to bring in a number of new visitors to the area. Mat Schuster, the executive chef and owner of long-time neighborhood fixture, Canela, says business has been “very busy” in the last few weeks, crediting Smith’s show with bringing out new diners to the Spanish restaurant, which has been on Market Street since 2011. Other local hotspots like wine bar Bar49, the San Francisco outpost of Hi Tops, and the women’s sports bar, Rikki’s (named after Gay Games Federation founder Rikki Streicher), were all packed on a recent evening following Smith’s Castro concert.
According to San Francisco Tourism, the reopening of The Castro Theatre is poised to deliver “meaningful economic gains” to the surrounding neighborhood, which some stats estimating that the venue will draw more than 200,000 visitors annually.
With the Castro Theatre now open again, local officials are looking ahead to other upcoming celebrations, including a planned reimagining of the Castro and Market Street intersection into The Memorial at Harvey Milk Plaza, honoring the first openly gay elected official in California (and the inspiration for the 2009 Sean Penn film). Milk’s legacy is already enshrined at the San Francisco airport of course, with terminal 1 at SFO renamed as the “Harvey Milk Terminal;” the new memorial is scheduled to be completed by 2028. The annual Castro Street Fair, meantime, a community street celebration founded by Harvey Milk in 1974, will take place on the first weekend of October.
The reopening of the Castro comes amidst a busy few months for San Francisco, which recently saw a number of athletes and celebrities in town for the Super Bowl. Steph Curry’s new speakeasy, The Eighth Rule, was among the hotspots over the big game weekend and the basketball star’s bourbon-forward bar continues to be a hot reservation in the city. Opened in the fall, the bar is tucked away in a nondescript hallway inside the Westin St. Francis hotel in Union Square, offering an intimate and exclusive setting for the Golden State Warriors point guard’s Gentleman’s Cut Bourbon, which can be ordered on its own or as part of a six-course omakase-style cocktail tasting (we loved the clarified coconut milk punch and the truffle-vanilla whiskey sour). Of course, guests can also order cocktails a la carte, choosing from different bourbons and whiskeys, plus a full selection of other spirits.
Next door to The Eighth Rule is Bourbon Steak San Francisco, the latest outpost of Chef Michael Mina’s award-winning steakhouse. The restaurant marks the celebrity chef’s return to the Westin St. Francis, where he opened his first eponymous restaurant in 2004. In addition to its selection of steaks, seafood and caviar offerings (like Mina’s famous “caviar twinkee”), this Bourbon Steak outpost offers a family-style dining experience for six people, available through advance reservations. This is the only Bourbon Steak location to offer this communal table format.
New this month is the highly-anticipated opening of JouJou, an elevated French brasserie concept from the owners of the two Michelin-starred Lazy Bear. Located in the city’s Design District, JouJou is poised to be the next celebrity hangout, with its ornate dining room and marble-topped counters setting the scene for steak frites and star sightings alike. As chef David Barzelay told the San Francisco Chronicle when asked about the inspiration for JouJou: “It always feels like you’re just in a place where it’s happening.”
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