Experts: Muni tax likely to pass; regional transit measure a toss-up

Even as voters cite affordability as their top concern, San Franciscans may still be willing to raise their own taxes.

Political experts say a proposed $183 million parcel tax to fund Muni is likely to pass with ease, highlighting the city’s enduring support for public transit. But a separate regional sales tax measure to fund BART, Muni, and 10 other Bay Area transit agencies faces a far more uncertain path. Both measures, slated for the November ballot, require a simple majority to pass.

Essentially, the pundits say, San Francisco voters are so tax-happy and engaged that even with a measure-heavy ballot, they’ll likely support the two measures regardless of affordability concerns. According to campaign expert Jason Overman, San Francisco has better voter turnout for off-cycle elections than other U.S. cities, meaning tax opponents will be less likely to steer the results.

Combine that with well-founded fears that the demise of public transit would lead to tougher commutes and freeway congestion, and you have the makings of a victory at the ballot box. 

“I don’t think a new tax [in San Francisco] has failed directly in years,” said political consultant Jim Ross.

However, few experts feel confident the regional tax measure will pass, as it must have the support of voters in five Bay Area counties. Contra Costa County, which is far less favorable to new taxes, was singled out by analysts. 

Contra Costa County has only once passed a sales tax to fund transportation, Measure J in 2004, according to John Whitehurst, a partner at BMWL Public Affairs. Measure J had a much higher two-thirds majority threshold.  

What experts are tracking as a signal for the transportation sales tax’s prospects is whether Contra Costa voters pass a sales tax (opens in new tab) of five-eighths of a cent in June. 

“I think we’re gonna get some tea leaves here to read in June,” Whitehurst said. 

What the Muni tax and regional measure have in common is that the consequences of degraded public transit are easy for voters across the socioeconomic spectrum to comprehend. Even if someone doesn’t use public transportation, worsening traffic on Bay Area freeways affects the people they rely on — like their children’s teachers or their employees.

“I think the transit stuff is much more visceral,” Overman said.

According to SF State political science professor Jason McDaniel, both efforts are bolstered by a widespread feeling among Democratic voters, who dominate the Bay Area, that turnout is key to taking back power from Republicans in Washington.

But McDaniel highlighted a latent risk of tax fatigue as public agencies continue to ask voters for funding. He pointed to a slice of affluent, liberal homeowners who generally back taxes for public services but may feel “cross‑pressured” by perceptions that government agencies and unions waste money.

“If I had to predict, I think these things are going to pass, but some of the support might be softer than what we’ve seen in past years,” McDaniel said. 

Sonoma State political science professor David McCuan said he’s cautiously optimistic about the passage of both measures but predicts that the margin of success will be narrow. A high turnout in November could be key to the success of the regional measure. 

“That puts the Bay Area regional measure in a place that is slightly better than a coin flip on the positive side,” he said. “But barely.”

McCuan noted that an effective campaign can shift voter support by roughly three to six percentage points in either direction.

On the parcel tax, that campaign appears to be in pole position. Mayor Daniel Lurie has made himself the face of the initiative, and it has broad-based support from the Board of Supervisors and a laundry list of labor groups. Early union support is a promising sign, as strong campaigns need funding and endorsements, and unions can help deliver both, McCuan said.

“All signs point to success, but there’s wiggle room within the margin of error,” he said.