To many observers it was a question not of whether but of when President Joseph Biden would bow out of the presidential race.

He did so Sunday and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, days after announcing he was ill with COVID-19 and three weeks after a debate performance so troubling it led to immediate calls for him to step aside.

Even with his endorsement of Harris, Biden’s departure leaves a gaping gap at the top of the Democratic ticket four months before the election.

It might also be the Democratic Party’s only chance at winning, said Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego.

“This is not what anyone in the Democratic party planned or wanted three, six or 12 months ago,” Kousser said.

The crux was last month’s presidential debate, where Biden at times struggled to speak in a coherent manner. “After that time, I think Democrats collectively decided that their only chance to move forward was with another candidate. This is not plan A or plan B,” he said. “But it gives Democrats hope of winning what they see as a historically crucial election.”

It also puts Democrats in a potentially precarious spot, said Carl Luna, a professor emeritus of political science at San Diego Mesa College.

“Now the ball is firmly in the Democrats’ court. What do they do with this moment? It’s an opportunity to rejuvenate the campaign and rally behind a standard-bearer who can take on Donald Trump in the fall. Or it could become a divisive event — which makes it that much easier for Donald Trump to win,” he said.

“Kamala Harris was in San Diego in 2016. debating opponents as she ran for U.S. Senate. (Hayne Palmour IV / San Diego Union-Tribune)Along with Harris, there is a broad field of other potential contenders, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Tom Shepard, a longtime San Diego political consultant who has worked for candidates in both parties, called Sunday’s announcement “an honorable decision by Biden and a necessary one for the Democratic Party to be competitive in November.” But to stay competitive, he said, the Democrats will have to iron out what he called “fundamental problems” with Harris’s candidacy.

“The Democratic Party, for all of its strengths, has over the last several decades kind of developed a perspective that is based on identity politics, and the reason that Kamala Harris was on the Democratic ticket as vice president is, at least in part, a symptom of that approach,” Shepard said.

In San Diego County, where 60 percent of voters chose Biden in 2020 and 37 percent voted for Trump, and throughout California, where the president won 63 percent of the vote, a number of local and state elected officials praised his decision.

“Joe Biden has always put the country first and he did so again today, after more than 50 years of tremendous service,” Rep. Adam Schiff, the party’s nominee for Senate, wrote. He added: “The stakes are high, and we must focus all our energy on electing Kamala Harris and defeating Donald Trump.

In a statement posted on X, formerly Twitter, San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria called Biden “a leader, patriot and true public servant who has always put the good of our country first” and said he agreed with the president’s decision to endorse Harris.

“She is ready to lead our country as our next President,” he wrote. “I supported her during her first Presidential campaign, and I am 1000% backing her during this one.”

County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican representing parts of North County, also took to X with a much different viewpoint. He contends Biden is “unable to fulfill his duties.”

In another post, he added, “The reality is, if Biden were up in the polls he would remain in the race. This isn’t about Biden’s cognitive decline which we’ve known for years. It’s about lagging poll numbers.”

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Bonsall, criticized Harris’s leadership, alongside Biden.

“We’ve had 4 years of Democratic chaos — at the border, in business, overseas, in our schools and on our streets. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris led all of it,” he wrote on X.

Among analysts, Biden’s departure is a political Rorschach test, with Democrats seeing it as the perfect opening to reinvigorate their party and align behind a younger candidate and Republicans seeing this as yet another step toward Trump’s inevitable victory.

Dan Rottenstreich, a prominent San Diego Democratic political consultant, said Biden’s withdrawal would ripple down the ballot in November and presented Democrats a perfect opportunity to refocus their energies.

“It’s a ten-pound weight off the shoulders of every Democrat running in a swing seat in California,” he said. “Joe Biden is easily the most effective Democratic President of our lifetimes, but the political debate was no longer where it needed to be — on the disaster and danger Donald Trump is for America.”

Having a woman at the top of the presidential ticket could, he said, “elevate abortion rights even further, which in almost all of pro-choice California would be welcome news.”

With Biden out, every prediction about the presidential race until now is also out the window, he said.

“It’s a brand new race now,” Rottenstreich said. “Democrats have a huge opportunity to reenergize the base, drive up Democratic turnout and unite the electorate against Donald Trump’s far-right agenda.”

Kousser, the UCSD professor, said the shake-up could pose a challenge for Trump, depending on whether the Democrats unite around a nominee.

“Donald Trump felt very comfortable running against Joe Biden,” he said. “I think the Republican Party clearly likes that matchup better than any other matchup. And this throws things wide open. I think if one candidate can generate momentum and keep it, I think the Democrats have a better chance at … threatening Donald Trump’s path to victory than they had just a few hours ago.”

Linda Lopez-Alvarez, the chair of the Escondido Republican Women headquarters, said she expected Biden’s departure, as did others at last week’s Republican National Convention, which she attended. Another sentiment she shared was gratitude — for Trump’s survival after a July 13 assassination attempt.

“I think everybody has the same consensus. We’re grateful that Donald Trump survived that attempt. I mean, that was by the grace of God,” she said.

Lopez-Alvarez said she expects Democrats will nominate Harris. “They’re in a pickle right now. Because we’re so close to the election. So that’s what they’re going to rally around,” she said. “I do believe Trump will win by a landslide.”

In the next four weeks, before the Democratic National Convention in August, Biden’s party will have to decide if it will coalesce around Harris or pick another star.

Luna said Biden’s departure, just after the Republican convention, “will focus things until mid-August on Democrats and take a lot of the oxygen out of the Trump campaign, because they’re not sure exactly who to run against.”

Kousser said that while a rapid whittling down of the candidate pool will be unusual, compared to the much longer runways of other elections, it’s not a first.

“While this will be absolutely a compressed process compared to everything we’ve seen in the modern era, this is not unprecedented. This is a return to the way that presidential candidates were determined for a century in American politics,” Kousser said.

Staff writers Gary Robbins, Emily Alvarenga and Michael Smolens contributed to this report.

Originally Published: July 21, 2024 at 5:54 p.m.